2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning

[BlueDream]

I do agree. I'm assuming they thought they could get one of the guys to perform well on the left side. When it was working, Petro was playing outstanding hockey. If he's not at his best. The experiment doesn't work. I think Bortuzzo fills that 3rd pairing role perfectly.

As much as some suggest, I dont think anyone actually hates Faulk. But him being fine is the problem. He has to actually perform to his standards and imo, beyond that. We have 3 new players over the last 3 years that seamlessly adapted to the team. Schenn, Orielly and now Scandella have dropped right in and hit the ground running. Faulk just hasnt had that happen

This. Getting tired of seeing how he’s been “fine”. That’s not good enough.

He has 14 points this year. That’s not enough.

The contract, if he continues this “fine” play, is atrocious. He needs to improve greatly to make up for it.

 

[Stealth JD]

This. Getting tired of seeing how he’s been “fine”. That’s not good enough.

He has 14 points this year. That’s not enough.

The contract, if he continues this “fine” play, is atrocious. He needs to improve greatly to make up for it.

I don't even care about the points...the team is getting outscored pretty significantly while he's on the ice. He could put up 0 points for all i care, so long as he's not a detriment to the team on the scoreboard like he has been thus far. He's simply not carrying his own weight, let alone living up to the disaster of a contract-extension.

 

[Blueston]

I don't even care about the points...the team is getting outscored pretty significantly while he's on the ice. He could put up 0 points for all i care, so long as he's not a detriment to the team on the scoreboard like he has been thus far. He's simply not carrying his own weight, let alone living up to the disaster of a contract-extension.

You need to separate bad results from bad play. All advances stats say he has generally been good but has bad luck.

 

[MissouriMook]

It’s manageable, but it’s just bad roster construction. If you have a roster with Petro Faulk and Parayko on it, and you’re paying two of them at least $9mil a year for two years, Faulk shouldn’t be one of them. If you have a roster like ours, Faulk shouldn’t be *the highest paid player on the team* next year.

It’s especially bad for our contract negotiations with Petro and, later Parayko, because if we think Faulk’s performance and role is worth $9mil, what must they be worth?! $11mil each?

...

I think you're conflating annual salary and cap hit here in a way that is very misleading. While Faulk will make $9M next season, his AAV for the new deal is only $6.5M. I'm sure that if we are able to bring Petro back at an AAV of $9M or less, his annual numbers will likely range between $12M next year and $6M the final year. A future Parayko extension will likely be structured similarly.

 

[MissouriMook]

I do agree. I'm assuming they thought they could get one of the guys to perform well on the left side. When it was working, Petro was playing outstanding hockey. If he's not at his best. The experiment doesn't work. I think Bortuzzo fills that 3rd pairing role perfectly.

As much as some suggest, I dont think anyone actually hates Faulk. But him being fine is the problem. He has to actually perform to his standards and imo, beyond that. We have 3 new players over the last 3 years that seamlessly adapted to the team. Schenn, Orielly and now Scandella have dropped right in and hit the ground running. Faulk just hasnt had that happen

I think the 80/20 rule applies here in that I think 80% of the problem has been his utilization and 20% has been his performance. He's been 1000% better when on the right side with a lefty partner. The only righty we have that plays well on the left is Bortuzzo. Petro is OK on the left, but far from as effective as he could be if properly slotted.

Ultimately, I think you hit the nail on the head that this was an experiment to see if we could make it work with three righties in the Top 4, and it didn't work. I'm sure they will address it one way or another in the offseason.

 

[Stealth JD]

You need to separate bad results from bad play. All advances stats say he has generally been good but has bad luck.

But advanced stats can make a bad/dumb play appear to simply be bad luck, when in fact it was still a dumb play. If a turn-over is made in your own end, but a shot that gets saved 95% of the time still ends up beating the goalie, does that mean the defenseman is not at fault for the initial turnover? There have been countless times where Dunn and Faulk probably didn't deserve a goal scored against them, but it still went in. Yet had they made a better decision with the puck and cleared the zone the puck is up ice instead of in the back of their own net. This may be over-simplification, but you can see a goal against coming many times with a failure to clear a puck or a bad turnover at the offensive blue-line. At the end of the day results are what matter, not statistical analysis saying someone deserved a better fate than they got.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

I think you're conflating annual salary and cap hit here in a way that is very misleading. While Faulk will make $9M next season, his AAV for the new deal is only $6.5M. I'm sure that if we are able to bring Petro back at an AAV of $9M or less, his annual numbers will likely range between $12M next year and $6M the final year. A future Parayko extension will likely be structured similarly.

