GDT: 2019 Draft Lottery

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

We had people rooting all season for the team to intentionally lose games. You do not get rewarded for that. That is a good thing.

And this "parity" argument is funny. Parity is at an all time high.

When your team is bad at hockey, you want a damn consolation prize. To root for your team to lose meaningless games out of pride is conducive to long term mediocrity.

 

[The Zermanator]

Maybe only the leading scorer on each team over the age of 25 is distributed among the league every other year or so then. Not saying the idea can't be tweaked to perfection. This would keep the scope of the distribution draft more in line with the number of players traded league wide. 31 players redistributed every two years = 15.5/year.

Like, how great would it be if Ottawa was given Kucherov next season? That would definitely speed up their rebuild and make them more competitive league wide which is the ultimate goal we are in search of. Also, once a player is distributed, they cannot be distributed again for another 6 years or something like that. That would prevent Ottawa from just losing Kucherov after they draft him in a subsequent redistribution draft. Now everyone has a chance to build a good team.

I think you're looking for this forum.

What point are you even trying to make?

 

[obey86]

I think you're looking for this forum.

What point are you even trying to make?

I'm not trying to make a point. I'm trying to come up with a better way to redistribute good players across the league so that every team has a chance to win. I was told that we don't want good teams to be good for long and/or bad teams to be bad for long. I don't think there's another way that gets the league closer to this total parity goal than a redistribution draft. I'm certainly open to other suggestions though.

 

[haulinbass]

We had people rooting all season for the team to intentionally lose games. You do not get rewarded for that. That is a good thing.

And this "parity" argument is funny. Parity is at an all time high.

You do get rewarded for it still. You end up drafting higher.... It's just that the top 3 picks may or may not work in your favor. But still, you get higher odds for that as well.

Tanking is just as important, its just not as straight forward as it once was.

I have no idea how finishing 4th and drafting 6th isn't better than had we finished 13th and got the 13th pick.

Your odds of winning a top 3 lotto like Chicago did are very low. Combined they had a 8.2% chance to end up in top 3 and a 91.8% chance to win the 12-15th overall. Its just that 4-15th place teams combined have a good shot at jumping into the top 3. It is not viable to finish 10-15th and get top picks. You need to finish at the bottom to get top picks.

Would I rather we had the old system? Of course, because this system can be frustrating witnessing teams like NJ have luck winning the lotto twice while another team is finishing within the bottom 3 and having no such luck. But still, tanking is the most viable option for a rebuild regardless of the old system or new.

 

[Oddbob]

or dump the whole lottery nonsense completely and pick according to standings, but that would be too radical, I guess.

The other guys idea, eliminates purposeful tanking, as there is no need for it, while this idea promotes it.

 

[obey86]

You do get rewarded for it still. You end up drafting higher.... It's just that the top 3 picks may or may not work in your favor. But still, you get higher odds for that as well.

Tanking is just as important, its just not as straight forward as it once was.

I have no idea how finishing 4th and drafting 6th isn't better than had we finished 13th and got the 13th pick.

Your odds of winning a top 3 lotto like Chicago did are very low. Combined they had a 8.2% chance to end up in top 3 and a 91.8% chance to win the 12-15th overall. Its just that 4-15th place teams combined have a good shot at jumping into the top 3. It is not viable to finish 10-15th and get top picks. You need to finish at the bottom to get top picks.

Would I rather we had the old system? Ya because this can be frustrating witnessing other teams like NJ have luck and win the lotto twice while another team is finishing the bottom 3 and have no such luck. But still, tanking is the most viable option for a rebuild regardless of the old system or new.

I'd rather finish 12th and draft 3rd personally.

 

[haulinbass]

I'd rather finish 12th and draft 3rd personally.

You so smart obey!! Thats a great idea! I don't know why management didn't think of it.

What place should we finish next year so we can win the lotto?

 

[obey86]

You so smart obey!! Thats a great idea! I don't know why management didn't think of it.

What place should we finish next year so we can win the lotto?

We should finish in the place that wins the lotto. I don't know where that place is, which is why i'm not going to get worked up about where we finish.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I'd rather finish 12th and draft 3rd personally.

I'd rather have the guys responsible for Tampa's drafting handle our drafts.

