Prospect Info: 2019 Draft

[emptyNedder]

I will have a few posts laying out what I see as the Canes draft considerations and needs.
TLDR

Here are the basics:

• I agree with TD that forwards make sense in the first round--in fact I think the first four picks in 2019 should be forwards;
• The presumption is that the Canes make the playoffs. So their draft positions are 21, 52, 83, etc.;
• The Canes have the core in place (Aho, TT, Svechnikov, Slavin, and Pesce) for the next 5 seasons;
• The Canes have key players for two years (Hamilton) or longer (Niederreiter, de Haan, Staal);
• Williams is likely to play two more seasons;
• Necas should join the core;
• Even without Fox, the D is a team strength and there are three players in Charlotte who could play in the NHL next season;
• Between the current roster and players in Charlotte there are enough players to create two fourth lines;
• The organization has one goalie who is likely NHL-ready in 2019 and two that could be ready by 2021;
• With the current core and Williams eventual retirement, the big club will continue to need more offensive-minded right-shot forwards.

Given all that, the strategy for the 2019 draft should be to find one forward (preferably a right-shot) who will be contributing 20 goals by 2022--think Konecny or Beauvillier from the 2015 draft or Kempe from 2014. The secondary strategy should be to find a hidden-gem D-man in the middle/late rounds and add to the goalie depth.

Click to read more...

 

[emptyNedder]

Some may disagree with a few of the points mentioned above--of course I will disagree with some of the above in another week.

Based on those points, I think the Canes should draft by position as follows:
1st Rd (pick 21): Forward, offense-minded, right shot if possible.
2nd Rd (pick 39 from Buffalo): Forward, offense-minded, right-shot if possible.
2nd Rd (pick 52): Forward--look for the most high reward player.
3rd Rd (pick 83): Forward--take one more shot at finding an offense-minded center or winger who can complement the core.
4th Rd (pick 114): Defenseman, preferably a right-shot. This is the round that produced Slavin, Mattias Ekholm, and Victor Mete.
5th Rd through 7th round: pick two goalies; and two more defensemen who have similarities to late round gems like Jared Spurgeon and Markus Nutivaara.

It is easy to say the team should draft late-round defensemen who will make it in the NHL. Obviously there are many, many more who never earn contracts than become Spurgeon or Nutivaara. However, there might be a way to identify sleepers. More in the next post.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Caulfield.

 

[emptyNedder]

My son has a touch of Rain Man in him. He is also a pretty typical teenager. Anyway, I mentioned Anton Dubinchuk's post with the dart analogy. He played on his computer for a while and then told me there was a "pretty simple" formula that correlated with the success D-men drafted after the second round. I work with formulas for a living, so I know that they often can find correlations that experienced professionals (much like hockey scouts) miss.
My son and I call the formula PSF (Pesce/Slavin factor). When it approaches or surpasses 1.0 in a prospect's draft year he exceeds his draft position.
For example the PSF and draft round of several players:

Slavin (4th Rd) = 1.50
Pesce (3rd Rd) = 1.20
Mattias Ekholm (4th Rd) = 1.67
Jared Spurgeon (6th Rd) = 1.68
David Savard (4th Rd) = 1.11
Markus Nutivaara (7th Rd) = 2.27
Victor Mete (4th Rd) = 2.53

I completely understand that correlation doesn't equal causation. Also, there are a good number of late round D-men who have poor PSFs:
Josh Manson (6th Rd) = .29
Colin Miller (5th Rd) = .23

Interestingly, for John Klingberg who was drafted in the 5th round there isn't reliable data because he played in three leagues in his draft year.

I obviously haven't done any true statistical tests on the reliability of the factor, but based on the limited sample it seems reasonable. It uses available data to compare a prospect's success to his teammates and other draft eligible players in his league.

It seems to work best for players who are rated outside the top 50 or so prospects during their draft year. I am pretty sure that is because it is easy for scouts to identify speed, vision, etc., but less easy to differentiate players who don't stand out in any visible areas.

I would share the formula, but this is where my son being a typical teenager comes in. He is convinced that the Canes staff will hear about it and reach out to him (so if any of you regulars are indeed Canes staff, let me know).

I assure you the factor does use hockey-related data and is not overly complex. I can calculate it for any past or current prospect if any you of would like. In my prospect section of this thread I will include it for some of the defensemen who will be available in the 4th and later rounds.

