2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning

[Brian39]

Not for nothing, but we are currently using Faulk as the #3 D man on the roster. By usage, he is the #1 LD on the roster since J-Bo got hurt. He was the clear #2 LD prior to J-Bo's departure. He has been playing more per night than Scandella (total and at even strength). We are a Cup contender with him being clearly used in that role. If the argument is that Petro is so damn good that our top pairing has been this successful in spite of Faulk, then the writing should be on the wall that we aren't a contender without Petro no matter what. If Petro is just that good, then he isn't getting adequately replaced no matter what we do.

In terms of finding partners and Parayko's role, he really can't pick up much more ice time. He already plays a minute more per game than Petro at even strength and a few seconds more shorthanded. He's playing 23 minutes a night with just 45 seconds of that coming from PP time. Only 2 other guys in the NHL play 23+ minutes a night with less than a minute a night on the PP. He is 6th in the NHL in even strength TOI per game. You could theoretically bump him up a bit, but he's already at 20:17 a night at even strength and only 1 D man in the league topped 21 minutes a night. There isn't much room for growth. Other than putting him on the top PP unit, we are close to capped out on how much we can lean on Parayko, so any meaningful change in his deployment means someone else has to replace what Parayko had been doing (rather than asking Parayko to do something else on top of what he has been doing). Given that, I think it makes the most sense to allow Parayko to continuing excelling in a role he is amazing at. Faulk is better suited to play Petro's role than Parayko's. Dunn is better suited to replace Petro's role (but from the left side) than he is at replacing Parayko's. It is waaaaay to much to ask Mikkola to take on the responsibility of Parayko's defensive minutes and we don't have a good righthanded partner for him to play the Bo/Scandella role.

If Petro walks I think we are clearly best suited to keep Parayko in his current role, but leaning on him for some extra PK time since we will no longer have the luxury of spreading out PK minutes as well. Keep him at about 20 minutes a night at even strength, maybe giving him an extra shift or two in close games. Bump up his PK usage from 1:57 a night to 2:30-2:45 a night and then keep him PP usage about the same. Let Dunn and Faulk absorb Petro's PP minutes to keep Parayko fresh in his role that he does arguably better than anyone in the NHL.

 

[Brian39]

Could Scandella be that "sturdy shutdown guy" to pair with Faulk if we need to? It is nice to have Scandella-Parayko right now as a shutdown pair, but having a pairing where each compliments the other instead of having two guys that do the same job seems like it would work better. You could always flip the pairings around when protecting a lead late in the game and reunite Scandella and Parayko.

To me, the bottom line is we inarguably have a much better defense with Pietrangelo than without him, but I think we still have the personnel to have a Top 10 defense if he walks.

If Petro walks, I would hope that the organization would make a decent commitment to Dunn and give him a real chance to sink or swim as a legit top 4 D man. Without Petro, it seems insane to not give this a long look as the top 4:

Dunn-Parayko
Scandella-Faulk

Dunn-Parayko would still be asked to be our premier shutdown pairing with Scandella-Faulk being deployed mainly against 2nd lines and in offensive situations. I don't think Berube trusts Dunn in that role, but a Petro departure means that he is going to have to try one of our D men in a role he doesn't currently trust them in at some point.

I agree that we can put out a top 10 D unit without Petro if Mikkola is truly ready to be an above-replacement level D man as a rookie. If that is the case I think we would have a D group in the back half of the top 10. If he isn't that next year, I think we would be just outside the top 10. However, the reason I'm pushing to extend Petro even if it hurts in years 5+ is because I think we have the best D group in the NHL at the moment and are at worst top 3. I also think that having an elite D group is the biggest reason we won the Cup and that our offense isn't quite good enough to be a true contender without that elite group. Binner played a big part in our Cup win. So did ROR and a number of other players.

