Prospect Info: 2019 Draft

[MinJaBen]

Since it's draft week, here's my official guess post for our pick at No. 28.

I posted about what I thought the Canes should be looking for in another post and I centered around about five players. Now keep in mind, it's *very* likely -- extraordinarily likely, even -- that most of us are saying "we could have gotten this guy with one of our second-rounders" after our pick. But there are only seven picks between our first and our back-to-back seconds, and only ANA, BUF, BOS, OTT, LA, NJ, DET make picks in there. I think it's incredibly likely we get three guys out of four or five on our list, so who goes 28th vs. who goes 36/37 is kinda irrelevant, IMO. There's a tier of players around 22-40, IMO, and all of them are good picks at any of our three slots.

To start, if any of these players are available, my Guaranteed Pick TM is null and void and we should take him: Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko, Dylan Cozens, Alex Turcotte, Bowen Byram, Vasily Podkolzin, Kirby Dach, Cole Caufield, Trevor Zegras, Matthew Boldy, Peyton Krebs, Alex Newhook, Spencer Knight, Arthur Kaliyev or Philip Tomasino.

So, I basically grouped these guys together and picked the one I thought fit our needs best. The guys were: Patrik Puistola, Bobby Brink, Nils Hoglander, Nick Robertson and Jakob Pelletier. And the guy in that group that I think will be the best NHL player is Nick Robertson, so he's my pick.

Along with Brink, Hoglander and Pelletier, Robertson is on the small size at 5-9, 160. The difference, to me at least, is upside. As one of the youngest players in the draft (Sept. 11, 2001, yes, *that* Sept. 11), Robertson has barely begun to scratch the surface. Despite his age, Robertson finished in the top 10 of several fitness categories at the combine. He's got Saarela's shot/release, Foegele's work ethic, as well as great speed/edges and a high hockey IQ. He rocked up Central Scouting's list from 30 at mid-season to 17 after the season.

His comparatively low numbers are mostly the result of a wrist injury suffered in 2018 that cost him a few months. But looking at his shot the second half of the season, he's obviously got no lasting effects. IMO, if he had a full, injury-free season this year, we'd be talking about this guy in the 10-20 range, if not higher.

I'm a bit miffed by McKenzie's ranking having him at 42. Maybe the kid is a jerk, or a lousy interview. These are things I can't know. But with the type players ranked around 25-40 and us having three picks, I think we can afford to jump up and grab a guy with this kind of upside.

If central scouting has him at 17, do you think he’ll make it to 28 at the draft?

 

[My Special Purpose]

Your phrasing here may in fact imply that you know this, but regardless, here's everyone's annual reminder that McKenzie's ranking is a collection of opinions from his sources from various teams around the league, not his own opinion. Don't shoot the messenger.

Nevermind. Thanks.

 

[My Special Purpose]

If central scouting has him at 17, do you think he’ll make it to 28 at the draft?

Central Scouting separates everybody out, so he's No. 17 North American skater. Add in Spencer Knight and European Skaters and he should be there for sure.

 

[GoldiFox]

Since it's draft week, here's my official guess post for our pick at No. 28.

I posted about what I thought the Canes should be looking for in another post and I centered around about five players. Now keep in mind, it's *very* likely -- extraordinarily likely, even -- that most of us are saying "we could have gotten this guy with one of our second-rounders" after our pick. But there are only seven picks between our first and our back-to-back seconds, and only ANA, BUF, BOS, OTT, LA, NJ, DET make picks in there. I think it's incredibly likely we get three guys out of four or five on our list, so who goes 28th vs. who goes 36/37 is kinda irrelevant, IMO. There's a tier of players around 22-40, IMO, and all of them are good picks at any of our three slots.

To start, if any of these players are available, my Guaranteed Pick TM is null and void and we should take him: Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko, Dylan Cozens, Alex Turcotte, Bowen Byram, Vasily Podkolzin, Kirby Dach, Cole Caufield, Trevor Zegras, Matthew Boldy, Peyton Krebs, Alex Newhook, Spencer Knight, Arthur Kaliyev or Philip Tomasino.

So, I basically grouped these guys together and picked the one I thought fit our needs best. The guys were: Patrik Puistola, Bobby Brink, Nils Hoglander, Nick Robertson and Jakob Pelletier. And the guy in that group that I think will be the best NHL player is Nick Robertson, so he's my pick.

