Speculation: 2019-20 Roster, Cap, Trade Discussion (MOD WARNING POST #542)

[Paul4587]

Well, at least one positive is we won't have to protect him (ED) if comes down to it. Assuming of course, Bob doesn't offer up another asset to not pick him.

Cam will probably have a 20 game stretch at the end of the season before the ED where he looks incredible that will convince Murray not to expose him. Bob seems to be highly influenced and reactionary to small sample sizes.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Rumor has it Bob wouldn't even ask him to waive. That was bad business decision #1. We could have bought him if Bob was willing to. It wouldn't have taken much to acquire an eligible D man if we knew we would buy out KB. But Bob wouldn't do that either. Bad business decision #2.

Yes, that would have still required us to make a deal and do some juggling. But it would have solved one big problem. All of this was a known before the draft. None of this is in hindsight. Bob really blew it on the KB ED situation. He just took the lazy way out by giving up Theo.

I am lost. David noted that Bxa's contract was given out before VGK was even established. That's the scope you're omitting. We go from having great depth at defense to "oh no, we have to protect only a selected few" years later.

VGK and the league knew that VGK would be poaching the Ducks' defensemen pipeline. It wasn't a hidden fact. VGK twitter even trolled the Ducks about it.

Yet you're playing this "what if" scenario. We traded away Vatanen for a center b/c we got hit with a vast amount of injuries down the center. Who's to say we wouldn't have traded Theo for a center? We'd be in the exact position. But it's the VGK expansion draft that took Theo away, we didn't give it away. The NHL forced the Ducks to give away a top defensive talent. Now, the NHL will force the Ducks to give up another top talent from our pipeline in a couple of years.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

It was also widely reported that GMGM essentially cut off all trades before the draft between all the other teams. And even if we had acquired another D we'd still need to make a deal to protect the 4th of Vatanen or Manson. Does GMGM even do that deal if we gone and made it harder for him to get a good player from us? Then what happens? We still have Stoner AND another scrub D while losing Vatanen in the expansion draft? How is that a better result?

Well, none of this had to be a last minute decision. And Vegas had no control over us making a hockey trade with other teams if we were'n already committed to them. Sure, once Bob rolled over there were restrictions we and others had to live up to. But it never had to get to that point if Bob had been more proactive with KB. Refusing to even ask him to waive and then not even considering a buyout put us in hole we didn't have to be in. That's all on Bob, not on Vegas. Bob is not a proactive guy, he's very reactive. And that's the biggest thing that bit us in the butt, a failure to plan better.

 

[Paul4587]

It was also widely reported that GMGM essentially cut off all trades before the draft between all the other teams. And even if we had acquired another D we'd still need to make a deal to protect the 4th of Vatanen or Manson. Does GMGM even do that deal if we gone and made it harder for him to get a good player from us? Then what happens? We still have Stoner AND another scrub D while losing Vatanen in the expansion draft? How is that a better result?

There were rumors that we started talking to NJ about a Henrique for Vatanen that offseason, if he had of been able to pull the trigger then instead of November then we could have pulled everything off.

And even if that’s not possible I think we could have handled things better - we have essentially made the following moves on our blueline since the ED

Theodore
Vatanen
Montour

For

Not having to pay Stoner $3.5M over one season he didn’t play in anyway.
Henrique
Guhle
A low 1st

Even with the ED circumstances factored in that’s a pretty bad return. Hell in hindsight it looks bad that he chose to pick Theodore over Montour to be the sacrificial piece to Vegas. I know hindsight is 20/20 but it’s a GMs job to project how good players will be and Theodore has turned out to be a lot better than Monty.

 

[DavidBL]

Well, none of this had to be a last minute decision. And Vegas had no control over us making a hockey trade with other teams if we were'n already committed to them. Sure, once Bob rolled over there were restrictions we and others had to live up to. But it never had to get to that point if Bob had been more proactive with KB. Refusing to even ask him to waive and then not even considering a buyout put us in hole we didn't have to be in. That's all on Bob, not on Vegas. Bob is not a proactive guy, he's very reactive. And that's the biggest thing that bit us in the butt, a failure to plan better.

I actually tend to agree that Bob is more reactive but why would he make trades and mess with his team during the season when they felt they could compete for a cup? They obviously felt that the playoffs were more important so he didn't mess with the team during the year. Not to mention we have nonidea if those trades were even available then and you still risk the same outcome.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I am lost. David noted that Bxa's contract was given out before VGK was even established. That's the scope you're omitting. We go from having great depth at defense to "oh no, we have to protect only a selected few" years later.

VGK and the league knew that VGK would be poaching the Ducks' defensemen pipeline. It wasn't a hidden fact. VGK twitter even trolled the Ducks about it.