 

[vladdy16]

Edit: response to deleted comment

 

[obey86]

I'd rather have the guys responsible for Tampa's drafting handle our drafts.

Trudat lol. Who needs top 10 picks (TB didn't, they kind of bungled all three of theirs) when you can just draft Kucherov in the 2nd round or whatever?

 

[BinCookin]

I see everyone complaining about the lottery, not a surprise because we didn't win it. Meanwhile im sure the thread would have been jubilant had we won.

I'll be honest, this draft lottery (for the most part) works great. Here are a few things it does for sure:

1) Makes trying to tank to get GENERATIONAL players (#1 overall guys) a pointless move. You are not supposed to be able to get a Mario Lemeiux by sucking.. and that is exactly what the lottery does. If you were banking on getting Hughes (10%) or Kakko (10%) than you don't understand Math.

2) However the overall trend of "Bad" teams getting better is maintained under this lottery system. Everyone here who wanted to Tank very hard... Yes we are still getting a good player. Also we did Tank, no one debates that. This is what it got us. A top 6 pick, which is a good pick. If you don't think the Red Wings can get better in 5 years with getting picks like this, you are also not being very honest. Calgary is a great team right now built around 3rd-6th picks, they don't have anyone 1st or 2nd overall. Everyone saying "we will be bad forever"... ya get your head out of your ass, we will significantly add to our talent pool in this draft. Easily better than 21 other teams in this draft. That is called improving.

3) Parity in the league is high, and its only going to get even closer as this continues.

4) My only complaint would be NJ getting #1 OA in 2 of the last 3 years. They should put in a small stipulation that you cant win the same pick in the lottery several years in a row. This makes sure all the bottom teams spread the talent amongst them equally.


The draft lottery works just fine. Teams should NOT try to follow the Buffalo or Edmonton Models.
The "Toronto" model is NOT the same, that ignores the fact they have been drafting in the top 10 for a DECADE now. So they were supposed to get better.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

We had people rooting all season for the team to intentionally lose games. You do not get rewarded for that. That is a good thing.

And this "parity" argument is funny. Parity is at an all time high.

No, we really didn’t.

Some of you keep putting words in pro tankers mouths and it’s getting a little ridiculous

We get it. You want the guys to play hard all year and gain experience. But we’re allowed to be given a light at the end of the tunnel without being lectured about it

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

There certainly was people toward the end. But that's also not what I just said.
Benching players, calling up bad AHL players, rooting for players to sit out due to minor injuries, etc. is all part of the team losing on purpose. The league (rightfully) does not want to reward that behavior

How do you distinguish a team that is losing on purpose from one that is just plain bad or really beat up? Should they all be treated the same? I don't think the Wings tried to tank this season. We just plain sucked from having a lack of elite talent, which is the inevitable fortune of all good teams.

Mark my words, the anti-tank/pro-lottery crowd will be singing a different tune five or six years from now if we still find ourselves at the bottom of the standings.

 

[izlez]

No, we really didn’t.

Some of you keep putting words in pro tankers mouths and it’s getting a little ridiculous

We get it. You want the guys to play hard all year and gain experience. But we’re allowed to be given a light at the end of the tunnel without being lectured about it

You're saying you were pro tank but wanted the team to win games? Sounds like you were not pro tank

 

[Shaman464]

We should finish in the place that wins the lotto. I don't know where that place is, which is why i'm not going to get worked up about where we finish.

Okay, you have two choices of paths to walk down:

Path one you have a 99.99999% chance of your eyes being fed to you.

Path two: You have a 0.000001% chance of your eyes being fed to you.

Which path do you choose? Because by your logic it doesn't matter which path you choose because you don't know what will happen on either path.

Its a hyperbolic analogy, but, holds. The worst you finish the better chances you have of getting a better pick. Period. Even if you don't get a top pick, the odds are still better. The odds panned out yesterday. Detroit had a 70% chance of dropping at least one spot. They dropped 2 spots. It was the most likely outcome, and by dropping two spots, they are much less likely to draft an elite talent now.

 

[izlez]

Trudat lol. Who needs top 10 picks (TB didn't, they kind of bungled all three of theirs) when you can just draft Kucherov in the 2nd round or whatever?

