2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning

[Ranksu]

So what happened to Bozak in this depth chart?

Traded and Steen buyout or traded.

 

[The Note]

I think people need to let go of the notion of Steen being bought out or traded. Bozak/Allen/Gunnarsson will all be elsewhere before they cut Steen loose. Only way I don’t see him on the team next season is if he retires, which also doesn’t seem likely.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I think people need to let go of the notion of Steen being bought out or traded. Bozak/Allen/Gunnarsson will all be elsewhere before they cut Steen loose. Only way I don’t see him on the team next season is if he retires, which also doesn’t seem likely.

I could easily see something like what Washington did with Orpik, especially if compliance buyouts become a thing. He'll be on the Blues IMO, but there is a real possibility it's on a much lower cap hit.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I think people need to let go of the notion of Steen being bought out or traded. Bozak/Allen/Gunnarsson will all be elsewhere before they cut Steen loose. Only way I don’t see him on the team next season is if he retires, which also doesn’t seem likely.

All 3 of those guys mentioned need moved anyways. Kyrou replaces Bozak, Husso replaces Allen, and Mikkola/Perunovich replace Gunnarsson.

The Blues can baaaarely sign Petro and Dunn with those 3 guys gone, and Steen still here.

If we get a compliance buyout, Army will use it on him. I don’t think Steen will mind spending his last year in Winnipeg if we don’t pull off an Orpik-type move to bring him back at a lower deal.

 

[Brian39]

All 3 of those guys mentioned need moved anyways. Kyrou replaces Bozak, Husso replaces Allen, and Mikkola/Perunovich replace Gunnarsson.

The Blues can baaaarely sign Petro and Dunn with those 3 guys gone, and Steen still here.

If we get a compliance buyout, Army will use it on him. I don’t think Steen will mind spending his last year in Winnipeg if we don’t pull off an Orpik-type move to bring him back at a lower deal.

Replacing Bozak/Allen/Gunnar with Husso/Kyrou/Mikko gives the Blues $11.7M to extend Petro and Dunn if the cap stays flat. That should be plenty of room for those 2 contracts (especially with a flat cap that hurts Petro's UFA earning potential).

Buying out Steen would still require one of Allen/Bozak to be moved in order to fit Petro. I don't think it is a given that the Blues would choose to buy out Sten and keep one of Bozak/Allen instead of keeping Steen and moving both of Bozak/Allen.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Replacing Bozak/Allen/Gunnar with Husso/Kyrou/Mikko gives the Blues $11.7M to extend Petro and Dunn if the cap stays flat. That should be plenty of room for those 2 contracts (especially with a flat cap that hurts Petro's UFA earning potential).

Buying out Steen would still require one of Allen/Bozak to be moved in order to fit Petro. I don't think it is a given that the Blues would choose to buy out Sten and keep one of Bozak/Allen instead of keeping Steen and moving both of Bozak/Allen.

Oh I meant we should move all four if we can to be honest.

 

[Brian39]

Oh I meant we should move all four if we can to be honest.

Why? All of them come off the books naturally the following season and Bozak/Steen/Allen are all above replacement level players on the ice. The only issue is that they are overpaid by some degree. There is no reason to move them once you have reached sufficient cap space to fill out the rest of your roster how you want.

 

[MissouriMook]

Replacing Bozak/Allen/Gunnar with Husso/Kyrou/Mikko gives the Blues $11.7M to extend Petro and Dunn if the cap stays flat. That should be plenty of room for those 2 contracts (especially with a flat cap that hurts Petro's UFA earning potential).

Buying out Steen would still require one of Allen/Bozak to be moved in order to fit Petro. I don't think it is a given that the Blues would choose to buy out Sten and keep one of Bozak/Allen instead of keeping Steen and moving both of Bozak/Allen.

The more I think about the potential for a compliance buyout being part of the solution to the cap staying flat, the more I think it might be Bozak instead of Steen. Steen put up 17 points in 55 games mostly in the bottom six. Bozak put up 29 points in 67 games playing in the middle six with a cameo or two on the "Sasky Line". I think with similar usage, Steen gets pretty close to the same PPG as Bozak. And while Bozak is better on faceoffs, Steen is the better defensive forward. Both are in their mid 30s, though Steen is two years older, but that makes less of a difference when you're talking about one year of play.

