Prospect Info: 2019 NHL Draft; STI Final Rankings

[mtnet]

Pretty low ranking on Knight. I'd definitely have to think long and hard if he was available at 34, even if there are still some good skaters out there (which I'm sure there will be).

I'm wondering who are the candidates to drop to the 2nd. Every year there are players that plummet - Bode Wilde is the first name that comes to mind in previous drafts.

Same here. Last year scarred me, and it's difficult for me to feel secure about the next few years in net, especially when it comes to Cory. I get he was still battling through recovery but...yeah, still scarred.

MBW looked pretty good for the most part but it's too early to say what he's got in the long run. Let's hope it wasn't a mirage, he's certainly got the size and athleticism going for him which is encouraging.

I don't know where Knight will be taken but I have a sneaking suspicion someone takes him late in the first. Regardless, I suppose a team taking a goalie in the first is largely going to be considered a reach. On the other hand, if he turns out to be the real deal...

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm going to just dump my list here if you don't mind.

2019 Top-62:
1) Jack Hughes
2) Kappo Kakko
3) Bowen Byram
4) Alex Turcotte
5) Trevor Zegras
6) Dylan Cozens
7) Peyton Krebs
8) Vasili Podkolzin
9) Cole Caufield
10) Matthew Boldy
11) Kirby Dach
12) Alex Newhook
13) Moritz Seider
14) Philip Tomasino
15) Arthur Kaliyev
16) Cam York
17) Victor Soderstrom
18) Thomas Harley
19) Bobby Brink
20) Ryan Johnson
21) Connor McMichael
22) Ryan Suzuki
23) Ville Heinola
24) Philip Broberg
25) Raphael Lavoie
26) Jakob Pelletier
27) Tobias Bjornfot
28) Jamieson Rees
29) Nick Robertson
30) Nils Hoglander
31) Pavel Dorofeyev
32) Samuel Poulin
33) Matthew Robertson
34) Lassi Thomson
35) Vladislav Kolyachonok
36) John Beecher
37) Spencer Knight
38) Simon Holmstrom
39) Maxim Cajkovic
40) Brett Leason
41) Yegor Spiridonov
42) Nolan Foote
43) Albin Grewe
44) Drew Helleson
45) Case McCarthy
46) Robert Mastrosimone
47) Billy Constantinou
48) Ryder Donovan
49) Mikko Kokkonen
50) John Farinacci
51) Kaeden Korczak
52) Michal Teply
53) Igor Nikolayev
54) Patrik Puistola
55) Alex Vlasic
56) Judd Caufield
57) Marshall Warren
58) Daniil Gutik
59) Shane Pinto
60) Zac Jones
61) Artemi Kniazev
62) Yegor Afansyev

I want everyone to see the similarities in our Top 20s and realize that great minds think alike, haha.

I'd actually like to get your takes on two prospects whom I also like, but you have ranked significantly higher than myself: Connor McMichael and Ryder Donovan.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Yeah he's one of those guys that are just on the outside looking in for me. There's a lot to like about his game but his skating isn't quite there to put him in my top-62.

I think Legare and Brodzinski are two power RWs who, if they can improve their skating (a la Benn) in their two/three post-draft years, can be incredible value picks down the line. But I agree with you that Legare's skating (and stickhandling) will have to improve in order to have a future as a top 6 winger.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Pretty low ranking on Knight. I'd definitely have to think long and hard if he was available at 34, even if there are still some good skaters out there (which I'm sure there will be).

I'm wondering who are the candidates to drop to the 2nd. Every year there are players that plummet - Bode Wilde is the first name that comes to mind in previous drafts.

In defense of @thethinglonger , it has become very difficult to rank goalies alongside skaters. So the number associated with their ranking needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The important thing is that he, and I (and virtually everyone else) have Spencer Knight as their top-ranked goaltender. That said, I think there is no chance that he is available at the #34 pick.

In terms of candidates who can drop to #34? My foremost hope would be Matthew Robertson. He's just an outstanding LD prospect who would fill the Devils incredible need for a big, physical, shut-down D while also possessing high-end skating ability and strangely unheralded offensive tools.

John Beecher would be another player who could fall, simply because of the fact that he was a bit buried on the US-NTDP center depth chart due to the the presence of three likely top 5 picks (!) ahead of him in Hughes, Turcotte and Zegras. But Beecher's combination of size/strength/speed/two-way acumen/offensive tools is absolutely rare. It's my belief that Beecher would have been the feature player on over half the teams in the CHL this past season. I'm convinced he would be an uncanny value at #34, the kind of guy who could what 3C Keith Primeau was for Yzerman/Fedorov for the Devils top tandem of Hughes/Hischier. Or you could slot him to LW and he could be an absolute wrecking ball there, crashing creases and winning corner battles but adding a tool of elite speed to that mix.

