Rumor: 2019 Free Agent Tranquility Part III

[Gatorbait19]

I know some people are skittish about signing guys like Gardiner and Shatty. However, if we could get either on a 1yr deal (maybe 2 for Gardiner max), then we should be all over that. We easily have the cap space and it’s such low risk high reward that it’s a no-brainer to me. The worst case scenario is they get passed and/or buried in the depth chart. In which case you trade/waive them.

 

[Richard88]

I know some people are skittish about signing guys like Gardiner and Shatty. However, if we could get either on a 1yr deal (maybe 2 for Gardiner max), then we should be all over that. We easily have the cap space and it’s such low risk high reward that it’s a no-brainer to me. The worst case scenario is they get passed and/or buried in the depth chart. In which case you trade/waive them.

While there are arguments for it, there are also several reasons why it doesn't make a tonne of sense to acquire Shattenkirk:

Firstly, I'd wager that Sakic has plans for how to use the extra capspace, like for example acquiring a pending UFA forward at the deadline (eg. Kreider/Hall/Schenn/Granlund).

Secondly, signing Shattenkirk would limit opportunities for Meloche/Timmins to step up this season. Granted, if either of them outperformed Shattenkirk then you could simply trade or waive him as you suggested, but with Shattenkirk there there would be less urgency on giving Meloche a chance so it would be more likely that he wouldn't get opportunities.

Thirdly, although the 3rd pairing could use a RHD, we're loaded with 3rd pairing defensemen as is, some of whom are arguably better and/or more useful than Shattenkirk would be.

Lastly, on the 3rd pairing we'd ideally have someone who can kill penalties, rather than a PP specialist who won't get PP time.

 

[Gatorbait19]

While there are arguments for it, there are also several reasons why it doesn't make a tonne of sense to acquire Shattenkirk:

Firstly, I'd wager that Sakic has plans for how to use the extra capspace, like for example acquiring a pending UFA forward at the deadline (eg. Kreider/Hall/Schenn/Granlund).

Secondly, signing Shattenkirk would limit opportunities for Meloche/Timmins to step up this season. Granted, if either of them outperformed Shattenkirk then you could simply trade or waive him as you suggested, but with Shattenkirk there there would be less urgency on giving Meloche a chance so it would be more likely that he wouldn't get opportunities.

Thirdly, although the 3rd pairing could use a RHD, we're loaded with 3rd pairing defensemen as is, some of whom are arguably better and/or more useful than Shattenkirk would be.

Lastly, on the 3rd pairing we'd ideally have someone who can kill penalties, rather than a PP specialist who won't get PP time.

I get that it could block the younger guys to an extent. However, we cant expect or rely upon a guy that hasn’t played a game in 16 months or even in the AHL. Then there’s Meloche who’s a total unknown and never played in the NHL before.

I also don’t think signing either of these guys would tie up our cap so badly that would couldn’t acquire one of the top flight forwards you mentioned. As I said, before we can always trade or waive them.

To me, your point about the PK aspect is the most compelling. Yes, ideally the 3rd pairing guy would be a solid PKer, but that’s what Connauton is for.

Lastly, Cole is out til 2020 and we don’t know how capable he’ll be after double hip surgery. And we also aren’t positive that EJ will be ready. Even the best case scenario means we have to start the season playing 2 of Connauton, Rosen, Byram, Timmins, Meloche or Graves.

 

[Makar to MacK]

I personally think we dont need to block our prospects anymore for another dman when it is for the 7th spot. Let Meloche and Timmons and even Byram fill that spot imo

 

[Richard88]

I get that it could block the younger guys to an extent. However, we cant expect or rely upon a guy that hasn’t played a game in 16 months or even in the AHL. Then there’s Meloche who’s a total unknown and never played in the NHL before.

I also don’t think signing either of these guys would tie up our cap so badly that would couldn’t acquire one of the top flight forwards you mentioned. As I said, before we can always trade or waive them.

To me, your point about the PK aspect is the most compelling. Yes, ideally the 3rd pairing guy would be a solid PKer, but that’s what Connauton is for.

