Speculation: 2019 NHL Draft thread

[brachyrynchos]

I wonder if New Jersey would be interested in Niskanen, and if they feel like they're close enough to contending to justify give up picks for a veteran. I know they play a fast game, which isn't Nisky's strength anymore, but he can still move well enough to provide some stability and skill to their 2nd or 3rd pairing.

They have a pretty young D, not much in the way of right-D prospects that would be blocked, and plenty of cap space to absorb his contract for 2 more years.

I don't know what a decent trade would look like. Obviously they won't give up their first overall, but maybe 2 of their 2nd rounders, a 2nd and a 3rd, or some other combination of picks and a middling prospect. I'm bad at gauging trade values.

Mods, if more appropriate, feel free to move this to the Speculation thread.

Devils have the cap space for Niskanen, and would be a good addition to their lineup. I haven't looked to see who they have playing the right side, but he'd certainly be a good vet for their team.

 

[Hivemind]

Devils have the #1 pick and a slew of lower picks. They're set up well to rebuild. I would be surprised if they deviate from that plan at this point.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Devils have the #1 pick and a slew of lower picks. They're set up well to rebuild. I would be surprised if they deviate from that plan at this point.

They also have Taylor Hall to please. I don't think he'll be satisfied with being a part of another rebuild

 

[Langway]

The Devils have somewhere around $35M in cap space and probably will make at least some win-now moves to further persuade Hall to stay. They already have Severson, Vatanen & Santini on the right side, though.

Anaheim, Detroit (they were originally interested + Yze liked him in TB), Dallas (again), maybe Edmonton (if they clear cap), Florida (if bigger targets missed) or Toronto (if Zaitsev isn't deemed too similar) stand out as better fits. Teams with cap space to burn should eventually be able to maximize it for the more premium players available. Has Niskanen maintained that level of value or would taking back salary make it problematic?

More picks would be nice and perhaps doable for Burakovsky but I'm not sure it's a must. I wouldn't move down at either of their first two picks unless they like this year's depth more than I do. I've warmed to it but they need high-end talent over depth. More picks could allow them to target more high-end boom/bust types but I'm not sure moving down would be worth it. Keep the two picks, target skill and then target more upside with the later three and any others acquired.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

They also have Taylor Hall to please. I don't think he'll be satisfied with being a part of another rebuild

He has one year left on his deal. If they did decided to lean into the rebuild they could easily move him for a nice return. (This is what they should do).

 

[brachyrynchos]

Devils have the #1 pick and a slew of lower picks. They're set up well to rebuild. I would be surprised if they deviate from that plan at this point.

I think Shero said in the last few months that he feels New Jersey is ready to compete, and that was before winning the lottery. They definitely are in a great position either way, build their prospect pool or use the picks as bargaining chips. Santini, Severson, and Vatanen are right handed, Niskanen would be an upgrade for them. Greene (L) is UFA in July, and while he was their captain I'm not sure if they bring him back. ( Butcher and Carrick play on the left?).
I know it's secondhand talk, but a good amount of Devils writers and bloggers up here are talking about the need to bring in more talent, I think Niskanen would be a really good option for them if such a scenario comes into play, a team that wants to start winning gets a player that has in good environments.

 

[Random schmoe]

Thanks, Langer.

This is why relying on open source doc information can be dangerous. Vatanen is listed as a Left D in the places I checked, with CapFriendly showing our old friend Connor Carrick as the 3rd Right D on their depth chart.

The Devils have somewhere around $35M in cap space and probably will make at least some win-now moves to further persuade Hall to stay. They already have Severson, Vatanen & Santini on the right side, though.
<snip>

 

[Hivemind]

Vatanen shoots right and plays the right side opposite of Will Butcher or Mirco Mueller.

The Devils may make some win-now moves, but I don't think they're going to doll out serious futures to do it. They're more likely to expend their cap space as their primary liquid asset, via UFA or taking on unwanted contracts from other teams. As Langway mentioned, they have a buttload of cap space and not many free agents of note that they have to sign (pretty much just Zacha, Butcher, and a bunch of depth guys). Unless Niskanen fits the mold of a "dump em" guy for the Capitals (and I'm skeptical management has soured on him that much), I'd be surprised if he ends up in NJ.

I could see them having some interest in Burakovsky or Connolly (although I doubt they'd pay much for Conno's UFA rights).

