2019/20 Roster Thread XXXII (3/5: Farabee Recalled From LHV)

[Rebels57]

And in relation to the stats thing... all those guys do great work.

But I always feel that working in definites in this world of ours is both commendable in terms of confidence (especially when know going to get backlash)... but often can come across as idealistic and self-righteous. (I say that as someone who has both of those attributes ingrained in my personality...) But the world is a thousand shades of grey and not black and white. That is the same with numbers.

Underlying stats are a great tool. Everyone here knows I utilise them and enjoy delving into them.

But there are a lot of variables in hockey, and if you are running correlation coefficients, linear regressions etc on that many moving parts... then a fantastic result is that your model accounts for 50%+ of variance off the top of my head.

Having studied that area but in relation to crime, yeh, things are a great "indicator"... and you will for sure realise things that you probably never thought of when plug them into a model... and also that the stats are a better overall indicator than one set of eyes could be... but that sometimes for specific data points a different model would actually work better.

For example I have never believed it is sheer coincidence that when you combine: High QoC with below 40-45% zone starts the result is it being basically impossible to get over 50% Corsi and ExGF... and that every player who has played such minutes suffers. No model really accounts for that right now, as they look at the bigger picture, and over big samples of a lot of players in different situations... yeh... both zone starts and QoC are not "that" important. In turn I would guess a lot of models "unfairly" deflate those players results while inflating those with joke minutes. Yeh, you are talking maybe ~30 players a year who will be affected by that over a model (and overall such models are great, predictive etc)... but speaking in definites when there are areas that are more nuanced.

And with that: Draisaitl should almost certainly not be in the Hart race or particularly close. He is a net positive and amazing offensively but McDavid is better on the same team... and one of the worst forwards in the NHL inside his own half of ice.

This is perfectly stated. Don't be an absolutist and you won't get as much backlash and you will actually do a better job at increasing interest in the topic.

Also, you brought up a great example with the QoC + Zone Starts. According to Micah and Evolving Wild QoC is not important due to QoT and neither are zone starts due to how many shifts start and end on the fly.

And regarding Drai, i'm positive he will get nominated for the Hart even though he doesn't deserve to be. Which also shows that Hockey Guys have a long way to go as well.

 

[TB87]

As far as being able to at least be partially accounted for/controlled by coach’s:

QoT>>>>>>QoC


Zone Starts are one of the most overblown stats in hockey. Up there with the immaculate plus-minus.

 

[Beef Invictus]

After reading that coaching is overrated
If you're one of these common sense people who actually think coaching matters, they actually scare me the most. Trotz has that team playing some tight hockey

It depends on which Trotz is coaching in the playoffs when it comes to his teams. During the year he's quite flexible with gameplans, but aside from the Cup run in Washington he's always tended to suddenly become rigid in the playoffs.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

High QoC with below 40-45% zone starts the result is it being basically impossible to get over 50% Corsi and ExGF... and that every player who has played such minutes suffers. No model really accounts for that right now, as they look at the bigger picture, and over big samples of a lot of players in different situations... yeh... both zone starts and QoC are not "that" important. In turn I would guess a lot of models "unfairly" deflate those players results while inflating those with joke minutes.

First, degrees of certainty is my #1 concern with how the current stats community at large presents itself. I could not possibly agree with that sentiment more. Every time I see someone stating +2.X xGFRel is clearly better than +1.X xGFRel over 20 games, I die a little inside.

As you know, it's tough to even agree on how best to define QoC, so this is a tricky subject. But my guess as to why this is would be that the pool of players for whom this is true also have terrible linemates. Getting a sufficient sample size to study this must be a nightmare because you're probably only drawing on a small fraction of those 30.

 

[Appleyard]

As far as being able to at least be partially accounted for/controlled by coach’s:

QoT>>>>>>QoC


Zone Starts are one of the most overblown stats in hockey. Up there with the immaculate plus-minus.

They are... in isolation.

But when you run correlations for xGF, CF etc vs guys with very tough ZSR and QoC combos the results are that 50% ExGF or CF are close to impossible. Even amongst guys who when had normal minutes were very good possesion players. Mark Giordano is basically the only Dman in 13 years to manage positive in both when faced with those minutes over a season.

Statistically speaking it is hard to imagine that is just noise...

