GDT: 2019 Draft Lottery

[drw02]

Or they could've lost all those games finished below LA and have been picking #5, better position sure, but I'm glad I have more hope in our current young forwards.

Def not mad about them playing well with the young guys leading the way, just sucks the spot they were in for the majority of the season ended up hitting and the spot they could have had if they just beat Buffalo hit for 2nd. Just some real crappy luck

 

[obey86]

One point of clarification, not aimed at any individual:

Had Detroit finished 3rd last or 6th last, there's no guarantee whatsoever that they would have received the draft slot that New Jersey or New York did (respectively).

New Jersey was assigned X number of combinations for each of the three drawings. Detroit was assigned Y combinations, and New York was assigned Z combinations. But there's no way of knowing the order those combinations were assigned in (possibly random), let alone if a given team having more or fewer combinations based on W/L record would have necessarily led to them having the specific combination chosen for a given drawing.

The "safety net" of not dropping more than 3 spots would still be there, which is why I wanted a worse record. But it's not a given that the Wings would've drafted 1st with the Devils' record, or 2nd with the Rangers'.

I always assumed that spot #2 would be assigned the same combinations regardless of the team. ie each spot in the lottery had specific ball combinations attached to it.

 

[Gniwder]

I always assumed that spot #2 would be assigned the same combinations regardless of the team. ie each spot in the lottery had specific ball combinations attached to it.

Yes, that is supposedly how it works.

In reality, Bettman just picks the teams that benefit him the most, so the Rangers would have won regardless.

 

[jkutswings]

I always assumed that spot #2 would be assigned the same combinations regardless of the team. ie each spot in the lottery had specific ball combinations attached to it.

I suppose this explanation could be wrong, but:

Everything you need to know about the 2019 NHL Draft Lottery

"The league uses a system where 14 balls numbered 1-14 are placed into a chamber. Balls are drawn one at a time to create a four-digit sequence that corresponds to a board where 1,001 possible combinations have been divvied up at random among the 15 teams based on the lottery odds. The team with the matching combination wins the pick."


And here's the published table of numbers from 2016, which definitely seems random:




I think it's a hodgepodge every time.

 

[avssuc]

The Wings would have had the 1st overall pick if...


Roundtable: How we'd fix NHL's draft lottery system

 

[Pavels Dog]

We're not talking about margins here. Like a team on the bubble hitting a small rough patch that causes them to just miss the playoffs. We're talking about a team that was the 2nd worst in the league, suddenly being the best team in the league over the last ~10 games pushing us up the standings. I've repeated this point a few times already but I'll say it again. There's no scenario where losing more than we did those last 10 doesn't put us in a better position.

And 6th instead of 5th very well may f*** us in the end. I don't see potential #1/2D Byram getting past LA and also have a hard time believing he isn't very high on Detroit's list given the state of our D for the last decade. Say he does become a #1D and we find out Detroit would have picked him if he was on the board. Still gonna be happy we got those wins?

Say we draft Byram and he’s a bust.. we’re not talking Dahlin here.

 

[drw02]

I suppose this explanation could be wrong, but:

Everything you need to know about the 2019 NHL Draft Lottery

"The league uses a system where 14 balls numbered 1-14 are placed into a chamber. Balls are drawn one at a time to create a four-digit sequence that corresponds to a board where 1,001 possible combinations have been divvied up at random among the 15 teams based on the lottery odds. The team with the matching combination wins the pick."


And here's the published table of numbers from 2016, which definitely seems random:




I think it's a hodgepodge every time.

Looks like its randomized, I feel better now knowing there is no correlation to draft slot

 

[Gniwder]

Still gonna be happy we got those wins?

Why does that matter to you so much? None of us can change the outcome of the games or the lottery. Whether or not he's happy or mad won't change jack.... so live with it.

 

[jkutswings]

Why does that matter to you so much? None of us can change the outcome of the games or the lottery. Whether or not he's happy or mad won't change jack.... so live with it.

