Rumor: 2019 Free Agent Tranquility Part III

[RockyMtnRedhawk]

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Is Kevin Connauton better than we realize? 10 5v5 goals 2 seasons ago is pretty crazy.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Is Kevin Connauton better than we realize? 10 5v5 goals 2 seasons ago is pretty crazy.

I mean I don’t think he’s much more than a 6D, but he is one of the most underrated shooting dman I would say.

 

[henchman21]

Is Kevin Connauton better than we realize? 10 5v5 goals 2 seasons ago is pretty crazy.

Considering he was shooting 11%... I'd say it is fluke.

 

[Avs_19]

That's a lot of money just sitting there even if we assume Rantanen gets $10M/yr. Come on, Sakic. Do what needs to be done to shore up the defense and further push this team towards being a contender.

 

[Avsboy]

That's a lot of money just sitting there even if we assume Rantanen gets $10M/yr. Come on, Sakic. Do what needs to be done to sure up the defense and further push this team towards being a contender.

Only Gardiner...

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Even use that cap space to recoup some of our lost futures from this past summer.


Take Kulikov + 2nd out of Winnipeg for a 7th or something.


Mind you there's a few RHD I wouldn't mind even trading some value to get as well. Alec Martinez, David Savard, Adam Larsson... I wouldn't hate making a move for one of those guys to shore up that Right side either.

 

[Balthazar]

Don't clog up the f***ing defense.

 

[Richard88]

That's a lot of money just sitting there even if we assume Rantanen gets $10M/yr. Come on, Sakic. Do what needs to be done to sure up the defense and further push this team towards being a contender.

If Rantanen gets $9.5m that leaves $6.9m in capspace going into the season, probably even more if one of our depth defensemen get taken on waivers (eg. Barberio's $1.45m off the roster would make our capspace $8.3m).

Needless to say, that's a nice situation to be in come the deadline.

Come to think of it, maybe we should have given Zadorov a 1 year $10m contract this season, and then resigned him next summer to a 4 year deal at $2.5m/year. I mean, his earnings would be the same as a $4m/5 year deal over the course of the contract ($20m) but it would help us distribute the AAV towards the years when we actually need to use the cap.

 

[EdAVSfan]

If Rantanen gets $9.5m that leaves $6.9m in capspace going into the season, probably even more if one of our depth defensemen get taken on waivers (eg. Barberio's $1.45m off the roster would make our capspace $8.3m).

Needless to say, that's a nice situation to be in come the deadline.

Come to think of it, maybe we should have given Zadorov a 1 year $10m contract this season, and then resigned him next summer to a 4 year deal at $2.5m/year. I mean, his earnings would be the same over the course of the contract ($20m) but it would help us distribute the AAV towards the years when we actually need to use the cap.

7M in cap space works out to like 25-30 mil in cap space at the deadline.

 

[Richard88]

Even use that cap space to recoup some of our lost futures from this past summer.


Take Kulikov + 2nd out of Winnipeg for a 7th or something.


Mind you there's a few RHD I wouldn't mind even trading some value to get as well. Alec Martinez, David Savard, Adam Larsson... I wouldn't hate making a move for one of those guys to shore up that Right side either.

I'd be all for using capspace to get some good picks back. Kinda surprised Sakic hasn't already done it actually. Particularly Reimer or Condon given our need of an AHL starter. We probably could have gotten a decent pick from Calgary to buyout Michael Stone for them too. I guess Sakic has plans for that capspace at the deadline though.

At RHD I'd really like to see Meloche given a chance this year. He did everything possible to earn a call up last year, but was passed over for Lindholm, and Alt to start with, and then Graves. I can only think there was a plan in place for Meloche to spend the full season in the AHL to have some stability, otherwise a couple of those callups make no sense.

The guys you've mentioned are interesting suggestions, but of the three I think only Martinez would be available at a reasonable cost. Columbus have all the cap space in the world but no one to spend it on, so they have no incentive to move a useful player like Savard. For Edmonton it would be an extremely bad look to trade Larsson after giving up Hall for him, unless they got a substantial return.