I don’t think I am at all. I know what his cap hit is, he’s still taking home a bigger paycheck than anyone else on our team the next two years, barring a new Petro contract or some unpredictable series of trades. He does not play like our top-paid player, nor was he ever expected to. So if Petro sees that a 3rd pairing offensive specialist that can’t produce offensively can get $9mil a year, that’s the absolute baseline of what he’s likely to accept. And if he takes a contract that is structured to pay out $12mil in the early years, I’m *fine* with that because he probably *is* our most important player, and deserves to get paid as such. Faulk could easily be replaced by a player whose cap hit and actual salary are much more reasonable (I already mentioned Colin Miller, but there are others). The same can’t be said about Petro or Parayko.

The irony is that Faulk isn’t really producing that much more than Eddy this year. We paid a lot of assets, cap space, and actual money to tinker and have an experiment that was doomed from the start... and then we *locked it in* by handing him very favorable contract terms and a full NTC. There was never any reason we needed a 3rd RHD as expensive as Faulk, and it still left a really difficult imbalance in our d-pairs that we are going to continue to struggle with, because all of our cash is tied up on the right side. We need to re-sign Scandella, but I’m honestly not sure how we do that with a $6.5mil cap hit tied down to the bottom pair. Losing Bouwmeester didn’t help that situation at all. Are we ever going to have somebody that can play with Petro? Or are we just going to have a rotating cast forever? We might not have a choice...

It was just a baffling decision that makes less and less sense as time goes on.

 

[Brian39]

It’s manageable, but it’s just bad roster construction. If you have a roster with Petro Faulk and Parayko on it, and you’re paying two of them at least $9mil a year for two years, Faulk shouldn’t be one of them. If you have a roster like ours, Faulk shouldn’t be *the highest paid player on the team* next year.

It’s especially bad for our contract negotiations with Petro and, later Parayko, because if we think Faulk’s performance and role is worth $9mil, what must they be worth?! $11mil each?

I don’t even dislike Faulk that much, he’s fine. But there were cheaper options out there that probably would have been a better fit (Scandella is a good example of this), and we didn’t have to sign him to a huge extension before he ever put on a Blues uniform. We went big game hunting and got the guy we wanted, but I’m not sure it made us better. Getting a guy like Colin Miller for a third of the price would have effectively achieved the same goal.

I vehemently disagree with the concept that roster construction should be judged by examining which players have their most lucrative season in any given contract. Tarasenko makes $9.5M this year, just $5.5 next year and then $9.5M again in 2021/22. Parayko makes $2M less next year than in the two surrounding years. Players were scared that there would be a lockout in 2020/21 so they structured their contracts to minimize financial loss in that season. The fact that we front loaded Faulk's deal in that season where our real dollars spent elsewhere is lower doesn't say anything negative about roster construction.

Front loading Faulk's deal this way makes it easier to move. Making sure he was paid less than Tarasenko/ROR during the "cheap" years of their contract would have meant putting more money into seasons where we may want another team to take him.

And yes. Petro is absolutely getting a contract that nets him $11M in at least one of the seasons. Josi is making $11.75M next season and $10.75M the next year (AAV of $9.059). EK has 2 seasons of $14.5M (AAV of $11.5M). OEL has 3 seasons at $10.5M (AAV of $8.25M). This is how contracts work in the NHL now. You stagger the "big" years of your more expensive deals in order to keep your salary structure manageable.

There are roster construction and cap management issues around the Faulk deal. The year he gets his largest salary isn't one of them.

 

[Blueston]

But advanced stats can make a bad/dumb play appear to simply be bad luck, when in fact it was still a dumb play. If a turn-over is made in your own end, but a shot that gets saved 95% of the time still ends up beating the goalie, does that mean the defenseman is not at fault for the initial turnover? There have been countless times where Dunn and Faulk probably didn't deserve a goal scored against them, but it still went in. Yet had they made a better decision with the puck and cleared the zone the puck is up ice instead of in the back of their own net. This may be over-simplification, but you can see a goal against coming many times with a failure to clear a puck or a bad turnover at the offensive blue-line. At the end of the day results are what matter, not statistical analysis saying someone deserved a better fate than they got.