Very true that the past cannot be changed, but fans inherently show their passion at lots of things, despite having no role in the outcome. And we each have our own way of wanting the maximum possible results from rebuilding. Hopefully Detroit lands a great player at 6, and continues with a fantastic off season.

 

[Go Wings]

If Colorado likes Cozens/Turcotte/Dach all enough we might be able to move up to 4 for Byram and beat LA to the punch. I think it takes at least our 2nd in addition. I realize that won't be a popular idea here because some aren't high on Byram.

It is possible for sure.

 

[ricky0034]

Yes, that is supposedly how it works.

In reality, Bettman just picks the teams that benefit him the most, so the Rangers would have won regardless.

is that why Edmonton has won so many times?

 

[Bondurant]

The Bettman conspiracy theories of a rigged lottery are humorous. Lost in these claims is the fact that Bettman carries the water of the owners. He's their mouthpiece and does what they want. If he's rigging the system it's at their behest. If the lottery is rigged then the Wings are co-conspirators.

 

[Larkin2AA]

The Wings would have had the 1st overall pick if...


Roundtable: How we'd fix NHL's draft lottery system

I think this would be one of the best ways (that I have heard of) to do it. I am not just saying that because Detroit won so many games at the end of the season, but as the articles states, it actually gives teams something to play for. Now, it also makes things even harder for fringe playoff teams to make it in when they are playing last place teams with something to play for, but it will only make those wildcard teams stronger entering the playoffs.

Does NHL.com state the date in which each team was mathematically eliminated from the playoffs?

 

[ricky0034]

I think the whole mathematical elimination idea is a terrible one because of the differences in conferences,why should a team like the Kings have a bad draft pick just because the wild card teams in their conference sucked?

maybe if instead it used a fixed target that's the same for both conferences it would be workable

 

[jkutswings]

I think the whole mathematical elimination idea is a terrible one because of the differences in conferences,why should a team like the Kings have a bad draft pick just because the wild card teams in their conference sucked?

maybe if instead it used a fixed target that's the same for both conferences it would be workable

Or eliminate the conference requirement, and just make it the top 16 point totals in the league.

 

[Mister Ed]

Here's some not-so-fun revionist history :

Detroit Red Wings and New Jersey Devils – November 17

On Nov. 17, the Wings headed into New Jersey for a battle between teams that were scuffling along near .500. The Devils jumped out to a 2-0 lead late in the second, but the Red Wings fought back, and Michael Rasmussen tied the game with less than seven minutes in regulation. The Devils challenged the goal for interference, but were denied. The goal counted, and Dylan Larkin went on to win it in overtime.

If Rasmussen’s goal was overturned and the Devils hold on to win in regulation, they finish the season with 73 points while the Red Wings drop down to 72, falling into that 29th-place slot that would hold the key to the first-overall pick. Instead, Detroit’s win doomed them.

LINK $$

 

[Larkin2AA]

Here's some not-so-fun revionist history :

Detroit Red Wings and New Jersey Devils – November 17

On Nov. 17, the Wings headed into New Jersey for a battle between teams that were scuffling along near .500. The Devils jumped out to a 2-0 lead late in the second, but the Red Wings fought back, and Michael Rasmussen tied the game with less than seven minutes in regulation. The Devils challenged the goal for interference, but were denied. The goal counted, and Dylan Larkin went on to win it in overtime.

If Rasmussen’s goal was overturned and the Devils hold on to win in regulation, they finish the season with 73 points while the Red Wings drop down to 72, falling into that 29th-place slot that would hold the key to the first-overall pick. Instead, Detroit’s win doomed them.

LINK $$

Why do you do this to me?

 

[obey86]

Here's some not-so-fun revionist history :

Detroit Red Wings and New Jersey Devils – November 17

On Nov. 17, the Wings headed into New Jersey for a battle between teams that were scuffling along near .500. The Devils jumped out to a 2-0 lead late in the second, but the Red Wings fought back, and Michael Rasmussen tied the game with less than seven minutes in regulation. The Devils challenged the goal for interference, but were denied. The goal counted, and Dylan Larkin went on to win it in overtime.