Ultimately, Steen is a legend here, having been here for parts of 12 seasons and expected by some to be named Captain when Backes left. Bozak has been here for less than two full seasons. The more I think about it, unless you want to maintain that there is a significant difference in production from an offensive and defensive standpoint, I think Steen stays and Bozak goes (freeing up $750K less) in this scenario in light of what he's meant to this team for over a decade.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

The more I think about the potential for a compliance buyout being part of the solution to the cap staying flat, the more I think it might be Bozak instead of Steen. Steen put up 17 points in 55 games mostly in the bottom six. Bozak put up 29 points in 67 games playing in the middle six with a cameo or two on the "Sasky Line". I think with similar usage, Steen gets pretty close to the same PPG as Bozak. And while Bozak is better on faceoffs, Steen is the better defensive forward. Both are in their mid 30s, though Steen is two years older, but that makes less of a difference when you're talking about one year of play.

Ultimately, Steen is a legend here, having been here for parts of 12 seasons and expected by some to be named Captain when Backes left. Bozak has been here for less than two full seasons. The more I think about it, unless you want to maintain that there is a significant difference in production from an offensive and defensive standpoint, I think Steen stays and Bozak goes (freeing up $750K less) in this scenario in light of what he's meant to this team for over a decade.

I think its more likely like this:
Bozak is slightly overpaid, but still a productive player at a position of need around the league. It won't be that hard to trade him. The Blues could retain a bit. But more likely, other teams that use a compliance buy-out on an anchor player (like Backes) will have sufficient flexibility to trade for a guy like Bozak. The Blues won't need to use a buy-out, since the cumulative effect of buy-outs around the league is that the overall cap is a bit higher, or the equivalent result.

Steen will play out his deal. There have been too many times when young players mentioned how instrumental Steen has been in their growth. He's doing just fine this season. They will pay him his contract and be happy.

If they can't move Bozak or Allen, then a compliance buy-out could make sense. But I think both of those guys can be moved without having to retain too much salary. Retaining salary starts to eat into the Pietro money, so its not a good option past a minimal point.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Why? All of them come off the books naturally the following season and Bozak/Steen/Allen are all above replacement level players on the ice. The only issue is that they are overpaid by some degree. There is no reason to move them once you have reached sufficient cap space to fill out the rest of your roster how you want.

Because we have NHL-ready replacement players who make A LOT less money combined to put up similar or potentially better numbers. Kyrou, Kostin, Mikkola/Perunovich, and Husso should all be on this team next season.

That and we need to move their money to sign our captain, and best left handed d-man.

If keeping Steen doesn’t hurt our chances at signing them, by all means keep him, or better yet, pull an Orpik deal. I just don’t want to lose out on keeping our arguably best player.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

The more I think about the potential for a compliance buyout being part of the solution to the cap staying flat, the more I think it might be Bozak instead of Steen. Steen put up 17 points in 55 games mostly in the bottom six. Bozak put up 29 points in 67 games playing in the middle six with a cameo or two on the "Sasky Line". I think with similar usage, Steen gets pretty close to the same PPG as Bozak. And while Bozak is better on faceoffs, Steen is the better defensive forward. Both are in their mid 30s, though Steen is two years older, but that makes less of a difference when you're talking about one year of play.

Ultimately, Steen is a legend here, having been here for parts of 12 seasons and expected by some to be named Captain when Backes left. Bozak has been here for less than two full seasons. The more I think about it, unless you want to maintain that there is a significant difference in production from an offensive and defensive standpoint, I think Steen stays and Bozak goes (freeing up $750K less) in this scenario in light of what he's meant to this team for over a decade.

I think bozak is close to steen defensively. Steen isnt what he was defensively in his prime and gets overrated like he was. Bozak i still has a decent edge on steen offensively but i agree it makes more sense to move bozak. A team is actually gonna be willing to trade for bozak where steen you either have to buy him out and still pay part of cap for a couple years or trade a pick to get someone to take contract.

Moving bozak is better asset management as he might even get a pick in return if we are lucky.

Bozaks main value over steen is that hes a center but with oreilly, schenn, thomas, sundquist, and barbashev, we are more than set on center depth.

 

[Brian39]

Because we have NHL-ready replacement players who make A LOT less money combined to put up similar or potentially better numbers. Kyrou, Kostin, Mikkola/Perunovich, and Husso should all be on this team next season.

That and we need to move their money to sign our captain, and best left handed d-man.

If keeping Steen doesn’t hurt our chances at signing them, by all means keep him, or better yet, pull an Orpik deal. I just don’t want to lose out on keeping our arguably best player.

There is very, very little chance that Kyrou and Kostin can effectively replace Steen and Bozak's actual contribution to the team. At least one of them would have to have a better rookie season than Thomas did for that to happen. That is far from a lock. Neither are even remotely close to filling the defensive and neutral zone play. They would have to drastically outperform the offensive production for it to be a wash.

I'm all for moving 2 of Bozak/Allen/Steen in order to free up enough space to re-sign Petro. And moving 2 of them accomplishes that goal. Moving the 3rd one in order to open up a roster spot for a rookie forward is a very, very different discussion though.

