Speculation: 2019-2020 Sharks Roster Discussion Part 11 - Post TDL

[TheWayToRefJose]

Hoping we take a flyer on Julius Nattinen. He centered LaBanc in his last year in the OHL when Labanc had 127 points.

 

[Barrie22]

Eventually things hit a ceiling. Regardless, there has been a $10 mil increase in 5 years. Average of $2 mil per season. Add in the COVID stuff putting a big hurt on the total revenue dollars in the system (that won't be recovered) and I am not sure where the huge spike comes from. Seattle in theory should help that increase like Vegas did, but that uptick is likely going to be negated by the downturn in total ticket revenues from capacity restrictions and the high likelihood of a shortened 2020-21 season (on top of the lost revenues of the 2019-20 season). So overall net neutral.

Said another way, everything has gone perfectly for the league pretty much for the past 5-8 years in terms of lots of large market teams being relevant as well as new emerging markets (Nashville/Vegas) making Cup Finals as well. If there is a league that needs consistent exposure to gain relevance, it is the NHL. See how poorly the league did when it went away for an entire season during the lockout and how long that took back (2010 Olympics finally made hockey semi-popular again for the casual fan). The likely best case scenario is that we see an increase of ~$5 million by the 2023 season imo.

The lost revenue from this season will have 0 affect on the cap going forward.

The cap is not set by the season being played. It is based on the estimated revenue from the season to be played.

 

[DeepBlueSea408]

Hoping we take a flyer on Julius Nattinen. He centered LaBanc in his last year in the OHL when Labanc had 127 points.

Wow! Definitely didnt know that. Cmon DW make the call!

 

[STL Shark]

The lost revenue from this season will have 0 affect on the cap going forward.

The cap is not set by the season being played. It is based on the estimated revenue from the season to be played.

They're not just going to say "Oh hey we overspent this year on salaries because we did not expect a pandemic to cancel 25% of the season and a loss of a significant portion of our revenues as a league. Go ahead and bump it up some more next year and we will just eat the loss and not even bother try and recoup it over the next few years."

Between lost dollars this year and decreases in attendance and games that are likely to happen next year, the cap is going to remain relatively stagnant for awhile. Maybe with the new TV deal in 3 seasons it will get a significant bump, but making any decisions with the assumption of a substantial cap increase following this season is an unforgivable/ignorant mistake and frankly unacceptable to use as an excuse if/when cap issues arise.

 

[Barrie22]

They're not just going to say "Oh hey we overspent this year on salaries because we did not expect a pandemic to cancel 25% of the season and a loss of a significant portion of our revenues as a league. Go ahead and bump it up some more next year and we will just eat the loss and not even bother try and recoup it over the next few years."

Between lost dollars this year and decreases in attendance and games that are likely to happen next year, the cap is going to remain relatively stagnant for awhile. Maybe with the new TV deal in 3 seasons it will get a significant bump, but making any decisions with the assumption of a substantial cap increase following this season is an unforgivable/ignorant mistake and frankly unacceptable to use as an excuse if/when cap issues arise.

This season as of right now is the only issue with the cap and it means nothing for future seasons.

If this all clears up by october/november which it could the way countty's are opening up. Then next years cap can either stay the same or even be bumped up a little bit.

And about this year and salaries that has already been dealt with between the nhl and nhlpa with the players taking a paycut for the remainder of the old cancelled season.

At the very worst next season will be at the same cap as this year. And then going forward it will continue to rise like normal.

 

[WTFetus]

The lost revenue from this season will have 0 affect on the cap going forward.

The cap is not set by the season being played. It is based on the estimated revenue from the season to be played.

That's not true at all and makes 0 sense if you think about it from a business perspective. The salary cap is based on the revenue of the previous season.

Per capfriendly and other websites:
The Upper Limit is the maximum amount of money that a team can spend on player salaries in accordance with the CBA. This number varies annually, and is commonly dependent upon the revenue accumulated by the NHL in previous seasons

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Eventually things hit a ceiling. Regardless, there has been a $10 mil increase in 5 years. Average of $2 mil per season. Add in the COVID stuff putting a big hurt on the total revenue dollars in the system (that won't be recovered) and I am not sure where the huge spike comes from. Seattle in theory should help that increase like Vegas did, but that uptick is likely going to be negated by the downturn in total ticket revenues from capacity restrictions and the high likelihood of a shortened 2020-21 season (on top of the lost revenues of the 2019-20 season). So overall net neutral.