Lastly, Cole is out til 2020 and we don’t know how capable he’ll be after double hip surgery. And we also aren’t positive that EJ will be ready. Even the best case scenario means we have to start the season playing 2 of Connauton, Rosen, Byram, Timmins, Meloche or Graves.

I agree that the most compelling reason is the PK ability, the other ones are lesser points to varying degrees.

The Cole situation isn't ideal, but I think Sakic and Bednar will look at is as an opportunity to see what they have in the young guys Byram (9 games?), Meloche, Timmins, and/or Rosén, so it might actually be a blessing in disguise in the long-term if someone can stake a claim.

Another point is that Shattenkirk needs to reestablish his value this coming season, so he'd probably only sign somewhere with the agreement that he'd be given ice-time to do just that - which again would block a young guy. In any case, it probably comes down to how highly rated Meloche/Timmins/Rosén/etc are by the front office and if they're expected to contribute this season.

Regarding the capspace, I guess it depends on what sort of moves Sakic is looking at making before the deadline. We've also got to acquire a No.3 goalie, and he might feel that it's worth taking on something of a capdump (eg. Reimer/Condon) to gain some extra picks. Adding Shattenkirk on top of that and your extra ~$6m capspace would suddenly be down to like $2m. We also don't know if a $6m player is all Sakic wants to acquire, and keeping some flexibility incase a Karlsson/Hoffman type scenario emerges during the season would make it easier to make a move. Not saying that any of those will happen, but Sakic seems pretty calculated with how he uses capspace and might not want to reduce what is a big advantage for what would be marginal improvement at best.

 

[Byzantium]

What do you consider to be "relatively cheap"?

Fwiw, Ranger fans on the trade board seem pretty content with these two rough ideas:

• Kreider <---> Kaut + conditional 3rd (included if extended)

• Kreider <----> 2020 1st + Meloche/Kamenev + conditional 3rd (included if extended)

I don't want to be the one to hand out a big contract to Kreider. It seems Sakic only wants to hand out the big contracts to core guys while the others pave way for Mackinnons next deal. Would Sakic even offer Kreider the 6-7 years he would get elsewhere? I think there is too much risk for what we are giving up. I'd rather use those assets to aquire a younger player under control or an elite player should one become available, Hall for instance.

Seeing what Mark Stone returned at the deadline it's possible we can acquire a player of equal stature for a package around our 1st + Kaut.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I just don't see the point in getting Shatty. His bread and butter is PP and he won't get too much of that here. A 3rd pairing RHD that can play PK is more of a need until Cole comes back but I would really like to see what Meloche can do in that role first. And there is still Timmins as we never know. He might prove everybody wrong and make the team right out of camp (although I personally think he should have some time in the AHL first).

 

[Richard88]

I don't want to be the one to hand out a big contract to Kreider. It seems Sakic only wants to hand out the big contracts to core guys while the others pave way for Mackinnons next deal. Would Sakic even offer Kreider the 6-7 years he would get elsewhere? I think there is too much risk for what we are giving up. I'd rather use those assets to aquire a younger player under control or an elite player should one become available, Hall for instance.

Seeing what Mark Stone returned at the deadline it's possible we can acquire a player of equal stature for a package around our 1st + Kaut.

I do think Sakic would be ok with giving Kreider some term, on the condition that there aren't any NTC or NMC in his contract in any years from 2023 onwards, and that the contract is front-loaded somewhat to make him easier to trade in the last 2-3 years if needed.

I agree with you that it would be nice to acquire an elite forward instead, but apart from Hall there aren't many that would potentially be available at a reasonable cost. Mark Stone was a unique circumstance, given that he was a pending UFA playing for a terrible team with no intention of keeping or paying him (who also happen to be really bad at making trades).

If we do want to acquire a top 6 forward at the deadline, the most-likely-to-be-available UFA options beyond Hall and Kreider aren't really that great:

• Schenn and Granlund are both pending UFA's, but Nashville and St. Louis should be in playoff contention and not sellers. Even if they wanted to move them they wouldn't want to trade them to a division rival.

• Hoffman and Dadonov are also pending UFA's who could be interesting, but with the additions they've made this summer Florida probably won't be looking to be sellers at the deadline.