 

[Brian39]

I think bozak is close to steen defensively. Steen isnt what he was defensively in his prime and gets overrated like he was. Bozak i still has a decent edge on steen offensively but i agree it makes more sense to move bozak. A team is actually gonna be willing to trade for bozak where steen you either have to buy him out and still pay part of cap for a couple years or trade a pick to get someone to take contract.

Moving bozak is better asset management as he might even get a pick in return if we are lucky.

Bozaks main value over steen is that hes a center but with oreilly, schenn, thomas, sundquist, and barbashev, we are more than set on center depth.

I agree that the difference in defensive play at 5 on 5 isn't all that big. But Steen's PK ability exceeds Bozak's by a noticeable margin.

I agree that Bozak is better asset management. He will return better value and I think we have greater organizational strength to replace Bozak's strengths than we do Steen's. If you are talking about using Kyrou/Kostin as the replacement, they are much better suited in an offensive 3rd line winger role than a defensively sound PK specialist who has enough skill to move into the middle 6 when injuries hit. I'd rather staple Steen to the 4th line and let the young guys take the 3rd line spot vacated by Bozak.

 

[Celtic Note]

Even if we move Allen, is Husso really the goalie that we would use to fill the hole? I would have to imagine Armstrong will at a bare minimum go UFA dumpster diving to find someone more reliable or provide competition.

 

[Mike Liut]

If Kyrou and Kostin started game 1 in 2021 and played every game, by game 82 I think we’d be extremely happy with both. Just like we are with Thomas.

 

[MissouriMook]

If Kyrou and Kostin started game 1 in 2021 and played every game, by game 82 I think we’d be extremely happy with both. Just like we are with Thomas.

Part of the challenge with this is putting up with the inevitable mistakes when the coaching staff seems predisposed against learning on the job for anyone other than exceptional players like Thomas. Personally, I would be fine with it, especially in the context of moves that solidify the D and allow for covering up a lot of those mistakes. It almost certainly makes it more challenging to be a regular season front runner, but I feel like getting that kind of experience under their belts going into the playoffs more than offsets any lack of positioning since we’re notoriously good on the road, especially in the playoffs.

 

[Blueston]

If Kyrou and Kostin started game 1 in 2021 and played every game, by game 82 I think we’d be extremely happy with both. Just like we are with Thomas.

I think Kyrou after this year will be ready to handle every day role next year. I expect Kostin next year to be more like Kyrou was this year, shows flashes, helps at times, but not somebody we can truly count on. Not that Kostin can't be very good or that we shouldn't play him, just that is how I expect his development (like many young players) will occur.

 

[Stealth JD]

Part of the challenge with this is putting up with the inevitable mistakes when the coaching staff seems predisposed against learning on the job for anyone other than exceptional players like Thomas. Personally, I would be fine with it, especially in the context of moves that solidify the D and allow for covering up a lot of those mistakes. It almost certainly makes it more challenging to be a regular season front runner, but I feel like getting that kind of experience under their belts going into the playoffs more than offsets any lack of positioning since we’re notoriously good on the road, especially in the playoffs.

The Blues are definitely going to need those young guys playoff proven and ready to take a larger step in 3-4 years, as Schwartz, Tarasenko & ROR fade from their peaks. The next wave must be made ready quickly; and learning under a veteran, Championship-caliber group of veterans is about as perfect of a scenario a front office could dream for, let alone plan for. Dunn, Thomas, Kyrou, Klim, Perunovich...next year their roles will almost certainly be larger...which means there will definitely be the 2-3 spot roster turnover that tends to organically happen anyway.

 

[Brian39]

If Kyrou and Kostin started game 1 in 2021 and played every game, by game 82 I think we’d be extremely happy with both. Just like we are with Thomas.

I don't think either will have a ton of success playing mostly 4th line minutes at even strength and seeing a zone start split at 55/45 in favor of defensive starts. One of them would almost certainly have to do that if both are part of the healthy top 12. I don't see a scenario where we have Sunny+Barby on the 4th line and one of Blais/Mac on the 4th line with the other in the press box. All of that would need to happen for Kyrou and Kostin to get every day top 9 usage even if Steen+Bozak are both gone.

I like a Barby-Sunny-Kostin line in terms of on-ice play, but I don't think it would be ideal for Kostin's development. I also can't find a 3rd line I like much if we do that. Plus, using Sunny and Barby on the 4th line means that you have to keep Thomas out of the top 6 to use as your 3C. Options such as sliding Schenn to the wing with Thomas at Center or sometimes sliding Thomas to wing are eliminated that way.

I want Kyrou in the NHL full time getting top 9 usage all season next year. I think his play off the puck has turned the corner enough to merit that. But I'd rather see Kostin get heavy AHL usage over 4th line usage and then get called up to fill in a top 9 spot when injury demands it.