If Allen allows goal from center ice is it fair to blame D? If he makes great save after D coughed up puck in slot does that mean D shouldn't be blamed? If D turns over puck and results in great scoring chance, D is equally at fault regardless of whether goalie made amazing save or allowed goal.

Obviously team with more goals wins game, not expected goals or high danger chances or any other advanced stat. But the whole point of looking at the advanced stats is to evaluate players and project forward. And since puck luck generally evens out over time, things like expected goal % tend to be better predictor of future success than +/-.

 

[Brian39]

I don’t think I am at all. I know what his cap hit is, he’s still taking home a bigger paycheck than anyone else on our team the next two years, barring a new Petro contract or some unpredictable series of trades. He does not play like our top-paid player, nor was he ever expected to. So if Petro sees that a 3rd pairing offensive specialist that can’t produce offensively can get $9mil a year, that’s the absolute baseline of what he’s likely to accept. And if he takes a contract that is structured to pay out $12mil in the early years, I’m *fine* with that because he probably *is* our most important player, and deserves to get paid as such. Faulk could easily be replaced by a player whose cap hit and actual salary are much more reasonable (I already mentioned Colin Miller, but there are others). The same can’t be said about Petro or Parayko.

The irony is that Faulk isn’t really producing that much more than Eddy this year. We paid a lot of assets, cap space, and actual money to tinker and have an experiment that was doomed from the start... and then we *locked it in* by handing him very favorable contract terms and a full NTC. There was never any reason we needed a 3rd RHD as expensive as Faulk, and it still left a really difficult imbalance in our d-pairs that we are going to continue to struggle with, because all of our cash is tied up on the right side. We need to re-sign Scandella, but I’m honestly not sure how we do that with a $6.5mil cap hit tied down to the bottom pair. Losing Bouwmeester didn’t help that situation at all. Are we ever going to have somebody that can play with Petro? Or are we just going to have a rotating cast forever? We might not have a choice...

It was just a baffling decision that makes less and less sense as time goes on.

Are you penciling in Tarasenko being traded? Because he makes $9.5M in 2021/22.

You are living in another reality if you believed there was any hope that Petro wouldn't hit $9M in any season of a new extension (with or without the existence of Faulk). The baseline of his highest paid years was well above $9M way before we extended Faulk.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Are you penciling in Tarasenko being traded? Because he makes $9.5M in 2021/22.

You are living in another reality if you believed there was any hope that Petro wouldn't hit $9M in any season of a new extension (with or without the existence of Faulk). The baseline of his highest paid years was well above $9M way before we extended Faulk.

Ok fine, second highest paid player. Or third. Or fourth. He isn’t a top 5 player on this team, hell he isn’t even a part of the core! He shouldn’t be getting paid $9mil for what he brings to the table, which can easily be replaced by someone much cheaper.

And I’m not saying that Petro somehow wouldn’t have known that he’s worth $11mil without Faulk here. It’s obvious he knows that. But we greatly weaken our bargaining position when we value what Faulk brings to the table at $9mil. How much better is Petro than Faulk? $2mil better? That doesn’t seem even remotely accurate. $5mil better? Maybe. We can’t afford that tho. It’s a stronger bargaining position for us if we can say “look, we only think this guy is worth $5mil, we think you’re twice as good as him so we’ll give you $10” or whatever. Giving Faulk a big payday was a silly thing to do, even if we frontloaded it to make it easier to trade down the line (in which case we shouldn’t have given him a full NTC until like the last year or two of his contract).

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Ok fine, second highest paid player. Or third. Or fourth. He isn’t a top 5 player on this team, hell he isn’t even a part of the core! He shouldn’t be getting paid $9mil for what he brings to the table, which can easily be replaced by someone much cheaper.

And I’m not saying that Petro somehow wouldn’t have known that he’s worth $11mil without Faulk here. It’s obvious he knows that. But we greatly weaken our bargaining position when we value what Faulk brings to the table at $9mil. How much better is Petro than Faulk? $2mil better? That doesn’t seem even remotely accurate. $5mil better? Maybe. We can’t afford that tho. It’s a stronger bargaining position for us if we can say “look, we only think this guy is worth $5mil, we think you’re twice as good as him so we’ll give you $10” or whatever. Giving Faulk a big payday was a silly thing to do, even if we frontloaded it to make it easier to trade down the line (in which case we shouldn’t have given him a full NTC until like the last year or two of his contract).

