2019 - 2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 2: The Depth from Within

[AjaxManifesto]

Mike Rupp tried eating his shoe when the Blues won the Cup. This year he didn’t think the Blues would make the playoffs or at best be a bubble team.

Hockey analysts graduated from the same school as weather forecasters.

Roeneck and Rupp share the same brain cell.

 

[Celtic Note]

Because surgical results in your 30s aren't nearly the guarantee of improvement that they are in your 20s. That surgery was for sure a season ender and a potential career ender. I totally get putting it off as long as possible to keep trying to make one more push. I'm happy it worked out, but it was just as likely that he was going to come back limited and watch his career fizzle from the press box.

It's not like he spent years fighting that hip. His skating was very good in 2016/17 when he played 81 games and it was the injury next year that caused the need for surgery.

Did he end up with a replacement? I cannot remember.
If he did, it could be a situation where once you have that first surgery, it just becomes a series of future surgeries. I think that is the general gist of both knee and hip replacements. They have a shelf life (someone correct me if I am wrong here).

knowing something like that would certainly make me tentative.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Roeneck and Rupp share the same brain cell.

Ah man, I kind of like Roenick.

I’ll at least give Rupp credit for following through on his word and actually trying to eat his shoe. But he is still a Blues doubter. Actually, he’d probably fit right in with some of our forum regulars.

 

[Ranksu]

These last wins has been incredible good statement for players to themself and to coach Chief that our game indentity is top notch A++. Missing guys like Tarasenko, Blais, Sundqvist and Steen should in some point see negative effect to game results, but other hand our game has almost improved with new faces its just mindboggling.

I'm just damn proud of about this team, players and Chief, Army and Bill.

Still I've one scary vision that all this what we complished, Army and Bill created could be washed away if Pietrangelo leaves.

 

[542365]

God I hated the Berube hire. What a f***ing idiot I am.

 

[Mike Liut]

God I hated the Berube hire. What a ****ing idiot I am.

I loved the Berube hire. I liked him from the beginning. But, I absolutely hated the Perron signing. That makes me an equal idiot. DP sure proved me wrong.

 

[BlueDream]

I didn’t mind hiring Berube as an assistant coach after the solid job he did with the Chicago Wolves. But when Yeo was fired, never did I think Berube would turn out to be this good. He’s a fantastic coach for this roster.

I wonder what Flyers fans think. They were trying to convince us he was no good.

And even though Berube has exceeded my expectations, I still took the opinions of Philly fans with a grain of salt. He really didn’t do bad there and they haven’t been any better without him obviously.

 

[Note Worthy]

I didn’t mind hiring Berube as an assistant coach after the solid job he did with the Chicago Wolves. But when Yeo was fired, never did I think Berube would turn out to be this good. He’s a fantastic coach for this roster.

I wonder what Flyers fans think. They were trying to convince us he was no good.

And even though Berube has exceeded my expectations, I still took the opinions of Philly fans with a grain of salt. He really didn’t do bad there and they haven’t been any better without him obviously.

Agreed. He actually did decent in Philly especially compared to what they've done since he left.

 

[Renard]

That play by Parayko's, catching up with Kane and knocking the puck from his stick. Wow!

 

[bleedblue1223]

I loved the Berube hire. I liked him from the beginning. But, I absolutely hated the Perron signing. That makes me an equal idiot. DP sure proved me wrong.

Yeah, I remember this board when Perron was announced, myself included. Glad to eat crow on that one.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

That play by Parayko's, catching up with Kane and knocking the puck from his stick. Wow!

No soup for you!

 

[542365]

I loved the Berube hire. I liked him from the beginning. But, I absolutely hated the Perron signing. That makes me an equal idiot. DP sure proved me wrong.

I’m the opposite. I liked the Perron signing right away. Definitely didn’t see him putting up these numbers or being this important, though. Thought we signed a good secondary scorer at a reasonable rate. He’s turned into an absolute bargain.

 

[Brockon]

I loved the Berube hire. I liked him from the beginning. But, I absolutely hated the Perron signing. That makes me an equal idiot. DP sure proved me wrong.

I was a fan of the value for the Perron contract - however I too greatly underestimated just how impactful he would be. I was expecting a 40-50 point middle 6 winger, not our leading scorer for that price.

