2019 NHL Draft, #LoseForHughes, etc.

[Breakers]

I'd be curious to see how people were projecting the 2018 top 10 at this time last yr.

2018 wasnt that much fluctuation
2017 was the big flux.

 

[shottasasa]

Well, hockey is a different sport, so why would the same rules apply? The culture has grown to nurture humility. That’s the baseline. Interviews like this stand out for exactly that reason.

Dach is not just describing how he plays, he’s commending his play. He’s propping it up. Meanwhile, most hockey players downplay their contributions. This is atypical.

I’m not sure you can say that Hughes and Juolevi depict the same attitude.

Look, it doesn’t matter that he’s arrogant or overconfident. This team jettisoned McCann for having personality issues. Could that apply here? Would it sway them from picking Dach? That’s the question.

I think context of that interview is key. He’s just been called up to a permanent spot on the roster in his 15 year old season and sounds like he’s trying to justify why to to the local station. He’s clearly answering a question, and I’m willing to bet it was something that framed the answer. Ie: what you qualities do you have that will allow you to succeed?

But yeah, he’s definitely confident.

 

[Zombotron]

If you want to see a bad interview, go look up (2019-eligible) Robert Mastrosimone on YouTube. That guy needs some Toastmasters training.

 

[Zombotron]

FWIW I see nothing wrong or abnormal about that Dach interview.

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

 

[Mr Plow]

I missed like 10 pages of this thread and it looks pretty dead, so apologies if this had already been covered. Who do you guys like/dislike between Dach, Cozens, Newhook and Turcotte? Anyone care to try to rate the 4?

 

[Tryamkin]

I missed like 10 pages of this thread and it looks pretty dead, so apologies if this had already been covered. Who do you guys like/dislike between Dach, Cozens, Newhook and Turcotte? Anyone care to try to rate the 4?

Right now, for myself I have it as

Turcotte
Newhook
Dach
Cozens

Although Dach is my favourite of the 4 and I see him potential rising the highest.

 

[Knight53]

My top 5 rn

Hughes
Kakko
Turcotte
Cozens
Podkolzin

 

[Bleach Clean]

I missed like 10 pages of this thread and it looks pretty dead, so apologies if this had already been covered. Who do you guys like/dislike between Dach, Cozens, Newhook and Turcotte? Anyone care to try to rate the 4?

This is more difficult than it seems. I'm a Turcotte fan, but his skating lacks power and he gives up size + reach vs Dach or Cozens. These are definitely traits to consider.

I have them like this currently:

Cozens
Turcotte
Dach
Newhook

Right now, for myself I have it as

Turcotte
Newhook
Dach
Cozens

Although Dach is my favourite of the 4 and I see him potential rising the highest.

Can you elaborate as to why Dach is your favourite? I'm not sure about his reluctance to shoot and his tendency to slow the game down. Cozens seems to play with pace, shoots far more often and is recognized as the better 2way player.

I think to favour Dach you have to weight his offensive IQ higher than Cozens. Is that the case?

 

[VIPettersson]

Turcotte's latest measurements have him as 6'2 hes my early favorite for #2 overall this year. I see him having #1 C potential.

 

[Tryamkin]

Can you elaborate as to why Dach is your favourite? I'm not sure about his reluctance to shoot and his tendency to slow the game down. Cozens seems to play with pace, shoots far more often and is recognized as the better 2way player.

I think to favour Dach you have to weight his offensive IQ higher than Cozens. Is that the case?

Dach’s length and size is one of my favourite things about him. He uses such great strength and shielding to gain advantages, some of the best gifts to have physically. His skating ability is good, and I feel the pace will come as he adapts. Dach has that extra 20+ lbs and inch or two which really helps his offensive presence and pick battles. He has the power behind his shot, he just needs to get used to unleashing it more often. Turcotte is gonna be the favourite and leads the pack out of the 4 right now, although I prefer Kakko over him at the moment. Dach already has the tools and his hands and stick are very good, he just has to get better at the habits like unleashing that shot with a killer instinct, using his long stick to break up passes and get tips. Dach for me projects to have a higher potential as his defensive game and shot grows.

 

[G0bias]

Can you elaborate as to why Dach is your favourite? I'm not sure about his reluctance to shoot and his tendency to slow the game down. Cozens seems to play with pace, shoots far more often and is recognized as the better 2way player.

I think to favour Dach you have to weight his offensive IQ higher than Cozens. Is that the case?

From an offensive standpoint, Cozens' a bit rougher around the edges than the others. He plays a conventional game and doesn't have quite the skill level the very top guys have. Whereas Dach, while he's not as well-rounded or relentless as Cozens, his playmaking is elite and skill-set more refined. So I can see why some would consider him having the higher ceiling.