In general though, I think all those guys having multiple years left on their contracts wouldn't be ideal in the long-run if we plan on giving Timmins and/or Meloche a chance in the next 1-2 years.

 

[RockyMtnRedhawk]

I wouldn't be surprised to go into the season with cap space. It gives Joe the flexibility to add a piece at the deadline and/or take on a bad contract from a cap-strapped team. If Rants signs for 9-10M, that leaves 6-7M to work with.

 

[forsbergavs32]

I’d be fine with adding McQuaid on a 1 year deal but pass on Gardiner. No need to clog up the blueline since he likely wants more than 1-2 years.

 

[Balthazar]

Looks like he's waiting for the Risto trade



Edit: apparently it's Montreal, who, for some reason, only have 4M in cap space. Who are they trying to move? Alzner?




I know I'm a day or two late on this story, sorry if it was already discussed.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

The guys you've mentioned are interesting suggestions, but of the three I think only Martinez would be available at a reasonable cost. Columbus have all the cap space in the world but no one to spend it on, so they have no incentive to move a useful player like Savard. For Edmonton it would be an extremely bad look to trade Larsson after giving up Hall for him, unless they got a substantial return.

In general though, I think all those guys having multiple years left on their contracts wouldn't be ideal in the long-run if we plan on giving Timmins and/or Meloche a chance in the next 1-2 years.

All the guys I mentioned have two years or less left on the deals. That's a perfect timeline.


The only RHD in the system with any sort of real opportunity to have an impact for us in those next 2 years would be Timmins and maybe Meloche. And I have my doubts of either one being ready this year.


Over the next two years I'm certain EJ would miss at least 20-30 games and that's where you can give Timmins and/or Meloche a look in the NHL.


We're very thin on the Right side currently and without getting help we're probably not going to be anywhere near the Stanley cup this season at least.

 

[Balthazar]

All the guys I mentioned have two years or less left on the deals. That's a perfect timeline.


The only RHD in the system with any sort of real opportunity to have an impact for us in those next 2 years would be Timmins and maybe Meloche. And I have my doubts of either one being ready this year.


Over the next two years I'm certain EJ would miss at least 20-30 games and that's where you can give Timmins and/or Meloche a look in the NHL.


We're very thin on the Right side currently and without getting help we're probably not going to be anywhere near the Stanley cup this season at least.

Barberio is under contract and healthy. Meloche is 22 with 2 full pro seasons under his belt, he needs a legit shot because if he can't make it they might move on from him. We have no clue whatsoever about Timmins.

We can always trade during the season if need be, no need to make trades until we know what we have. That would really sucks for Meloche, Barbs and Timmins if they somehow got another 3rd pairing roadblock like Kulikov.

 

[henchman21]

Barberio is under contract and healthy. Meloche is 22 with 2 full pro seasons under his belt, he needs a legit shot because if he can't make it they might move on from him. We have no clue whatsoever about Timmins.

We can always trade during the season if need be, no need to make trades until we know what we have. That would really sucks for Meloche, Barbs and Timmins if they somehow got another 3rd pairing roadblock like Kulikov.

Who cares about Barbie... he can be gone or sent to the minors at any point. Meloche has to earn his shot. This is the year he needs to show he can be a top end AHL player worthy of a call up. The unknown on Timmins is a reason to go after a defensemen. The bottom pairing is really iffy with Cole's injury and the general lack of depth on the right side. Combine that with EJ's injury issues, I think the Avs should try to shore up the bottom pairing somehow. Either by getting a good LD to shift Z to the right... or getting a RD that can step up when injuries happen.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Barberio is under contract and healthy. Meloche is 22 with 2 full pro seasons under his belt, he needs a legit shot because if he can't make it they might move on from him. We have no clue whatsoever about Timmins.