 

[TK 421]

True story. When the Blues signed Perron and Bozak I was thinking, "Ffs that's not nearly enough! I want ROR right f***ing now!"

So I logged off the internet entirely and called it an early night as well. Next morning I wake up to 'ROR traded to STL'. Immediate elation and I didn't think I could be any happier and then I saw the return and started giggling. I still haven't stopped.

Once ROR was here I was happy to have Perron. I had mistakenly presumed that the Bozak and Perron signings meant the Blues were done adding. Little did I know one of the biggest trades in Blues history was about to go down.

 

[Majorityof1]

True story. When the Blues signed Perron and Bozak I was thinking, "Ffs that's not nearly enough! I want ROR right ****ing now!"

So I logged off the internet entirely and called it an early night as well. Next morning I wake up to 'ROR traded to STL'. Immediate elation and I didn't think I could be any happier and then I saw the return and started giggling. I still haven't stopped.

Once ROR was here I was happy to have Perron. I had mistakenly presumed that the Bozak and Perron signings meant the Blues were done adding. Little did I know one of the biggest trades in Blues history was about to go down.

I think that was most people's disappointment. You'd have to be pretty low on Perron to not to like adding him in a $4M contract. Given that we were all expecting/hoping for Tavares, ROR or some other elite level player, there was a sense of disappointment that we couldn't pull off the home run move. Of course, we did shortly after, and the rest, as they say, is history.

 

[Blueston]

True story. When the Blues signed Perron and Bozak I was thinking, "Ffs that's not nearly enough! I want ROR right ****ing now!"

So I logged off the internet entirely and called it an early night as well. Next morning I wake up to 'ROR traded to STL'. Immediate elation and I didn't think I could be any happier and then I saw the return and started giggling. I still haven't stopped.

Once ROR was here I was happy to have Perron. I had mistakenly presumed that the Bozak and Perron signings meant the Blues were done adding. Little did I know one of the biggest trades in Blues history was about to go down.

I was pleased with the adds that day but also disappointed no ROR. Wife and I went to Willie Nelson concert festival that evening. I checked my phone between acts and saw we had dealt for ROR. News of the trade was way better than Whiskey River!

 

[bleedblue1223]

Yeah, as soon as ROR was announced, it's like ok, instead of adding 2 middle 6 players, we essentially added an entire 2nd line to the team. With the chemistry of Perron and ROR, we essentially added a 1st line. Perron is on a great deal, and ROR is on a fair deal with the added benefit of dropping some salary dumps.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

I think that was most people's disappointment. You'd have to be pretty low on Perron to not to like adding him in a $4M contract. Given that we were all expecting/hoping for Tavares, ROR or some other elite level player, there was a sense of disappointment that we couldn't pull off the home run move. Of course, we did shortly after, and the rest, as they say, is history.

For myself, it wasn't the disappointment of having Perron instead of Tavares, but rather anger that the Blues might go into next season not building on the foundation they had developed.

I was pissed thinking that the Blues might go into that year with no additions besides filling in for a worse Stastny and a top-six fill-in winger. It just seemed like the following year would be a complete waste of Tarasenko, Pietrangelo, Schenn, Schwartz, and Parayko's time in a Blue note. They desperately needed more talent at forward and to think Bozak and Perron were the answers just made me angry.

Thank God Buffalo decided to do the Blues a solid.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

The longer this whole Petro thing drags on, the more pessimistic I become about him returning. And I just don’t get it. If you’re willing to go 8 years on Schenn, why would you not on Petro? If you want to compete to for a Cup you need him.

 

[bleedblue1223]

The longer this whole Petro thing drags on, the more pessimistic I become about him returning. And I just don’t get it. If you’re willing to go 8 years on Schenn, why would you not on Petro? If you want to compete to for a Cup you need him.

I'm starting to think that either Petro wants to test the market, Petro wants to see if he gets serious Norris consideration, which means more money, or we are reluctant to get to a certain number.

 

[TK 421]

There's a distinct possibility that both sides intend to get the extension done but will wait till the offseason to do it. Not what we as fans want but it could be the case. No way does Army trade him.

