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Rumor: 2019 Free Agent Tranquility Part III

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Balthazar

Balthazar

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henchman24 said:
Who cares about Barbie... he can be gone or sent to the minors at any point. Meloche has to earn his shot. This is the year he needs to show he can be a top end AHL player worthy of a call up. The unknown on Timmins is a reason to go after a defensemen. The bottom pairing is really iffy with Cole's injury and the general lack of depth on the right side. Combine that with EJ's injury issues, I think the Avs should try to shore up the bottom pairing somehow. Either by getting a good LD to shift Z to the right... or getting a RD that can step up when injuries happen.
Click to expand...

Makar, Girard, EJ, Zadorov, Cole: 5 spots out of 6 taken.

That leaves one opening for Byram, Meloche, Timmins, Barberio, Graves. Why not wait to see who, if any, can make it?

It's not like we need to rush for a trade in case we miss out, bottom pairing dmen get traded all the time and carry the less trade value among all other roster spots (even less than 4th liners). There's no rush to trade for one before we know what we have.

Byram is more than likely getting at least 9 games and if Cole is coming back early december that's not even a big gap. Management isn't gunning for the Stanley Cup this year (at least not yet), no need to stock pile.
 
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henchman21

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Balthazar said:
Makar, Girard, EJ, Zadorov, Cole: 5 spots out of 6 taken.

That leaves one opening for Byram, Meloche, Timmins, Barberio, Graves. Why not wait to see who, if any, can make it?

It's not like we need to rush for a trade in case we miss out, bottom pairing dmen get traded all the time and carry the less trade value among all other roster spots (even less than 4th liners). There's no rush to trade for one before we know what we have.

Byram is more than likely getting at least 9 games and if Cole is coming back early december that's not even a big gap. Management isn't gunning for the Stanley Cup this year (at least not yet).
Click to expand...

Cole is out until December... so 4 of 6 spots are taken right now. We still don't fully know on EJ and he doesn't have the greatest history. So that leaves 2 openings right now. Graves and Barbario are fodder and 7/8 defensemen. Don't care a lick about them. Meloche and Timmins should both start in the AHL, but if one of the two is up, I'd guess it is Timmins. Byram should go back to junior, but I do expect him to start and maybe stay in the NHL. So even with Byram, 5 of 6 spots are taken. With the UFAs out there, you can get one with just money... and if they don't work, you can still trade down the line. Though the Avs lacking a 2nd round pick next year will hurt them in negotiations for a defender trade.

They need to be gunning for the Stanley Cup this year. The window is absolutely open and they need to try for it.
 
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Pierce Hawthorne

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Richard88 said:
I think you're being overly cautious regarding Timmins and especially Meloche.

Last season Meloche already looked a level above the AHL, and this is his last ELC year so this season would be the ideal time to give him a real shot.

Once Cole is back our D will be strong again (though admittedly he may take a while to get up to speed):

Girard --- Johnson
Zadorov -- Makar
Cole ----- Connauton/Barberio/Graves/Rosén/Byram/Timmins/Meloche
Click to expand...


No, you are just being biased as an Avs fan.


Timmins hasn't played hockey in over a year. And Meloche was most certainly not our best Dedender on the Eagles last year. What you are saying is just not true at all.
 
Richard88

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Pierce Hawthorne said:
No, you are just being biased as an Avs fan.

Timmins hasn't played hockey in over a year. And Meloche was most certainly not our best Dedender on the Eagles last year. What you are saying is just not true at all.
Click to expand...
I probably am being a bit biased. And you're also slowly winning me over on the adding a RHD argument. :thumbu:

Along with your voice-of-reason posts what also makes me more inclined to consider adding a good RHD is the capspace acrual which I had forgotten about. Adding a $4-6m RHD would still leave enough capspace at the deadline for a move at someone like Kreider or Hall.

The only question is what it would take to acquire a decent RHD?
 
henchman21

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Richard88 said:
The only question is what it would take to acquire a decent RHD?
Click to expand...