 

[brachyrynchos]

Thanks for the clarification and correction regarding who plays what side with the Devils, and for the great input and opinions.
With expansion coming up, a few major expiring contracts on the way, mileage on the core, and "not enough" in the pipeline... maybe it's worth looking into clearing out cap space to teams that are willing to move picks that have a need for what WSH could be willing to trade?

 

[Langway]

Craig Button mock draft. Podkolzin drops considerably down to 13. I don't get the Crouse comparison at all but his skating certainly seemed less explosive than it was earlier in the season. Might be he was playing through something and, if so, someone could get a real steal. Other surprises: Caufield at 5, Tomasino 18, McMichael 19 and Seider at 26. Seider ought to go higher and I'm sure he'll rise as he continues to prove himself at the WC in front of scouts. Matthew Robertson is mocked to the Caps and that would be a very redundant type pick. Heinola I could see because of his offensive upside or even Kolyachonok because of his all-around sense in comparison but not so much Robertson. Robertson or Vlasic in the first round I wouldn't get at all. Even someone like Bjornfot would make more sense. I don't know if Rees presents enough upside but he did show very strong work ethic from the center position at the U18s.

 

[Hivemind]

Matthew Robertson is mocked to the Caps and that would be a very redundant type pick.

Caps picking a 6'3" WHL defenseman would also be about the least surprising thing ever.

 

[usiel]

How deep is the draft into the 2nd round? Not really excited but many of the prospects past 20 so maybe a year to pick up a couple of 2nds.

 

[Langway]

How deep is the draft into the 2nd round? Not really excited but many of the prospects past 20 so maybe a year to pick up a couple of 2nds.

I think it's pretty decent through the second round. Players like Puistola, Holmstrom, Pelletier, Beecher, Nick Robertson and Hogstrom could go early-to-mid second and still offer fair upside (to the point of becoming their best forward prospect...even if it's not saying much). It would make sense if they don't absolutely love the prime options and really like the secondary field overall. Some teams may look to move up for one of the secondary D like Heinola, Kolyachonok or Thomson if a run gets going. Detroit & New Jersey have three second round picks and could prefer quality over quantity and one of those D. Carolina also owns 36+37 and another late second and may also prefer quality over quantity (esp. now that their first pick will be between 28-31).

Future cap management makes moving down for roughly comparable talent and more quality depth a sound practice if possible but there could be teams in front of them like NSH that don't have a second that look to move down. It can also be hard to pull off being at the mercy of your board not getting slashed while dropping down so they'd have to be real comfortable with both the field and their read of how things may unfold. They could also look to move up using 56 or other assets to get into the 20 range. That could make sense for someone like Lavoie if he slides and they think they can develop his game. We won't get much of an indication how they view things until maybe the combine but more likely the week of the draft. By that point, it's possible they'll have acquired more picks anyway. Still, I think one of Leason, Brink, Suzuki or Poulin being available lines up pretty well with what they tend to want in a first rounder. Tomasino, Dorofeyev, Tracey or Afanasyev could as well if they're believers. (THN has that second group of four in their second round FWIW.) I don't know if there's a Kuznetsov level talent at 25 per se but there will be plenty of middle sixers with pace and upside. They should be able to get another decent skilled forward at 56 if they want. I can see a case for moving down but I think Leason or Brink in particular ought to present enough upside to go stay put. If they're gone, though, I could see it becoming muddier. They traded down when they took Johansen and something similar is at least possible depending on how the four picks or so before theirs where it opens up happen to fall.



Have to think he's making a case to go top 20. I'm not sure Soderstrom is any better. He could be a huge riser as a righty with that skating/size combination.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Kakko is really good. He's going to be a pain in the ass on the Rangers

 

[Langway]

Leason is off to the Memorial Cup after a G7 OT win last night. Kody Clark's team lost in six to Guelph. Rouyn Noranda and host Halifax (Lavoie) round out the field. That may be a crucial event for Leason and whether he's an option at 25 or not. Really curious whether teams ding him for being two years older. He doesn't produce all that glamorously but he does produce nonetheless. Will teams see top six upside? I'm not sure his skating is explosive enough that they will without question and if they do it's likely as more of a complimentary piece. Still, he could make for at least a decent 3RW so the fit could line up for the Caps if Connolly is out of the picture. He'll need AHL time most likely and that shouldn't be the mentality behind the pick but I could see him being a decent marriage between upside and floor provided they don't believe he's maxed out.