Along with Brink, Hoglander and Pelletier, Robertson is on the small size at 5-9, 160. The difference, to me at least, is upside. As one of the youngest players in the draft (Sept. 11, 2001, yes, *that* Sept. 11), Robertson has barely begun to scratch the surface. Despite his age, Robertson finished in the top 10 of several fitness categories at the combine. He's got Saarela's shot/release, Foegele's work ethic, as well as great speed/edges and a high hockey IQ. He rocked up Central Scouting's list from 30 at mid-season to 17 after the season.

His comparatively low numbers are mostly the result of a wrist injury suffered in 2018 that cost him a few months. But looking at his shot the second half of the season, he's obviously got no lasting effects. IMO, if he had a full, injury-free season this year, we'd be talking about this guy in the 10-20 range, if not higher.

I'm a bit miffed by McKenzie's ranking having him at 42. Maybe the kid is a jerk, or a lousy interview. These are things I can't know. But with the type players ranked around 25-40 and us having three picks, I think we can afford to jump up and grab a guy with this kind of upside.

Black Book has 2 different NHL scout quotes saying how great of an interview Robertson is. His brother is 6'2", 200 lbs so he may have some room to grow as one of the youngest players in the Draft.

I still like Jamieson Rees more for many of the same reasons. Ideally the Canes could pick up 2-3 of these types. Bob McKenzie said that 25-50 is interchangeable. There is a lot of potential there.

Prospect board regular Brock has a good writeup on the OHL:
OHL Prospects: My Final Top 50 OHL Players for the 2019 NHL Entry Draft - Part 4: 10-1
OHL Prospects: Final Media/Scout Poll for the 2019 NHL Draft

 

[My Special Purpose]

I still like Jamieson Rees more for many of the same reasons. Ideally the Canes could pick up 2-3 of these types. Bob McKenzie said that 25-50 is interchangeable. There is a lot of potential there.

I considered Rees as well, but if somebody wants to take him before 36, I say let them. His injury history is much scarier than Robertson's, IMO, and Rees just can't touch Robertson's top-end skill when it comes to shooting. I know Robertson's brother is prototypical NHL size, but Nick was born two months early, so although possible, I don't think it's likely he grows much, if at all. I think his runt-ness is permanent.

 

[raynman]

Don’t care who they pick I’m still going to be disappointed

 

[tarheelhockey]

Don’t care who they pick I’m still going to be disappointed

The great thing about this year is, if we absolutely savage the pick before we know anything about it, the odds are against any embarrassing future revenge-bumps. We can just open up the cannons and let this poor schmuck have it.

 

[Led Tasso]

Anyone else feel like they didn't try this year with the NHL Draft hat designs? Probably some of the more boring Draft Day hats in recent memory

 

[Mildan]

I just read free scouting draft guide that had Robertson at 12th. He had Aho at 11th at 2015 draft and Robertsons comparison was Aho straight up.

 

[Mildan]

The draft guide was posted at least on Colorado main draft thread today

 

[GoldiFox]

I just read free scouting draft guide that had Robertson at 12th. He had Aho at 11th at 2015 draft and Robertsons comparison was Aho straight up.

Anyone with Aho ranked #11 at the 2015 draft was a time traveler. I can't believe that is true. That draft was stacked. Kyle Connor and Matt Barzal went in the late teens. The highest I saw Aho ranked was Pronman putting him around #30.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Anyone with Aho ranked #11 at the 2015 draft was a time traveler. I can't believe that is true. That draft was stacked. Kyle Connor and Matt Barzal went in the late teens. The highest I saw Aho ranked was Pronman putting him around #30.

Evidently, he's got receipts:

My comparable for him is Sebastian Aho although they are clearly not the same size. What I do find similar is the elite vision and hockey sense. That’s what led me to rank Aho 11thin 2015 and I thought it was a massive oversight that he ended up a 2nd round pick. I can potentially see a similar situation with Nicholas Robertson and he’s selected on Day 2 of the draft like Aho. Whoever ends up selecting him will not be disappointed.

 

[GoldiFox]

Evidently, he's got receipts:

Could still be a time traveler

All I'm saying is that Aho was a fringe prospect (3rd+ round ranked) in 2015 and that draft was insanely stacked. McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Marner, Hanifin, Zacha, Provorov, Werenski, Meier, Rantanen, Connor, Barzal, Konecny, Crouse, Boeser, DeBrusk, etc. If this guy ranked Aho at #11 in that class then the Canes should hire him AND draft Robertson.