We can always trade during the season if need be, no need to make trades until we know what we have.

Well for starters Barberio is a Left Shot Dman. Plus we already know exactly what we have in him.


Meloche simply isnt NHL ready yet and Timmins regardless of whether he is ready or not should at least be starting in the AHL.


We have 2 NHL caliber Right Handed Dmen and one of them is going to be 31 years old coming off 3rd his major surgery in the last 3-4 years.


We certainly aren't deep on the Right side and waiting to see how things play out is how we get off to a slow start and fight ourselves fighting to stay above water all season instead of pushing for home ice advantage.

 

[Richard88]

7M in cap space works out to like 25-30 mil in cap space at the deadline.

Good point, I had totally forgotten about that.

I ran the numbers on cap accrual, and our deadline capspace would be a bit lower than $25-30m, but still really high.

Assuming that Rantanen gets $10m, that puts our total cap at $75m (against a cap of $81.5m)

The regular season starts on October 2, 2019 and ends on April 4, 2020 = 185 days

Start of regular season on October 2, 2019 to trade deadline on February 24, 2020 = 145 days

145/185 = 0.784

$75m x 0.784 = $58.7m.

$81.5 - $58.7m = $22.7m


Even if we added another $4-6m player we'd still have tons of space for a deadline acquisition:

Adding $4m player (cap of $79m)

• $79m x 0.784 = $61.9m
• $81.5m - $61.9m = $19.6m

Adding a $5m player (cap of $80m)

• $80m x 0.784 = $62.7m
• $81.5m - $62.7m = $18.8m

Adding a $6m player (cap of $81m)

• $81m x 0.784 = $63.5m
• $81.5m - $63.5m = $18m

With that in mind, I really hope Sakic has a plan to acquire some bad 1 year contracts to gain some picks before the season starts.

Some ideas:

• Craig Anderson .... $4.75m / 1 year....... Ottawa's caphit is now at $65.8m, which is $5.6m above the $60.2m cap floor. As such, they can move Anderson and still be cap compliant, while saving Eugene $4.75m at the cost of picks, which Ottawa have a lot of. With Anderson we would have a veteran NHL'er to be our No.3 and AHL starter.

• James Reimer .... $3.4m / 2 years.... I recently made a detailed post on why this might make sense for both Carolina and Colorado, here.

• Mike Condon .... $2.4m / 1 year ... Tampa acquired him to get rid of Callahan, but in doing so increased their cap hit. They've got too many goalies and would be glad to flip Condon.

• Patrick Eaves..... $3.15m / 1 year.... Anaheim are in a rebuild so probably wouldn't want to give up good picks but rather ride this one out. Might still be able to get something like a mid or late round pick though which is something.

• Brandon Manning ... $2.25m / 1 year ..... Edmonton are tight up against the cap and taking this contract off their hands would help them find capspace to resign Puljujarvi and sign a 3C (eg. Brassard).

 

[Richard88]

Barberio is under contract and healthy. Meloche is 22 with 2 full pro seasons under his belt, he needs a legit shot because if he can't make it they might move on from him. We have no clue whatsoever about Timmins.

We can always trade during the season if need be, no need to make trades until we know what we have. That would really sucks for Meloche, Barbs and Timmins if they somehow got another 3rd pairing roadblock like Kulikov.

I agree with this. The time to make a trade for a RHD would be after camp/preseason, when we've had a chance to assess Meloche, Byram, etc as well as Johnson's fitness.

 

[Richard88]

Who cares about Barbie... he can be gone or sent to the minors at any point. Meloche has to earn his shot. This is the year he needs to show he can be a top end AHL player worthy of a call up. The unknown on Timmins is a reason to go after a defensemen. The bottom pairing is really iffy with Cole's injury and the general lack of depth on the right side. Combine that with EJ's injury issues, I think the Avs should try to shore up the bottom pairing somehow. Either by getting a good LD to shift Z to the right... or getting a RD that can step up when injuries happen.

