2019 - 2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 2: The Depth from Within

[542365]

I'm not concerned with the xG increase, honestly. When the playoff Blues make an appearance, and they have a few times this year, they're flat out dominant. I don't think it's possible, or even very wise, honestly, to play at that playoff intensity all year. We saw that with Hitch's Blues teams. He got the absolute most out of them throughout the regular season, and they won a ton of games because of that. When the playoffs rolled around, though, they didn't have another gear. This Blues team pretty clearly has another gear, and it's simply elite. When they find their game, they just smother teams and generate far more quality chances than they give up. It's why we've had so many come from behind wins this year. When it's time to get going, we get going with the absolute best of them.

It is quite odd to see a Blues team truly banking on the strength of their goaltending. I hope we step up the intensity in February and March and make our goalies' lives a bit easier back there. Until then I'm not too concerned, though. We all know what this team is capable of.

 

[Blueston]

I'll say again, Armstrong knows that if we lose Pietrangelo our Cup window essentially closes immediately. I don't think there's anyway he allows that. He'll make other moves if necessary to get Pietrangelo signed. It may not be until the off-season but I'm very confident it will happen.

Petro leaving would obviously hurt club but I don’t believe it ends Cup chances. Other D would have to step up but this is still excellent club.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I'm not concerned with the xG increase, honestly. When the playoff Blues make an appearance, and they have a few times this year, they're flat out dominant. I don't think it's possible, or even very wise, honestly, to play at that playoff intensity all year. We saw that with Hitch's Blues teams. He got the absolute most out of them throughout the regular season, and they won a ton of games because of that. When the playoffs rolled around, though, they didn't have another gear. This Blues team pretty clearly has another gear, and it's simply elite. When they find their game, they just smother teams and generate far more quality chances than they give up. It's why we've had so many come from behind wins this year. When it's time to get going, we get going with the absolute best of them.

It is quite odd to see a Blues team truly banking on the strength of their goaltending. I hope we step up the intensity in February and March and make our goalies' lives a bit easier back there. Until then I'm not too concerned, though. We all know what this team is capable of.

I agree with a lot of what you’re saying, but I also feel like it’s a bit of an excuse a lot of teams use for simply not playing well. You are what your habits are, on the ice. If you are careless about defense in the season, it will haunt you later.

But I do think it’s a good time to try inexperienced players, tinker with pairings and lines, etc. The Faulk trade alone has created a lot of that.

I also was pleasantly surprised to see the total shot suppression to be so good.

 

[Stealth JD]

Petro leaving would obviously hurt club but I don’t believe it ends Cup chances. Other D would have to step up but this is still excellent club.

it would certainly help our chances if we could replace Petro with, say, a $7M/year LHD.

$7M-unicorn - Parayko
Bouw - Faulk
Dunn - Bortz

Maybe the Blues could trade for McDonagh to help Tampa's cap-situation, as they're going to need to re-sign Cirelli & Sergachev, not to mention fill in the rest of their defense behind Hedman as they've got 3 UFA d-men (Shatty, Schenn & Rutta) and 2 more RFA. The immediate concern with watching Petro leave as UFA is the notion that Parayko may follow Backes and Petro's lead and want to go home and lead the Oilers, as he's only got 2 more years beyond the current before he's UFA. If Petro walks, I think we'll all be expecting Colt to do the same as it will have become common practice by that point.

 

[LGB]

Blues are allowing the 3rd least shots against in the league. However, unlike last year they are ‘more dangerous’ scoring chances (with an expected goals per game that is more average despite the low total shot volume). Last year the xG was crazy low. It’s not clear to me why this is different. But it makes me wonder if the weight being placed on shot location to generate the expected goals numbers is somehow misleading. Maybe the straight Corsi has a bit more value than current conventional wisdom.

Or we've just been getting lucky. xG values are based on what % of shots over a certain time period (something like the last 5 regular seasons) matching certain criteria (more than just location check out the about page on MoneyPuck to learn more about their model) have been goals. xG is far superior to plain CF% in measuring chances and predicting future scoring.

Edit: If anyone does look at the about page the xG part is the second section after their game prediction model with the header "Shot Prediction Expected Goals Model"

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Or we've just been getting lucky. xG values are based on what % of shots over a certain time period (something like the last 5 regular seasons) matching certain criteria (more than just location check out the about page on MoneyPuck to learn more about their model) have been goals. xG is far superior to plain CF% in measuring chances and predicting future scoring.

Edit: If anyone does look at the about page the xG part is the second section after their game prediction model with the header "Shot Prediction Expected Goals Model"

I understand how xG works. What I’m wondering is whether the Blues’ game is showing a limitation to that weighting system. I agree, though, that it’s more likely the Blues have been lucky and that this isn’t sustainable.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I understand how xG works. What I’m wondering is whether the Blues’ game is showing a limitation to that weighting system. I agree, though, that it’s more likely the Blues have been lucky and that this isn’t sustainable.

It’s worth noting that the Bruins and Islanders have a similar phenomenon going, where xG against is a lot higher than the actual goals allowed. Maybe there’s something there statistically. Yes, I just quoted myself.

