2019-2020 Around the League Thread - Part V

[Hasbro]

Again, you're just clutching onto hyperbole and ignoring what I've said many, many, many times: Kyle Dubas has made mistakes too. I've said repeatedly his handling of the backup goalie situation was not acceptable, it left an overworked goalie even more overworked. He's been wrong plenty of times. And a big gamble he made this offseason as part of the Marleau salary dump proved to be far more costly than he anticipated. Never, not once did I say the statwhackers were above reproach and that they were never wrong. You said that. They get it wrong all the time. It doesn't guarantee winning, it just hopefully makes the path to winning a little easier.

That said, you don't get to dismiss all the factors working against Dubas in the two years he's been in charge in Toronto. You also conveniently ignore that stats-heavy front offices in Los Angeles and Chicago won a combined FIVE CUPS in recent years. Colorado followed their lead, and they all modeled their organizations after Detroit.

One prime example of the stats crowd getting it wrong: I remember one time the stats crowd decried a trade years ago when the Habs traded defenseman Raphael Diaz for forward Dale Weise. Weise was a decent grinder on a hot streak in Vancouver and Diaz was a guy with good underlying numbers, but not a lot of production. The stats crowd predicted Montreal would regret that trade. Instead, Diaz washed out of the league and Weise became "Dutch Gretzky" in Montreal, and is--amazingly--still playing. The math said one thing is likely, and then reality had other ideas. It happens.



It's possible you're right. Dubas might crash and burn. Doesn't eliminate the possibility that someone might someday. They've more than proven their worth working under successful GMs though.

Dubas has specifically painted himself into a corner by ignoring things outside of stats. Witness the Kadri trade and their salary structure.

 

[ItsFineImFine]

I think the Leafs were obsessed with Barrie pre-Dubas. I wonder if higher ups like Shanahan pressured for that trade. It was a bit bizarre at the time, I guess giving them back Kerfoot made it really tempting because they got a competent 3rd line C (in the regular season at least) but they always needed more of a defensive RHD rather than an offensive one.

 

[Pokecheque]

Dubas has specifically painted himself into a corner by ignoring things outside of stats. Witness the Kadri trade and their salary structure.

You might be right, the fact remains that an organization that relies on stats traded players with another organization that relies on stats.

 

[dahrougem2]

If Tyson Barrie played up to his capabilities, that trade doesn't look so bad for Toronto and there's probably a large portion of their fanbase wanting to re-sign him, just like there was here.

Tyson Barrie ****ing sucking this entire season and not meshing with anyone on that team is why that trade looks horrible now.

 

[Avsboy]

Fact is a legendary player who knows the game, Joe Sakic, traded with a stats nerd in Dubas. Sakic understood the value in Kadri's contract and saw clutch ability in him (and Bura). Sakic eyeballed the trade, and his eyeball won.

 

[Spleenless Wonder21]

I assume Lehner will cash in come free agency, & it won’t be in Vegas?

 

[Pokecheque]

Fact is a legendary player who knows the game, Joe Sakic, traded with a stats nerd in Dubas. Sakic understood the value in Kadri's contract and saw clutch ability in him (and Bura). Sakic eyeballed the trade, and his eyeball won.

All due respect, you’re taking quite a few liberties there. If Sakic and the Avs disrespected Dubas like this, they never would have pursued him previously.

There was no subterfuge there—the Leafs wanted a right-handed puckmover with offensive skill. Barrie fit their needs perfectly on paper at least. It didn’t work out that way for a variety of reasons. But I don’t think they dumped Barrie because they thought he might be on the decline, it’s because Cale Makar’s arrival made him expendable. Had fortune gone a different way in 2017 and the Avs had gotten Nico Hischier, I think Barrie would have already been re-signed by now.

 

[Avsboy]

All due respect, you’re taking quite a few liberties there. If Sakic and the Avs disrespected Dubas like this, they never would have pursued him previously.

There was no subterfuge there—the Leafs wanted a right-handed puckmover with offensive skill. Barrie fit their needs perfectly on paper at least. It didn’t work out that way for a variety of reasons. But I don’t think they dumped Barrie because they thought he might be on the decline, it’s because Cale Makar’s arrival made him expendable. Had fortune gone a different way in 2017 and the Avs had gotten Nico Hischier, I think Barrie would have already been re-signed by now.

The Avs felt Barrie was dispensable because his price tag was too high without bringing the defensive zone presence of an elite dman. If he was the complete package he'd still be an Av even with Makar. Dubas relies too much on stats spreadsheets to see that Barrie would not bring it on the defensive end.

 

[Pokecheque]

The Avs felt Barrie was dispensable because his price tag was too high without bringing the defensive zone presence of an elite dman. If he was the complete package he'd still be an Av even with Makar. Dubas relies too much on stats spreadsheets to see that Barrie would not bring it on the defensive end.

