2019 - 2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 2: The Depth from Within

[Stealth JD]

Tierney with an excellent piece about Thomas:

Moving to the middle: Blues' Robert Thomas poised to seize...

(also shows the good-things Sanford does which largely go overlooked by this forum)

 

[Brian39]

Double post to talk about some developments caused by these injuries.

1. Cap flexibility is neat. Losing Tarasenko creates a hell of a hole, but having $7 mil to play with mid season makes things interesting if you can somewhat fill that hole internally. Which brings me to the next point.

2. Tyler Bozak. He certainly doesn't look out of place as a top 6 winger. Over the summer a lot of us weren't sure how he would transition to wing if/when called upon to do so. It is a small sample size, but he fits in really well with the style Schwartz-Schenn play. I can't believe that line didn't score last night, but that is the 2nd straight game where they have squarely controlled the possession going against a talented line. Obviously he isn't going to replace Tarasenko's offensive output, but I think we found a RW to keep that line playing like a solid top line. And creates an opportunity down the lineup...

3. Robert freaking Thomas. He certainly appears to be seizing the opportunity to play center in the NHL. I hope we never see him on the wing again. he obviously isn't going to have a playmaker every night, but honestly the 4 points in 2 games doesn't tell the whole story. He is clearly more comfortable in the center role, he is playing well off the puck and just looks like a gamebreaker out there. Expecting this to be his everyday level from here on out is too much to ask, but I think we are witnessing him take the next step.

4. Blais' next contract. It sucks for him, but this injury is going to cost him some decent money. He was on pace for 30+ points even with over half his games being in a 3rd line role. He had earned his way back up to the 2nd line and had a chance to push his point total closer to 40 than 30. He has arbitration rights, so he was looking at a nice little bridge deal with a 30+ point season. This injury is probably going to cost him over a million dollars and potentially more depending on what the lineup looks like when he returns. Absolutely brutal luck for him. But from a business standpoint, it helps the Blues cap situation next year. Blais could have been a cap casualty depending on his raise, but now we should be able to neatly fit him in the lineup next year.

5. Sunny has proven without a shadow of a doubt that he is worth the extension. I was totally comfortable paying him $2.75 mil for what he does while playing a 4th line role and his performance when asked to slide up the lineup is just a bonus. Having a guy like that is what makes a team truly have depth. Having NHL ready 13th and 14th forwards is nice, but having a 4th liner who can step in and be an above average middle 6er when needed is significantly more important. What a trade and what a contract.

 

[Renard]

I listened to Drew Bannister's interview on 101.1 FM today. Former Blue Jamie Rivers was asking the questions.

Bannister's comments about Kostin didn't tell us anything we didn't already know.

He said that Kyrou is not presently in NHL game shape. And he hasn't shaken off all the rust from his long layoff from hockey.

He said that Walker has been the team's best forward, he plays a fast and hard hitting game and is very good around the net. He is also responsible defensively.

This could/should all be the minor league thread, but I wasn't sure everyone would see it there. And there is a lot of interest in who could be brought up to help deal with our injuries.

 

[BlueDream]

Tierney with an excellent piece about Thomas:

Moving to the middle: Blues' Robert Thomas poised to seize...

(also shows the good-things Sanford does which largely go overlooked by this forum)

Oh boy. Sanford one of the best on the team at zone exits? This forum isn’t gonna like that!

I’ll admit that surprised me as well. But this just goes to show the ridiculousness of crowd behavior. Every player is going to turn it over and make mistakes, including Sanford. But when there’s a target on his back, people are going to point out every. single. time. that it happens to him. Where as they won’t do that with others.

This also shows how Fabbri was struggling. But we already knew that.

One other thing of note is that I’ve been impressed with Sanford’s PK’ing lately too.

 

[Stealth JD]

I'm operating under the assumption that Tarasenko is not returning before rosters expand, which should be a given.

Even with a trade AND one of Kostin/Kyrou sticking on the roster, you only have to waive DLR and Brouwer to get to a 23 man roster when everyone besides Tarasenko is healthy. We should not reconsider an improvement to the top 9 over concerns about waiving either of those guys. Those two are the definition of expendable forwards and losing either to waivers shouldn't be any cause for concern.

Realistically, Kostin is pretty clearly not going to stick. Right or wrong, Berube doesn't trust him beyond a 4th line role and barely trusts him in that role in a close game. I think Yappi is dead on in his assessment and frankly I think Berube's stance on Kostin at the moment is fair. I've liked what I have seen from him so far, but I also haven't seen anything to indicate he absolutely needs to be playing in the middle 6. I think he played well in a bottom 6 role last night and is absolutely better suited for that role than Kyrou would be. I'd leave him up here for a few more games in the same role. Get him a few weeks of practices, a couple big NHL paychecks and send him back to the AHL with a list of things to work on.

