Speculation: 2019 NHL Draft thread

[Cush]

Brock's mock OHL Prospects: 2019 NHL Mock Draft

25. Washington Capitals - Jamieson Rees (Sarnia, OHL)
What? The Capitals take another OHL player? The team had ignored the league for so long before taking Kody Clark in the second last year. But Rees seems like the type of player that Washington would target to help them become more difficult to play against in the long run. There are some durability and size concerns with Rees, given his tenacious style of play, but he can have such a positive impact on the ice (see this year's U18's) and possesses way more offensive upside than some people give him credit for.

Has Suzuki going 27th, & Brink, Poulin, Robertson, McMichael, Hoglander, Tracey and Pelletier all in the 2nd round

 

[Langway]

HockeyProspect has Seider at 10. There's a lot of talk he could potentially go that high (or higher) ala Broberg as one of the best D after Byram. I think those two are better than Soderstrom/York/Harley anyhow.

Brock's mock is different and I like it. I think he has Broberg/Seider where they'll end up going. Rees was arguably Canada's best player at the U18s and a player you could see digging in during the playoffs. Still, at his size there's risk whether he can translate that competitiveness as well against men. IMO he'll be a better pro than Fabbri has turned out and I could see him being in the mix at 25, esp. if they're less concerned about ultimate finesse ability and more locked in on character/competitiveness. I'm not sure Grewe or Leason are first rounders but the rest is sensible. Someone is likely to take Brink in the first round--and perhaps fairly early--but it would be tempting to pass given just how far he has to go physically. When would he be fit to battle adequately in the playoffs? 2022? 2023? Does the lack of physical maturity also add potential of being an eventual signing risk?

I'd be open-minded about anyone that isn't a defensive-minded LD with the first two picks. It seems like there's roughly a tier encompassing 21-40ish, which is why a trade down has appeal. There could be 40-45 players that in theory could be deemed first round talents and that's pretty rare. It could also be a statement that the 21-31 group hasn't necessarily separated themselves from the pack and that it's very much a matter of taste after 20ish. (McKenzie's final list Monday after next may help some, though last year it didn't turn out to be a great indicator and may not again.) There are a lot of ways they could play things. Ideally they go forward with their first two picks but RD could be a priority at 56. The Kelowna RD Thomson & Korczak are likely gone by then but McCarthy, Helleson, Attard or Spence could be options. It might be a bit early on Spence but the other three could be BPA in that range.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I like reading your stuff.....no idea if you’re right, but I like to pretend you are at least.


I think the Caps lean HEAVILY towards BPA. They want to hit on every 1st rounder. Thus, it makes all theses projections tougher because it depends on who falls to them....

 

[Langway]

Well, I write a lot so some is bound to be accurate. I try to compile as much info as I can to narrow things down and get a lay of the land. Like you said, you never know how the draft will fall. Players slide all the time for whatever reason, much of the time to no fault of the player and just circumstance in teams having one player higher.

They do lean heavily toward BPA and typically that revolves around hockey sense, skill and skating. I keyed on Alexeyev last year relatively late but that was a little easier given his raw upside vs. other LD. This year I'm not sure there are clear separating qualities after perhaps Brink, Tomasino & Suzuki. (Even that could be debatable.) Beyond that there are a lot of forwards that have scoring-line upside but also various issues to sort through. They may not need to go any deeper than those three but if they do it seems more a matter of taste and the particular qualities they'd want in a scoring-line player. Do they want someone that could more easily do some of the little things, whether it's physicality, defense and PKing as well? Part of my thinking in elevating Tomasino & Suzuki is less all of those areas as positional versatility between C/W. From an overall mix standpoint it's probably wise to consider more of a blend in a player rather than just a more generic finesse player like Burakovsky that has the tools but is no sure thing to put them together. If so, then Rees & McMichael could become prime considerations along with Hoglander & Poulin. Tracey or Afanasyev seem more along the lines of a Burakovsky, though Tracey has a little more substance to him at times. Character probably ought to be a big priority I think. Not determinative but they're going to need players that can be relied upon and ideally in every facet. It's why I can see teams liking Rees. We've seen players like Norris & Frederic go in the first round for much the same reason.