I don’t know if Faulk will be important to the Blues in the future, or it was just a way to get a mature player to replace Edmundson for a cheap acquisition price. But I don’t think anyone will argue that he’s been put in an optimal situation. Inconsistent partner and inconsistent side. We haven’t seen his best, most likely. I’m not arguing that the Blues should have used him differently, since I certainly wouldn’t want to do so at Pietro or Parayko’s expense. But it should be acknowledged.

We need to see who is on the roster next year to see if his usage might be improved. I don’t expect him to play his whole contract being bounced around this way.

 

[Dbrownss]

Ok fine, second highest paid player. Or third. Or fourth. He isn’t a top 5 player on this team, hell he isn’t even a part of the core! He shouldn’t be getting paid $9mil for what he brings to the table, which can easily be replaced by someone much cheaper.

And I’m not saying that Petro somehow wouldn’t have known that he’s worth $11mil without Faulk here. It’s obvious he knows that. But we greatly weaken our bargaining position when we value what Faulk brings to the table at $9mil. How much better is Petro than Faulk? $2mil better? That doesn’t seem even remotely accurate. $5mil better? Maybe. We can’t afford that tho. It’s a stronger bargaining position for us if we can say “look, we only think this guy is worth $5mil, we think you’re twice as good as him so we’ll give you $10” or whatever. Giving Faulk a big payday was a silly thing to do, even if we frontloaded it to make it easier to trade down the line (in which case we shouldn’t have given him a full NTC until like the last year or two of his contract).

I used this argument before and was smacked around by much smarter people in the world of contract negotiations. Pietro is going to use his peers to argue his contract.

I don’t know if Faulk will be important to the Blues in the future, or it was just a way to get a mature player to replace Edmundson for a cheap acquisition price. But I don’t think anyone will argue that he’s been put in an optimal situation. Inconsistent partner and inconsistent side. We haven’t seen his best, most likely. I’m not arguing that the Blues should have used him differently, since I certainly wouldn’t want to do so at Pietro or Parayko’s expense. But it should be acknowledged.

We need to see who is on the roster next year to see if his usage might be improved. I don’t expect him to play his whole contract being bounced around this way.

I know I'm a broken record....but even at his best I'm pretty meh about him. The sentiment out of carolina was he was just a good but not great dman. I'm ok with giving him a break when he's of his offside but he's also spent time as the 3rd RD...he should absolutely be dominant there and I don't know if he has.

 

[MissouriMook]

If everyone manages to stay healthy, it would be hard for me to see anyone other than Blais coming out of the lineup when Tarasenko is ready to come back in. He certainly hasn't been bad, but he's needed to be better than Sanford or Kyrou and he hasn't. Here is what I expect to see as the regular forward lines when 91 returns:

Schwartz-ROR-Schenn
Sanford-Thomas-Tarasenko
Perron-Bozak-Kyrou
Barby-Sunny-Steen

 

[Mike Liut]

If everyone manages to stay healthy, it would be hard for me to see anyone other than Blais coming out of the lineup when Tarasenko is ready to come back in. He certainly hasn't been bad, but he's needed to be better than Sanford or Kyrou and he hasn't. Here is what I expect to see as the regular forward lines when 91 returns:

Schwartz-ROR-Schenn
Sanford-Thomas-Tarasenko
Perron-Bozak-Kyrou
Barby-Sunny-Steen

I hate taking out Blais’ physicality from the playoffs. He was a force last playoffs and very important. Steen and Bozak bring very little to the table.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

If everyone manages to stay healthy, it would be hard for me to see anyone other than Blais coming out of the lineup when Tarasenko is ready to come back in. He certainly hasn't been bad, but he's needed to be better than Sanford or Kyrou and he hasn't. Here is what I expect to see as the regular forward lines when 91 returns:

Schwartz-ROR-Schenn
Sanford-Thomas-Tarasenko
Perron-Bozak-Kyrou
Barby-Sunny-Steen

Yeah, we really are in a great spot with our forwards. Glad we didn't sell off our 1st to add even more to a potential log-jam. We even have DLR who could get in for a game or two in the playoffs depending on what the matchup needs are.

 

[BlueDream]

I hate taking out Blais’ physicality from the playoffs. He was a force last playoffs and very important. Steen and Bozak bring very little to the table.