 

[emptyNedder]

Caulfield.

I presume you mean Cole Caufield. He would be my first choice, but is almost surely gone when the Canes pick in the first round. If the Canes miss the playoffs and have the 16th pick there is about a 20% chance (based on all the lists that currently rank players) that Caufield will still be on the board.

If you meant Judd Caulfield, he should be available in the 3rd round when the Canes pick. I think he would be reasonable, but I have at least two other forwards I think will be available at that spot who seem to have more upside.

I will try to post my mock draft this evening.

 

[SvechneJerk]

@42 jerks - Not that you've got anything else going on, but...

 

[Bunch of Jurcos]

So I will be the sacrifical lamb and be the one to ask, why not Spencer Knight?

 

[DougieSmash]

Matthew Boldy

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

So I will be the sacrifical lamb and be the one to ask, why not Spencer Knight?

My personal preference is to not draft goalies in the first.

 

[ookhaab]

My personal preference is to not draft goalies in the first.

Agree, unless he drops to early 2nd so we can use BUF's 2nd, we should draft goalscoring talent.

 

[zman77]

Connor McMichael: London Knights
Left Shot Centre, 6'0 170lbs.
Could be a nice fit for the Carolina Hurricanes.
Seen him play around 100 games and he's been consistently good all season.
“McMichael is shoot-first centre and one of the best players in the draft class at getting to the net. From the CHL Tracking Project, McMichael gets more shots from the top of the crease than 99 percent of 400 CHL forwards. The variety is what makes McMichael so dangerous--one-timers, deflections, pouncing on rebounds--you name it, he'll finish it. While McMichael isn't much of a puck carrier through the neutral zone, he's a crafty playmaker around the goal.” (Mitch Brown)
“A two-way guy whom I really wonder if his offensive game will translate well to the NHL as his numbers really are driven from working harder and reading the play better than his junior aged opponents do. His intelligence is high-end as is his work ethic, and ability to find open ice to get his shot off. He is a natural leader so even if he does not end up a top six NHL scorer I would not bet against a long pro career as a do-it-all type third line contributor.” (Dan Stewart)

67 Gms

36 Goals

36 Assists

72Pts

19PIMs

+15

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ranked #29 by HOCKEYPROSPECT.COM
Ranked #21 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
Ranked #29 by ISS HOCKEY
Ranked #22 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #28 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)

 

[emptyNedder]

Matthew Boldy

Dougie--are you saying the Canes miss the playoffs? Because Boldy is 7-11 in all the rankings and mock drafts.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

So I will be the sacrifical lamb and be the one to ask, why not Spencer Knight?

Vegas needs to draft him.

It is his destiny.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Vegas needs to draft him.

It is his destiny.

You’re supposed to play for the name on the front of your jersey, not the back.

He can do both.

 

[emptyNedder]

April Mock Draft for Hurricanes:

1st--Phillip Tomasino (RW)
2nd (Buf)--Michal Teply (LW)
2nd--Maxim Cajkovic (RW)
3rd--Adam Beckman (C)
4th--Ryan Siedem (D--right shot)
5th--Roman Basran (G)
6th--Alexander Lundqvist (D--left shot)
6th--Zachary Jones (D--left shot)
7th--Dominic Basse (G)

Notes:
1st round--really the hardest choice as there are four players who could all end up being top-6 forwards, all are likely to be available at 21st: Tomasino, McMichael (zman makes a convincing argument); Bobby Brink who is dominant in the USHL; Jakob Pelletier who is lighting up the QMJHL. I have watched video of all these players on ProspecShifts (close to an hour of shift-by-shift for each). To be honest they all are impressive. I favor Tomasino for 4 reasons:
1) He is a right shot.
2) Brock Otten who coves the OHL has consistently ranked Tomasino slightly above McMichael. Otten stated this in January--"His speed and play with the puck is electric. His pace of attack consistently opens ups scoring lanes for Robertson and Thomas. But he's also not afraid to attack the middle of the ice or the crease. He's excelled by crashing the net as part of that trio, and just seems to have an infectious energy level."
3) Tomasino was much more productive the last half of the season and that has continued in the playoffs where he has 3g/3a in 5 games.
4) Tomasino is one of the younger players in the draft (July 2001 birthday). That seems to matter related to development in D+1 and D+2.