I think the highest upside among wingers who could fall to #34 is Pavel Dorofeyev. A couple of months ago I would have said Bobby Brink, but his stock seems to have risen, and it seems there are scarce chances of his falling to the second round. Dorofeyev could fall simply due to the "Russian factor", and we're talking about a player whose size, physicality and skill liken him very closely to Filip Forsberg in his draft year.

Dorofeyev is a LW however, and the Devils have a greater need on the right. Unfortunately, the class of 2019 is far deeper among left-shot wingers than right-shots, and with Brink likely out of the mix, Ray Shero and Paul Castron would probably be wise to wait until the #55 pick to start considering candidates at that position.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Same here. Last year scarred me, and it's difficult for me to feel secure about the next few years in net, especially when it comes to Cory. I get he was still battling through recovery but...yeah, still scarred.

MBW looked pretty good for the most part but it's too early to say what he's got in the long run. Let's hope it wasn't a mirage, he's certainly got the size and athleticism going for him which is encouraging.

I don't know where Knight will be taken but I have a sneaking suspicion someone takes him late in the first. Regardless, I suppose a team taking a goalie in the first is largely going to be considered a reach. On the other hand, if he turns out to be the real deal...

I can't see Knight falling. Two teams who need a future franchise goaltender have two picks in the first (Colorado and LA) and two more teams who need this have late first-rounders (Islanders and Carolina). I think it's a near-certainty that Knight is gone before #34.

 

[thethinglonger]

I want everyone to see the similarities in our Top 20s and realize that great minds think alike, haha.

I'd actually like to get your takes on two prospects whom I also like, but you have ranked significantly higher than myself: Connor McMichael and Ryder Donovan.

I had some trouble putting McMichael there because of his inconsistency issues. The main source of his inconsistency is his compete, so there were times when he would look like a top-10 scoring talent and other nights where you'd have to double-check he was even in the game. The inconsistency stems to his skating as well where there are nights that he blows by opponents and others where...well he's just kind of there. I put McMichael this high because it's a bit of a gamble on his higher-end skills panning out and he puts in the work. He's a frustrating player but there's a TON of talent there...very polarizing guy.

As for Ryder Donovan, he's in my top-50 because it's another gamble on him putting it all together. Donovan's a bit scary because he has all the physical tools to be a first-round talent but his mental tools need significant improvement. Consistency/compete is an area of significant improvement. I put Donovan lower than McMichael because McMichael has less improvement needed in order to make an impact at the NHL level.

 

[Nubmer6]

I can't see Knight falling. Two teams who need a future franchise goaltender have two picks in the first (Colorado and LA) and two more teams who need this have late first-rounders (Islanders and Carolina). I think it's a near-certainty that Knight is gone before #34.

Agreed, but I thought the Isles have the goalie of their future (Sorokin) in their system already.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Agreed, but I thought the Isles have the goalie of their future (Sorokin) in their system already.

Perhaps, but that's still far from a guarantee and Lamoriello has never been hesitant to draft goaltenders early. Knight is the highest-rated goaltending prospect since Carey Price, so I consider it a possibility.

 

[Nubmer6]

Perhaps, but that's still far from a guarantee and Lamoriello has never been hesitant to draft goaltenders early. Knight is the highest-rated goaltending prospect since Carey Price, so I consider it a possibility.

True, but a lot of Lou's picks were back when it was common to draft a goalie in the 1st round.

 

[My3Sons]

In defense of @thethinglonger , it has become very difficult to rank goalies alongside skaters. So the number associated with their ranking needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The important thing is that he, and I (and virtually everyone else) have Spencer Knight as their top-ranked goaltender. That said, I think there is no chance that he is available at the #34 pick.

In terms of candidates who can drop to #34? My foremost hope would be Matthew Robertson. He's just an outstanding LD prospect who would fill the Devils incredible need for a big, physical, shut-down D while also possessing high-end skating ability and strangely unheralded offensive tools.

John Beecher would be another player who could fall, simply because of the fact that he was a bit buried on the US-NTDP center depth chart due to the the presence of three likely top 5 picks (!) ahead of him in Hughes, Turcotte and Zegras. But Beecher's combination of size/strength/speed/two-way acumen/offensive tools is absolutely rare. It's my belief that Beecher would have been the feature player on over half the teams in the CHL this past season. I'm convinced he would be an uncanny value at #34, the kind of guy who could what 3C Keith Primeau was for Yzerman/Fedorov for the Devils top tandem of Hughes/Hischier. Or you could slot him to LW and he could be an absolute wrecking ball there, crashing creases and winning corner battles but adding a tool of elite speed to that mix.

