2019/2020 season predictions

[OMG67]

I mean the West is usually better than the East

Case in point....

 

[Snippit]

Case in point....

The distribution of cup winners over the past 10-15 years, and the head to head record between the conferences make the case.

The West has been the better conference for a while so the narrative that you alluded to in your original post seems reasonable.

 

[OMG67]

The distribution of cup winners over the past 10-15 years, and the head to head record between the conferences make the case.

The West has been the better conference for a while so the narrative that you alluded to in your original post seems reasonable.

Yes, because the single Cup winner determines the strength of an entire conference.

 

[Snippit]

Yes, because the single Cup winner determines the strength of an entire conference.

Over a long period it’s not a bad indicator at all. Especially when the head to head record usually corroborates it.

 

[Savard18]

Case in point....

I'm honestly surprised you're back to arguing that already. You spent a lot of time making that case last year and then the Finals happened. The actual (factual?) numbers during the regular season almost always bear that out if you don't like the results in the Finals. Which I think would be even more skewed if the Soo didn't have a nightmare road to the Finals in 17-18.

 

[OMG67]

I'm honestly surprised you're back to arguing that already. You spent a lot of time making that case last year and then the Finals happened. The actual (factual?) numbers during the regular season almost always bear that out if you don't like the results in the Finals. Which I think would be even more skewed if the Soo didn't have a nightmare road to the Finals in 17-18.

Hence my original post regarding “my predictions.” We aren’t out of August and we are already arguing the West better than the East.

This one I find sort of funny. I’m not picking on you either, just pointing it out. It does lend some credence to my original predictions post which does sort of make me snicker a little. Again, I say it in jest, with no malice.

The West is better than the East because it wins more Finals, except when the East wins (Hamilton) because the Sault got worn down by the other Western Clubs. So, even when the East wins, it is mostly because their competition is weak and they were rested.

In the end, I agree the West is generally better than the East. There are a great number of reasons why this is but it is not because of the Finals winner. That is one team out of the ten teams that play in that conference. The West is better based usually on the quality of the top 5 teams vs the East top 5 teams. Arguing one conference is better than the other conference because the top team is best is like arguing the one conference is weaker than the other conference because the 10th place team was worse than the other conference 10th place team. It makes no sense.

 

[NOA]

Hence my original post regarding “my predictions.” We aren’t out of August and we are already arguing the West better than the East.

This one I find sort of funny. I’m not picking on you either, just pointing it out. It does lend some credence to my original predictions post which does sort of make me snicker a little. Again, I say it in jest, with no malice.

The West is better than the East because it wins more Finals, except when the East wins (Hamilton) because the Sault got worn down by the other Western Clubs. So, even when the East wins, it is mostly because their competition is weak and they were rested.

In the end, I agree the West is generally better than the East. There are a great number of reasons why this is but it is not because of the Finals winner. That is one team out of the ten teams that play in that conference. The West is better based usually on the quality of the top 5 teams vs the East top 5 teams. Arguing one conference is better than the other conference because the top team is best is like arguing the one conference is weaker than the other conference because the 10th place team was worse than the other conference 10th place team. It makes no sense.

I think generally people don’t make their “West better than East” argument because of the winners in the finals. That is sort of the end result though that indicates there is something to the idea

With more research and data, usually there are regular season results that show the west (particularly the top 5 teams) are better than the east (particularly their top 5 teams).

I don’t know what makes it this way, but it generally just keeps happening year after year.

 

[Savard18]

Hence my original post regarding “my predictions.” We aren’t out of August and we are already arguing the West better than the East.

This one I find sort of funny. I’m not picking on you either, just pointing it out. It does lend some credence to my original predictions post which does sort of make me snicker a little. Again, I say it in jest, with no malice.

The West is better than the East because it wins more Finals, except when the East wins (Hamilton) because the Sault got worn down by the other Western Clubs. So, even when the East wins, it is mostly because their competition is weak and they were rested.

In the end, I agree the West is generally better than the East. There are a great number of reasons why this is but it is not because of the Finals winner. That is one team out of the ten teams that play in that conference. The West is better based usually on the quality of the top 5 teams vs the East top 5 teams. Arguing one conference is better than the other conference because the top team is best is like arguing the one conference is weaker than the other conference because the 10th place team was worse than the other conference 10th place team. It makes no sense.

Well, you brought it up first this time. Enabler. Right now it looks to me like this year the East is going to give the West a real test or at least keep it close.

 

[dirty12]

The mid-west has consistently been best with three teams needing to load up to get ahead of London especially and Kitchener. The other divisions alternate between weak and strong. Right now the central is pretty weak; a couple of seasons ago, it was the west.