Ofc though over a large sample with 95% of the sample clustered in the middle those are effectively outliers, and dont affect the set too much either way.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

This is perfectly stated. Don't be an absolutist and you won't get as much backlash and you will actually do a better job at increasing interest in the topic.

The assholes on the qualitative side are no better or worse than those in the hardline Hockey Guys camp. I don't find it worth my time to discuss the subject with anyone that still doesn't understand you need both quantitative and traditional scouting departments working in unison, helping guide each other on improving, or you're doing it wrong.

I understand making mistakes on both ends though. It's really tough to find the right blend of confidence and wiggle room when speaking on these subjects. If you come off wishy-washy, people are less likely to listen. If you take too many stands, you're a jerk. I can't imagine running a Twitter account with 20k Followers. That would put me in a nuthouse.

 

[bobbythebrain]

This is perfectly stated. Don't be an absolutist and you won't get as much backlash and you will actually do a better job at increasing interest in the topic.

Also, you brought up a great example with the QoC + Zone Starts. According to Micah and Evolving Wild QoC is not important due to QoT and neither are zone starts due to how many shifts start and end on the fly.

And regarding Drai, i'm positive he will get nominated for the Hart even though he doesn't deserve to be. Which also shows that Hockey Guys have a long way to go as well.

I'd love to hear your thoughts why?

The team has had big injuries.

I'll also add that the Oil pp has been a major part to that mediocre rosters success...so when McD got hurt it was inevitable that the pp would struggle.

So how does Drai counter that? The Nuge/Dra/Yamo line becomes the hottest line in hockey.

Not sure what more the guy needs to do tbh

 

[Flyerfan4life]

I've been pretty critical at times but I think we have to get on board with the fact that AV should be the Jack Adams winner. I was resistant to this idea but he seems objectively to be the best choice.

i think he and Torts (depending on were CBJ ends up @ PO time) should be the front runners for it

 

[Appleyard]

I'd love to hear your thoughts why?

The team has had big injuries.

I'll also add that the Oil pp has been a major part to that mediocre rosters success...so when McD got hurt it was inevitable that the pp would struggle.

So how does Drai counter that? The Nuge/Dra/Yamo line becomes the hottest line in hockey.

Not sure what more the guy needs to do tbh

Play some defence. A player who is on ice for 2 goals a game and 1 against is more valuable than a guy who is on ice for 4 for and 4 against.

Despite his insane scoring he is 7th on the team amongst regulars in actual 5v5 GF%... and all his regular linemates are ahead of him. Edmonton also get outchanced, outshot etc with him on ice (he is below team average in that area... 3rd worst regular on team after Khaira and Archibald.)

He is ofc a great player, and a net positive who is having one of the best offensive seasons in recent memory...

but he is also having one of the worst defensive seasons for a top forward in recent memory.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Panarin
MacKinnon
Pastrnak
Matthews
Pettersson

would probably be my top 5 right now.

There are two ends to a hockey rink and even in terms of just "raw" net result Draisaitl is only just breaking even because he is playing very little D.

If you're picking a Canucks skater for MVP, it's actually JT Miller, IMO.

Canucks MVP is actually Markstrom, though.

I expect Draisaitl, Panarin and MacKinnon to be the nominees, unless the Rangers miss, in which case Pastrnak probably cracks the top 3.

 

[TCTC]

This is perfectly stated. Don't be an absolutist and you won't get as much backlash and you will actually do a better job at increasing interest in the topic.

Also, you brought up a great example with the QoC + Zone Starts. According to Micah and Evolving Wild QoC is not important due to QoT and neither are zone starts due to how many shifts start and end on the fly.

And regarding Drai, i'm positive he will get nominated for the Hart even though he doesn't deserve to be. Which also shows that Hockey Guys have a long way to go as well.

That's why Appleyard is the only one I trust when it comes to advanced stats. He never has an agenda.

 

[Appleyard]

That's why Appleyard is the only one I trust when it comes to advanced stats. He never has an agenda.

I try not to.

But it is at times hard to accept when a guy like Lauri Korpikoski goes from good player to awful very quickly and still enjoy his play, WANT him to be good again haha.

 

[TB87]

The Flyers have been playing like a top 10 team for nearly 2 months now. Pretty, pretty cool eh?

This is a fun team to watch. I have no explanation for their odd starts to games but boy do they pick things up in the 2nd and 3rd periods (more often than not).