 

[Langway]

Averaged rankings has 21-25 as Kaliyev, MRobertson, Brink, Poulin & Heinola, although Knight gets knocked down somewhat by services that rank goaltenders separately.

 

[peterthegreat12]

I’m going to laugh if Moritz Seider is there at 25 and the Caps take him.

 

[Frank JT]

HI! I'm a Canadiens fan and I'm asking other teams fans what are the first need you have to adress with your first pick. The Canadiens needs to find a winger (powerforward or goal scorer) and secondly, a top4 D. Cheers!

 

[Langway]

HI! I'm a Canadiens fan and I'm asking other teams fans what are the first need you have to adress with your first pick. The Canadiens needs to find a winger (powerforward or goal scorer) and secondly, a top4 D. Cheers!

I don't know about have to but they need to come away with more strong scoring-line upside wingers throughout the draft. RD is a somewhat secondary near-term need but less likely at 25 barring Seider or Soderstrom sliding. I'd prefer a power forward or goal-scorer as well but they're so thin organizationally that anyone with strong skill, hockey sense and pace would be a welcome addition.

They'll stick to BPA but I'd at least hope they've more seriously prioritized scrutinizing higher upside forwards overall than outcomes indicate the past few years. There will be some good defensemen available at both early picks but the pipeline has become so unbalanced that it's going to be increasingly hard to just blindly take defensemen and rationalize it by believing they'll be able to trade them for comparable forwards in the future.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The whole trade young D for forwards is a tough strategy to actually follow through with IMO.

Most likely any D prospects other teams would be willing to trade a top-6 forward for, the Caps will want to hold onto.

For all we know, they already scrutinize higher upside forwards and just don’t like them often.

For example...last 5 years....I wonder how many scoring top-6 forwards even exist that were taken let’s say in the 20’s or later range....I’m guessing low returns.

 

[Langway]

Well, last year it's hard to fathom they came away most impressed by Kody Clark compared to about a half dozen options that presented more upside. That was something of a Tyler Bertuzzi type stylistic hope pick down the line and a year removed it hasn't looked brilliant. Maybe it will. Too soon to tell but I thought Sutter was the better prospect at the time and little has changed. It's pretty debatable whether Clark should even turn pro and go to Hershey next season as a late birthday. It's probably better for him to return to Ottawa, take it a bit more slowly and have a year playing a more pronounced all situations role in the OHL.

They've morphed more recently toward more of a bottom six grinding type preference in forwards when they have taken them. They've taken some shots on options like Marthinsen and Florchuk late but they weren't overly impressive players from a pure skill standpoint either. One can always go back and point out options they've missed. Every scouting department has them and they're no different. In the Johansen draft they had to have loads of intel on Sam Steel as a Regina guy and passed. Or DeBrincat. It's been five years since they took a skilled forward relatively high. You'd expect that to finally change but...who knows. They could just as easily go with Rees or Beecher as more of a premium checker type. Or pass on a Brink for a more physically mature option like Hoglander or Poulin. Part of the problem is their CHL scouting of forwards in general I think. Historically they stick with Europeans and to some extent WHLers so if you'd have to bet the smart money is probably on Hoglander or perhaps Tracey.

One could make a pretty good case that since McPhee left and Mahoney has had maybe a little more free reign to run the draft they've neither executed as well generally from a value standpoint nor drafted with priorities or needs in mind. They've just taken the best player available, often paying a premium to land particular targets and believed any gluts could be dealt with later. It's not a huge deal as-is but they're going to need to get back to being able to find strong offensive contributors on the cheap. There's incredibly value to be had in that area that from more of an analytics standpoint makes their drafts post-McPhee look fairly questionable thus far. They've managed to do well picking up Connolly but can't rely on pro scouting to consistently make those cap-saving finds up front. Mahoney needs to wow again IMO or else I'd have some concern in how they're going to navigate some of the trickier situations they'll likely find themselves in the next five years or so.