But the backbone of that Cup was the ability to have a top 15 NHL D man on the ice for 45+ minutes a night. Petro and Parayko is the best 1-2 punch on the blue line I have seen over the last decade in the NHL. Their styles complement each other perfectly and ensure that no matter the situation you can almost always put a D man out there who is either elite or borderline at elite at the specific thing you need them to do at that time. I truly believe that the drop from our current blueline (and last year's blue line) to the 7th best blueline in the NHL is gigantic. If you rely on having a top 10 (but not elite) D group, then you need an elite offense to win 4 rounds. I don't think our offense is quite there and I don't think we have the organizational strength to get there. We are 11th in total goals this year with the benefit of a blueline that is very good at moving the puck and transitioning to offense. 15th last year. I don't see how we get that offense into the top 5 if you reduce your blueline's effectiveness to generate offense. I like our prospects, but that is asking a ton of them.

 

[MissouriMook]

If Petro walks, I would hope that the organization would make a decent commitment to Dunn and give him a real chance to sink or swim as a legit top 4 D man. Without Petro, it seems insane to not give this a long look as the top 4:

Dunn-Parayko
Scandella-Faulk

Dunn-Parayko would still be asked to be our premier shutdown pairing with Scandella-Faulk being deployed mainly against 2nd lines and in offensive situations. I don't think Berube trusts Dunn in that role, but a Petro departure means that he is going to have to try one of our D men in a role he doesn't currently trust them in at some point.

This is exactly what I was thinking, then some form of Mikkola, Gunnarsson, Mikkola and Perunovich for the third pairing. For next year at lease, maybe under this scenario Berube leans more on Gunnarsson to pair with Parayko, but I'm sure he understands by now that the more you use Gunnarsson (in terms of TOI) the more likely he will be unavailable due to injury.

 

[bleedblue1223]

The problem with Dunn-Parayko and Scandella-Faulk is it goes against how we've deployed our pairs and what really allowed us to go on our Cup run. The change is usage of Petro and Parayko is an underrated move that helped bring us to the next level. It's one reason why I ultimately wasn't a huge fan of going after someone like Faulk now that it's apparent that he's not as much of a 2-way defender as some thought. Maybe if Faulk improves now that he'll be more settled and a full training camp, we can try a Dunn-Faulk pair.

 

[Celtic Note]

If Petro leaves, then we need to look outside the club for additional top 4 support. I really like Dunn, but I am unconvinced that having two offensive defensemen in your top 4 with tendencies to frequently make big defensive mistakes allows you to call yourself a true contender.

If Faulk wasn’t here then I would absolutely consider Dunn a lock for the top 4, because I would look to find a defense first guy to pair with him in the top 4.

The only other way (that I see) to have two guys like Faulk and Dunn in the top 4 is to have a Parayko and Parayko-lite running along side them. I think that player would be incredibly difficult to find and pay to acquire. It also doesn’t necessarily make for a good situation with the expansion draft.

 

[Brian39]

This is exactly what I was thinking, then some form of Mikkola, Gunnarsson, Mikkola and Perunovich for the third pairing. For next year at lease, maybe under this scenario Berube leans more on Gunnarsson to pair with Parayko, but I'm sure he understands by now that the more you use Gunnarsson (in terms of TOI) the more likely he will be unavailable due to injury.

Yeah, even if we keep him I just don't see how you can count on Gunnar to be more than your 6th/7th D man. He's only played 51 games in the last 2 years combined and his highest GP total in the last 4 years is 63. He hasn't hit the 80 game mark since 2013/14. He'll be 34 in November. Even with the most optimistic outlook on him, how do you pencil him in for more than 50 games? Absolute best case scenario, if you pencil him into the top 4 then you have to assume that you are using someone else in his spot for at least 30 games (and likely more than half the season). Even then, you are only buying a year of time before Gunnar's contract is up and you need to put someone else in that role.

If you take an honest assessment of Gunnar and decide to give Dunn a shot to grow into the top 4 role, you then have a lot of options for your 3rd pair. Being able to swap Mikkola, Gunnar, Bortz and maybe Perunovich around in that 3rd pairing lets you build a variety of styles depending on your opponent, allows you to keep Gunnar fresh and shelter Mikkola's minutes as he learns how to be an NHL rookie (ditto Perunovich if he is there).