I think the highest upside among wingers who could fall to #34 is Pavel Dorofeyev. A couple of months ago I would have said Bobby Brink, but his stock seems to have risen, and it seems there are scarce chances of his falling to the second round. Dorofeyev could fall simply due to the "Russian factor", and we're talking about a player whose size, physicality and skill liken him very closely to Filip Forsberg in his draft year.

Dorofeyev is a LW however, and the Devils have a greater need on the right. Unfortunately, the class of 2019 is far deeper among left-shot wingers than right-shots, and with Brink likely out of the mix, Ray Shero and Paul Castron would probably be wise to wait until the #55 pick to start considering candidates at that position.

Beecher sounds like he’d be a great LW for Hughes if he truly has the speed to keep up.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Perhaps, but that's still far from a guarantee and Lamoriello has never been hesitant to draft goaltenders early. Knight is the highest-rated goaltending prospect since Carey Price, so I consider it a possibility.

Lou seems to leave the drafting to whoever his head scout is. Maybe he has veto power, but it’s not for nothing that it’s always the head of scouting that announces the pick.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Beecher sounds like he’d be a great LW for Hughes if he truly has the speed to keep up.

Beecher has incredible speed for his size/strength. It's rare. He also plays with extreme physicality and is terrific defensively. If Beecher falls to the 2nd round, it's because of the fact that he is a very north/south player without high-end vision. But we're talking about a player who compares favorably (because of the elite speed) to a young Ryan Keller or David Backes. I absolutely love this kid. Another context to put him in is a comparison to Dylan Cozens, who plays a game which is not dissimilar in style or talent level (though Cozens is a better passer with a superior shot) and is a lock to be a top-8 pick.

 

[TheDuke93]

Beecher has incredible speed for his size/strength. It's rare. He also plays with extreme physicality and is terrific defensively. If Beecher falls to the 2nd round, it's because of the fact that he is a very north/south player without high-end vision. But we're talking about a player who compares favorably (because of the elite speed) to a young Ryan Keller or David Backes. I absolutely love this kid. Another context to put him in is a comparison to Dylan Cozens, who plays a game which is not dissimilar in style or talent level (though Cozens is a better passer with a superior shot) and is a lock to be a top-8 pick.

He is who I want to fall, I want a big power winger with Jack and hopefully Zacha to be the 3C to pair with Boqvist. Role a 3 headed monster to the likes of -
Hall-Nico-Bratt
Beecher-Hughes-Palms
Boqvist-Zacha-Coleman
And just have relentless pressure of high skill duos, and that is even doing an injustice to Bratt/Palms/Coleman THB lol. You can add in Anderson/Talvitie/Studenic/Bastion at any of the RW spots as well.

 

[My3Sons]

Beecher has incredible speed for his size/strength. It's rare. He also plays with extreme physicality and is terrific defensively. If Beecher falls to the 2nd round, it's because of the fact that he is a very north/south player without high-end vision. But we're talking about a player who compares favorably (because of the elite speed) to a young Ryan Keller or David Backes. I absolutely love this kid. Another context to put him in is a comparison to Dylan Cozens, who plays a game which is not dissimilar in style or talent level (though Cozens is a better passer with a superior shot) and is a lock to be a top-8 pick.

That’s a lot of words to say “excellent observation and right as you always are”.


Kidding obviously. Your explanations put some context to these players so thanks as always for that. Your work here is greatly appreciated.

 

[Missionhockey]

Pretty low ranking on Knight. I'd definitely have to think long and hard if he was available at 34, even if there are still some good skaters out there (which I'm sure there will be).

I'm wondering who are the candidates to drop to the 2nd. Every year there are players that plummet - Bode Wilde is the first name that comes to mind in previous drafts.

He'd be a great value pick there, but I remember the last "next Carey Price" in Zach Fucale was pick at around the same range. If a guy like Dorofeyev is in the same range, I'd rather go in that direction.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

He'd be a great value pick there, but I remember the last "next Carey Price" in Zach Fucale was pick at around the same range. If a guy like Dorofeyev is in the same range, I'd rather go in that direction.

Nobody said that about Fucale. He was a low save percentage goalie on a dominant junior team.

 

[Missionhockey]

Nobody said that about Fucale. He was a low save percentage goalie on a dominant junior team.

"Fucale’s style is reminiscent of a cross between Cam Ward and Carey Price. He has the potential to develop into an elite #1 goaltender if he continues down his current path."

Zach Fucale: 2013 NHL Draft Player Profile #24 - Last Word on Sports

Regardless, the point is that I'd rather go for a skater in that range.

 

[Unknown Caller]

"Fucale’s style is reminiscent of a cross between Cam Ward and Carey Price. He has the potential to develop into an elite #1 goaltender if he continues down his current path."