And then you call up Kyrou and plug him into the middle 6.

But none of that causes me to stop looking for a trade. For the sake of argument (and knowing Berube's affinity for Sanford) lets say we are married to that Sanford-Thomas pair on the 3rd line moving forward.

Schwartz-Schenn-Bozak
?????-ROR-Perron
Sanford-Thomas-?????
?????-?????-?????

Kyrou, Barby, Sunny, Steen, Mac, DLR, Brouwer are the options to fill in those ????? lineup spots. I want Kyrou on the 2nd or 3rd line and I want Barby-Sunny-Steen as the 4th line. That leaves a hole in the middle 6 that I don't want filled by Mac, DLR or Brouwer. So go out and get an acquisition to fill the hole, waive whichever of DLR/Brouwer you like the least.

Schwartz-Schenn-Bozak
New Guy/Kyrou-ROR-Perron
Sanford-Thomas-Kyrou/New Guy
Barby-Sunny-Steen (AKA the best 4th line in hockey)

Assuming that new guy is a 40+ point player and Kyrou is a competent middle 6 skill player, that is the deepest forward group in hockey while also having a pretty damn legit top 6. It leads to a tough decision when Blais returns if everyone stays healthy (lol), but that is a great problem to have.

But if the Blues continue to chug along to the tune of highest-winning percentage in the West, do they really need to spend assets on a rental? And if the guy they bring in isn't a rental, how does that impact the cap-structure? I'd love to see Army fine-tune the roster and solidify it while Blais and Tarasenko are out, but this seems like a great spot to let your depth shine, and until the Petro situation is resolved, I'm only interested in a short-term rental (which have historically proven to be foolish ventures), like Ray Bourque was for the Avs...perhaps a guy like Hall or Pageau who can act as a hired-gun for one year while we take advantage of the LTIR-Salary Cap loophole for the playoffs.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Oh boy. Sanford one of the best on the team at zone exits? This forum isn’t gonna like that!

I’ll admit that surprised me as well. But this just goes to show the ridiculousness of crowd behavior. Every player is going to turn it over and make mistakes, including Sanford. But when there’s a target on his back, people are going to point out every. single. time. that it happens to him. Where as they won’t do that with others.

This also shows how Fabbri was struggling. But we already knew that.

One other thing of note is that I’ve been impressed with Sanford’s PK’ing lately too.

It's an interesting chart, but not as unsurprising when looking at the colors of the graphs. Thomas enters the zone a lot, but he turns it over quite a bit when he does, baring the last two games of course. It ends up being the opposite of what Fabbri would do, i.e. enter the zone more successfully, just with not as much regularity. I'm sure the success rate will normalize and Thomas will be fine, but it is a funny thing to note that players like Thomas will enter the zone so frequently, yet the success rate is low. It does coincide with what fans have been saying about him this year for the most part.

 

[Dbrownss]

Oh boy. Sanford one of the best on the team at zone exits? This forum isn’t gonna like that!

I’ll admit that surprised me as well. But this just goes to show the ridiculousness of crowd behavior. Every player is going to turn it over and make mistakes, including Sanford. But when there’s a target on his back, people are going to point out every. single. time. that it happens to him. Where as they won’t do that with others.

This also shows how Fabbri was struggling. But we already knew that.

One other thing of note is that I’ve been impressed with Sanford’s PK’ing lately too.

So we're going to gloss over how he's terrible at entries while Fabbri wasn't? I'd bet someone who's really good at analytics could point out some missing context too.

 

[tkenney65]

Tierney with an excellent piece about Thomas:

Moving to the middle: Blues' Robert Thomas poised to seize...

(also shows the good-things Sanford does which largely go overlooked by this forum)

Stealth.....thanks for the link. Great article!

 

[tkenney65]

Oh boy. Sanford one of the best on the team at zone exits? This forum isn’t gonna like that!

I’ll admit that surprised me as well. But this just goes to show the ridiculousness of crowd behavior. Every player is going to turn it over and make mistakes, including Sanford. But when there’s a target on his back, people are going to point out every. single. time. that it happens to him. Where as they won’t do that with others.

This also shows how Fabbri was struggling. But we already knew that.

One other thing of note is that I’ve been impressed with Sanford’s PK’ing lately too.

This has been my stance regarding Sanford all along...