 

[Note Worthy]

I'll say again, Armstrong knows that if we lose Pietrangelo our Cup window essentially closes immediately. I don't think there's anyway he allows that. He'll make other moves if necessary to get Pietrangelo signed. It may not be until the off-season but I'm very confident it will happen.

 

[Stealth JD]

The longer this whole Petro thing drags on, the more pessimistic I become about him returning. And I just don’t get it. If you’re willing to go 8 years on Schenn, why would you not on Petro? If you want to compete to for a Cup you need him.

Schenn was willing to take lower AAV in exchange for longer-term. Why should Pietrangelo need to do that? He's getting his money regardless. Why wouldn't he prefer to earn $80M over 7-years instead of 8-years? He'd essentially be working a year for free by taking a discount to stay.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Great article by Tierney today in the Athletic contrasting the Blues defensive performance last season and so far this year. Great deep dive into some underlying stats with well explained charts. A few points that stood out:

- Blues are allowing the 3rd least shots against in the league. However, unlike last year they are ‘more dangerous’ scoring chances (with an expected goals per game that is more average despite the low total shot volume). Last year the xG was crazy low. It’s not clear to me why this is different. But it makes me wonder if the weight being placed on shot location to generate the expected goals numbers is somehow misleading. Maybe the straight Corsi has a bit more value than current conventional wisdom.

- Intuitively, if the shot quality is tougher, you can conclude correctly that the goaltending is above average. One way this is expressed is Goals Saved above average per 60 minutes. Binnington is solid at close to 0.2. But Allen so far this season is near the best on the chart at 0.6 per 60. If you lumped Allen’s stats in with all the NHL starters, he’d be 7th best in the league. I realized he’d been playing better, but not that much.

- GMs around the league will be highly aware of this. Despite the narrative around here that it will require adding assets to move Allen, the reality is that he’s turned into a plus value asset. He’s the perfect platoon goalie: a guy who costs less than most starters, on a short term deal, with significant starting (and playoff) experience. I see no reason the Blues move him in season, but they will be able to easily find a match in the off-season.

- Finally, I wondered if the xG discrepancy should concern us more about this team’s post-season outlook. For me, I think they aren’t playing at post-season intensity like they did for the 2nd hard last year. I also think working in Faulk has led to some vulnerabilities that should improve (and have been improving). But it’s pretty crazy that the Blues have turned into a team that is carried by the strength of its goaltending much of the time, earning points that average goaltending would not provide.

 

[Celtic Note]

Great article by Tierney today in the Athletic contrasting the Blues defensive performance last season and so far this year. Great deep dive into some underlying stats with well explained charts. A few points that stood out:

- Blues are allowing the 3rd least shots against in the league. However, unlike last year they are ‘more dangerous’ scoring chances (with an expected goals per game that is more average despite the low total shot volume). Last year the xG was crazy low. It’s not clear to me why this is different. But it makes me wonder if the weight being placed on shot location to generate the expected goals numbers is somehow misleading. Maybe the straight Corsi has a bit more value than current conventional wisdom.

- Intuitively, if the shot quality is tougher, you can conclude correctly that the goaltending is above average. One way this is expressed is Goals Saved above average per 60 minutes. Binnington is solid at close to 0.2. But Allen so far this season is near the best on the chart at 0.6 per 60. If you lumped Allen’s stats in with all the NHL starters, he’d be 7th best in the league. I realized he’d been playing better, but not that much.

- GMs around the league will be highly aware of this. Despite the narrative around here that it will require adding assets to move Allen, the reality is that he’s turned into a plus value asset. He’s the perfect platoon goalie: a guy who costs less than most starters, on a short term deal, with significant starting (and playoff) experience. I see no reason the Blues move him in season, but they will be able to easily find a match in the off-season.

- Finally, I wondered if the xG discrepancy should concern us more about this team’s post-season outlook. For me, I think they aren’t playing at post-season intensity like they did for the 2nd hard last year. I also think working in Faulk has led to some vulnerabilities that should improve (and have been improving). But it’s pretty crazy that the Blues have turned into a team that is carried by the strength of its goaltending much of the time, earning points that average goaltending would not provide.

I read it too. I was a great article. It also validated what we are seeing on the ice.