Zach Fucale: 2013 NHL Draft Player Profile #24 - Last Word on Sports

Regardless, the point is that I'd rather go for a skater in that range.

You can pick out two hundred skater projections that busted as well. It’s not really a great argument to not take Knight.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

"Fucale’s style is reminiscent of a cross between Cam Ward and Carey Price. He has the potential to develop into an elite #1 goaltender if he continues down his current path."

Zach Fucale: 2013 NHL Draft Player Profile #24 - Last Word on Sports

Regardless, the point is that I'd rather go for a skater in that range.

Fair enough, but what you can say is that things are different now that it takes a lot for a goalie to get talked about as going in the top 15, so I’ll take most peoples’ word for it that Knight is a special goalie prospect. I wouldn’t lose it if we took him at 34, but I might be upset if we traded up to get him.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Fair enough, but what you can say is that things are different now that it takes a lot for a goalie to get talked about as going in the top 15, so I’ll take most peoples’ word for it that Knight is a special goalie prospect. I wouldn’t lose it if we took him at 34, but I might be upset if we traded up to get him.

I think, barring a miraculous occurrence of an unexpected, top-15 caliber prospect dropping well into the 20s, this is not the best draft to trade up in. It's too deep. At #34, there should be defensemen, centers and LWs who would go first round in most drafts still available. Last year was a pretty good draft, but I would take Nick Robertson or Nils Hoglander or John Beecher or Tobias Bjornfot or Pavel Dorofeyev or Jamieson Rees over any of the players taken in 2018 between 23-31 with the exception of Joe Veleno. And any of the players I just mentioned could conceivably fall to #34.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

I think, barring a miraculous occurrence of an unexpected, top-15 caliber prospect dropping well into the 20s, this is not the best draft to trade up in. It's too deep. At #34, there should be defensemen, centers and LWs who would go first round in most drafts still available. Last year was a pretty good draft, but I would take Nick Robertson or Nils Hoglander or John Beecher or Tobias Bjornfot or Pavel Dorofeyev or Jamieson Rees over any of the players taken in 2018 between 23-31 with the exception of Joe Veleno. And any of the players I just mentioned could conceivably fall to #34.

I really wonder whether Ray is going to push hard to turn one or both of those two picks in the bottom of the second round into another first rounder, like the Nashville second and say Quenneville for Callahan and 27 overall.

The way I see it is that this team is ready to take the next step and really compete for a Cup with the addition of two or three quality impact players who are currently outside the organization. To get them, we should be looking to trade draft picks after this year. So stock the pipeline this year with as many potential impact players as possible, which you need as many high picks as you can possibly gather. Having picks 1, 27, 34, 60 and the two thirds could potentially yield a bumper crop that we can rely on for a while.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I really wonder whether Ray is going to push hard to turn one or both of those two picks in the bottom of the second round into another first rounder, like the Nashville second and say Quenneville for Callahan and 27 overall.

The way I see it is that this team is ready to take the next step and really compete for a Cup with the addition of two or three quality impact players who are currently outside the organization. To get them, we should be looking to trade draft picks after this year. So stock the pipeline this year with as many potential impact players as possible, which you need as many high picks as you can possibly gather. Having picks 1, 27, 34, 60 and the two thirds could potentially yield a bumper crop that we can rely on for a while.

I would be all in for such a trade, good call.

 

[Forge]

I really wonder whether Ray is going to push hard to turn one or both of those two picks in the bottom of the second round into another first rounder, like the Nashville second and say Quenneville for Callahan and 27 overall.

The way I see it is that this team is ready to take the next step and really compete for a Cup with the addition of two or three quality impact players who are currently outside the organization. To get them, we should be looking to trade draft picks after this year. So stock the pipeline this year with as many potential impact players as possible, which you need as many high picks as you can possibly gather. Having picks 1, 27, 34, 60 and the two thirds could potentially yield a bumper crop that we can rely on for a while.

I would love it if we made such a deal to basically have 3 picks in the top 34. There are a lot of guys that I really like in that 25-35 area.

 

[StevenToddIves]

For anyone who would like to debate my far-higher-than-normal rankings of physical players like Korczak, McCarthy, Keppen and Beecher... I'd like to present the 2019 Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis Blues.

 

[Blackjack]

For anyone who would like to debate my far-higher-than-normal rankings of physical players like Korczak, McCarthy, Keppen and Beecher... I'd like to present the 2019 Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis Blues.

I'm beyond sold on this. My first clue was the impact Pat Maroon made for the Devils down the stretch in 2018. Your position on this has been totally validated by the playoffs this year, and another thing that I haven't seen you mention (but I'm sure you already know): look at the score sheet from tonight's game. ONE minor penalty. The league rewards skill and speed in the regular season. It rewards size and physical play in the playoffs.