They should only use cash... McQuaid or Stone are solid enough if you want defensive guys (though I'd imagine Stone is packing his bags for Vegas as we speak). Shatty is the offensive guy. Don't pay over 1.5m and don't go over a season. I'd go with Shatty. He gives back up offensively incase Girard/Byram/Makar stumble. Gardiner is likely out of the running here since Toronto, Montreal, or Buffalo is where he'll end up.
 
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Pierce Hawthorne

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henchman24 said:
That would honestly solve it for 3 seasons... don't imagine the Avs would go that route though.
Click to expand...

No. I think they have faith in EJ staying healthy and/or Timmins becoming a Top 4 guy. I get the Timmins part but I have next to zero faith in EJ at this point.


Martinez would be another guy I'd move assets to get(But not the same kind of assets as I would with Risto).


If Tanev wasn't made of glass like EJ hes be a good fit for one year also.
 
henchman21

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If the Avs struggle at RD, I'm fully expecting a play for Savard. Columbus needs to re-coup some pieces and they have enough at RD they can cover the Savard loss.
 
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Foxtail

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Richard88 said:
I probably am being a bit biased. And you're also slowly winning me over on the adding a RHD argument. :thumbu:

Along with your voice-of-reason posts what also makes me more inclined to consider adding a good RHD is the capspace acrual which I had forgotten about. Adding a $4-6m RHD would still leave enough capspace at the deadline for a move at someone like Kreider or Hall.

The only question is what it would take to acquire a decent RHD?
Click to expand...
Cole will likely be playing right d and perhaps Connaughton if Rosen or Byram make the team .
 
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Foppa2118

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The only way they trade for a RD under contract for more than a year is if Timmins struggles this season. They're still very high on his potential and they're not gonna take away the final spot for him in the lineup.

My guess is some feel the answer is to trade EJ, except that's what they want to do. There's no reason to believe the Avs want to trade EJ at this point. In fact, with the way he stuck with the team and mentored the young guys, I doubt Sakic wants to trade him before his contract ends.
 
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Perratrooper

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Richard88 said:
Good point, I had totally forgotten about that.

I ran the numbers on cap accrual, and our deadline capspace would be a bit lower than $25-30m, but still really high.

Assuming that Rantanen gets $10m, that puts our total cap at $75m (against a cap of $81.5m)

The regular season starts on October 2, 2019 and ends on April 4, 2020 = 185 days

Start of regular season on October 2, 2019 to trade deadline on February 24, 2020 = 145 days

145/185 = 0.784

$75m x 0.784 = $58.7m.

$81.5 - $58.7m = $22.7m


Even if we added another $4-6m player we'd still have tons of space for a deadline acquisition:

Adding $4m player (cap of $79m)
  • $79m x 0.784 = $61.9m
  • $81.5m - $61.9m = $19.6m
Adding a $5m player (cap of $80m)
  • $80m x 0.784 = $62.7m
  • $81.5m - $62.7m = $18.8m
Adding a $6m player (cap of $81m)
  • $81m x 0.784 = $63.5m
  • $81.5m - $63.5m = $18m

With that in mind, I really hope Sakic has a plan to acquire some bad 1 year contracts to gain some picks before the season starts.

Some ideas:
  • Craig Anderson .... $4.75m / 1 year....... Ottawa's caphit is now at $65.8m, which is $5.6m above the $60.2m cap floor. As such, they can move Anderson and still be cap compliant, while saving Eugene $4.75m at the cost of picks, which Ottawa have a lot of. With Anderson we would have a veteran NHL'er to be our No.3 and AHL starter.
  • James Reimer .... $3.4m / 2 years.... I recently made a detailed post on why this might make sense for both Carolina and Colorado, here.
  • Mike Condon .... $2.4m / 1 year ... Tampa acquired him to get rid of Callahan, but in doing so increased their cap hit. They've got too many goalies and would be glad to flip Condon.
  • Patrick Eaves..... $3.15m / 1 year.... Anaheim are in a rebuild so probably wouldn't want to give up good picks but rather ride this one out. Might still be able to get something like a mid or late round pick though which is something.
  • Brandon Manning ... $2.25m / 1 year ..... Edmonton are tight up against the cap and taking this contract off their hands would help them find capspace to resign Puljujarvi and sign a 3C (eg. Brassard).
Click to expand...