 

[Brian39]

If Petro leaves, then we need to look outside the club for additional top 4 support. I really like Dunn, but I am unconvinced that having two offensive defensemen in your top 4 with tendencies to frequently make big defensive mistakes allows you to call yourself a true contender.

If Faulk wasn’t here then I would absolutely consider Dunn a lock for the top 4, because I would look to find a defense first guy to pair with him in the top 4.

The only other way (that I see) to have two guys like Faulk and Dunn in the top 4 is to have a Parayko and Parayko-lite running along side them. I think that player would be incredibly difficult to find and pay to acquire. It also doesn’t necessarily make for a good situation with the expansion draft.

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I'm not seeing much I like there that wouldn't require a term and/or AAV commitment that is very uncomfortable. That list will shrink quite a but between now and the start of UFA. I'm not wild about moving Bozak/Allen/Steen in order to create room for most of that list and I'm not wild about paying the UFA premium on a clear downgrade from Petro when we weren't willing to pay that premium for him. If we're not willing to eat a bad contract in UFA, we probably need to accept using Kyrou as a trade chip for a top 4 D if we are filling the need via trade.

Obviously you explore every option to improve your team, but I'm not seeing many scenarios where the pain of bringing in a defensive top 4 guy is less than the pain of a Petro extension.

 

[Celtic Note]

Not for nothing, but we are currently using Faulk as the #3 D man on the roster. By usage, he is the #1 LD on the roster since J-Bo got hurt. He was the clear #2 LD prior to J-Bo's departure. He has been playing more per night than Scandella (total and at even strength). We are a Cup contender with him being clearly used in that role. If the argument is that Petro is so damn good that our top pairing has been this successful in spite of Faulk, then the writing should be on the wall that we aren't a contender without Petro no matter what. If Petro is just that good, then he isn't getting adequately replaced no matter what we do.

In terms of finding partners and Parayko's role, he really can't pick up much more ice time. He already plays a minute more per game than Petro at even strength and a few seconds more shorthanded. He's playing 23 minutes a night with just 45 seconds of that coming from PP time. Only 2 other guys in the NHL play 23+ minutes a night with less than a minute a night on the PP. He is 6th in the NHL in even strength TOI per game. You could theoretically bump him up a bit, but he's already at 20:17 a night at even strength and only 1 D man in the league topped 21 minutes a night. There isn't much room for growth. Other than putting him on the top PP unit, we are close to capped out on how much we can lean on Parayko, so any meaningful change in his deployment means someone else has to replace what Parayko had been doing (rather than asking Parayko to do something else on top of what he has been doing). Given that, I think it makes the most sense to allow Parayko to continuing excelling in a role he is amazing at. Faulk is better suited to play Petro's role than Parayko's. Dunn is better suited to replace Petro's role (but from the left side) than he is at replacing Parayko's. It is waaaaay to much to ask Mikkola to take on the responsibility of Parayko's defensive minutes and we don't have a good righthanded partner for him to play the Bo/Scandella role.

If Petro walks I think we are clearly best suited to keep Parayko in his current role, but leaning on him for some extra PK time since we will no longer have the luxury of spreading out PK minutes as well. Keep him at about 20 minutes a night at even strength, maybe giving him an extra shift or two in close games. Bump up his PK usage from 1:57 a night to 2:30-2:45 a night and then keep him PP usage about the same. Let Dunn and Faulk absorb Petro's PP minutes to keep Parayko fresh in his role that he does arguably better than anyone in the NHL.

I agree with your thoughts on Parayko’s usage, with the only minor adds being that he probably will get or deserves to get some more PP time and that additional PK time will put a greater amount of strain on him because those are hard minutes. If we can get him some PP time and not go too high on PK time, I think that will be good.

I agree that Dunn and Faulk can absorb Petro’s PP minutes. But, who picks up the the defensive zone time and assignments that Petro currently carries? That is the biggest hole and one that no one on the roster can fill. Faulk can pull more of those minutes, but defensively that can very much be a negative. Line matching will also be hard in the playoffs if we have a drastic drop off defensively from the Parayko pairing to the Faulk pairing.