In my mission to make people realize that Yzerman is severely overrated, I feel the need to point out that Stamkos was taken 1st overall and Hedman was taken 2nd overall.

I also feel like I should remind everyone that since they tanked and got those guys, and also got the best GM in the history of sports, they have missed the playoffs 5 times and won 0 Stanley Cups

 

[ArGarBarGar]

In my mission to make people realize that Yzerman is severely overrated, I feel the need to point out that Stamkos was taken 1st overall and Hedman was taken 2nd overall.

I also feel like I should remind everyone that since they tanked and got those guys, and also got the best GM in the history of sports, they have missed the playoffs 5 times and won 0 Stanley Cups

For starters, they have missed the playoffs 4 times under his watch. One of those was his first year after drafting Hedman 2nd overall. Two were after a conference finals bid (one that I think we can agree was the team overachieving more than anything as they were only a second year removed from drafting Hedman and two removed from drafting Stamkos). In the five seasons since they have been knocked out of the first round once, made the Stanley Cup Finals once, made the Conference Finals twice, and missed the playoffs once (not including them tying the wins record this season and without knowing how far they will go in the playoffs).

No, he isn't the most amazingest GM ever. However it is hard to argue against the fact he has been a very positive contributor to the Lightning since being signed on.

But yes, the Lightning absolutely needed Stamkos and Hedman to be where they are today.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I see everyone complaining about the lottery, not a surprise because we didn't win it. Meanwhile im sure the thread would have been jubilant had we won.

I'll be honest, this draft lottery (for the most part) works great. Here are a few things it does for sure:

1) Makes trying to tank to get GENERATIONAL players (#1 overall guys) a pointless move. You are not supposed to be able to get a Mario Lemeiux by sucking.. and that is exactly what the lottery does. If you were banking on getting Hughes (10%) or Kakko (10%) than you don't understand Math.

2) However the overall trend of "Bad" teams getting better is maintained under this lottery system. Everyone here who wanted to Tank very hard... Yes we are still getting a good player. Also we did Tank, no one debates that. This is what it got us. A top 6 pick, which is a good pick. If you don't think the Red Wings can get better in 5 years with getting picks like this, you are also not being very honest. Calgary is a great team right now built around 3rd-6th picks, they don't have anyone 1st or 2nd overall. Everyone saying "we will be bad forever"... ya get your head out of your ass, we will significantly add to our talent pool in this draft. Easily better than 21 other teams in this draft. That is called improving.

3) Parity in the league is high, and its only going to get even closer as this continues.

4) My only complaint would be NJ getting #1 OA in 2 of the last 3 years. They should put in a small stipulation that you cant win the same pick in the lottery several years in a row. This makes sure all the bottom teams spread the talent amongst them equally.


The draft lottery works just fine. Teams should NOT try to follow the Buffalo or Edmonton Models.
The "Toronto" model is NOT the same, that ignores the fact they have been drafting in the top 10 for a DECADE now. So they were supposed to get better.

Strongly agree with #4.

I know some of it is sour grapes on my part but they should definitely include a stipulation like that regarding the first overall pick, so you don't end up with a team like Edmonton, where great talent goes to die.

 

[Frk It]

Mark my words, the anti-tank/pro-lottery crowd will be singing a different tune five or six years from now if we still find ourselves at the bottom of the standings.

 

[Red Stanley]

How do you distinguish a team that is losing on purpose from one that is just plain bad or really beat up? Should they all be treated the same? I don't think the Wings tried to tank this season. We just plain sucked from having a lack of elite talent, which is the inevitable fortune of all good teams.

Mark my words, the anti-tank/pro-lottery crowd will be singing a different tune five or six years from now if we still find ourselves at the bottom of the standings.

If we suck six years from now it won't be because we didn't lose enough. It'll be because we drafted our top 10 picks poorly. I also don't think players tank on purpose. Some give up easier thinking giving up is acceptable behavior since most of their teammates don't really give a shit when things aren't going well. I don't want the RW to be "that" kind of team.