 

[baudib1]

I don't have access to E-W anymore but I was talking about the Draisatl thing with someone who agreed that he doesn't deserve the Hart. My vote is for Panarin and I assume he is very high on the WAR lists.

 

[flyersnorth]

The Flyers have been playing like a top 10 team for nearly 2 months now. Pretty, pretty cool eh?

View attachment 331375


This is a fun team to watch. I have no explanation for their odd starts to games but boy do they pick things up in the 2nd and 3rd periods (more often than not).

Out of curiosity, what does that look like if you use November 1 as the start date?

Since that time, they have the 2nd most points in the NHL (74). Bruins are 1st with 76.

So, basically, we had a bad October (21st in pts%).

 

[TB87]

Out of curiosity, what does that look like if you use November 1 as the start date?

Since that time, they have the 2nd most points in the NHL (74). Bruins are 1st with 76.

So, basically, we had a bad October (21st in pts%).

Nov 1st as the start date:

 

[Curufinwe]

It only took four games after the deadline for an injury to strike. Hopefully there aren't more coming.

 

[flyersnorth]

Nov 1st as the start date:
View attachment 331393

Thanks!

Overall, pretty impressive. I really like the trajectory this season has taken where we just seem to be getting better and better as time goes on. Such a fun team right now

 

[Johnk0728]

Play some defence. A player who is on ice for 2 goals a game and 1 against is more valuable than a guy who is on ice for 4 for and 4 against.

Despite his insane scoring he is 7th on the team amongst regulars in actual 5v5 GF%... and all his regular linemates are ahead of him. Edmonton also get outchanced, outshot etc with him on ice (he is below team average in that area... 3rd worst regular on team after Khaira and Archibald.)

He is ofc a great player, and a net positive who is having one of the best offensive seasons in recent memory...

but he is also having one of the worst defensive seasons for a top forward in recent memory.

Didn't you just explain the +/- stat? I thought that was illegal amongst analytic types. Like a vegetarian eating an egg.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Someone stopped reading after one sentence because... agenda.

 

[Rebels57]

I'd love to hear your thoughts why?

The team has had big injuries.

I'll also add that the Oil pp has been a major part to that mediocre rosters success...so when McD got hurt it was inevitable that the pp would struggle.

So how does Drai counter that? The Nuge/Dra/Yamo line becomes the hottest line in hockey.

Not sure what more the guy needs to do tbh

He doesn't play any defense so he is giving back nearly as much as he scores. He's been amazing offensively though. He also has an even better forward on his team in McDavid who isn't giving back as much defensively.

The Art Ross is enough recognition as he deserves this season.

 

[Curufinwe]

31 Thoughts: How Marc Bergevin sees Canadiens' present, future - Sportsnet.ca

4. The cap estimate being between $84 and $88.2 million is great news for the teams. They’ll have more than expected to spend, which is great news for the players. Because next season could have been a lockout/strike year, there was less cash in the system and a hope that players would use their escalator closer to its maximum five per cent. (It has been significantly lower in recent years, with escrow concerns.) The NHL and NHLPA have continued discussions on setting the ceiling for multiple seasons, likely through expansion Seattle’s first NHL year.

 

[Magua]

Nov 1st as the start date:
View attachment 331393

People can point to PP1’s actual goal scoring numbers this last month or two. But just look at those expected numbers, lifted in large part by PP1. Fluky it is not. We are talking historically bad, dead last in the league......to top 10. Just by going back to the old set-up, and even with Provorov there who at best is a neutral presence. The process was always sound until it very much was not. Truly maddening stuff. But thankfully we have Michel Therrien to solve these mysteries. Praise be.

I don’t think it is outlandish to say PP1’s return to form has been a major component in this surge. It’s certainly the largest value change.

 

[flyers0909]

People can point to PP1’s actual goal scoring numbers this last month or two. But just look at those expected numbers, lifted in large part by PP1. Fluky it is not. We are talking historically bad......to top 10. Just by going back to the old set-up, and even with Provorov there. The process was always sound until it very much was not. Truly maddening stuff. But thankfully we have Michel Therrien to solve these mysteries. Praise be.

I've mentioned it before but we've undoubtedly lost points this year due to how long the wrong setup was used. Even if it changes one game, we're in first right now.

 

[TB87]

Travis Konecny becoming a premier 5v4 PP winger this season is a very fun thing to witness:

- Wingers with at least 170 5v4 PP TOI this season: