2019-20 Roster Thread XIV: It's all about the sonnet

[FlyerNutter]

My hot take for the season is that Voracek will have a career year next season. Having an improved coaching staff and team will have him motivated now more then ever and a highly motivated Voracek is an elite player in the league.

Playing on this team the past few years had to be hard at times and yes I know they’re all paid to play this game.

The stars to me haven’t really been the issue on this club for multiple years. It’s been a lack of overall support and talent around them.

Whatever sniff at success this team has had, has come on the shoulders of Giroux, Couturier and Voracek. You can add Provorov and Ghost to that pile even though they could have had better seasons last year.

The hope is that the new coaching staff doesn’t sabotage this club and also chooses to play the more superior players even if they are (gasp) inexperienced.

Jake will do as he always has. Truly help the team win more often than naught.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Part of the difference of opinions is how do you differentiate Braun’s decline vs the decline of the pair? Vlasic and Braun are both headed south, and god damn I hate that I’m agreeing with @deadhead , but there is some logic to it being a bad pair due to that.

I know they don’t match up positionally, but Braun would clearly look better playing with EK for example. We had hagg—gudas shoved down our throats for half a season, which didn’t work for obvious reasons.

If we look at the individual player, Braun is a declining, offensively disinclined defensemen. As a pair with either sanheim or ghost, there is still potential chance of success.

Sure, and there are deployment issues too. That pair got legitimately tough competition. I'll even add to that and say Braun might be the better of the two at this point. And Vlasic is signed for 7? more seasons.

Anytime we have a player who spent ~71% of his ice time in the last 3 seasons with one partner, we're going to run into sample size issues trying to play the With/Without game. The argument for this centers around the underlying metrics of Dillon-Braun as a pair. They were good. When paired with Burns, they weren't particularly effective. I can construct numerical arguments both ways, as is usually the case.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

Sure, and there are deployment issues too. That pair got legitimately tough competition. I'll even add to that and say Braun might be the better of the two at this point. And Vlasic is signed for 7? more seasons.

Anytime we have a player who spent ~71% of his ice time in the last 3 seasons with one partner, we're going to run into sample size issues trying to play the With/Without game. The argument for this centers around the underlying metrics of Dillon-Braun as a pair. They were good. When paired with Burns, they weren't particularly effective. I can construct numerical arguments both ways, as is usually the case.

Of course. We can attempt to prognosticate all we want, but we’re not going to know for sure until October. For me, the assets are lost, the move was made. If people want to crucify the player, by all means exhaust that, but the truth is, he typically is handed the toughest ice there is for his team and generally does “okay”.

 

[deadhead]

Again, it's still one of his strengths. Just not as much as it used to be. I definitely expect improvement from the D corps at their own blue line this year.

That's Ekblad off in another universe if you're curious.

And it's Sanheim's biggest weakness, almost as bad as Hagg.
So why would they want to pair a veteran defenseman whose biggest strength is a young defenseman's biggest weakness?
Beats me?

I don't think they have any illusions about Braun, they want him to mentor Sanheim and CYA for him while he learns.
They overpaid b/c they probably felt that Sanheim's development into an elite defenseman was a priority going forward.

 

[deadhead]

The hope is that the new coaching staff doesn’t sabotage this club and also chooses to play the more superior players even if they are (gasp) inexperienced.

Jake will do as he always has. Truly help the team win more often than naught.

You're confusing "talent" with "superior play."

Young players are often highly talented, but exhibit erratic play because they lack experience (and in some cases, hockey IQ commiserate with their raw skills).

One reason HCs play less talented veterans is they provide more consistent play.
And since this is done by the top HCs, there's probably something there more than just "dinosaur thinking."

It may often a chemistry issue, play a talented young player with experienced veterans and you may get better play out of him than if he's with two other clueless young players where they reinforce each others' mistakes.

AV's biggest challenge will be to work in his young players over the next couple years in a way that maximizes their on ice play and minimizes game killing gaffes.

 

[Beef Invictus]

It’s so damn weird to me that so many people could never see Gudas’ value. He’s the type you would think would get overrated by people using the logic often set forth in seeing value in his replacements.

Yeah. If it had been Gudas for Braun I'd have been aggressively baffled, but Niskanen at least brings things Gudas doesn't. I like that he can set up forwards for scoring chances with passes for instance, instead of just flinging at the net.

Gudas in division isn't ideal though.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

And it's Sanheim's biggest weakness, almost as bad as Hagg.

I’ll even point you to Sanheim’s real weakness so far (defending Zone Entries), as my goal is not to convince you of anything, but rather to give an accurate overall picture that just so happens to be overwhelmingly positive.

Flyers trade deadline (Flyers claim J. Oduya off waivers; lose Alt to Colorado)

Yep. I've been saying it since at least February 2018. It's ok to acknowledge players have weaknesses and still insist the overall package is massively positive.

I like that he can set up forwards for scoring chances with passes for instance, instead of just flinging at the net.

Gudas is a turret. He's my go-to as a comparable for that extreme end of Defenseman Shot Charts.

 

[deadhead]

Gudas for Braun would have made perfect sense, Braun is a better skater, both are offensively challenged, Braun has far more playoff experience and experience in general and is the smarter defender.

The reason for that trade would have been to pair Sanheim with Braun in a top 4 role for one year, since no one really sees Gudas as a top 4 defenseman, while Braun has been one for almost a decade. Gudas is 3 years younger, but both defensemen have one year left on their contracts.

Gudas has better metrics, but Braun has gotten tougher matchups and would be the better mentor.
But it would be less about the better player than the better fit.
To me, the organizational priority is building a defense around Provorov, Sanheim, Myers and York.
This of course can change for various reasons, Provorov's contract, Myers can't stay healthy, etc.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Flyers trade deadline (Flyers claim J. Oduya off waivers; lose Alt to Colorado)

Yep. I've been saying it since at least February 2018. It's ok to acknowledge players have weaknesses and still insist the overall package is massively positive.



Gudas is a turret. He's my go-to as a comparable for that extreme end of Defenseman Shot Charts.

My favorite part of the Gudas Turret is how often he has room to at least skate a little closer and he doesn't. That shot is open and he's making it happen goddamnit, who cares if the goalie can see it coming all the way from literally the blue line.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Oh God, I forgot Oduya was here. Thanks for reminding me. Ugh.

 

[Striiker]

My favorite part of the Gudas Turret is how often he has room to at least skate a little closer and he doesn't. That shot is open and he's making it happen goddamnit, who cares if the goalie can see it coming all the way from literally the blue line.

Which makes it surprising that Hakstol didn't like him more...

Hits, doesn't have much offense to his game, and shoots the puck from the point as soon as he touches it in the offensive zone.... sounds like Haks dream player, except for how he actually played well.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Which makes it surprising that Hakstol didn't like him more...

Hits, doesn't have much offense to his game, and shoots the puck from the point as soon as he touches it in the offensive zone.... sounds like Haks dream player, except for how he actually played well.

Hak was scared shitless to be a man down is only explanation or might have to do with his personality as gudas seems to be one of the more jovial types?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Del Zotto - Gudas was his go to pair at one point before Provorov arrived. Gudas started the season as a healthy scratch though. First impressions I guess. He refused to play Provy and Gudas together.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Hot take.

Gudas is going to get a pretty decent contract after next season.

 

[CapnZin]

Gudas in division isn't ideal though.

A way I can see it being a net positive is if Gudas makes an idiotic play against us and gets sent to the box.

Same with him throwing his weight around against the newfound Rangers and Devils. Hell, even the Pens too. That’ll be a fun series to watch now.

 

[TCTC]

I think the days of Gudas being physical are over. He knows his next suspension likely will be 20+ games. He isn't that stupid.

 

[Magua]

Gudas was only 3rd in the league in hits for defensemen.

But when our 7th defenseman led the league in hits*, he became expendable.


*late bumps

 

[deadhead]

But I thought hits only mattered to hockey dinosaurs?

Gudas was a more effective "hitter" than Hagg, but he's really not that big or strong, good at timing hits and setting people up, but not a people mover (especially since he has to be careful with crosschecking as a ref favorite).

 

[Striiker]

Gudas was only 3rd in the league in hits for defensemen.

But when our 7th defenseman led the league in hits*, he became expendable.


*late bumps

This is such an important point too.

Gudas actually hit people... and you could tell there were times when players either hesitated near him or avoided where he was.

Hagg did his little late bumps, which accumulate on the score-sheet but never do a damn thing on the ice.

 

[Jettany]

I think the days of Gudas being physical are over. He knows his next suspension likely will be 20+ games. He isn't that stupid.

 

[Jettany]

I think the days of Gudas being physical are over. He knows his next suspension likely will be 20+ games. He isn't that stupid.

Not wearing a flyer jersey any longer no chance he gets a long suspension. None.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

 

[Striiker]

That would be indefensibly stupid.

There’s no way anyone could be that dumb.

 

[deadhead]

Meh, much ado about nothing.

8 locks in the top 9: G, Couts, Voracek, JVR, Hayes, TK, Lindblom, Patrick
4 bottom six spots: Laughton, Pitlick and Raffl are locks for three of them
so we're talking ONE bottom six spot, and 1-2 "pressbox seats."
AV will probably be moving pieces around between the 3rd and 4th lines TO START THE SEASON.

NAK, Andreoff, Farabee, Frost, but the two kids only stay if they're going to play on the 3rd line. NAK and Andreoff can be stashed in the pressbox, same with Gabriel.

Odds are Farabee, Frost start in LHV with Ratcliffe, and 2nd year forwards Rubtsov, Kase, Vorobyev, Twarynski and Bunnaman.
That's 8 forwards who could force a promotion by their play in LHV (Sushko, Strome are unlikely candidates for callups).

The lineup on October 1 is unlikely to be the same as January 1 or the day after the TDL.
If the kids force promotions, Fletcher will probably move one or two veterans before the TDL just to make room.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Bill is always extremely conservative in his roster prognostications. The writing is on the wall that Farabee is making this team. They convinced him to leave college; he's gotten bigger; he just played great in an international tournament. He's everything you want in a player: smart, skilled, responsible. But he has a cold-blooded, cutthroat competitiveness that is rare and that this team needs. Fletcher knows it.