 

[The Zermanator]

For starters, they have missed the playoffs 4 times under his watch. One of those was his first year after drafting Hedman 2nd overall. Two were after a conference finals bid (one that I think we can agree was the team overachieving more than anything as they were only a second year removed from drafting Hedman and two removed from drafting Stamkos). In the five seasons since they have been knocked out of the first round once, made the Stanley Cup Finals once, made the Conference Finals twice, and missed the playoffs once (not including them tying the wins record this season and without knowing how far they will go in the playoffs).

No, he isn't the most amazingest GM ever. However it is hard to argue against the fact he has been a very positive contributor to the Lightning since being signed on.

But yes, the Lightning absolutely needed Stamkos and Hedman to be where they are today.

Yeah, and that one year Tampa missed the playoffs Stamkos only played 17 games and Johnson missed almost 20. Even then they barely missed.

 

[BinCookin]

The funny thing. Is im watching this "debate"... But its not much of a debate.

We sucked this year, I was "happy" most the year since we were losing, I wanted a Good Pick.

I was also really happy to see Bertuzzi, Mantha, Larkin and AA play well. I am glad they did well. And yes, i did secretly (not so secretly) hope they would lose the last game so Buffalo picks 7 and not us.

Overall I am fine with how things turned out. Our players developed. Our team is "improving" even if it doesnt look like it.
Also we should be adding a good player this year. That is also good.

Our GM is moving valuable pieces for more draft picks Nyquist and Tatar.
And he's waiting out the unmovable contracts because (he has no choice here).

It is as it is guys.
If our team becomes good in the next 5 years. The current players we have will have to be a part of that. It looks like there is some promise there.
We are also going to need help... we have some promising prospects as well.

Overall this result is MUCH better than us finishing 13th or 15th OA.

Things are entertaining. I like seeing how our team will rebuild. We all argue here (maybe too strongly) over what we think is the right way to do it. But there is no right way. I think the last 2.5 years of rebuilding has been working ok so far. I like the future of our team. Lets hope our scouts do better than average, because we will need them to.

P.S. stop talking about "winning cups" as though you have a solution about how to do that. the ODDS are we will not (nor any team) will win a cup in the next 20 years. Odds are against you. We may have forgotten that being spoiled with all our wins. TB is the best team in hockey right now by a mile.... Who wants to give me 5:1 odds on betting against them winning the cup this year?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I'd rather have the guys responsible for Tampa's drafting handle our drafts.

I wouldn't. Their drafting actually hasn't been that superb. They got Stamkos and Hedman at top of the draft and therefore no real thinking to be done there. They took Drouin over Jones which was a bad move. They saved it by Drouin for Sergachev, but the pick wasn't good. Kucherov wasn't a flash of inspiration, just the possibility of reward overrunning the risk of him not coming to the US. The rest of their top picks are garbage and his mid-round selections aren't really any better than what Detroit has found.

Or in case you meant it as you want Yzerman... we are probably going to get Yzerman.

 

[jkutswings]

Lots of revisionist history going on.

The draft lottery was not instituted to prevent the lowest team in the standings from getting the top pick. Not was it started to guard against teams selling at the deadline. Those things are not, nor have they ever been part of what tanking really is. (Tanking is now just largely a misnomer that many people use for any vague association with fans of bad teams hoping to end up with a very high draft pick.)

The lottery was started to prevent things like:
* Benching players for playing well;
* Trading players at the first sign of playing well;
* Deliberately instructing players to throw a game(s); and
* Any other actions of overtly (and sometimes even publicly) attempting to lose games.

There was not a single team this year who tanked (in the sense of why there's a draft lottery). Any notion that Detroit "gave it their all", while one or more of OTT/LA/NJ/BUFF/NYR "gave up" is nonsense and even a bit egocentric. All of the above teams are at or near the bottom of the league for overall talent, and finished accordingly, with the extra hot or cold streak here and there as variation.

The least talented teams SHOULD get the best draft picks. Honestly, if the NHL was really doing their job, there would be zero need for a lottery in the first place, because the league established a Competition Committee back in 2005, WHOSE SOLE FOCUS IS ENACTING RULES IN THE NAME OF COMPETITIVE BALANCE! So just draft in reverse order of the standings with no lottery, and have the committee actually commit to de-incentivizing any lack of effort in other ways, whether via fines or even outright loss of draft picks altogether.