Finally, our PK will take a hit. I wonder who picks up those minutes? Faulk will unfortunately have to pick up some, but we need someone that is firmly a high quality #2 PKer. I am not seeing that guy on our roster. Overall, from our Cup run till a life without Petro scenario, I am seeing some drop off on our PK from JBo to Scandella. It’s not a big drop, but an apparent one IMO. However, the big drop is Petro to “name that player”.

I do think we can makeup 25-30 of Petro’s points with increases from Dunn and Faulk. So offensively, I am not as concerned. Defensively though, there is a big waving red flag without some external add.

 

[Celtic Note]

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I'm not seeing much I like there that wouldn't require a term and/or AAV commitment that is very uncomfortable. That list will shrink quite a but between now and the start of UFA. I'm not wild about moving Bozak/Allen/Steen in order to create room for most of that list and I'm not wild about paying the UFA premium on a clear downgrade from Petro when we weren't willing to pay that premium for him. If we're not willing to eat a bad contract in UFA, we probably need to accept using Kyrou as a trade chip for a top 4 D if we are filling the need via trade.

Obviously you explore every option to improve your team, but I'm not seeing many scenarios where the pain of bringing in a defensive top 4 guy is less than the pain of a Petro extension.

There are a few names there that might be gamble worthy in a worst case scenario, but yeah, nothing that stands out. Army does seem to prefer the trade route, so possibly an option resides there? Dunno

This certainly isn’t making me feel all warm and fuzzy.

 

[Blueston]

If Petro walks, I would hope that the organization would make a decent commitment to Dunn and give him a real chance to sink or swim as a legit top 4 D man. Without Petro, it seems insane to not give this a long look as the top 4:

Dunn-Parayko
Scandella-Faulk

Dunn-Parayko would still be asked to be our premier shutdown pairing with Scandella-Faulk being deployed mainly against 2nd lines and in offensive situations. I don't think Berube trusts Dunn in that role, but a Petro departure means that he is going to have to try one of our D men in a role he doesn't currently trust them in at some point.

I agree that we can put out a top 10 D unit without Petro if Mikkola is truly ready to be an above-replacement level D man as a rookie. If that is the case I think we would have a D group in the back half of the top 10. If he isn't that next year, I think we would be just outside the top 10. However, the reason I'm pushing to extend Petro even if it hurts in years 5+ is because I think we have the best D group in the NHL at the moment and are at worst top 3. I also think that having an elite D group is the biggest reason we won the Cup and that our offense isn't quite good enough to be a true contender without that elite group. Binner played a big part in our Cup win. So did ROR and a number of other players.

But the backbone of that Cup was the ability to have a top 15 NHL D man on the ice for 45+ minutes a night. Petro and Parayko is the best 1-2 punch on the blue line I have seen over the last decade in the NHL. Their styles complement each other perfectly and ensure that no matter the situation you can almost always put a D man out there who is either elite or borderline at elite at the specific thing you need them to do at that time. I truly believe that the drop from our current blueline (and last year's blue line) to the 7th best blueline in the NHL is gigantic. If you rely on having a top 10 (but not elite) D group, then you need an elite offense to win 4 rounds. I don't think our offense is quite there and I don't think we have the organizational strength to get there. We are 11th in total goals this year with the benefit of a blueline that is very good at moving the puck and transitioning to offense. 15th last year. I don't see how we get that offense into the top 5 if you reduce your blueline's effectiveness to generate offense. I like our prospects, but that is asking a ton of them.

Even without Petro seems unlikely they will trust Dunn on shutdown pair. Parayko-Scandella is likely to remain our shutdown pair. Faulk would likely get Petro's usage (albeit maybe not #1pp time), where he plays in all circumstances but doesn't have the heavy lifting that Parayko does. Who he partners is remains to be seen (and might well be Dunn), but is unlikely to be Scandella unless they think Mikkola is ready for shutdown pair.