Personally I need to see Dach be more of a dual threat before I put him on top but it's very close.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Dach’s length and size is one of my favourite things about him. He uses such great strength and shielding to gain advantages, some of the best gifts to have physically. His skating ability is good, and I feel the pace will come as he adapts. Dach has that extra 20+ lbs and inch or two which really helps his offensive presence and pick battles. He has the power behind his shot, he just needs to get used to unleashing it more often. Turcotte is gonna be the favourite and leads the pack out of the 4 right now, although I prefer Kakko over him at the moment. Dach already has the tools and his hands and stick are very good, he just has to get better at the habits like unleashing that shot with a killer instinct, using his long stick to break up passes and get tips. Dach for me projects to have a higher potential as his defensive game and shot grows.

Do you think Dach is a plus skater in the NHL? By that I mean above average NHL speed.

I think the call for more shots is the same criticism for Getzlaf. Sometimes, it's just not within the player's instinct to shoot before making a play. I think this applies to Dach as well.

I have Kakko rated at #2 right now.

What makes you like Turcotte over the remaining options? If he's 6'2" now, that should assuage concerns over his size.

I like Cozens' complete two-way package, with his size, speed and power.

From an offensive perspective, he's a bit rougher around the edges than the others. He plays a conventional game and doesn't have quite the finesse the very top guys have. Whereas Dach, while he's not as well-rounded or relentless as Cozens, his playmaking is elite and skill-set more refined. So I can see why some would consider him having the higher upside.

Personally I need to see Dach be more of a dual threat before I put him on top.

I would need to see better 2way play and at least 20 goals scored this year. Even then, I would hesitate to place him above Cozens and Turcotte.

Agreed, Cozens is not as purely skilled. He has the motor and the attention to defense. I want to like Dach more because his skill is evident, but his flaws are Cozens' strengths. It's a tough choice.

 

[Tryamkin]

Do you think Dach is a plus skater in the NHL? By that I mean above average NHL speed.

I think the call for more shots is the same criticism for Getzlaf. Sometimes, it's just not within the player's instinct to shoot before making a play. I think this applies to Dach as well.

I have Kakko rated at #2 right now.

What makes you like Turcotte over the remaining options? If he's 6'2" now, that should assuage concerns over his size.





I would need to see better 2way play and at least 20 goals scored this year. Even then, I would hesitate to place him above Cozens and Turcotte.

Agreed, Cozens is not as purely skilled. He has the motor and the attention to defense. I want to like Dach more because his skill is evident, but his flaws are Cozens' strengths. It's a tough choice.

I understand where you’re coming from on Dach. He does some little things that make me question him as well. I think his skating is just about average, I wouldn’t consider him a plus skater, but I don’t think he’ll struggle. I could see him being like Getzlaf shot wise, but being compared to Getzlaf isn’t necessarily a bad thing haha. Getzlaf doesn’t exactly have that shot instinct, but is still viewed as an elite center. Turcotte just has the skill, he has the size (I’m tired of the too small arguments) and is just the right balance of both, he’s very easy to project as a 1st line center with the amount of skill and good traits he possesses. His IQ and powerful stride are two of my favourite things about him. He never gives up and he does play with the pace that we’ve talked about before.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I understand where you’re coming from on Dach. He does some little things that make me question him as well. I think his skating is just about average, I wouldn’t consider him a plus skater, but I don’t think he’ll struggle. I could see him being like Getzlaf shot wise, but being compared to Getzlaf isn’t necessarily a bad thing haha. Getzlaf doesn’t exactly have that shot instinct, but is still viewed as an elite center. Turcotte just has the skill, he has the size (I’m tired of the too small arguments) and is just the right balance of both, he’s very easy to project as a 1st line center with the amount of skill and good traits he possesses. His IQ and powerful stride are two of my favourite things about him. He never gives up and he does play with the pace that we’ve talked about before.

We agree on Dach's skating. I see him as an average skater at the NHL level as well. Which means that he will rely on his passing and his offensive IQ to become a top6/top3 player. Getzlaf has similar drawbacks, but even he had 29 goals in his draft year. Thornton had 41 goals in 59 games in his draft year. Dach has an uphill battle to go from 7 goals to 20 goals, let alone 7 to 30~ goals for his draft year... Stylistically, he compares to these two, but for ability, he does not... not yet anyway.

Turcotte has the right balance, I agree there too. He has pace, skill, IQ and a decent shot. I'm unsure about his skating. I think he lacks power. He pumps his legs, but his acceleration is not quick. Top speed is fine. When he glides, it looks effortless. I think he is a plus skater at the next level. Just needs work on his acceleration.

 

[canuckfan75]

Blake Murray a 6"2 Center iceman - Sudbury Wolves. will be moving up the rankings. Plays like Bo Horvat - Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

[Intangibos]

Shouldn't it be BoosForHughes?

 

[Tryamkin]

Blake Murray a 6"2 Center iceman - Sudbury Wolves. will be moving up the rankings. Plays like Bo Horvat - Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Not really someone that we need in the pipeline.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Blake Murray a 6"2 Center iceman - Sudbury Wolves. will be moving up the rankings. Plays like Bo Horvat - Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Based on anything you've heard or just random musing?

 

[me2]

Shouldn't it be BoosForHughes?

CruiseForHughes?
SnoozeForHughes?

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

7 centers in the top 10 is pleasing.

Beyond Hughes I really like Dylan Cozens.

 

[Knight53]

This guy is going to be a riser.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

I've had the chance to watch quite a few of the top players now, so I'll offer my opinion here:

I previously spoke about high-IQ players who can assess a play before it happens and then position themselves to be effective at takeaways. Anticipation is a key component of hockey IQ, and those who can see plays develop and react a step ahead of everyone else should be deemed intelligent.

Jack Hughes, Alex Turcotte, Kaapo Kakko, and Vasili Podkolzin were the four who I previously identified as the four smartest players of the draft. Ryan Suzuki should be considered part of that group as well. Suzuki, despite a lack of obvious goal-scoring touch or slick stickhandling abilities, is a brilliant two-way, playmaking center who seems to always be where the puck is going. He is constantly involved in the play; some consider him to be a Top 10 pick. I believe that the Top 10 pick assessment is correct.

Here is my previous assessment of several players:

Having watched last year's U18s, the WJC Summer Showcase, all of the televised Hlinka tournament games, as well as quite a bit of archived shift-by-shift footage of Hughes, Turcotte, Newhook, Kakko, Podkolzin, Krebs, Dach, Cozens, Lavoie, and a few others, I have the following tiers based on the players I have studied:

A. Elite offensive potential:

1. Hughes

2. Turcotte, Podkolzin, Kakko

------------

B. Top six potential:

3. Cozens

4. Krebs, Newhook, Dach

5. Lavoie

------------

The vision, puck skills and anticipation of Group A are above that of any of the Group B players I have seen. As of right now, I see the Group A players as the cream of the crop -- exceptional thinkers who are always around the puck, who can anticipate where the play will go next and put themselves in a position to intercept the puck or involve themselves in the play.

Kakko is a puck control monster with his size and reach; Podkolzin's shooting skills, meanwhile, are the best of the bunch. Turcotte is a takeaway magnet with a keen sense of where to be, great lower body strength to push through obstacles, in addition to great wheels and shiftiness to move the puck up the ice. I like the two-way awareness of the Group A2 players (Turcotte, Kakko, Podkolzin). Hughes is the sneakiest and quickest, but perhaps the lightest and most pass-first of the group. He doesn't have the same power as the others, but possesses the most finesse -- he's something of a McDavid-Gaudreau hybrid.

The rest have some significant faults and, I find, lesser puck skills than the top four.

I came away unimpressed with Newhook's overall game and do not consider him among the elite four. He is quick, but even at the BCHL level does not dictate the pace of the game enough when he is on the ice. While Hughes, Turcotte, Kakko and Podkolzin anticipate plays and think ahead of the opposition's next move, Newhook is a very reactive player -- not proactive. As a result, he spends a lot of time away from the puck and doesn't dominate plays. He moves the puck well when he has it due to his great speed and can distribute the puck fairly accurately, but he doesn't drive the offense enough. He doesn't separate the opposition from the puck enough, nor does he put himself in a position to get in their way. Turcotte, Podkolzin, and Kakko actively disrupt their opponents. Newhook isn't the type of player who has the puck on his stick all the time; even at the BCHL level, I've so far only seen a player who one needs to watch patiently for something interesting to happen. I don't place as much value on the types of players who have great wheels but don't touch the puck enough and spend a lot of time chasing. He is more of a speedy opportunist than an active, dominant line driver.

Newhook's influence on the ice seems to contradict his statistical record. I don't think he reads the game as quickly as Group A. I think he would have looked a lot more like Krebs and Dach last year if he had played in the WHL. Krebs is another high-speed player.