 

[simon IC]

Petro leaving would obviously hurt club but I don’t believe it ends Cup chances. Other D would have to step up but this is still excellent club.

what I don't get, is why Schenn and Faulk got contracts first.

 

[LGB]

It’s worth noting that the Bruins and Islanders have a similar phenomenon going, where xG against is a lot higher than the actual goals allowed. Maybe there’s something there statistically. Yes, I just quoted myself.

The two teams with the biggest discrepancy between xGA and actual GA at 5v5 are the Jets and Avalanche.

Edit: Actually it's the Jets and Yotes. Avalanche are third. Also would like to add I'm talking about per 60 numbers not raw totals.

 

[Blueston]

what I don't get, is why Schenn and Faulk got contracts first.

I presume it’s bc they were willing to accept deals that fit with what DA is willing to pay and Petro hasn’t yet. I have no doubt they are willing to pay Petro more annually than either of those guys so I wouldn’t frame it as club valued them more than Petro.

 

[TK 421]

what I don't get, is why Schenn and Faulk got contracts first.

That was intentional by DA who is trying to sign players prior to UFA where they're more inclined to see what is offered by the rest of the league and who's also playing a high stakes game of chicken with Petro and more specifically his Newport representation who are known for extracting max money. DA is saying, "I know who you are.....I'm Doug Armstrong and you have met your match."

Newport clients Edmundson and Fabbri were both traded to add some context. Obviously Petro is in a league of his own value wise so not all similar with the sole exception that all 3 are Newport clients.

He's also saying to Petro, "We have one hell of a team for you Alex...come closer to where we're comfortable and we can keep it that way."

 

[BlueDream]

what I don't get, is why Schenn and Faulk got contracts first.

Why are you confused by Schenn? He’s a very important player for this team.

Faulk I agree with you on, but Schenn makes sense. For all we know, maybe he was more willing to get a deal done at the time than Petro. We don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes with Army and Petro’s camp so we can’t blame this on the Blues just yet.

 

[Spear]

Why are you confused by Schenn? He’s a very important player for this team.

Faulk I agree with you on, but Schenn makes sense. For all we know, maybe he was more willing to get a deal done at the time than Petro. We don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes with Army and Petro’s camp so we can’t blame this on the Blues just yet.

From STLtoday.com

"Obviously it's really nice," Schenn said. "The organization, management and coaches have shown faith in me moving forward here obviously when they're going to do that, you want to buy in and when you see how good the team is, how good we were last year, how good we can be, I think it makes you only want to stay. Over the period of the contract, the term, the team's going to change but the one thing that doesn't is the city. It's a great city to live in, a great organization to play for, so I'm looking forward to it."

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Kyrou and Poganski both recalled the per Blues twitter.

 

[Oberyn]

I like the call ups. I hope Poganski gets into a game instead of just being a warm body for the press box. He looked good in preseason as a spark plug type player.

 

[Ranksu]

I like the call ups. I hope Poganski gets into a game instead of just being a warm body for the press box. He looked good in preseason as a spark plug type player.

Brouwer --> popcorn guy and let Poganski and Kyrou play.

 

[shpongle falls]

With Kyrou up I think he'd be a good fit with O'Rielly and Perron but I'd also like to see what he could do on a line with Thomas.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I’d like to see this, but I’m gonna assume Brouwer will be in since there would be too many kids for their liking most likely.


Schwartz-Schenn-Bozak
Barbashev-O’Reilly-Perron
Walker-Thomas-Kyrou
MacEachern-de la Rose-Poganski
Brouwer

 

[Blueston]

From Athletic article on most disappointing players in NHL this season:

5. Colton Parayko , RD, St Louis Blues
Parayko’s combination of size, strength and skating ability is unlike anything we have in the NHL. But he and the Blues have been quietly terrible at 5-on-5 for well over two months now.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

From Athletic article on most disappointing players in NHL this season:

5. Colton Parayko , RD, St Louis Blues
Parayko’s combination of size, strength and skating ability is unlike anything we have in the NHL. But he and the Blues have been quietly terrible at 5-on-5 for well over two months now.

So trade him to Detroit?

 

[MissouriMook]

So trade him to Detroit?

Yep. For Fabbri. Clearly a better player.

 

[Blueston]

So trade him to Detroit?

Funny. Just thought was interesting bc I knew stats showed him and JayBo have struggled together this year and I haven’t liked him with Petro.

 

[Jordeau]

I found a really interesting 10-minute interview/mini documentary about the Patrik Berglund situation by Chris Johnston from Sportsnet that was posted a couple weeks ago.

 

[LGB]

From Athletic article on most disappointing players in NHL this season:

5. Colton Parayko , RD, St Louis Blues
Parayko’s combination of size, strength and skating ability is unlike anything we have in the NHL. But he and the Blues have been quietly terrible at 5-on-5 for well over two months now.

Unless I'm reading it wrong that sounds ridiculous. So according to this data the Blues are allowing 9 more xGA than they are generating for when Parayko is on the ice? Feel like there must be something else I'm missing because that just makes no sense.

 

[Ranksu]

I found a really interesting 10-minute interview/mini documentary about the Patrik Berglund situation by Chris Johnston from Sportsnet that was posted a couple weeks ago.

Patrik Berglund Appreciation Thread