 

[Hivemind]

I fully believe in picking the BPA regardless of need or stylistic concerns, but the fact their BPAdar has pointed so far away from the skilled forwards since 2015 does cause some natural questions to arise. And I have very significant gripes with their asset management in the draft itself, namely with trading up after the first round and the types of targets they identify as being worth trading up for and the situations in which they execute those trades. Simply having a few more forward prospects, even as longshots, in the system would do wonders for organizational depth. Sure almost all later round prospects miss, but having another couple AJF/Gersich/Barber/Malenstyn-types in the system would do wonders for providing potential depth options and helping Hershey field a competitive roster. Maybe none of them pan out as legitimate NHLers, but if you get enough, hopefully you hit on one or two.

 

[Kuz]

The whole trade young D for forwards is a tough strategy to actually follow through with IMO.

Most likely any D prospects other teams would be willing to trade a top-6 forward for, the Caps will want to hold onto.

For all we know, they already scrutinize higher upside forwards and just don’t like them often.

For example...last 5 years....I wonder how many scoring top-6 forwards even exist that were taken let’s say in the 20’s or later range....I’m guessing low returns.

2018 is to early to judge. 2017 we didnt have a pick before the 4th round, but if we look at 2016 there where good forward choices available. Steel is trending to be a top 6 center and was drafted 3oth while Caps drafted Johansen as number 28. You also had De Brincat who got questioned because of size and was a high risk big reward prospect. In 15 the 3 next picks after Samsonov was Boeser, Konecny and Roslovic. Boeser is already a top line player. Konecny top 6 while Roslovic looks like a future 2nd line C. You also had Aho go early 2nd round that year. It's pretty much an elite forward going in the 20s every year.

 

[Capsman]

2018 is to early to judge. 2017 we didnt have a pick before the 4th round, but if we look at 2016 there where good forward choices available. Steel is trending to be a top 6 center and was drafted 3oth while Caps drafted Johansen as number 28. You also had De Brincat who got questioned because of size and was a high risk big reward prospect. In 15 the 3 next picks after Samsonov was Boeser, Konecny and Roslovic. Boeser is already a top line player. Konecny top 6 while Roslovic looks like a future 2nd line C. You also had Aho go early 2nd round that year. It's pretty much an elite forward going in the 20s every year.

I wonder if the Caps’ brass is thinking along the lines of goalies and defensemen taking longer to develop, so they went all in for a few years to let them ripen and now will go all in on forwards? Wishful thinking, I know.

 

[Langway]

NHL.com's top 10 left wings. Afanasyev profile. I probably ought to be mentioning Afanasyev more. He seems a bit more raw than the profiles may lead one to believe but the frame, shot mentality and heritage make him a relatively likely candidate.

 

[Sam Spade]

I will be shocked if the Caps take a Dman at 25. They have to realize how thin they are up front.

 

[Makaveli]

I had the pleasure of being the Caps GM over on the Mock Draft Forum. What do you guys think of these picks? What would you change if you had the chance?

1(25): Samuel Poulin, LW/RW, Sherbrooke (QMJHL)
2(56): Artemi Knyazev, LHD, Chicoutimi (QMJHL)
4(118): Mikhail Abramov, C, Victoriaville (QMJHL)
5(129): Patrick Moynihan, RW, USA NTDP (USHL)
7(211): Yevgeni Oksentyuk, LW/RW, Soligorsk (Belarus)

 

[hb12xchamps]

I had the pleasure of being the Caps GM over on the Mock Draft Forum. What do you guys think of these picks? What would you change if you had the chance?

1(25): Samuel Poulin, LW/RW, Sherbrooke (QMJHL)
2(56): Artemi Knyazev, LHD, Chicoutimi (QMJHL)
4(118): Mikhail Abramov, C, Victoriaville (QMJHL)
5(129): Patrick Moynihan, RW, USA NTDP (USHL)
7(211): Yevgeni Oksentyuk, LW/RW, Soligorsk (Belarus)

I’m not into the draft prospects like others are but as soon as I see LHD I cringe. Our pipeline is stacked with LHD as is and very weak at RHD. Just my only gripe

 

[Langway]

I will be shocked if the Caps take a Dman at 25. They have to realize how thin they are up front.