• Simmonds as a rental might work, but depends on whether NJ are sellers or not. Chances are that if they are sellers then Simmonds won't have had a good season anyways and thus not worth paying much for.

• Tofolli is a pending UFA, but it sounds like LA wants to try to keep him. Could be a good pickup if he's available.

• Namestnikov wouldn't be a glamorous acquisition, but if we have some injury issues in the bottom 6 maybe he could be a cheap solution.

Beyond the pending UFA's, some other options might be:

• Zucker - Minnesota might be open to moving him if they commit to a rebuild, but it's unlikely that they'd want to trade within the division unless we overpay.

• Silfverberg - if Anaheim decides to tank and get value for him before he enters his 30's.

• Tatar - if Montreal are looking like a bottom feeder at the deadline he might be a possibility. 2 years left @ $5.3m.

• Marcus Johansson - Buffalo just signed him, but with only a 2 year deal he could still be available if Buffalo ends up sucking again.

 

[tucker3434]

We don’t have the roster space for Gardiner or Shattenkirk. Those guys will get better opportunities than the bottom pairing/PP2 role we could offer.

 

[cgf]

We don’t have the roster space for Gardiner or Shattenkirk. Those guys will get better opportunities than the bottom pairing/PP2 role we could offer.

Why would we only offer Gardiner a bottom pairing spot?

 

[Patagonia]

I get that it could block the younger guys to an extent. However, we cant expect or rely upon a guy that hasn’t played a game in 16 months or even in the AHL. Then there’s Meloche who’s a total unknown and never played in the NHL before.

I also don’t think signing either of these guys would tie up our cap so badly that would couldn’t acquire one of the top flight forwards you mentioned. As I said, before we can always trade or waive them.

To me, your point about the PK aspect is the most compelling. Yes, ideally the 3rd pairing guy would be a solid PKer, but that’s what Connauton is for.

Lastly, Cole is out til 2020 and we don’t know how capable he’ll be after double hip surgery. And we also aren’t positive that EJ will be ready. Even the best case scenario means we have to start the season playing 2 of Connauton, Rosen, Byram, Timmins, Meloche or Graves.

I agree with many of the posts to pass on JG and KS.

They’re both PP Specialists looking for an opportunity to re-establish their value. Girard/Makar will be given control on the same or different lines on PP. Byram/Timmins will eventually be joining the team and given PP opportunities over the next 1-2 years.

Where do they play? The current roster is in flux due to injuries. Assuming prospects Byram/Timmins/Helleson need 1-2 years.

Girard - Makar
Zadorov - EJ?
Graves-Meloche

The biggest uncertainty is EJ recovery which should be fully cleared early in the season. Cole is unknown.

Bottom pairing provides the most opportunity, but doubtful either UFA would consider a team that doesn’t increase their value.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I think a lot of us might be sleeping on Calle Rosen. I think after making that trade Sakic hopes Rosen will be our 5/6/7 D.

Rosen wasn’t a throw in. The leafs were high on him and wouldn’t have given him up to simply clear a roster space. I haven’t really seen him but it seems like he’s outgrown the AHL. I’d bet he plays a lot of hockey for the Avs this year.

 

[Gatorbait19]

Serious question - what’s stopping us from going with 2Dmen on PP2? I think I’d rather roll with Girard and Shatty on PP2 than have 3 of Compher, Jost, Bura and Donskoi on that unit.

 

[tucker3434]

Why would we only offer Gardiner a bottom pairing spot?

Because we aren’t bumping any of EJ, Byram, Makar, or Girard to the bottom pairing. Byram might not stick, but I doubt Sakic preemptively fills that spot.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Because we aren’t bumping any of EJ, Byram, Makar, or Girard to the bottom pairing. Byram might not stick, but I doubt Sakic preemptively fills that spot.

Do we really have to force Byram into a top 4 role at 18 years old?

We can’t just develop him slowly in juniors, or give him time to acclimate to a pro game in the bottom pairing?

 

[tucker3434]

Do we really have to force Byram into a top 4 role at 18 years old?

We can’t just develop him slowly in juniors, or give him time to acclimate to a pro game in the bottom pairing?