Again, you’re just filling in the blanks on your own. The only fact we have before us is that the Avalanche had a potential superstar defenseman who was also right-handed, and he came at a fraction of the cost that Barrie did. They would not have just up and traded Barrie if Makar wasn’t there. Who was going to provide the offense? Johnson? Graves? Cole? Big Z? Girard all on his own then?

 

[Avsboy]

Again, you’re just filling in the blanks on your own. The only fact we have before us is that the Avalanche had a potential superstar defenseman who was also right-handed, and he came at a fraction of the cost that Barrie did. They would not have just up and traded Barrie if Makar wasn’t there. Who was going to provide the offense? Johnson? Graves? Cole? Big Z? Girard all on his own then?

I never said much about Makar, but instead focused on Barrie himself. He was not worth the price tag. Sakic felt so and Dubas decided to bite on him when Sakic knew Barrie's deficiencies. If we didn't have Makar we'd find other mobile two-way defensemen. The point is that Sakic saw Barrie's deficiencies, saw his contract demands, saw Kadri was available with his clutch play and fantastic contract, and made a great move. Dubas apparently didn't see what Sakic saw, probably because he was focused too much on stats and advanced stats.

 

[Pokecheque]

I never said much about Makar, but instead focused on Barrie himself. He was not worth the price tag. Sakic felt so and Dubas decided to bite on him when Sakic knew Barrie's deficiencies. If we didn't have Makar we'd find other mobile two-way defensemen. The point is that Sakic saw Barrie's deficiencies, saw his contract demands, saw Kadri was available with his clutch play and fantastic contract, and made a great move. Dubas apparently didn't see what Sakic saw, probably because he was focused too much on stats and advanced stats.

You can focus on Barrie all you want--you're still making stuff up.

Everyone knows what Barrie's deficiencies are. They're not some sort of trade secret. He didn't sell Kyle Dubas a bag of magic beans as you seem to imply with your elaborate narrative here. He, like any other GM in his position, saw a way to address a need by using a player who was now expendable. It just so happens that his contract did happen to be expiring, so that made it an even easier decision. That's it. The fact that the trade seemed to go way more in the Avs favor is just the way things go sometimes. If you want to believe Joe Sakic is some genius hoodwinker who got the better of a young counterpart, you're entitled to your vision. Truth is, there's probably not a ton of difference between the front office experience between Sakic and Dubas. Dubas has been doing this for a long time too, just at different levels of hockey.

But again, Sakic would not have traded Barrie if Makar wasn't there, deficiencies or not. Sakic would not have filled one hole by digging another.

 

[Hasbro]

Can you imagine dealing with an overtired Torterella?

 

[Balthazar]

Again, you’re just filling in the blanks on your own. The only fact we have before us is that the Avalanche had a potential superstar defenseman who was also right-handed, and he came at a fraction of the cost that Barrie did. They would not have just up and traded Barrie if Makar wasn’t there. Who was going to provide the offense? Johnson? Graves? Cole? Big Z? Girard all on his own then?

The damage between Barrie and the Avs was done way before the arrival of Makar. He was never going to stay past this contract. Makar was the icing on the cake.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

The Avalanche have flourished ever since they finally embraced statwhacking (as you so affectionately refer to it). Coincidence? No.

The Avalanche and Maple Leafs have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that you cannot ever, ever, have statwhackers and people who are diametrically opposed to statwhacking in the same room. Roy is and always will be opposed to them. And I have it on good authority that Josh Kroenke made the push for statwhacking to be incorporated at all levels of KSE. Sakic was obviously open to the idea, Roy wasn't. Guess which one stayed?

It was worse in Toronto, where they had an analytics faction (Shanahan, Dubas) and an anti-analytics faction (Lamoriello, Hunter, Babcock). The minute Shanahan opted for Dubas over Hunter, Babcock went out of his way to sabotage him. That conflict cost the Leafs two seasons where they could've done some good. I could understand them sticking with Babs for that one season, but Shanahan erred horribly when he didn't let Dubas shitcan the guy this last summer. I don't think many GMs would succeed when they had a coach who was literally trying to get them fired.

You really shouldn't just look at Kyle Dubas as "the stats guy" because analytics is everywhere, in all levels of professional sports now. Virtually every organization around the world has utilized them to some extent. The few and far between holdouts have not fared well, and Florida just fired the guy who waged a one-man war against advanced statistics, booting anyone and everyone off the roster and in the front office who had anything to do with them. There are no "test cases" for the validity of statwhacking. It works. Everyone knows this. It's also not some magic wand that conjures a winning roster out of thin air. It just shows you stuff like, hey, that big lumbering shot-blocking defenseman might not be as valuable as the speedy undersized puckmoving blueliner. Maybe give the latter guy more money and ice time. That doesn't seem like some crazy, off-kilter idea.