If Rasmussen’s goal was overturned and the Devils hold on to win in regulation, they finish the season with 73 points while the Red Wings drop down to 72, falling into that 29th-place slot that would hold the key to the first-overall pick. Instead, Detroit’s win doomed them.

LINK $$

As jkutswings has pointed out, even if we were in the #2 spot going into the lottery, we would not have had the same combinations as the Devils had -- so still not a sure thing we would have won the lottery.

 

[izlez]

The Wings would have had the 1st overall pick if...


Roundtable: How we'd fix NHL's draft lottery system

I don't think there's anything wrong with the lottery, but I've been pushing this method for years

I think the whole mathematical elimination idea is a terrible one because of the differences in conferences,why should a team like the Kings have a bad draft pick just because the wild card teams in their conference sucked?

maybe if instead it used a fixed target that's the same for both conferences it would be workable

buuut, this is something I never thought of and kind of does hurt the idea

 

[Ezekial]

Here's some not-so-fun revionist history :

Detroit Red Wings and New Jersey Devils – November 17

On Nov. 17, the Wings headed into New Jersey for a battle between teams that were scuffling along near .500. The Devils jumped out to a 2-0 lead late in the second, but the Red Wings fought back, and Michael Rasmussen tied the game with less than seven minutes in regulation. The Devils challenged the goal for interference, but were denied. The goal counted, and Dylan Larkin went on to win it in overtime.

If Rasmussen’s goal was overturned and the Devils hold on to win in regulation, they finish the season with 73 points while the Red Wings drop down to 72, falling into that 29th-place slot that would hold the key to the first-overall pick. Instead, Detroit’s win doomed them.

LINK $$

If Michael Rasmussen arrived to the stadium 5 seconds later the entire sequence of events leading up to it would probably not have shaken out the exact same way or after. If the puck is dropped 1.3 seconds earlier the game wouldn't have played out at all the same as if it had been dropped at the normal time.

I hate that people don't understand a goal in the 1st period completely changes the trajectory of a game.
The butterfly effect - having sensitive dependence on initial conditions

 

[avssuc]

I think this would be one of the best ways (that I have heard of) to do it. I am not just saying that because Detroit won so many games at the end of the season, but as the articles states, it actually gives teams something to play for. Now, it also makes things even harder for fringe playoff teams to make it in when they are playing last place teams with something to play for, but it will only make those wildcard teams stronger entering the playoffs.

Does NHL.com state the date in which each team was mathematically eliminated from the playoffs?

It is the only format that makes sense if they want to prevent tanking. The only thing it might do is cause teams that are eliminated not to look at their prospects as much, but that's on them. As a fan buying a ticket (arena or TV package) I know I'd feel like I was getting more out of the money spent.

I don't think NHL.com lists that retroactively, but I'd almost guarantee the Wings would have picked 1st.

 

[avssuc]

I don't think there's anything wrong with the lottery, but I've been pushing this method for years

Well, I'd disagree. There is something wrong with the draft when the rich get richer. For a league that stresses parity, the results this year (and several in the past since 2013 CBA) are less than desirable. I'd be interested to see the statistical probability related to the teams that moved into the top 3 since 2013. Just a guess, but I'd assume it's astronomical.

What that proposal would do is kill any frozen envelope (85 NBA draft) or weighted ping pong ball conspiracy. Since the new CBA made it more attractive to all owners to have successful big market teams from a revenue sharing standpoint, and a couple other reasons, I don't throw the draft conspiracy babies out with the draft conspiracy bathwater.

 

[Ezekial]

I wish I cared about anything in my life as much as you guys care about things you can't ever change.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I wish I cared about anything in my life as much as you guys care about things you can't ever change.

I care deeply about things that I have no input into.

 

[Ezekial]

I care deeply about things that I have no input into.

I care deeply about the success about my favorite sports teams, but I don't feel disenfranchised when I'm not handed things for being bad at something. Entitlement is a sickness.