I think they are saying if Duchene comes back. If we get Duchene back honestly it'll be close to a win. Duchene is a near-elite player
What Avs got from the Sens :
1) 4th OA pick in 2019
2) Turris (but good for them they did well trading him instead of giving him a similar contract to what he got, which looks already like a burden after 1 season)
3) Shane Bowers
4) 63rd OA in 2019
What the Sens got from Avs and Jackets :
1) 19th OA pick in 2019 (not 100% guaranteed yet, but most likely)
2) Vitali Abramov
3) Jonathan Davidsson
4) Matt Duchene 118 games as a Senator (it didn't work out well in terms of team performance but individually, Duchene had 107 pts in 118 games)
5) Avs paying Hammond's remaining salary (~ 1 M$)
Then there's 2 possible scenarios where the Sens get something more :
- Conditional 1st in 2020 if Duchene re-signs with the Jackets
- Conditional Matt Duchene long-term if he re-signs with the Sens
If Duchene signs with Ottawa (which is obviously not likely with current ownership but you never know), this trade could become a "win" easily, also depending on picks and prospects. Now, there's also the chance that the Sens first round pick becomes better than the Avs 4th OA (if they hit a homerun ala Chabot or Karlsson it could be somewhat easy)
Now let's say Abramov for Bowers is a wash and Davidsson for the 3rd is a wash too. Let's also say that Duchene as a "rental" + Hammond dump + conditional 1st/Duchene re-signing in Ottawa for Turris is a wash too, it'll come down to that 4th OA vs that 19th OA. Pressure is on the Avs making the right pick and developing it. Sens have shown they are actually quite good at the draft table.
If Duchene re-signs in Ottawa, the losers will be the Jackets, not the Avs that still got a good return for him no matter what. Preds are already a big loser in that trade that involved 4 different teams. If the Jackets can re-sign Duchene, then they could be loser too as the price paid would have been two first round picks (and who knows the one next year could be?) and 2 good/decent prospects.
In the end, a LOT remains to be seen to draw any conclusion. That would be foolish to. If Dorion manages to salvage this trade, I'll be a lot less critical in the future