Said another way, everything has gone perfectly for the league pretty much for the past 5-8 years in terms of lots of large market teams being relevant as well as new emerging markets (Nashville/Vegas) making Cup Finals as well. If there is a league that needs consistent exposure to gain relevance, it is the NHL. See how poorly the league did when it went away for an entire season during the lockout and how long that took back (2010 Olympics finally made hockey semi-popular again for the casual fan). The likely best case scenario is that we see an increase of ~$5 million by the 2023 season imo.

Over the next 5 years they should see an increase of around 8mil. No, there is no ceiling, at least not yet. They aren't even close. but 8mil increase in the cap over the next 5 years is the equivalent to Couture or Burns contract. Sharks will be fine. They don't need cheap talent in the future more than than need NHL level talent next season. They need to make the playoffs so they can make that extra playoff money also.

That's not true at all and makes 0 sense if you think about it from a business perspective. The salary cap is based on the revenue of the previous season.

Per capfriendly and other websites:
The Upper Limit is the maximum amount of money that a team can spend on player salaries in accordance with the CBA. This number varies annually, and is commonly dependent upon the revenue accumulated by the NHL in previous seasons

Next seasons cap is going to be problematic obviously but assuming we get a vaccine, I think attendance will see a huge spike. People are going to want to get out. Do the things they've been putting off. Celebrate with entertainment and experiences. Like going to sporting events.

 

[Patty Ice]

Assume the are speculating on ways to make Eichel happy with the direction of the team. So trying to add a core around him, not trade him.

7th overall is not enough value for Hertl, IMO. If they were to throw in Cozens (a recent 7th overall, 6'3" center doing well in WHL) it would probably be enough overpay to get my attention (we would likely need to add our late 1st and a B prospect like Gambrell).

The article mentioned both Hertl and Labanc. Those two for Buff's 1st and Cozens (maybe a small add) would be a deal both fanbases would entertain.

 

[themelkman]

The article mentioned both Hertl and Labanc. Those two for Buff's 1st and Cozens (maybe a small add) would be a deal both fanbases would entertain.

If the sharks fully committed to a rebuild yes.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

The article mentioned both Hertl and Labanc. Those two for Buff's 1st and Cozens (maybe a small add) would be a deal both fanbases would entertain.

There is literally no chance that happens.

 

[Mafoofoo]

If the sharks fully committed to a rebuild yes.

It'd be hard to rebuild with Couture, EK9, EK65, Burns, Vlasic and Jones contracts still on the books and fairly fresh.

 

[Nolan11]

The article mentioned both Hertl and Labanc. Those two for Buff's 1st and Cozens (maybe a small add) would be a deal both fanbases would entertain.

I debated the hertl and LaBanc for cozens and 7oa myself. It would help the sabres for sure (short term). For us, it depends on what we do with the extra 10 million in cap room (4.3 ish for LaBanc?). Long term, it would go along ways to retooling on the fly. Be interesting deal. You interested in posting it on main boards?

 

[Patty Ice]

There is literally no chance that happens.

That is true with 99% of all proposals thrown around on the internet

 

[Patty Ice]

You interested in posting it on main boards?

I'm interested in watching you get your head bit off in that cancerous part of the board .

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

That is true with 99% of all proposals thrown around on the internet

Some are more realistic than others. That one makes no sense from the Sharks perspective. Might as well suggest the Sharks trade Meier for Kucherov.

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

I debated the hertl and LaBanc for cozens and 7oa myself. It would help the sabres for sure (short term). For us, it depends on what we do with the extra 10 million in cap room (4.3 ish for LaBanc?). Long term, it would go along ways to retooling on the fly. Be interesting deal. You interested in posting it on main boards?

It's a fair deal in a nutshell, but kind of goes against us competing next year. It opens up a lot of doors though. I'd personally be more interested in trading Cooch and Labanc, however.

Highly unlikely any of this happens, but it would improve us now and in the future. Between Cozens, 7th OA, TBL 1st, and 34th OA, we'd restock the cupboard pretty fast and probably have about as competitive of a team as realistically possible next season.