 

[Brian39]

But if the Blues continue to chug along to the tune of highest-winning percentage in the West, do they really need to spend assets on a rental? And if the guy they bring in isn't a rental, how does that impact the cap-structure? I'd love to see Army fine-tune the roster and solidify it while Blais and Tarasenko are out, but this seems like a great spot to let your depth shine, and until the Petro situation is resolved, I'm only interested in a short-term rental (which have historically proven to be foolish ventures), like Ray Bourque was for the Avs...perhaps a guy like Hall or Pageau who can act as a hired-gun for one year while we take advantage of the LTIR-Salary Cap loophole for the playoffs.

To be clear, I am only talking about a rental. I don't want to take on any additional salary for 2020/21.

I think my feeling is that they can't/won't continue to chug along because another injury is coming. Going 10+ weeks without a 2+ week long forward injury is incredibly unlikely and an injury to any of 7 forwards creates a big hole. Additionally, the ROR-Perron line is struggling at 5 on 5. Perron is a -3 with 1 point at 5 on 5 in the month of November. ROR is -2 with 2 points at 5 on 5 this month. I don't think we can keep chugging along without them getting help and I think that taking a guy from another line to provide that help causes issues on that line. Maybe Kyrou is the answer, but then we are still left with a noticeably weaker 4th line that reduces our ability to manage the minutes of our top 9. Our underlying numbers aren't as good as our record indicates, which hasn't concerned me much this year because I'm convinced that this team knows how to flip the switch when needed and has the talent to win games with 25 minute efforts. In my eyes, we are dangerously close to (and potentially already at) the point where we aren't talented enough to keep winning on 25 minute efforts.

My stance comes from my opinion that we are nearing a point where the wheels could fall off and I would rather address it before it happens instead of after. I'm not saying overpay for a guy, but aggressively explore the market for a good deal on a middle 6 guy and pull the trigger if you find it. I'm comfortable giving up a medium value asset in that type of deal instead of taking the risk that another injury means that you have to make a trade or watch the team go on a big skid. Last night's game is definitely reason for optimism, but I don't know how much to take away from beating up on a team that has been just terrible for the last 3 weeks. They've allowed 3+ goals in 6 straight games, are 5th worst in goals allowed and have the 4th worst goal differential in the league.

 

[Stealth JD]

Next 8 games are a tough stretch:
v. Nashville
@ Nashville
@ Tampa
@ Dallas
v. Pittsburgh
@ Chicago
@ Pittsburgh
v. Toronto

Look to be catching the Preds (slump) and Pens (Crosby-injury) at fortunate periods. Hopefully they can put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division so that they can keep guys fresh down the stretch.

 

[BlueDream]

So we're going to gloss over how he's terrible at entries while Fabbri wasn't? I'd bet someone who's really good at analytics could point out some missing context too.

I’m definitely not glossing over it. He still has flaws like anyone else.

But look at how many people struggle with entries. It’s not just him. Thomas, Tarasenko, lots of good players.

So to me that’s not as noteworthy as him being one of the few in blue for zone exits.

Regardless, he gets enough crap. Why can we not say positive stuff about him without the party constantly being crashed? As others have said, it does get old.

 

[Dbrownss]

I’m definitely not glossing over it. He still has flaws like anyone else.

But look at how many people struggle with entries. It’s not just him. Thomas, Tarasenko, lots of good players.

So to me that’s not as noteworthy as him being one of the few in blue for zone exits.

Regardless, he gets enough crap. Why can we not say positive stuff about him without the party constantly being crashed? As others have said, it does get old.

I'd say Zone exits depends on the breakout. It may be more subjective then an entry which is more direct. If Sanford is standing 2ft from the Blue line and let's say Petro dipsy doodles his way around 2 forcheckers and passes it to Sanford who takes 2 steps...
Is that Sanfords zone exit?

People were rightfully miffed at Sanfords usage.

As I said somewhere else, Sanford was good in the ducks game, good in the tampa game and flat out amazing last night. He wasn't a passenger at all. He was just really good. I dont need to cherry pick stuff to try and make a case for him. If he's playing great and makes a few mistakes....whatever. similar to Perron, the good outweighs the bad. But Sanford being fed 2nd line minutes and all he contributes is zone exits.....c'mon....

If he was on the 3rd line this whole time, I'd bet the Sanford hate would have been more muted

 

[BlueDream]

I'd say Zone exits depends on the breakout. It may be more subjective then an entry which is more direct. If Sanford is standing 2ft from the Blue line and let's say Petro dipsy doodles his way around 2 forcheckers and passes it to Sanford who takes 2 steps...
Is that Sanfords zone exit?