If he’s here, we’re going to want to give him o zone time with smart matchups. Those are the exact same type of minutes you’d want to try to give to a Gardiner or Shattenkirk. So I don’t think we’ll do that. If those guys were better in their own zone, you might take a longer look, but I think we’re full on o zone defenders.

 

[EdAVSfan]

If he’s here, we’re going to want to give him o zone time with smart matchups. Those are the exact same type of minutes you’d want to try to give to a Gardiner or Shattenkirk. So I don’t think we’ll do that. If those guys were better in their own zone, you might take a longer look, but I think we’re full on o zone defenders.

The left side right now are Girard and Zadorov. There’s no reason we can’t give Byram o-zone and preferential matchups.

I still don’t get the rush with Byram though.

 

[Patagonia]

I think a lot of us might be sleeping on Calle Rosen. I think after making that trade Sakic hopes Rosen will be our 5/6/7 D.

Rosen wasn’t a throw in. The leafs were high on him and wouldn’t have given him up to simply clear a roster space. I haven’t really seen him but it seems like he’s outgrown the AHL. I’d bet he plays a lot of hockey for the Avs this year.

I agree on Rosén...Sakic is very strategic and don’t believe it was just a throw-in player.

Leafs need DMen and already have very few prospects. He was penciled into the NHL lineup until he hurt his ankle. He was their top AHL DMen last season and might have been a 2nd Team All-Star.

Wouldn’t be surprised he gets a few games with Graves on the bottom pairing. He is quick and smooth skater, with excellent passing abilities. Lacks toughness and can be overly aggressive in the offensive zone.

Might be a future replacement for Big Z or packaged in another trade. Just don’t believe Sakic is done with another deal a possibility.

 

[tucker3434]

The left side right now are Girard and Zadorov. There’s no reason we can’t give Byram o-zone and preferential matchups.

I still don’t get the rush with Byram though.

There’s only so many favorable minutes to dole out. We’ve got to have guys in the lineup that’ll take d zone matchups and PK. As of now, we’ve already got 3 guys that won’t do much of that in Girard, Byram, and Makar. A 4th is unlikely.

And there’s no rush with Byram. He probably will end up back in Vancouver, but I think Sakic will give him his shot. He won’t fill his spot before camp even starts.

 

[Richard88]

I think a lot of us might be sleeping on Calle Rosen. I think after making that trade Sakic hopes Rosen will be our 5/6/7 D.

Rosen wasn’t a throw in. The leafs were high on him and wouldn’t have given him up to simply clear a roster space. I haven’t really seen him but it seems like he’s outgrown the AHL. I’d bet he plays a lot of hockey for the Avs this year.

I agree on Rosén...Sakic is very strategic and don’t believe it was just a throw-in player.

Leafs need DMen and already have very few prospects. He was penciled into the NHL lineup until he hurt his ankle. He was their top AHL DMen last season and might have been a 2nd Team All-Star.

Wouldn’t be surprised he gets a few games with Graves on the bottom pairing. He is quick and smooth skater, with excellent passing abilities. Lacks toughness and can be overly aggressive in the offensive zone.

Might be a future replacement for Big Z or packaged in another trade. Just don’t believe Sakic is done with another deal a possibility.

I agree with both of you.

I think Rosén has a good chance of getting significant gametime on the 3rd pairing this season due to his ability to jump into the play and make quick passes from the backend. Being able to roll out 3 defensive pairings with a good puck mover on each pair (Girard/Makar/Rosén) would allow us to control the play for 60 minutes, rather than having a couple of cloggers on the 3rd pairing icing the puck half the time (eg. Nemeth).

Moreover, looking at the contract situations for 2020-21, as the only depth guy with a 2 year contract - and at a modest $750k caphit, Rosén probably has the best chance out of all our depth defenseman to still be on the roster in 2020-21, maybe even as a Zadorov replacement once Byram makes the team. He's also 4 years younger than Connauton and Barberio which fits the age profile of this team well going forward.