Forgive me if I'm mistaken, but if you're accounting for a $10 mil cap hit for Rantanen and he hasn't signed yet, would his cap hit not be higher based upon your analysis?

I've never looked into the details of cap during the course of the season, so a players cap hit changes as the season goes on? I thought it was a standard cap hit throughout and it's just a matter of money to be paid that changed throughout the year. If you (or anyone else) could either explain or guide me in the direction to research this I'd greatly appreciate it!
 
Richard88

Richard88

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Perratrooper said:
Forgive me if I'm mistaken, but if you're accounting for a $10 mil cap hit for Rantanen and he hasn't signed yet, would his cap hit not be higher based upon your analysis?

I've never looked into the details of cap during the course of the season, so a players cap hit changes as the season goes on? I thought it was a standard cap hit throughout and it's just a matter of money to be paid that changed throughout the year. If you (or anyone else) could either explain or guide me in the direction to research this I'd greatly appreciate it!
Click to expand...
I was assuming that Rantanen would sign before the start of the season. If he were to sign once the season is underway I think his caphit would effectively be higher as you'd be paying the same salary but over a shorter time. I think that's what happened with Nylander last season for example.

That said, I'm probably not the best person to explain these cap rules because I'm not too familiar with them myself.
 
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Richard88

Richard88

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Pierce Hawthorne said:
1st, Jost, Kaut, Zadorov


Not saying all of those pieces for Risto by any means. But I'd offer up one of those as the main piece, possibly 2 depending on the trade, along with other pieces.
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That seems a little steep.

I was thinking Bowers + 2nd (2021) + Connauton would be a reasonable offer, but I suppose Buffalo would want at least one player with 2nd line upside in the deal.

Maybe Bowers + 2nd + Zadorov?

Or Jost + 2nd + Connauton?

I think Zadorov for Ristolainen would be an interesting move, but doing it now would leave us a bit short of quality at LHD instead of RHD, at least until Cole is back and/or Byram has made the team.

Girard ---------- Makar
Connauton ---- Ristolainen
Cole/Byram --- Johnson
Rosén

Maybe Jost could become expendable if he doesn't start the season well, but I get the sense that Sakic is really high on him and willing to be patient. If Kamenev does enough to earn the 3C spot we might be more open to moving Jost though, and just bump one of Compher or Donskoi up to the 2nd line and run with this until the deadline:

Landeskog --- Mackinnon -- Rantanen
Burakovsky ---- Kadri -------- Donskoi
Wilson -------- Kamenev ---- Compher
Nieto --------- Bellemare ---- Calvert

Kamenev seems like a bit of a 'king maker' on our roster, because him taking a step up would make him too good to be the 13th forward and also make someone else more expendable.
 
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Avs_19

Avs_19

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SoundwaveIsCharisma said:
What we need to do is:

Acquire Ristolainen; now we have the 2015-edition Sabres future defensive pairing
Acquire Fabbro; now we have the 2016 Predators future defensive pairing
Pair Byram and Makar.

Run with the future, franchise pairings for the Sabres, Predators and Avs. Franchise defense?
Click to expand...

Preds are fine but I'd rather not do anything like the Sabres. Do the opposite of whatever it is they do and that includes believing in Ristolainen. Also, does this mean the Avs need Fenton too?
 
Richard88

Richard88

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Avs_19 said:
Preds are fine but I'd rather not do anything like the Sabres. Do the opposite of whatever it is they do and that includes believing in Ristolainen. Also, does this mean the Avs need Fenton too?
Click to expand...
If Buffalo want to trade Ristolainen away, wouldn't the opposite of that be to trade for him? ;)
 
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