I'd still prefer Brink, even if he's probably around two seasons away. Ideally, someone with a high degree of skating, sense, compete and upside would be the pick but I'm not sure there's an ideal blend among the likely candidates. Even Lavoie has some questions about his IQ, consistency and off puck play so after that very top group (ending with, say, Krebs) there's going to be questions involved with anyone. Whoever has the best foundation among goal-scorers makes sense. After Brink, it may be Leason but probably only if they believe he's still got room for growth. It could also be Tomasino, Poulin or McMichael. Or Puistola. Sure, he's Finnish but they do tend to go European and he may be the best among them from that standpoint.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

The Guelph top line of Suzuki (VGK Rd1 pick traded to Montreal), Ratcliffe (Philadelphia Rd2 pick) and Entwistle (Arizona Rd3 pick traded to Chicago) are evidently quite good.

 

[peterthegreat12]

Leason is off to the Memorial Cup after a G7 OT win last night. Kody Clark's team lost in six to Guelph. Rouyn Noranda and host Halifax (Lavoie) round out the field. That may be a crucial event for Leason and whether he's an option at 25 or not. Really curious whether teams ding him for being two years older. He doesn't produce all that glamorously but he does produce nonetheless. Will teams see top six upside? I'm not sure his skating is explosive enough that they will without question and if they do it's likely as more of a complimentary piece. Still, he could make for at least a decent 3RW so the fit could line up for the Caps if Connolly is out of the picture. He'll need AHL time most likely and that shouldn't be the mentality behind the pick but I could see him being a decent marriage between upside and floor provided they don't believe he's maxed out.

I'd still prefer Brink, even if he's probably around two seasons away. Ideally, someone with a high degree of skating, sense, compete and upside would be the pick but I'm not sure there's an ideal blend among the likely candidates. Even Lavoie has some questions about his IQ, consistency and off puck play so after that very top group (ending with, say, Krebs) there's going to be questions involved with anyone. Whoever has the best foundation among goal-scorers makes sense. After Brink, it may be Leason but probably only if they believe he's still got room for growth. It could also be Tomasino, Poulin or McMichael. Or Puistola. Sure, he's Finnish but they do tend to go European and he may be the best among them from that standpoint.

Brink please.

 

[CapsJunkie]

I'm hoping for McMichael, or Pavel Dorofeyev

 

[Langway]

Pronman's top 107. Hoglander & Puistola are in his top 20. I think he undersells Kolyachonok & Korczak considerably, in each case arguing a lack of offensive upside may keep them from being NHLers. But when has that actually happened when a defenseman has the skating to keep up with NHLers and reads the play well? It's more a matter of eventual upside and even then strong decision-making often makes up for just so-so offensive skills. Yet he also has Vlasic in the top 25 so...shrug. I often don't get his logic. He's becoming a bit less one-dimensional as an evaluator but still seems to put too much stock in flashes of potential. Hence Broberg also being top 10...who I like...but not to that extent in this draft

Leason hasn't helped his stock much in the Memorial Cup so far. Two games, two losses, zero points and a -3. He's had some chances but has struggled to dictate, esp. often in transition or just generally taking the game over. Again, I think they'd have to believe he's a late bloomer with further room for growth to take him at 25 because he's still got some pace concerns. He's a bigger body guy and they take time but I'm less convinced he ought to be squarely in the mix. Maybe he's just running out of gas but the increase in pace has been problematic. They need a win tonight over Guelph or they're done.

I've come around on Suzuki as an option if he's still there since there are a load of tools to work with. I suspect he probably won't be so it's still mainly Brink as a target but Tomasino also provides a strong floor and positional versatility. After that there could be half a dozen or more forwards depending on what exactly they're going for. So I might at least consider moving down if they don't have a strong conviction about anyone. I'm not sure I'd have one vs. another top 50 pick and picking five spots or so later or whatever it might be.

 

[Langway]

Another game, another loss and another relatively ineffective game for Leason with no points once again. PA mixed up the lines eventually but to little effect. Although he had some chances, beyond the lack of production it was concerning how often he had his shots blocked. He was credited with eight shots in this game but it seemed like he had a load more blocked through the three games (he was credited with four in the other two games). Often he'd skate into the zone, shoot and it's off the D's shin pads and over with. He does some little things well but he didn't safely look like a first rounder in the three games. PA struggled overall with the pace but the Sharks pick Gregor was much more effective (even if an overager).