 

[Blueston]

I agree with your thoughts on Parayko’s usage, with the only minor adds being that he probably will get or deserves to get some more PP time and that additional PK time will put a greater amount of strain on him because those are hard minutes. If we can get him some PP time and not go too high on PK time, I think that will be good.

I agree that Dunn and Faulk can absorb Petro’s PP minutes. But, who picks up the the defensive zone time and assignments that Petro currently carries? That is the biggest hole and one that no one on the roster can fill. Faulk can pull more of those minutes, but defensively that can very much be a negative. Line matching will also be hard in the playoffs if we have a drastic drop off defensively from the Parayko pairing to the Faulk pairing.

Finally, our PK will take a hit. I wonder who picks up those minutes? Faulk will unfortunately have to pick up some, but we need someone that is firmly a high quality #2 PKer. I am not seeing that guy on our roster. Overall, from our Cup run till a life without Petro scenario, I am seeing some drop off on our PK from JBo to Scandella. It’s not a big drop, but an apparent one IMO. However, the big drop is Petro to “name that player”.

I do think we can makeup 25-30 of Petro’s points with increases from Dunn and Faulk. So offensively, I am not as concerned. Defensively though, there is a big waving red flag without some external add.

They seem to play Parayko less on PK this year as season went on (I don't have stats but someone may). Overall this year, order of PK (by ATOI) was JayBo, Borts, Scandella, Steen, ROR, Parayko, Gunnar, Petro. So losing Petro is unlikely to impact PK usage as much as might think (Faulk would presumably absorb the bulk of his PK minutes).

 

[bleedblue1223]

They seem to play Parayko less on PK this year as season went on (I don't have stats but someone may). Overall this year, order of PK (by ATOI) was JayBo, Borts, Scandella, Steen, ROR, Parayko, Gunnar, Petro. So losing Petro is unlikely to impact PK usage as much as might think (Faulk would presumably absorb the bulk of his PK minutes).

Things would definitely change quite a bit. They like talking about what pairs are available for right after a PK and a PP. I know they liked having Bouwmeester/Parayko available for after a PP, can't remember what it was for after the PK. I'd be curious if we add anyone and how everything shifts. I'd imagine our strategy would stay pretty similar, but players could be shifted around.

 

[izzy]

man that faulk deal has been such a hateful move since it happened

 

[BlueDream]

No chance in hell Dunn can play in a shutdown role next to Parayko. I like the guy but nah.

In the case of Petro walking, I like the idea of promoting Mikkola to fill the JBo role. I think he could grow into that.

Scandella-Faulk would eat up a lot of minutes as the top pair, Mikkola-Parayko is the shutdown unit and then Dunn-Bortuzzo/Gunny in their normal role.

 

[Mike Liut]

My inside source thinks the season will resume soon. He said they will probably finish the regular season before the playoffs start.

 

[Celtic Note]

They seem to play Parayko less on PK this year as season went on (I don't have stats but someone may). Overall this year, order of PK (by ATOI) was JayBo, Borts, Scandella, Steen, ROR, Parayko, Gunnar, Petro. So losing Petro is unlikely to impact PK usage as much as might think (Faulk would presumably absorb the bulk of his PK minutes).

The problem with the ATOI metric is that it doesn’t really show when players don’t play games consistently. Bortuzzo and Gunner don’t play every game. Collectively they have played 78 games out of the 71 total. That effectively makes them count as one full time player.

Also JBo is almost certainly done, so he needs to be removed from the list especially since Scandella is his replacement at this point.

At this point you can easily make the case that Petro is top 4 just based on ATOI, but TOI short handed tells us that he is higher than that.
If you look at total ice time on the PK this season, Petro is actually #3 on the team in total minutes and the number 2 defenseman behind our D leading JBo.

I would say that it is quite likely he will be missed there.