2nd round (Buf)--Teply's consensus ranking is around 50. However, he has been holding his own in a professional league. If he excels, as I expect, at the U18, I think most will see him as an early 2nd rounder. He is big (6'3") and aggressive with the puck. Also a right shot.

2nd round--This is a high risk/high reward pick. Cajkovic was listed in the 1st round in most preseason rankings. He was on a woeful Saint John team, which seemed to frustrate him. In international play he has consistently been one of the best offensive players. Yet another right shot.

3rd round--Beckman is flying under the radar. He was a rookie in the WHL who led his team in goals and +/-. Like Tomasino he had a strong first round of the playoffs with 3g/2a in 5 games.

4th round--Siedem is ranked 88th among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting. He has decent size at 6'2", 192. His USHL numbers are amazingly similar to Jaccob Slavin's at the same age. His PSF is 2.52.

5th round--Basran is ranked 11th by NHL Central Scouting for NA goalies. Though his numbers aren't outstanding, he outperformed the other goalie on his team and had several outstanding efforts.

6th round--Lundqvist is my favorite find. His PSF is 1.58. His numbers in his draft year are quite similar to Nik Lidstrom--who happens to be his uncle. Central Scouting ranks him 58th among European skaters. He made the Swedish Hlinka team. Definitely worth a 6th round pick.

6th round--Jones is third among D-men in points in the USHL. Central Scouting ranks him 143rd for NA skaters. His PSF is 1.08.

7th round--Basse is a 6'6" goalie. He has played in lower junior leagues, but has always put numbers near the top of each league. Central Scouting ranks him 24th among NA goalies.

 

[GoldiFox]

So I will be the sacrifical lamb and be the one to ask, why not Spencer Knight?

I like the idea of Knight, but not in the mid-1st. Maybe trade picks ~#35 (BUF) and ~#50 (CAR) for a late 1st and pick up Knight.

Bobby Brink is the one that stands out to me in my cursory glances this year. Looks like a winger version of Clayton Keller with similar Draft year numbers.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Since we are going to get the 21st overall, unless we make it to the ECFs:

Cole Caufield is a good value there. He will go to Wisconsin and maybe we call for him in a year or two. Maybe he makes the squad, who knows.
McMichael is my option # 2. seems like a 3 years in the Juniors type pick. Unfortunately, he may not learn as much 200 foot game as I would like there because he will be better than most players. defense and reading plays defensively seems to be his knock. Juniors really isnt the place to learn that.

With the 36th pick- we have to have an obligatory Finnish pick that Pitkanen has rated really high. C Henri Nitkanen- Had 11 points on the Finnish Juniors squad. Had 2 goals in 9 games playing with the big boys in Liiga. Not Finnish but Swedish Hoglanders, LW. Had a respectable 14 points in 50 games playing in the top league in Sweden. Antti Saarela, brother of our Saarela, maybe. He has done respectable in the Liiga as a 17 year old as well. The real positive of the European players is we can bring them into Charlotte as an 18 year old and have them for 2 years before their contract starts.

52nd pick- put some of the increased Russian scouting to good use? Daniil Gutik might be a good one at 6'3 RH winger. Put up 6 points on the Russian U-18 squad. I believe he is scheduled for the KHL next season. How about someone with a similar path as Svech in Russian born Oleg Zaitsev. Sounds a lot like Svech with his small area passing skills and being strong with the puck. He hasnt put up the same number of goals in Red Deer as Svech did in the OHL.

 

[FaulkYouAho]

a interesting name to me that we don't need in that position is Arthur Kaliyev. 102 Points in 67 games for a rebuilding Hamilton in the O. LW 6'2 and i belive 188LBS. ranked around 19-30 by most (11 by NHL Central scouting NA & 13 by bob). Even if we don't pick him i think he will be one of the better players to come out of this draft class.

Other options that i think would be good for the canes would be

Cole Caulfield
Philip Thomasino
Bobby Brink

Prospects that interests me that i would throw a 2nd rounder at

Leevi Aaltonen & Maxim Cajkovic

If you want more info like stats on them just lmk and i will post them.

A couple russians that could go undrafted or be thrown a late pick to try and aquire.

Dimitri Sheshin 5'7 143lbs 43P/45G in the MHL, most likely not going to become great or anything but he could... wouldn't mind throwing a pick at him in the 5th round.