 

[Lempo]

The first appearance of Doctor Doom had him use a time machine to send the Fantastic Four to the past to fetch Blackbeard's magic pearls for him, for reasons.

So I'm kind of open for someone to risk tearing up the spacetime continuunuum just for to claim some HF cred.

It may well be he's the one responsible for the two Sebastians Aho glitch.

 

[cptjeff]

Anyone else feel like they didn't try this year with the NHL Draft hat designs? Probably some of the more boring Draft Day hats in recent memory

Just looked, and I really like them. Classic and wearable rather than the tacky nascar rejects the draft hats often look like.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Thanks a lot Kev. Now I have my hopes up for this Robertson guy.

 

[MinJaBen]

Thanks a lot Kev. Now I have my hopes up for this Robertson guy.

With the 27th pick in the 2019 NHL draft, the Tampa Bay Lightning are proud to select...

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Dislike

 

[MinJaBen]

ooops...

 

[emptyNedder]

Lesson honestly scares me a bit. At least with an early 2nd. If he's there at 59 i'm all over it, but bigger d+1 guys dominating is nothing unheard of. Sometimes you get a Morgan Geekie type out of that, sometimes it's merely a guy that's so much more physically mature than the rest that he can dominate that way and things go back to reality once they hit the ahl.

I felt much the same way (in fact the first time Leason was mentioned in this forum, I was not optimistic). However, I am one of those folks who gives the u20 world championships significant value. Leason produced better than Tippett and Suzuki. I definitely wouldn't use the first round pick, but if the Canes pick two smallish skill guys (any of Robertson/Hoglander/Puistola/Pelletier/Brink/Rees) then going for an above-average skater who is 6'4" is the type of boom pick that makes sense at 37.

 

[emptyNedder]

As one of the youngest players in the draft (Sept. 11, 2001, yes, *that* Sept. 11), Robertson has barely begun to scratch the surface.

I'm sold.
Also, I like the theory that younger players have extra upside. I hope the Canes take Martin Lang with one of the picks in the 6th. Thomas Pelletier is one of my two favorites along with Grayson Ladd in the 7th.
Lang is the youngest player available having a 9/15 birthday. With a ppg production next season he would be seen as a late 2nd if born one day later.
Pelletier has an August birthday, good size (6'3", 192) and my model likes him (PSF = 1.61).

 

[Led Tasso]

Just looked, and I really like them. Classic and wearable rather than the tacky nascar rejects the draft hats often look like.

Well I do believe there is a happy a nascar reject hat and this...

 

[zman77]

Sleeper Picks: 2019 NHL Draft
By Steven Ellis, June 12, 2019

Antti Tuomisto, D, 18 (Assat, Finland U-20 – No. 15 EU)
6' 4" 194 lbs., Shoots Right
When I put a feeler out on Twitter to find out who other people liked as potential steals for the draft, Tuomisto was one that came up multiple times. And there’s a good reason why: Tuomisto had an impressive 26 assists and 35 points in 45 games to go along with 15 assists in 19 games with Finland’s U-18 team. These are impressive numbers for any forward, but Tuomisto is a big 6-foot-4 defenseman. Tuomisto is a guy that really rose up the rankings this season and has true top-four upside in the NHL given his offensive production and impressive work ethic.

Trevor Janicke, RW, 18 (Central Illinois, USHL – No. 119 NA)
5'10" 194 lbs., Shoots Right
A Christmas Day 2000 birthday meant Janicke had to wait an extra year to get drafted, but NHL teams could be looking at one of the best underdogs in the draft class. Committed to the University of Notre Dame, Janicke is a graduate of the USA Hockey National Team Development Program and spent the past season plying his trade in the USHL, where he scored 22 goals and 48 points. Janicke is a physical two-way center, and while he isn’t a huge point producer, he’s a worthwhile gamble, especially if he’s still available in the fourth or fifth round
2019 NHL Draft: 10 players who have potential to become late-round steals - TheHockeyNews

 

[My Special Purpose]

Thanks a lot Kev. Now I have my hopes up for this Robertson guy.

I'm a middle-aged man and I may legitimately cry if we don't get him. That's the last time I do 100 hours of research on a bunch of freakin' 17-year-olds.

 

[MinJaBen]

I'm a middle-aged man and I may legitimately cry if we don't get him. That's the last time I do 100 hours of research on a bunch of freakin' 17-year-olds.

It’s hard to correctly guess who a team will take in positions 5-10, I have no idea who we will take in the 28-37 slots, so I’m not investing myself in these kids.