21 defensemen have played >180 minutes on the PP this season. Here are Ivan's ranks:
Goals/60 (1/21)
Shooting% (1/21)
ixGF/60 (17/21)
Assists/60 (20/21)
First Assists/60 (21/21)
Points/60 (15/21)
xGF/60 (19/21)
If his 18.4 shooting % holds, it would be tied for the highest among defensemen in the last 3 years. For perspective, after Letang at 18.2%, 3rd place is Makar at 10.8%. That's quite the drop off. It's hard to explain that on talent alone, but even if we begin from that assumption, Provorov's individual expected goals/60 ranks 17th. He's actually scoring 4x the goals/60 that his shot locations indicate he
should score. Now, that's a far from perfect statistic, but those are shot locations and shooting %s that look ripe for regression. Most of his PP goals are the seeing eye variety.
The curious thing is, Ivan actually has a monster wrist shot. Off the rush or when he activates into a seam, he can drag pull his release with the best of 'em. But on the PP, he pretty much just shoots point floaters and one timers from the blue line. But they're finding their way in.
And with the PP issues in general (
Michel, ma belle), I'm not saying his assist numbers and on-ice stats aren't a little low, but they're still essentially dead last. Does that match the eye test? The previous 3 years of data isn't irrelevant either. In the end, it's impossible to get usage like this and not produce. So, the question is: is he and will he continue to provide
positive value there? How do we define
positive value? Is he the best option, the easiest option, etc.? I think he has that spot locked up for years to come now. But that doesn't make it settled science.