I still wouldn't pass on Seider or Soderstrom, though. It's unlikely but they do need RD and those two have the clearest top 4 potential among RD. I don't think we can assume any grand strategy in past years beyond sticking to their board.

I've come around to Poulin since you last posted so I'd be fine with that. I'd still hope for Korczak or a similarly strong RD or forward over LD for the most part. LD and goaltender are the least of their needs organizationally. The other forward picks are pretty good.

 

[Langway]

Further on Poulin...I'm becoming increasingly partial to either him, Hoglander or maybe Rees. Those guys battle and get their noses dirty whereas there's some question in that regard for most of the other options likely to go in that range. That can certainly develop in time as guys fill out but the more inherent instinct for that sort of play largely revolves around those three in that range. Size/height are partial concerns with Hoglander & Rees so I think if you're looking for a power forward and battler with upside it's mostly just Poulin (barring Lavoie or Kaliyev perhaps sliding significantly and even with them it's more based on their frames than on-ice identity).

Afanasyev has the frame to eventually play a power game but doesn't play that way currently and his playmaking and defense are similarly immature. He's more of a one-trick pony whereas Poulin needs to get more explosive but most everything else is further along. He might not be the most glamorous pick but in terms of big boy hockey I think there's some real value there. Picking him might sacrifice some theoretical upside compared to some others that are better skaters currently but there's a pretty high floor I think. If obtaining pieces for another deep run is a high priority then they could do a lot worse IMO.

 

[Cush]

Different type of "Do Not Draft" list: https://thehockeywriters.com/2019-nhl-do-not-draft-list/
Must Haves: https://thehockeywriters.com/2019-nhl-draft-must-haves/

 

[Futures Passed]

Well, last year it's hard to fathom they came away most impressed by Kody Clark compared to about a half dozen options that presented more upside. That was something of a Tyler Bertuzzi type stylistic hope pick down the line and a year removed it hasn't looked brilliant. Maybe it will. Too soon to tell but I thought Sutter was the better prospect at the time and little has changed. It's pretty debatable whether Clark should even turn pro and go to Hershey next season as a late birthday. It's probably better for him to return to Ottawa, take it a bit more slowly and have a year playing a more pronounced all situations role in the OHL.

They've morphed more recently toward more of a bottom six grinding type preference in forwards when they have taken them. They've taken some shots on options like Marthinsen and Florchuk late but they weren't overly impressive players from a pure skill standpoint either. One can always go back and point out options they've missed. Every scouting department has them and they're no different. In the Johansen draft they had to have loads of intel on Sam Steel as a Regina guy and passed. Or DeBrincat. It's been five years since they took a skilled forward relatively high. You'd expect that to finally change but...who knows. They could just as easily go with Rees or Beecher as more of a premium checker type. Or pass on a Brink for a more physically mature option like Hoglander or Poulin. Part of the problem is their CHL scouting of forwards in general I think. Historically they stick with Europeans and to some extent WHLers so if you'd have to bet the smart money is probably on Hoglander or perhaps Tracey.

One could make a pretty good case that since McPhee left and Mahoney has had maybe a little more free reign to run the draft they've neither executed as well generally from a value standpoint nor drafted with priorities or needs in mind. They've just taken the best player available, often paying a premium to land particular targets and believed any gluts could be dealt with later. It's not a huge deal as-is but they're going to need to get back to being able to find strong offensive contributors on the cheap. There's incredibly value to be had in that area that from more of an analytics standpoint makes their drafts post-McPhee look fairly questionable thus far. They've managed to do well picking up Connolly but can't rely on pro scouting to consistently make those cap-saving finds up front. Mahoney needs to wow again IMO or else I'd have some concern in how they're going to navigate some of the trickier situations they'll likely find themselves in the next five years or so.

Clark definitely had a pretty disappointing season. I don’t really want any of their picks from last season to move to Hershey next season other than AA honestly. I really like Fehervary, but it seems like there is not enough playing time to be had for the D on Hershey at this point unless they trade somebody. I guess Lewington could graduate depending on wether or not there is a spot available.

I don’t really want players to go to Hershey unless they’re ready to thrive there. Ideally, I like to see players dominate at the level they’re at before they graduate. Clark definitely did not do that last season. His stats didn’t even improve.