• Connauton...... $1.375m / 1 year
• Barberio .......... $1.45m / 1 year
• Graves .............. $735k / 1 year
• Rosén .............. $750k / 2 years

• Zadorov ........... $3.2m / 1 year
• Cole ................. $4.25m / 2 years

Based on those contracts it looks to me like we're planning ahead towards having a defense that looks something like this in 2020-21:

Girard ---- Makar
Byram ---- Johnson
Cole ------ Timmins/Meloche
Rosén

Of course, if Cole turns out to be a sinkhole this season maybe we try to move him and keep Zadorov for another year, but either way Zadorov probably won't fit long-term as a 3rd pairing guy making $4m+.

Fwiw, I had a closer look at Rosén earlier today and made a post in another thread about him, linked here for reference:

Just been watching some clips of Calle Rosén, including this one:



From that video you can tell that he's a smooth skater, and that he likes to jump into the play on offence. Best examples of that are at 4:30 and at 15:05 when he scores a goal off the rush.

He's also likes to make quick passes out of the D-zone, often stretch passes. That said, at times his breakout passes can be a little bit careless leading to turnovers.

He's pretty fast at getting back on the backcheck (good example of that at 6:20). However, he doesn't seem to be very strong along the boards so that's definitely an area he needs to work on. He knows this too, as in this interview from May this year he talked specifically about the need to get stronger and spending many hours in the gym.

A lot of clips in this video were of him on the PK where he does reasonably well.

In the video below there are also numerous examples of his shooting and PP play from the Swedish league. He has a good shot, both slapper and wrister, as well as good agility to not look out of place on our second PP unit.



All-in-all, I'd say that he's a pretty solid acquisition. Acquiring him ensures that we have another smooth-skating puckmover at LHD who can play on the PP as well as PK. I'm not convinced by his defending, but hopefully getting stronger can improve that. He certainly fits our style of play though and I think he'll fit in quite seamlessly onto our 3rd pairing if and when he gets a shot.

 

[EdAVSfan]

There’s only so many favorable minutes to dole out. We’ve got to have guys in the lineup that’ll take d zone matchups and PK. As of now, we’ve already got 3 guys that won’t do much of that in Girard, Byram, and Makar. A 4th is unlikely.

And there’s no rush with Byram. He probably will end up back in Vancouver, but I think Sakic will give him his shot. He won’t fill his spot before camp even starts.

Makar doesn’t enter the conversation as he’s playing on the right.

The left side is Girard, Zadorov and Byram, if he stays. Zadorov is going to get the most of the D-zone starts. Byram the least, and Girard somewhere in the middle. Girard played many minutes with EJ. He was already not getting that high ozone starts to begin with.

But your argument is not making sense.
You’ve suggested that the Avs can’t get or shouldn’t get Gardiner. But he would likely be used in the same manner as Byram. If Byram is sent back to juniors for more development time, this is exactly the position that would be open.

Zadorov would be given the brunt of defensive zone starts and Gardiner and Girard to split the rest.

 

[tucker3434]

Makar doesn’t enter the conversation as he’s playing on the right.

The left side is Girard, Zadorov and Byram, if he stays. Zadorov is going to get the most of the D-zone starts. Byram the least, and Girard somewhere in the middle. Girard played many minutes with EJ. He was already not getting that high ozone starts to begin with.

But your argument is not making sense.
You’ve suggested that the Avs can’t get or shouldn’t get Gardiner. But he would likely be used in the same manner as Byram. If Byram is sent back to juniors for more development time, this is exactly the position that would be open.

Zadorov would be given the brunt of defensive zone starts and Gardiner and Girard to split the rest.

That’s fine if Gardiner is still available in mid to late October when Byram is sent down. As it is now, I doubt Sakic wants to enter game 1 with all 4 of them.

More realistically, I’d guess Rosen will be given the opportunity once Byram goes down.

 

[EdAVSfan]

That’s fine if Gardiner is still available in mid to late October when Byram is sent down. As it is now, I doubt Sakic wants to enter game 1 with all 4 of them.

More realistically, I’d guess Rosen will be given the opportunity once Byram goes down.

That I can definitely agree and understand.

 

[rmthomson21]

Depending on price, obviously, any thoughts on Michael Stone?

 

[Richard88]

Depending on price, obviously, any thoughts on Michael Stone?

It would be nice to have a RHD on the 3rd pairing, but we've already got enough 29-30 year old depth guys as it is (Connauton/Barberio), and I'd much rather give Meloche a chance.