So with more data on Leason/Seider some minor tier shuffling...
Tier One (11): Hughes, Kakko, Byram, Turcotte, Boldy, Cozens, Dach, Caufield, Zegras, Podkolzin, Krebs
Tier Two (9): Kaliyev, Broberg, Newhook, Knight, Lavoie, Seider, Harley, York, Soderstrom
Tier Three (12): Brink, Tomasino, Suzuki, Tracey, Dorofeyev, Poulin, Puistola, Heinola, Leason, Afanasyev, Kolyachonok, Thomson

Seider up to tier two & Suzuki into the mix in three. Dorofeyev as a worst-case is not too bad. I'm not entirely sold on him, Tracey or Suzuki but they're probably the highest upside forwards left after Brink & Tomasino, even if they have some questions about competitiveness currently. Heinola likely has the best chance being off the board and pushing another forward down. I could get behind trading down if they really like the secondary forward group overall but don't have a clear favorite at that pick. Chances are they'll have someone targeted but maybe they view the likes of Rees, Bjornfot, Beecher, Johnson, McMichael, NRobertson, Pelletier, Holmstrom, Hoglander, Nikolayev or Mastrosimone as equivalent talents. Some of those players are very likely in the mix for the first round among some teams. I'm not sure anyone after Suzuki in that third tier is necessarily a lock to go in the first round aside from Heinola so it may really be a matter of taste once the early 20's come around.

 

[Cush]

Corey really likes the smaller guys. Definitely find it hard to get into the draft these days. Not because of where they're picking, but due to recent history. I get BPA and all, but at some point they have to start restocking the forward ranks, and not just 3rd/4th liner types.

 

[Langway]

Brock has his final OHL rankings out over on his site. His concerns re: Suzuki are why I've waffled on him. He's a really hard player to figure out and hard to bang the table for. It makes me wonder if they wouldn't indeed pull a Josh Norris/Trent Frederic and go with a more competitive type bottom sixer with upside if they're not entirely sold on the more skilled but to this point fairly inconsistent options. Rees or Beecher would be the main options for that where they may bring similar energy/PK/forechecking qualities that endeared them to Hagelin (Rees especially). That's not an ideal expenditure at 25 but I could see them valuing a naturally competitive player that would be less of a passenger risk potentially come playoff time (and, really, that's what mostly matters). Beecher to this point is more inconsistent to be in that category but when he's on he can be a real factor. A little more here at McKeen's on the top six OHL forwards.

It's not easy finding real clean high upside forwards at the end of the first round. They've had some success but it's been a while. Maybe they end up believing in someone like Dorofeyev. Tracey also has many key attributes suggesting high upside if all goes right but none are without some concerns. After Krebs and maybe Seider & Knight, everyone has some crucial work to do to to maximize their potential. That's normal but it does make it exceedingly tricky to key on targets, esp. without detailed insight into character and the interview process. I get BPA but there's also an immense amount of decision-making that comprise what's deemed best to begin with. Without a high level of self-reflection throughout that process, it can be easy to become boilerplate. This is our formula, this is the outcome. Rinse, repeat.

If they lock up Vrana & Connolly both then the absolute need for skilled wingers is less glaring. It's still necessary but no one is likely to be a 3LW next season. Of course, they're not going to be able to rely on Ovechkin & Oshie forever. Who is their best goal-scoring prospect after Barber leaves? Snively seems like their highest upside forward prospect and that's a real condemnation of how little they've targeted upside forwards lately. It's definitely needed to the point where, yeah, it does make sense to move down and collect a bunch of them if they aren't exactly banging the table for one in particular at 25.

 

[Langway]

NHL Scouting Combine, Day Two

Podkolzin's most interesting interview so far was with the Washington Capitals.
"Washington asked if I know how to sing," he said via a translator.
Rather than jump into karaoke mode, Podkolzin said he'd showcase his musical talent at a later date.
"I said if they draft me I'll sing to them," he said.

 

[Makaveli]

Drafting for you guys over on the Mock Draft forum. So far in the first two round I have taken Poulin and Knyazev. Would you guys be okay with that if the actual draft turned out like this?

 

[Langway]

Drafting for you guys over on the Mock Draft forum. So far in the first two round I have taken Poulin and Knyazev. Would you guys be okay with that if the actual draft turned out like this?

That would be decent but maybe not great. Poulin may be a more well-rounded fit for a third line but Dorofeyev would probably have been my pick for upside reasons. That said, Poulin may also have a closer ETA so it's possible. They haven't drafted a QMJHLer early in quite some time, though. They're pretty well stocked at LD so I may have gone with Korczak instead or one of Mastrosimone/Cajkovsky/Firstov to add another skilled winger to the mix.