 

[simon IC]

The Dunn - Faulk pairing that some have suggested scares the heck out of me. That pairing is a goal against waiting to happen. I also think that Parayko is good enough defensively that he could cover a rookies mistakes. I am also not convinced Dunn is ready for top pairing minutes, and I think Berube would agree with me. So ;

• Scandella-Faulk
• Gunnarsson/Mikkola-Parayko
• Dunn-Bortuzzo.
• Perunovich/Mikkola

 

[bleedblue1223]

No chance in hell Dunn can play in a shutdown role next to Parayko. I like the guy but nah.

In the case of Petro walking, I like the idea of promoting Mikkola to fill the JBo role. I think he could grow into that.

Scandella-Faulk would eat up a lot of minutes as the top pair, Mikkola-Parayko is the shutdown unit and then Dunn-Bortuzzo/Gunny in their normal role.

Mikkola impressing early would be big. In theory, if he plays well you could put him with Faulk or Parayko.

 

[Blueston]

The problem with the ATOI metric is that it doesn’t really show when players don’t play games consistently. Bortuzzo and Gunner don’t play every game. Collectively they have played 78 games out of the 71 total. That effectively makes them count as one full time player.

Also JBo is almost certainly done, so he needs to be removed from the list especially since Scandella is his replacement at this point.

At this point you can easily make the case that Petro is top 4 just based on ATOI, but TOI short handed tells us that he is higher than that.
If you look at total ice time on the PK this season, Petro is actually #3 on the team in total minutes and the number 2 defenseman behind our D leading JBo.

I would say that it is quite likely he will be missed there.

Even if you assume Scandella and JayBo are 1 player and that Borts and Gunnar are 1 player (since generally only 1 is in lineup), that still leaves Petro as 4th most used D on PK by average. So you are looking at bumping up usage of Faulk there or whomever is #6D (Mikko or the other of Borts/Gunnar). Doesn't seem like major issue. I'm more worried about missing Petro at even strength where he is our best offensive D.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I think Dunn/Parayko can be able to handle the PP with similar success, Faulk is sort of an x-factor here, an x-factor on all levels though. If Faulk rebounds, then we'll more or less be in decent shape because of Parayko. The PK will come down to strategy and execution, so while filling Petro's shoes there will still be big, I'm not as concerned.

For me, it comes down to Faulk being able to anchor his pair. If he can do that, we'll be fine, if he can't we'll be in some level of trouble because it's going to change how we setup our D.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Lets say Petro does leave. What would be a bigger sin, Sydor/Arnott wearing #44, or Faulk/Thomas switching to #27? Faulk would be more likely, but both wore it in the past.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Lets say Petro does leave. What would be a bigger sin, Sydor/Arnott wearing #44, or Faulk/Thomas switching to #27? Faulk would be more likely, but both wore it in the past.

Sydor had never worn #44 in his NHL career before playing for the Blues. Arnott had worn #44 in only 247 of his 1,172 NHL games up to signing with the Blues.
Both were never going to stay long, and they weren't impact players either.

Thomas is just starting and Faulk still has several years on his career.

While Petro has the better resume wearing a Blue note, the players potentially donning his jersey are much better than the ones who donned Pronger's. In order of most to least sinful, I'd rank it Sydor, Arnott, Faulk, Thomas.

 

[izzy]

if faulk comes in, signs that contract resulting in the blues not being able to sign petro and then wears 27 he better play like a hero otherwise hes going to the most hated player ever

 

[Brockon]

My inside source thinks the season will resume soon. He said they will probably finish the regular season before the playoffs start.

I've been seeing speculation that the following is expected, with some degree of flexibility on timing:

Mid-May: informal skates at team facilities in small groups
June: 3 week training camp
July: resume regular season
August: playoffs

Can your source confirm or clarify anything resembling that timeline?

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

if faulk comes in, signs that contract resulting in the blues not being able to sign petro and then wears 27 he better play like a hero otherwise hes going to the most hated player ever

When will people let go of the idea that Armstrong would not move salary to fit Pietro’s contract if he is willing to sign an acceptable deal? If it doesn’t happen, it won’t be because of Faulk or anyone else’s contract.