Podkolzin impresses me for reasons besides his goal-scoring prowess. He has a very strong defensive mindset without the puck, and is quick to support his defense, getting in lanes on the backcheck to cause his opponent problems and blocking shots. He is a 200-ft player. He also has exhibited puck skills beyond anything I've seen from any player so far outside of Hughes, Turcotte, and Kakko. He is always engaged in the play, has a physical edge to his game, and is strong on the puck despite being only 165 lbs. He plays with determination and is quick on his skates -- agile, and capable of jumping up into the play quickly with an explosive step. His ability to anticipate and put himself in good defensive position to turn the play around is a lot like Turcotte's. His shot release really only adds to his strengths. He's intelligent. There is so much to like about his overall game.

For the record, Hockey Prospect ranked Podkolzin #9 in June. Their rankings are generally among the best. I see him jumping further up their list by the time of their next publication. Button isn't the first to have Podkolzin ranked in the Top 10.

I like the overall two-way package that Cozens provides, with his size, speed, and power. I don't see enough finesse from him to categorize him among the top players, though. He plays a very conventional power center type of game that could definitely make him a two-way, first-line center in the NHL one day. From an offensive perspective, though, he hasn't shown elite offensive abilities. He has a good shot, moves the puck quite well, is dangerous around the net, can make power moves around opponents and rag the puck around, but I don't see the same offensive skill from him that I see from my Top 4. I have him as the fifth-best forward right now because of his complete game.

Dach leaves me wanting more sometimes. He has a better offensive skill set than Cozens but doesn't have anywhere near the same motor or determination. He is another player who, like Newhook, hovers around a lot without touching the puck. When he has it, he can reach a fairly good top speed, and he is very dangerous around the net. He is a pass-first type of player who can hold possession of the puck along the boards and feather skilled passes to teammates. However, he doesn't have the exceptional mind of the Group A players to be able to anticipate, intercept plays and turn the game around on a consistent basis. He is another reactive player whose offensive instincts seem a little more pedestrian than the top group. His defensive game isn't better than the top players on my list either, nor are his puck skills. He is a big man with good puck control, but not the dynamic puck skills of the top group.

I agree with Broberg being the best-looking 2019-eligible defenceman at the Hlinka. I thought he outshone Byram to quite a significant degree; I thought 2020-eligible defenceman Justin Barron looked better than Byram as well. However, above I've only ranked the forwards I'm very familiar with at this time.

Ryan Suzuki belongs in the same tier as Dylan Cozens, just below the elite players.

Here is my take on Alex Newhook and Vasili Podkolzin:

I've watched both players on a shift-by-shift basis on numerous occasions and came away unimpressed with Newhook's overall game. He is quick, but even at the BCHL level does not dictate the pace of the game enough when he is on the ice. While Hughes, Turcotte, Kakko and Podkolzin anticipate plays and think ahead of the opposition's next move, Newhook is a very reactive player -- not proactive. As a result, he spends a lot of time away from the puck and doesn't dominate plays. He moves the puck well when he has it due to his great speed and can distribute the puck fairly accurately, but he doesn't drive the offense enough. He doesn't separate the opposition from the puck enough, nor does he put himself in a position to get in their way. Turcotte, Podkolzin, and Kakko actively disrupt their opponents. Newhook isn't the type of player who has the puck on his stick all the time; even at the BCHL level, I've so far only seen a player who one needs to watch patiently for something interesting to happen. I don't place as much value on the types of players who have great wheels but don't touch the puck enough and spend a lot of time chasing. He is more of a speedy opportunist than an active, dominant line driver.

Newhook's influence on the ice seems to contradict his statistical record. I don't think he reads the game as quickly as Group A. I think he would have looked a lot more like Krebs and Dach last year if he had played in the WHL. Krebs is another high-speed player.

Podkolzin impresses me for reasons besides his goal-scoring prowess. He has a very strong defensive mindset without the puck, and is quick to support his defense, getting in lanes on the backcheck to cause his opponent problems and blocking shots. He is a 200-ft player. He also has exhibited puck skills beyond anything I've seen from any player so far outside of Hughes, Turcotte, and Kakko. He is always engaged in the play, has a physical edge to his game, and is strong on the puck despite being only 165 lbs. He plays with determination and is quick on his skates -- agile, and capable of jumping up into the play quickly with an explosive step. His ability to anticipate and put himself in good defensive position to turn the play around is a lot like Turcotte's. His shot release really only adds to his strengths. He's intelligent. There is so much to like about his overall game.

For the record, Hockey Prospect ranked Podkolzin #9 in June. Their rankings are generally among the best. I see him jumping further up their list by the time of their next publication.