Except they both bring veteran leadership. And are key penalty killers and used in defensive situations (also because Bozak is a great faceoff guy). Plus they are both producing more points than Blais too.

Right now it’s pretty clearly Blais as the odd man out. He needs to step it up.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Blais or Kyrou are the odd ones out right now IMO.

 

[Brian39]

Sanford deserves a ton of credit. He isn't going to stay as hot as he's been lately, but he has completely and totally rewarded Berube's faith in him. He's suddenly 7th on the team in points despite not playing in 13 of our games. He will finish the season at a 35 point pace even if he plays in every remaining game and doesn't score a point. He is currently at a 46 point pace per 82 games and appears very likely to finish the year as a 40-45 point pace player with actual point totals in the upper 30s.

Even assuming he cools down quickly, he has exceeded the expected return on investment from his $1.5M cap hit. His recent play has demonstrated that he isn't just a guy who can produce adequately with ROR/Perron and his defensive play has been good.

I wasn't part of the group losing their minds about Berube playing him, but I was leaving him out of my preferred healthy lineup for the first couple months of the season. I was dead wrong about that and am happy Berube stuck with him. He will have to keep playing well to keep it, but he has earned a top 9 spot when the roster is fully healthy.

Which brings me to my main point. ROR, Schenn, Schwartz, Perron, Thomas, Tarasenko, Sanford, Kyrou, Sundqvist and Bozak. That's 10 names of guys who I believe have proven themselves to be legit top 9 players for a playoff team. I was advocating for a rental to get us through the long term Blais/Tarasenko injuries, but I'm glad Army didn't listen to me. Allowing internal competition to fill those spots has given us 10 guys within the organization who can comfortably play a top 9 role in the playoffs. And it didn't develop those guys at the expense of results as we currently sit 1st in the Central and Conference by points and points percentage.

This forward group is primed for a run. We have demonstrated that we can be a good (but not great) offense without our best goal scorer. A single injury in the playoffs shouldn't cripple us. Even if a Kyrou/Sanford disappears in the playoffs, Sunny might be the best bottom 6 swiss army knife in the league. We have Barby, Steen, Blais, Mac, DLR and even Brouwer available to fill 2 lineup spots when we are fully healthy. And Thomas is looking more and more like a legitimate star every night. I see a group that is noticeably better than last year's forward group that was good enough to absolutely dominate 5 on 5. We have a top 5 PP in the league.

There are 18 games left in the regular season and anything can happen in the playoffs. But Army and Berube couldn't have done a better job constructing a forward group to defend the Cup. If the D can elevate their game back to last year's form (which they are showing signs of), this team has a very, very real shot. At absolute worst, this team has shut up anyone who was quick to call last year a fluke. Even if we don't repeat, this group has at the very least quieted anyone who wanted to compare the Blues Cup to the Hurricanes Cup.

 

[Reality Czech]

I hate taking out Blais’ physicality from the playoffs. He was a force last playoffs and very important. Steen and Bozak bring very little to the table.

If you expect Berube to sit two of his best defensive forwards and top PKers for Blais, expect to be disappointed. Not gonna happen, nor should it. Blais hasn't done much since he came back from his injury, so let's see if he can find his game again before putting him in any playoff lineups.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Not only has Sanford improved his production, but he's a quality penalty-killer too. He's someone that can play in all situations, which is great to have up and down the lineup. This is one of the main differences between this club and the teams of the past when our 4th line was just energy and our 3rd was full of top 6 rejects like Roy, Stewart, Morrow, etc.

 

[MissouriMook]

I hate taking out Blais’ physicality from the playoffs. He was a force last playoffs and very important. Steen and Bozak bring very little to the table.

You're delusional if you think either of those veterans will be a healthy scratch in the playoffs to get Blais in the lineup. Kyrou will be coming out before either of them.

 

[Mike Liut]

You're delusional if you think either of those veterans will be a healthy scratch in the playoffs to get Blais in the lineup. Kyrou will be coming out before either of them.

I am delusional. That’s how I roll

 

[Ranksu]

Should Bozak be out when Tarasenko back? I really like Kyrou compare to Bozak. Even Blais brings more in the table tähän Bozak.

 

[Mike Liut]

Should Bozak be out when Tarasenko back? I really like Kyrou compare to Bozak. Even Blais brings more in the table tähän Bozak.

That’s what I’m trying to say. I like what Kyrou and Blais bring to the table way more than Bozak.