Temate of Dimitri, Yegor Spiridonov. 41P/43G in the MHL, 6'2 192lbs. ranked 41 by Future Considerations and i would throw a later round into it.

 

[NotOpie]

Philip Thomasino - speed to burn, good hands, lots of skill...right shot. He's my long shot for our 1st round pick.

 

[Lempo]

Antti Saarela, brother of our Saarela, maybe. He has done respectable in the Liiga as a 17 year old as well. The real positive of the European players is we can bring them into Charlotte as an 18 year old and have them for 2 years before their contract starts.

Henri Nikkanen is the correct spelling, I'm not sure non-Finnish language on google can suggest the correction.

Re: the European Slide-eligibles, there is the trick in NHL/IIHF transfer agreement (and apparently in the CBA too): if they doesn't make the roster, they need to be offered back to the team they were Drafted from before you can Loan them (= send to AHL).

I think the transfer agreement excludes the 1st round Draftees from this, but with later round guys you need to be at least aware of this. It's also possible that the guy needs to be on existing contract with the Euro team in question (the NHL ELC supercedes the IIHF contract but doesn't void it).

The Euro teams usually don't stand in the way of anyone's NHL team, and conditioning in AHL is part of that, but it's the club's call in the end. Sebastian Aho's dad wasn't about to let Kuokkanen go to AHL, but then they made his son the 1C and it was okay.

And obviously, they can be signed and Loaned to the Euro team they were claimed from.

8.7 Age 18 and 19 Players.

(a) During the first two seasons next succeeding the draft of an age 18 Player, the Club he signs an SPC with must first offer him to the club from which he was claimed before it may Loan him.

(b) During the first season next succeeding the draft of an age 19 Player or a Player who reaches his 19th birthday between September 16 and December 31, inclusive, of the year of the Entry Draft, the Club he signs an SPC with must first offer him to the club from which he was claimed before it may Loan him.

(c) During the seasons set forth in (a) and (b) above, the age 18 and age 19 Player, respectively, may be Loaned to the minor league team affiliate of his Club when his Junior team is no longer in competition and provided he has been listed on the Club's minor league eligibility list.

 

[Unsustainable]

I trust our drafting.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I trust our drafting.

Our 1st round drafting has been better these last 2 years. Our 2-7 round drafting has been great for about 10 years.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Our 1st round drafting has been better these last 2 years. Our 2-7 round drafting has been great for about 10 years.

Well, Svech was an obvious choice so that was luck (winning the lottery) more than anything. Necas looks good, but jury is still out.

 

[DaveG]

a interesting name to me that we don't need in that position is Arthur Kaliyev. 102 Points in 67 games for a rebuilding Hamilton in the O. LW 6'2 and i belive 188LBS. ranked around 19-30 by most (11 by NHL Central scouting NA & 13 by bob). Even if we don't pick him i think he will be one of the better players to come out of this draft class.

Other options that i think would be good for the canes would be

Cole Caulfield
Philip Thomasino
Bobby Brink

Prospects that interests me that i would throw a 2nd rounder at

Leevi Aaltonen & Maxim Cajkovic

If you want more info like stats on them just lmk and i will post them.

A couple russians that could go undrafted or be thrown a late pick to try and aquire.

Dimitri Sheshin 5'7 143lbs 43P/45G in the MHL, most likely not going to become great or anything but he could... wouldn't mind throwing a pick at him in the 5th round.

Temate of Dimitri, Yegor Spiridonov. 41P/43G in the MHL, 6'2 192lbs. ranked 41 by Future Considerations and i would throw a later round into it.

Kaliev is one of the most divisive prospects in a long lomg time. Like Josh Ho-Sang level divisive. There's some serious concern about how seriously he takes the game and his overall intensity level. Not saying i wouldn't take him because the skill level is undeniable.

 

[FaulkYouAho]

Kaliev is one of the most divisive prospects in a long lomg time. Like Josh Ho-Sang level divisive. There's some serious concern about how seriously he takes the game and his overall intensity level. Not saying i wouldn't take him because the skill level is undeniable.

i mean his parents are rich company owners and his sister is a pro tennis player if i remember correctly but i feel zadina was also but because he had such a amazing WJC with Necas nobody payed attention to it. Also i haven't seen anything about his attitude to make me think that