Trades

Sorenson to anywhere for a bag of pucks
SJ/BUF

Cooch + Labanc for Cozens + 7OA

SJ/CHI
Sasha Chemelevski + Colorado 2nd + whatever else needed for Dylan Strome
​

Signings

Jumbo for 750K
Patty for 750K
Dadonov for 7.5 x 4
Toffoli for 5.5 x 5
Heed for 1 x 1
Strome for 4 x 2
Khudobin for 3 x 2
​

We'd be 75K under a flat 81.5 cap with 20 skaters

Dadanov - Hertl - Timo
Kane - Strome - Toffoli
Patty - Jumbo - Cozens(Or whoever)
Gambrell - Handemark - Gregor
True

Vlasic - Karlsson
Simek - Burns
Ferraro - Heed

Jones
Khudobin

2020 Picks:
7 OA
TBL 1st
34 OA
Pitt 3rd
Ott 5th
SJ 5th
Pitt 7th
Wash 7th

 

[Coily]

Kind of done with Marleau and Thornton, to be honest.

 

[themelkman]

Kind of done with Marleau and Thornton, to be honest.

Marleau I agree it’s probably best to give the kids a shot again before bringing him back, but Jumbo I see zero replacement for in our ORG. No one is ready for the third line center position.

 

[WSS11]

It's a fair deal in a nutshell, but kind of goes against us competing next year. It opens up a lot of doors though. I'd personally be more interested in trading Cooch and Labanc, however.

Highly unlikely any of this happens, but it would improve us now and in the future. Between Cozens, 7th OA, TBL 1st, and 34th OA, we'd restock the cupboard pretty fast and probably have about as competitive of a team as realistically possible next season.

Trades

Sorenson to anywhere for a bag of pucks
SJ/BUF

Cooch + Labanc for Cozens + 7OA

SJ/CHI
Sasha Chemelevski + Colorado 2nd + whatever else needed for Dylan Strome
​

Signings

Jumbo for 750K
Patty for 750K
Dadonov for 7.5 x 4
Toffoli for 5.5 x 5
Heed for 1 x 1
Strome for 4 x 2
Khudobin for 3 x 2
​

We'd be 75K under a flat 81.5 cap with 20 skaters

Dadanov - Hertl - Timo
Kane - Strome - Toffoli
Patty - Jumbo - Cozens(Or whoever)
Gambrell - Handemark - Gregor
True

Vlasic - Karlsson
Simek - Burns
Ferraro - Heed

Jones
Khudobin

2020 Picks:
7 OA
TBL 1st
34 OA
Pitt 3rd
Ott 5th
SJ 5th
Pitt 7th
Wash 7th

no way buffalo does that deal..lol. Hertl? Maybe but not for Logan

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

no way buffalo does that deal..lol. Hertl? Maybe but not for Logan

Idk, they want to win now to appease the fans and Eichel and Cooch arguably gives them a better shot at that next year with Hertls knee surgery

 

[Barrie22]

Idk, they want to win now to appease the fans and Eichel and Cooch arguably gives them a better shot at that next year with Hertls knee surgery

And why does san jose go through with that trade? If couture and labanc are going to buffalo then the piece coming back has to be eichel.

 

[Nolan11]

I'm interested in watching you get your head bit off in that cancerous part of the board .

Yeah, no thanks. Guess we are both too smart for that this time.

 

[Nolan11]

And why does san jose go through with that trade? If couture and labanc are going to buffalo then the piece coming back has to be eichel.

See post 941 above

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

And why does san jose go through with that trade? If couture and labanc are going to buffalo then the piece coming back has to be eichel.

There’s no way that gets it done. I’d imagine it would take Hertl + LaBanc + Unproctected 2021 first to even get the conversation started about Eichel.

 

[Barrie22]

See post 941 above

Not sure what post number 941 is phone does not show numbers.

But if its the one that says it all depends on what we do with the extra cap space.

Then its not really going to save you much money since to get a player of coutures calibre it is going to take atleast that much or more in free agency.

And then labanc does not save you any money since he is a free agent and counts as 0 dollars against the cap right now.

But you would still need to find 3 top 6 forwards now and a replacement for labanc.

All the while making a team that already lacked forward depth even worse then it was last year.

Yes the trade makes sense for buffalo, but absolutely zero sense from a sharks stand point who is trying to do the exact same thing as buffalo.

The only way those 2 get traded especially together is to find a better younger version of couture. And cozens and whatever buffalo pick turns out to be is not that trade.