I think this slump has gone on long enough that we could barbecue a few sacred cows to shake things up a bit and see if we can get some more consistent play. If I could make 4 changes (outside of a trade) here is what I would do.
1. Move Schenn to wing and Bozak back to center. Schenn needs a wake up call Ashe has been pretty ineffective for most of the season.
2. Split Schwartz and Schenn. They’ve both been off quite a bit this season and I would expect that some of the problem is that when one is struggling it fuels the other to struggle as well.
3. Stop with the offside D experiment in the Top 4. It hasn’t worked with any of 27, 55 or 72 there. Bortz is the only righty that has shown an ability to flourish on the left. Put 29-27, 77-55 and 41-72 together and leave them alone for a while with 4 as the extra.
4. The “second” PP unit goes out first. End of discussion.
12-90-57
9-21-10
17-18-33
20-49-70
29-27
77-55
41-72
50 gets 2/3 of the remaining starts.
I don't have a problem throwing some lines into the blender, but I disagree about point #2. Schwartz and Schenn are on pace for 62 and 65 points. They are both a bit negative on expected goal differential, but nothing that is way low. Considering the rotating door on their RW since Tarasenko went down, I'm not sure what more could reasonably be expected from that line. They aren't both going to be 70+ point players when the 3rd piece of the line is a middle 6 guy punching above his weight class. Again, I don't have a problem trying out new combos and I don't think they absolutely have to stay together all year. Schenn/Schwartz have absolutely been slumping over the last month and might need a kick start to get out of that. But overall for the season, they are playing right at expectations and in line with their contracts.
As for the PP units, I'm confused by the 2nd unit. They are dynamic moving the puck, but can't seem to translate it to goals all that well. Perron, Schwartz and Schenn are the only forwards with a PP goal since 1/1/20. The 2nd unit has scored 3 times since the New Year, with one of them being a nice passing play that led to a cross ice pass to Faulk who was down low. That goal was a good example of the unit's puck movement leading to a goal. Parayko has the other 2, one of them being a shot from the circle he buried on a rebound off the post and the other being a D to D one-timer that both our units seem fond of trying. The D have generated almost all of the scoring by that unit for a moth and a half. Meanwhile, the top unit has scored 11 goals in the same time frame. So overall, the top unit is outscoring the 2nd unit 11-3 in the new year, which is a higher ratio than the PP TOI advantage they hold. Our PP% is 5th in the league since 1/1/20. 9th since 2/1/20.
The top unit's inability to enter the zone effectively is frustrating as hell to watch, but overall they aren't nearly the problem people are suggesting they are. Let's pretend that every one of our PPs had ended the instant our top unit came off the ice (but every other NHL team still got the full 2 minutes with both of their units). Our PP% would still be 13th in the NHL since the New Year. Our top unit has scored as many or more goals than 17 other teams since 1/1/20 (not other teams' top units, the total PP goals of those 17 teams). The top unit is performing. The PP is not something that needs to be fixed.