Sadly, I think Snively is the only Caps forward prospect with second line upside at the moment and that’s a long shot to say the least. Gersich was terrible last season. They have a ton of bottom six forward prospects, but that’s it.

 

[Cush]

Puistola? Yeah, we know that won't happen

 

[Langway]

Sam Cosentino AMA:

In terms of trade-downs, I don't see it coming into play until at least pick #14 with Arizona. After that, probably not again until pick #23 with NYI, and any team after that becomes a real trade down candidate. I believe many teams will have the same 22 players in varying order. After that, lists open wide until 60 and that is why I believe teams after 22 will trade down. For Chayka, at #14 I do believe there is a possibility there....

Seider, awesome young man.....I think he's one of the highest risers in this class, I think he is inside of 20....

Re: picking at 20 & Podkolzin sliding: I don't think he gets that far and if he does, it will be a steal.....Brink, Harley, Lavoie, Heinola, maybe even Leason there....

Re: Hoglander:physically could do it now....i think it's the production that holds him back....as a potential 1st rd, you want him to produce and I don't think his game is there just yet....

I think San Jose tries to get into the first round, Toronto will be interesting especially if one of their rostered forwards is in play....teams from 25 on may be willing to move back....

Re: potential sliders: Podkolzin, Kaliyev, Lavoie....

I think character is still undervalued......I think we will see a resurgence in the size discussion based on STL winning the Cup.

Nothing too revealing but he tends to be pretty plugged in. It seems he's added to my typical consensus top 20 by maybe adding Tomasino and I guess Brink with Heinola perhaps not too far behind.

 

[Cush]

Drafting For Need vs BPA: https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-draft-strategies-best-available-vs-need/

 

[Langway]

Prospect Mailbag: Podkolzin vs. Broberg, the Veleno drop and more - TheHockeyNews

If Podkolzin starts to fall past 15 could you see a team like the Caps move up to get – ECB, @bce1801

Based off my enthusiasm from the previous question, I bet you can guess my answer: Yes! Especially since the Caps have had such great success with Russians.

I have to ask who the Avs are rumored to take at No. 4. Plus any bold predictions on who might be a surprise early pick like Barrett Hayton was last year? – Jackie, @tigervixxxen

I don’t have any intel on Colorado, unfortunately (and I am loathe to believe anything ‘leaked’ leading up to the draft), but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them grab Bowen Byram if he’s there. As for bold predictions, I’ll say Ville Heinola. I don’t see the Finnish defenseman going as high as Hayton (fifth overall), but I could see a team jumping up in the 10-15 range for him. Multiple scouts described Heinola as a “poor man’s Miro Heiskanen,” so there’s obviously a lot of potential there.

Which prospect could have the Joe Veleno fall this year? – JJ Hanke, @JJ_Hanke

I’ll go back to Veleno’s QMJHL for this one and say Raphael Lavoie. I love him, but I had a ‘Q’ exec say something fascinating to me about him this year: “Some NHL teams want him, other teams want someone else to draft him.” Personally, I think Lavoie’s playoff run with the Halifax Mooseheads should put to bed the worries about inconsistency, but that’s just my opinion. If he should slide from the middle of the first to the end, it could be a steal. Just like Veleno was for the Red Wings.

I keep seeing that Ethan Keppen is a “sleeper.” At what point is he not a sleeper if everyone thinks he’s a sleeper? Do you think there’s a chance he’ll be a 2nd-3rd rounder? – Colton Hunter, @ColtonHunter17

Ha ha! That’s a pretty good point about “popular” sleepers. I see Keppen as a third-rounder with the potential to go in the second if a team loves him. Keppen is one to keep an eye out for because he has power forward potential and that’s hard to find these days. A guy who can score and impose his will on a game physically? Everybody is looking for that next Tom Wilson. Whether or not Keppen can turn into a Wilson clone is up in the air, but for teams looking for that combination, he’ll be a popular option.

I wouldn't mind Keppen at 56, particularly if they're all-in on the heavy game and other options like Foote and Grewe are gone. Hamaliuk could be another option along those lines.