People were rightfully miffed at Sanfords usage.

As I said somewhere else, Sanford was good in the ducks game, good in the tampa game and flat out amazing last night. He wasn't a passenger at all. He was just really good. I dont need to cherry pick stuff to try and make a case for him. If he's playing great and makes a few mistakes....whatever. similar to Perron, the good outweighs the bad. But Sanford being fed 2nd line minutes and all he contributes is zone exits.....c'mon....

If he was on the 3rd line this whole time, I'd bet the Sanford hate would have been more muted

I guess but to me, him being on the 2nd line has more to do with spreading the wealth than the Blues actually thinking he’s a 2nd line player. He had chemistry with ROR and Perron last year. Not so much this year, but O’Reilly and Perron are good enough players to carry anyone so it doesn’t really matter that much.

It’s not like he’s getting the same amount of ice time as those 2. So yeah I agree he’s much better on the 3rd line and it’s really nice when he gets hot and plays like this. Wish that could happen more often, but it is what it is and the lines generally haven’t bothered me much this year.

 

[Dbrownss]

I guess but to me, him being on the 2nd line has more to do with spreading the wealth than the Blues actually thinking he’s a 2nd line player. He had chemistry with ROR and Perron last year. Not so much this year, but O’Reilly and Perron are good enough players to carry anyone so it doesn’t really matter that much.

It’s not like he’s getting the same amount of ice time as those 2. So yeah I agree he’s much better on the 3rd line and it’s really nice when he gets hot and plays like this. Wish that could happen more often, but it is what it is and the lines generally haven’t bothered me much this year.

I'm too lazy to go game to game but I'd bet ES TOI was the same, PK/PP time makes up the rest.

Moving on though. If Sanford can provide 50% of what he's been doing. I doubt there will be any complaining.

 

[Renard]

I looked at the official stats from the recent Calgary game. The Blues forwards as a group had only five hits, and three of them belonged to de la Rose.

I guess we really didn't need the hits. But it's another area in which Blais will be missed.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

I looked at the official stats from the recent Calgary game. The Blues forwards as a group had only five hits, and three of them belonged to de la Rose.

I guess we really didn't need the hits. But it's another area in which Blais will be missed.

Oh there were some hits, that little black thing hitting the back of the net.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Great posts once again, @Brian39

Thank you for your contributions.

 

[LGB]

Binnington 2nd in the NHL in save percentage above expected per MoneyPuck.

 

[Robb_K]

The Blues look tired. They don't seem to have much strength in their passes and clears, and several of their shots, and they're losing many of the races to the puck, and battles for the puck. Giving up that late goal hurts badly. Why did Bouwmeester notice The Pred just to his left, who was in perfect position to just tap in the rebound? I thought if he would have been aware, he could have gotten his stick on it, and knocked it out of the crease. I'll have to look at the slo-mo of that goal.

Not a good 1st Period, at all.

 

[Majorityof1]

I'm a little worried about Binnington's workload. He has been great, but he has played a ton of hockey over the last calendar year. He has never played more than 62 games in a season including playoffs before last year, and only came close the once. With the AHL, NHL and playoffs, he played 74 last year. He is on pace for 65 this year in the regular season alone. That is a huge workload for a well rested goalie, much less one coming off the shortened season. Also Blues are giving up way more shots than usual, so they are tiring games as well lately.

I know nobody wants to see Allen play, but we need someone to take games.

 

[Mike Liut]

Thomas, Kostin and Sanford are going to be key players on this quest to repeat. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see Kyrou late January or February

 

[Itsnotatrap]

I'm a little worried about Binnington's workload. He has been great, but he has played a ton of hockey over the last calendar year. He has never played more than 62 games in a season including playoffs before last year, and only came close the once. With the AHL, NHL and playoffs, he played 74 last year. He is on pace for 65 this year in the regular season alone. That is a huge workload for a well rested goalie, much less one coming off the shortened season. Also Blues are giving up way more shots than usual, so they are tiring games as well lately.

I know nobody wants to see Allen play, but we need someone to take games.

I agree, but not on Monday. Maybe Weds and Sat for Allen, though.

 

[Majorityof1]

I agree, but not on Monday. Maybe Weds and Sat for Allen, though.

I wasn't really advocating a specific game, more just shorten the rotation. Play Allen every 4th game on avergae, instead of every 5th. You can pick and choose which games make the most sense for Allen. Just get Binnington more rest.

 

[Ranksu]

Husso?