I do wonder why you hate analytics so much. They're really not that big a deal. Did some securities firm and their fancy algorithm steal your life savings or something?

You need to have stack whackers working together with traditionalists. You can't have them in opposition to each other AND you can't sway one direction or the other. If you have that, you will fail. Sakic is looking like the hands off GM that just brings people with different views together to make the optimal decisions. Too bad he couldn't get that with a control freak like Roy.

 

[Pokecheque]

The damage between Barrie and the Avs was done way before the arrival of Makar. He was never going to stay past this contract. Makar was the icing on the cake.

If they didn’t have a viable replacement for him they likely would have kept him.

 

[dahrougem2]

The damage between Barrie and the Avs was done way before the arrival of Makar. He was never going to stay past this contract. Makar was the icing on the cake.

That damage was Patrick Roy. He was gone.

If this organization hadn't drafted Cale Makar, Tyson Barrie would very likely still be a member of this team.

 

[S E P H]

That damage was Patrick Roy. He was gone.

If this organization hadn't drafted Cale Makar, Tyson Barrie would very likely still be a member of this team.

Not sure about it, there's an Athletic article stating that overwhelming number of players eventually leave or get traded from the team they go through arbitration with. Barrie was a goner regardless if Roy was here or not, Patrick just tried to shove him out of the door quicker than Sakic did.

E: Here's the article
If a player makes it to an arbitration hearing, history suggests he's likely a goner

 

[Balthazar]

If they didn’t have a viable replacement for him they likely would have kept him.

Yeah I don't think so. For the same reason that ROR got traded, Stastny wasn't asked to come back and EJ won't get bought out. Sakic asked core players to believe in his plan. Those who prefered money are gone. I don't blame either side.

 

[Pokecheque]

Yeah I don't think so. For the same reason that ROR got traded, Stastny wasn't asked to come back and EJ won't get bought out. Sakic asked core players to believe in his plan. Those who prefered money are gone. I don't blame either side.

If those who “prefer money” are goners, I guess we’d better buckle up for a Mikko Rantanen trade then!

This is just even more false narrative. You have little to nothing to base this on than your own speculation. At the time of O’Reilly’s and Stastny’s departures, the team still had two star centers in Duchene and MacKinnon. It wasn’t until the bottom dropped out and Duchene asked out that center depth became a serious issue. But before then, they could afford to part ways with Stastny and O’Reilly because they had depth at the position (but they did mess up on shoring up the defense lost up front with those two players gone).

If you really think they would have simply dumped Barrie with no Plan B in place you’re just out to lunch.

And we’ll see about EJ. Sakic has another year or so before he has a decision to make.

 

[Balthazar]

If those who “prefer money” are goners, I guess we’d better buckle up for a Mikko Rantanen trade then!.

Rants signed 6 years for 1.5M AAV less than Marner who was his comparable according to everyone. I'd say that he's in.

 

[Pokecheque]

Rants signed 6 years for 1.5M AAV less than Marner who was his comparable according to everyone. I'd say that he's in.

Still was a protracted negotiation process. I think you’re waaaay overrating sentiment here. Sakic is not Pierre Lacroix. I don’t think he holds grudges.

 

[dahrougem2]

Not sure about it, there's an Athletic article stating that overwhelming number of players eventually leave or get traded from the team they go through arbitration with. Barrie was a goner regardless if Roy was here or not, Patrick just tried to shove him out of the door quicker than Sakic did.

E: Here's the article
If a player makes it to an arbitration hearing, history suggests he's likely a goner

Again, if Cale Makar wasn't on this team I highly doubt Tyson Barrie was a goner. In fact, given the lack of mobility and offense from the back end, I think Sakic would have happily paid Tyson Barrie unless he was 100000000% confident in his abilities to secure a big time UFA defensemen this summer like Alex Pietrangelo, or a trade was in place to bring an offensive defensemen into the lineup.

Cale Makar changed things, for the better clearly, but if he wasn't here I don't think Tyson Barrie was as good as gone.

 

[Balthazar]

Must be real fun to cover the Jackets as a journalist.

 

[McMetal]

Must be real fun to cover the Jackets as a journalist.

I think his pressers are hilarious, especially after a loss. He is deliberately as unhelpful as a human can be. I mean, press conferences are always dumb and full of cliches. I just love that he lays it bare and doesn't try to hide how much he hates them.

 

[Balthazar]

I think his pressers are hilarious, especially after a loss. He is deliberately as unhelpful as a human can be. I mean, press conferences are always dumb and full of cliches. I just love that he lays it bare and doesn't try to hide how much he hates them.

I'd hate to have to ask him something because that's my job and he'd make me feel stupid for doing it.