I thought Meloche did that last season. He had a great camp, and was the Eagles' best defenseman for most of last year.

 

[henchman21]

I thought Meloche did that last season. He had a great camp, and was the Eagles' best defenseman for most of last year.

That's just not true... he had some good moments and some bad moments. Warsofsky was the best defensemen on the team followed by Alt.

 

[Richard88]

All the guys I mentioned have two years or less left on the deals. That's a perfect timeline.


The only RHD in the system with any sort of real opportunity to have an impact for us in those next 2 years would be Timmins and maybe Meloche. And I have my doubts of either one being ready this year.


Over the next two years I'm certain EJ would miss at least 20-30 games and that's where you can give Timmins and/or Meloche a look in the NHL.


We're very thin on the Right side currently and without getting help we're probably not going to be anywhere near the Stanley cup this season at least.

I think you're being overly cautious regarding Timmins and especially Meloche.

Last season Meloche already looked a level above the AHL, and this is his last ELC year so this season would be the ideal time to give him a real shot.

Once Cole is back our D will be strong again (though admittedly he may take a while to get up to speed):

Girard --- Johnson
Zadorov -- Makar
Cole ----- Connauton/Barberio/Graves/Rosén/Byram/Timmins/Meloche

 

[dahrougem2]

Lol @ Barberio being healthy. Dude is going to get hurt some time next week breathing in air.

 

[Richard88]

Well for starters Barberio is a Left Shot Dman. Plus we already know exactly what we have in him.


Meloche simply isnt NHL ready yet and Timmins regardless of whether he is ready or not should at least be starting in the AHL.


We have 2 NHL caliber Right Handed Dmen and one of them is going to be 31 years old coming off 3rd his major surgery in the last 3-4 years.


We certainly aren't deep on the Right side and waiting to see how things play out is how we get off to a slow start and fight ourselves fighting to stay above water all season instead of pushing for home ice advantage.

What would you give up in a trade for each of the RHD's you've mentioned in earlier posts?

• Martinez
• Savard
• Larsson
• Ristolainen

EDIT: Regarding Ristolainen, I made a couple of exploratory suggestions in the Risto trade board thread the last couple of days. What I suggested might be lower than what they're looking for but I figure it could be the basis of a deal if there's a decent prospect + pick included:

What sort of value would be reasonable for Ristolainen in a trade with Colorado?

Colorado could use another RHD given that only Makar and Johnson are RHD's on the roster, and if Ristolainen can be acquired a reasonable price it would be worth it to use the extra capspace to stack the defence a bit this season.

Girard ---- Makar
Zadorov -- Johnson
Cole ------ Ristolainen​

Included in the trade from Colorado would be a combination of:

• a LHD - one of Connauton/Barberio/Graves/Rosén (I assume Cole is of no interest due to his current injury);
• a prospect - eg. Bowers/Kamenev/Meloche/Hellesson/Kovelenko;
• a draft pick (eg. COL 2021 2nd, or TOR 2020 3rd)
• maybe also a bottom 6 forward like Nieto or Wilson could also be included if needed.

So for example:

Ristolainen <-----> Connauton + Kamenev/Bowers + COL 2021 2nd​

How much more?

First of all, he's signed at $5.4m for 3 more years. That's a significant salary that limits the number of teams that can acquire him.

Secondly, he's not particularly strong defensively.

Thirdly, as someone else pointed out earlier in the thread, around 50% of his points come on the PP. On most good teams (i.e. those who would be interested in acquiring him) it's very unlikely that he'd be quarterbacking PP1, and without those PP minutes he'd only be a 20-25 point defenseman rather than 40 point d-man.

With all that in mind, I think it's a tad optimistic to expect a legit 2C or 2RW in a trade for him. It's also telling that, despite all the noise about him being traded, Botterill is apparently struggling to do just that, suggesting that he's being overvalued.

That said, I'm curious to hear what players/prospects/picks you think would be acceptable from Colorado for him?