I just want to be clear, injuries are inevitable and I would be assuming that Kostin would wind up playing 40+ NHL games even if he starts next year in the AHL.

 

[Brian39]

Double post to actually put my tentative plan for next year into writing

Forwards:
Schwartz-ROR-Perron
Schenn-Thomas-Tarasenko
Sanford-Sunny-Kyrou
Blais-Barby-Steen
Extras: Mac and some vet whose development we don't care about making $850k

Chemistry may dictate swapping Schenn and Schwartz. I'd imagine that bottom 6 would get shuffled around mid-game and throughout the year as well. Kostin would leap frog forward #14 when injuries give him a chance to be called up and get in the lineup. I'd also be fine just having 13 forwards on the opening day roster with the understanding that Kostin will be called up and down often, but I prefer having a 14th forward who is ready to go when there are last second tweaks/illnesses.

Defense:
Dunn-Petro
Scandella-Parayko
Mikkola-Faulk
Extra: Bortz

Binner
Husso/cheap UFA vet

I want Husso to win the job in camp, but I'd like him to have to earn it. Bring in a vet for $1M to push him.

Assuming a flat cap of $81.5M this lineup can be accomplished by giving Petro $8.5M AAV, Dunn a $1.5M AAV over 2 years and trading Allen, Bozak and Gunnar while retaining a total of $1M in salary in one or more of those deals. We would have $500k-$750k in remaining cap space with a 23 man roster (depending on who the backup is). If Dunn doesn't like that bridge, I would be happy to give him a 1 year deal at $1M and with the intention of negotiating a multi-year extension next summer once Steen comes off the books and we have more clarity about who gets lost in the expansion draft. We could then use that extra $500k to retain extra salary in a trade to improve the value of the players we are moving.

Obviously there is no guarantee that the cap remains flat instead of decreasing, but I think any decrease to cap will also come with compliance buyouts that make it easier to shed necessary salary. A drastically lower cap might necessitate reliance on Kostin at the expense of his development, but should still make it doable to return every single guy who is part of the extended core.

 

[izzy]

husso will be 26 by the middle of next season

if hes not on the team next year, he might be moved elsewhere at some point

 

[Brian39]

husso will be 26 by the middle of next season

if hes not on the team next year, he might be moved elsewhere at some point

If Husso doesn't make the NHL roster out of camp, he will have to pass through waivers. This is the last year he was waivers-exempt. If he doesn't make the team, it means that the team is comfortable moving on from him.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Dunn a $1.5M AAV over 2 years...If Dunn doesn't like that bridge, I would be happy to give him a 1 year deal at $1M and with the intention of negotiating a multi-year extension next summer once Steen comes off the books and we have more clarity about who gets lost in the expansion draft. We could then use that extra $500k to retain extra salary in a trade to improve the value of the players we are moving.

Didn't you go after me for saying no one is saying a "Labanc" deal is likely?

 

[Brian39]

Didn't you go after me for saying no one is saying a "Labanc" deal is likely?

Where am I saying it is likely that he accepts the 2nd offer? What Army offers vs what he is likely to accept are very different things.

My point is that my only other offer if Dunn didn't want to accept the $1.5M AAV would be 1 year at $1M. If I'm Army, I'm not negotiating beyond that. Dunn can sit out if he wants or seek an offer sheet. If he sits out, then we'll see what Perunovich has to offer in camp and reassess from there. I'm more than happy to give Perunovich a chance to steal Dunn's job if Dunn wants to hold out. If he gets an offer sheet I'd consider matching, but otherwise those two offers are the options he would have from the St. Louis Blues. I think he would ultimately accept the $1.5M AAV 2 year deal. It is feasible (although I think unlikely) that Dunn takes the 1 year, $1M deal and it is feasible (although I think unlikely) that Dunn finds someone to send him an offer sheet.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Where am I saying it is likely that he accepts the 2nd offer? What Army offers vs what he is likely to accept are very different things.

My point is that my only other offer if Dunn didn't want to accept the $1.5M AAV would be 1 year at $1M. If I'm Army, I'm not negotiating beyond that. Dunn can sit out if he wants or seek an offer sheet. If he gets an offer sheet I'd consider matching, but otherwise those are the two offers he would get from the St. Louis Blues. I think he would ultimately accept the $1.5M AAV 2 year deal. It is feasible (although I think unlikely) that Dunn takes the 1 year, $1M deal and it is feasible (although I think unlikely) that Dunn finds someone to send him an offer sheet.

You are arguing that his comp is Grzelcyk after the 17/18 season. There is 0% chance he takes 1.5M for 2 years IMO.