 

[OMG67]

Well, you brought it up first this time. Enabler. Right now it looks to me like this year the East is going to give the West a real test or at least keep it close.

The main reason is the consistency of London. Their consistency drives the competition in the West. Kitchener, historically, has always been on a relatively good cycle. They've had a lot of strong coaching and management teams. Their building and the number of people coinsistently in it has helped. Sault has had a reall strong and sustained run. Since Dubas had taken over that team, they've been relatively strong. Erie pops their head out every few years on cycle. Owen Sound always manages to be competitive. The west has a strong nucleus foundation from which to propell the conference.

The West also has a collection of relatively strong buildings and revenues. It allows them to spend on management and development.

The East has had its struggles in the GTA. Brampton, Mississauga, St Mike's. Up North, North Bay and Sudbury have struggled with attendance. Plus they have the higher travel costs. The Pete's have struggled a lot since the new major junior hockey model of bigger spending has come into play. Their building cannot generate the revenue required to really compete year after year. At best they can do a one in four cycle.

The East lives pretty much on the wrong side of the tracks so to speak. Ottawa, Kingston, Oshawa, and Niagara are the only Eastern teams that can financially sustain themselves at a high competitive level based on the buildings and general fan support. It is really hard for the other teams to generate the types of revenue required to invest in the higher end management and coaching as well as high performance training teams. We won't even get into inducements like scholarships etc.

There is not much the East can do with respect to the depth of the conference. Because it is generally weaker, there is less of a need to pump tires at the deadline because of the level of their direct competition combined with overall resources.

It will continue to stay this way. I don't see any massive shifts. Sudbury would need to find the success with the same formula as Sault. The Pete's would need to match Owen Sound. Kingston needs an ownership change and some serious fresh air. Hamilton needs a new rink. If all of these were to happen, I could start to see some financial balance which leads to better staffing and higher performance. But these things are a long shot in my mind....each and every one of them.

 

[Matttheleaf]

Does anyone feel that Joey G leaving the Rangers to go try out for the Pros has badly hurt the Rangers chances this year?

 

[MatthewsMoustache]

Does anyone feel that Joey G leaving the Rangers to go try out for the Pros has badly hurt the Rangers chances this year?

yes, but I don’t think it changes the top 3 teams in the west. their D core is better than it’s been in years

 

[AttackSound]

Another debatable conversation about the conferences.

Let's look at the simple facts here historically the western conference has been for the most part the most consistently successful conference for the longest time, this dosen't mean that the eastern conference hasn't had good teams in that span just that the eastern conference teams have had a tougher challenge against the western conference when the playoffs rolls around in March.

Last season was a good example of this as Ottawa arguably had the better of the two league final rosters on paper, the downside wasn't Ottawa's ability to play against Guelph but that resiliency from the Storm mixed with a big key injury to Dipietro was the 67's downfall.

I have no doubt in my mind that if Ottawa had healthy tending against Guelph the outcome could've been a complete 180 degree difference in the league final. Having said that if you flipped teams around in each conference and played out last season as it did there really no way of telling whether or not Guelph and Ottawa would or wouldn't have been the league final. Having said that the stats don't lie about who has had the more consistent success from a conference standpoint in the past decade and until the eastern conference shows that they can win league titles on a consistent basis the western conference will continue to have the upper hand in the league series of which conference is better than the other.

 

[Frank the Skank]

I would like to know the travel costs incurred by Sudbury and North Bay vs Erie and the Soo.. I'd be willing to bet it's not that different and could be even worse for the two Western Conference teams.

Attendance is a weak excuse. Create a place where people want to attend. Don't bitch and moan about it.

 

[OMG67]

I would like to know the travel costs incurred by Sudbury and North Bay vs Erie and the Soo.. I'd be willing to bet it's not that different and could be even worse for the two Western Conference teams.

Attendance is a weak excuse. Create a place where people want to attend. Don't ***** and moan about it.

You can't flip a switch on attendance. It is the market you are in. Belleville was traditionally a solid market but they needed a viable rink. They are now in Hamilton that needs a viable rink.

The East also encompasses the GTA. That experiment has not panned out at all. The Steelheads still suffer.

SSM has the new rink that helped rejuvinate their revenue stream and allowed them to invest in management. Both Sudbury and North Bay struggle in that area and need a building more suitable to generating revenue.

Generally speaking, all Western Conference teams have suitable rinks. In the East, Sudbury, North Bay, Hamilton and Peterborough are lacking. Then Mississauga in no mans land. That is half of the Eastern teams that lag behind. When you look at success rates for those teams, it hasn't been very good. A lot of that has to do with revenue generation.

 

[leafsrdue]

I am not sure the Bayshore is a great OHL facility but the good attendance and strong ownership/management seems to make it work.

 

[OMG67]

I am not sure the Bayshore is a great OHL facility but the good attendance and strong ownership/management seems to make it work.

Major renovation. It really helped. That said, Owen Sound is a bit of an anomaly. They do have solid ownership and they’ve done really well with consistency of management. They’ve also resisted the urge to go through cycles. That consistency really helps. I am not sure they could do a major push and purge of assets more than every ten years or so.

 

[AttackSound]

I am not sure the Bayshore is a great OHL facility but the good attendance and strong ownership/management seems to make it work.

The Bayshore is a very unique facility as for amenities the building is one of a kind one of the very few old style arenas in the province, the lower style ceiling and brightly lit concourse is one of the nicer facilities in the OHL. How they make it work is simple public exposure for the Attack, and a one of junior hockey's most competitive OHL clubs as the primary tenant.

As many fans around the league not seem to understand is that the Attack are a very much a regional team as fans from the surrounding counties pack the 3,400 seat facility what makes the building work is not what the facility is like but how the team markets and supports the area in many community minded ways.

The region that makes the home of Owen Sound and the Attack is what has embraced junior hockey for the past 3 decades and the local community support for the team is something that has built a reputation as being one of the biggest stories of one of the smallest markets in the CHL.

Make no mistake about there is nothing more electrifying than playoff hockey in Owen Sound in mid-March to show how Owen Sound is one of the OHL's most interesting franchises.

I strongly recommend that before you judge an Arena or city like Owen Sound to take in a game on a Saturday night against any good competitive team in the second half of the season or playoff series before you judge Owen Sound based upon arena capacity or facility.

If you want to see a building that had no business being in the OHL and is the main reason why they relocated go see a game in St.Mikes College Arena.

 

[Ferda11]

The Bayshore is a very unique facility as for amenities the building is one of a kind one of the very few old style arenas in the province, the lower style ceiling and brightly lit concourse is one of the nicer facilities in the OHL. How they make it work is simple public exposure for the Attack, and a one of junior hockey's most competitive OHL clubs as the primary tenant.

As many fans around the league not seem to understand is that the Attack are a very much a regional team as fans from the surrounding counties pack the 3,400 seat facility what makes the building work is not what the facility is like but how the team markets and supports the area in many community minded ways.

The region that makes the home of Owen Sound and the Attack is what has embraced junior hockey for the past 3 decades and the local community support for the team is something that has built a reputation as being one of the biggest stories of one of the smallest markets in the CHL.

Make no mistake about there is nothing more electrifying than playoff hockey in Owen Sound in mid-March to show how Owen Sound is one of the OHL's most interesting franchises.

I strongly recommend that before you judge an Arena or city like Owen Sound to take in a game on a Saturday night against any good competitive team in the second half of the season or playoff series before you judge Owen Sound based upon arena capacity or facility.

If you want to see a building that had no business being in the OHL and is the main reason why they relocated go see a game in St.Mikes College Arena.

What article did you copy and paste that from?

 

[ohloutsider]

Sorry -thought this was the prediction thread.

Anyone else got a handle on who will NOT make the playoffs in the western conference? The bottom 6 teams is not clear to me. Guelph would be fools if they don't sell so I see them as 1 but who is the other team?

 

[Ferda11]

Sorry -thought this was the prediction thread.

Anyone else got a handle on who will NOT make the playoffs in the western conference? The bottom 6 teams is not clear to me. Guelph would be fools if they don't sell so I see them as 1 but who is the other team?

I believe I had Guelph and Erie missing. I could also see Flint missing as well.

 

[Finster8]

Saginaw
London
Kitchener
Flint
Windsor
OS
SSM
Sarnia
Erie
Guelph

Petes
Sudbury
Oshawa
Ottawa
Barrie
Missy
Kingston
Hamilton
NB
Niagara

 

[AttackSound]

What article did you copy and paste that from?

Wasn't copied that's from 25 years of supporting the same team as a STH.

 

[TcNorth]

This list will be a shot in dark
Saginaw
London
Kitchener
SSM
Windsor
OS
Flint
Sarnia
Erie
Guelph

Ottawa
Sudbury
Oshawa
Petes
Barrie
Missy
NB
Hamilton
Kingston
Niagara For now?

Saginaw #1? Homer. Just kidding. Saginaw has just as good a chance as 3 or 4 teams.

 

[Finster8]

Saginaw #1? Homer. Just kidding. Saginaw has just as good a chance as 3 or 4 teams.

How did you know my name was Homer? But I do agree the top 4 as well as bottom 4 will be tight.