Maxim Cajkovic is a pure goal scorer who, frankly, doesn't contribute much outside of his goal-scoring ability. He possesses a shoot-first mentality and has a good shot, but I don't see a ton of effective play from him. He is a "get me the puck" type of player who tends to float and disappear when the puck is not on his stick. He is fairly one-dimensional. It's worth noting that a few of HF's Slovak members have discussed whether he or Milos Roman is the better Slovak prospect -- I believe they concluded that Roman was the better all-around player, while Cajkovic had the better scoring touch. When he isn't scoring, I feel like he has a negative impact on his team's possession game.

Nolan Foote isn't a particularly fast player nor does he have great hands, although he has somewhat decent IQ. He plods, but is strong along the boards. He comes across as a checking line type rather than a player with high offensive potential. He is clumsy, and should only be taken after Raphael Lavoie is off the board, in my opinion.

Danil Gutik is a big, creative type with enigmatic tendencies. He is a very average skater, and he sometimes looks apathetic or ineffective without the puck. He struggles to carry the pace of the play, but is decent around the net. I don't see enough high-end vision to consider him a likely top-six forward. However, he shoots the puck well and can use his size well to shield the puck.

Matthew Boldy is a two-way winger who plays a fairly safe game; he doesn't generate much on his own, but is a decent support forward on the forecheck, has good speed and edgework, and has a pretty decent release. He lacks an offensive edge and isn't particularly nifty. I see a bottom-six winger in him at the NHL level.

My current tiers based on who I've seen:

A. Elite offensive potential:

1. Hughes

2. Turcotte, Podkolzin, Kakko

------------

B. Top six potential:

3. Cozens, Suzuki

4. Krebs, Newhook, Dach

5. Lavoie, Gutik

C. Bottom-six or high-risk:

6. Foote, Boldy

7. Cajkovic

------------

 

[Blade Paradigm]

I've studied a few more of the projected first-round prospects. I'd like to add to my rankings:

Simon Holmstrom is not a name that many talk about as a top pick right now, but I strongly believe that he could be a Top 10 selection based on what I've seen. He exudes potential -- an excellent skater who is very comfortable with his edges a la Nico Hischier and Filip Zadina. He is a puck hound who roams around the ice to provide puck support. At 5'11'', 175 lbs, he is decently sized, but he is very mobile and always very engaged in the play. He makes crisp passes and has shown good stickhandling abilities, although he could work on becoming a more deceptive one-on-one player. Out of all of the players I have seen so far, I rank him ahead of most -- just below Cozens and Suzuki. He plays for HV71 of the SuperElit U20 league, and last year greatly outpaced all other 2019-eligible players in that league in scoring, including Maxim Cajkovic. I think he's a Top 10 talent in this draft class. His downside might be that he takes a lot of risks with the puck and sometimes makes ill-advised decisions. He has a great skill set and anticipates well, but when he has the puck he sometimes gambles and loses. If he can tidy up his one-on-one game, he'll be great. I thought Filip Zadina was guilty of too many high-risk plays last year.

Blake Murray, a center with the Sudbury Wolves, is another player I've watched. I think he'll end up playing a bottom six role in the NHL. He has a large frame and skates well -- he is great at transitioning the puck up the ice and can play a reliable defensive game. I don't think he handles the puck all that well nor is he consistently dangerous off the rush. He tries to force passes sometimes and doesn't create much offensively. I categorize him ahead of Foote and Boldy but below Gutik and Lavoie.

Some people have Trevor Zegras ranked highly. I disagree with those assessments. Zegras has the same 5'11'', 160 lbs build as Jack Hughes, and is a mobile skater, but he lacks high-end stickhandling and vision. He looks great cruising through the neutral zone, but he does not demonstrate enough offensive ability to overcome his size. There is not enough offensive substance to his game.

I've also seen Arthur Kaliyev, and I think he will be a bottom nine winger. He is sturdy with the puck and skates fairly well for his 6'2'' frame, but I sense a lack of creativity in his game. He plays a very vanilla type of game with decent net-front presence and a good shot, but passes from him don't always connect the way that they would from the elite talents, and his neutral zone transition game is mediocre.

Updated tiers:

A. Elite offensive potential:

1. Hughes

2. Turcotte, Podkolzin, Kakko

------------

B. Top six potential:

3. Cozens, Suzuki

4. Holmstrom

5. Krebs, Newhook, Dach

6. Lavoie, Gutik

------------

C. Bottom-six or high-risk:

7. Murray, Kaliyev

8. Foote, Boldy

9. Cajkovic, Zegras

------------

I'm also starting to lean towards Kakko as the #2 player in the draft ahead of the others in his group.

 

[Archangel]

we make the playoffs BOOK IT