Yet you're playing this "what if" scenario. We traded away Vatanen for a center b/c we got hit with a vast amount of injuries down the center. Who's to say we wouldn't have traded Theo for a center? We'd be in the exact position. But it's the VGK expansion draft that took Theo away, we didn't give it away. The NHL forced the Ducks to give away a top defensive talent. Now, the NHL will force the Ducks to give up another top talent from our pipeline in a couple of years.

I'm not playing "what if". I'm not even blaming Bob for originally giving KB the NMC. It's irrelevant to my point. He had it and we could have asked him to waive or buy him out but we didn't do either. The decision could have been made way early in the year. And yes another deal would have had to be made earlier too. Maybe Sami, maybe Theo, or who knows. But none of my point is made with hindsight. That's exactly the point I'm making. It didn't have to get to where it did. We didn't just have to give Theo away to fix our problem. We just needed to be proactive.

You're the one playing "what if" based on hindsight by bringing up the Sami trade and the whys/hows of it. None of that matters to my point.

Bottom line is we gave away Theo so we didn't have to hurt KB's feelings and make some trade earlier in the season. And yes we got cap relief from Stoner. But if that was the driving reason for giving up Theo I'd still say it extremely poor asset management.

 

[DavidBL]

There were rumors that we started talking to NJ about a Henrique for Vatanen that offseason, if he had of been able to pull the trigger then instead of November then we could have pulled everything off.

And even if that’s not possible I think we could have handled things better - we have essentially made the following moves on our blueline since the ED

Theodore
Vatanen
Montour

For

Not having to pay Stoner $3.5M over one season he didn’t play in anyway.
Henrique
Guhle
A low 1st

Even with the ED circumstances factored in that’s a pretty bad return. Hell in hindsight it looks bad that he chose to pick Theodore over Montour to be the sacrificial piece to Vegas. I know hindsight is 20/20 but it’s a GMs job to project how good players will be and Theodore has turned out to be a lot better than Monty.

You're also assuming that NJ would/could nake that trade pre-expansion draft. Not to mention Vata was hurt at the time. Its very conceivable that NJ wanted to wait to see how he recovered.
As for the moves we have essentially moved a 4th round pick and second and a low first for movong Stoners contract a 3rd a 2nd and a low 1st. Now obviously that's an over simplification but the moves are not bad in a vacuum and we dont know what we have in Guhle yet. I'll reserve judgment on the Montour trade.
As for Montour vs Theo, I actually dont think Theo is any better than Monty as you suggest. Monty has done just about as much on lesser teams.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I actually tend to agree that Bob is more reactive but why would he make trades and mess with his team during the season when they felt they could compete for a cup? They obviously felt that the playoffs were more important so he didn't mess with the team during the year. Not to mention we have nonidea if those trades were even available then and you still risk the same outcome.

Well, it's not an ideal spot to be in for sure. But you gotta play the cards your dealt. Just offering up Theo to not play was a pretty big price and IMO a lazy way out.

Maybe a better way to express my thought is this...I'd rather be more proactive than reactive given the situation we were in. If Bob takes KB out of the equation one way or the other, makes a deal in-season and 2 years later it doesn't look so good, I can be a lot more forgiving knowing that he did the best he could at the time with the situation he was in. Watching him pretty much do nothing except surrender is less agreeable to me. YMMV.

 

[Deuce22]

Not sure of the motivation, but it sure looks like GMBM had too much emotional investment ( or gave too much power to) the vets in that situation. Bieksa was obviously a terrible defenseman at that stage but was very popular with his teammates. GMBM might have seen Theodore as expendable to not have to upset the vets and the culture of the team. Bad decision for franchise longterm, and poor leadership IMO.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Cam will probably have a 20 game stretch at the end of the season before the ED where he looks incredible that will convince Murray not to expose him. Bob seems to be highly influenced and reactionary to small sample sizes.

Cam could run over Murray's dog & Murray would still be happy with him.
Its like Cam is Jeff Mathis & Hampus is Mike Napoli

 

[AngelDuck]

You're ignoring the fact that GMGM told teams that if they made trades with other teams that affectes the expansion draft negatively that he would not deal with them. BM couldn't make those trades you suggest.

Fine then. Trade Fowler or Vatanen. Problem solved. Again, you don't get rid of a 21 year old top 25 prospect in the league just to get out of Stoner's deal. It didn't make sense

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Btw which player do you all think Murray will end up gift wrapping to Seattle ?
Mahura, Larsson, Comtois, Lundestrom etc
No team gift wrapped players for the Ducks when they entered the league, the Ducks shouldn't be gift wrapping players to expansion teams like that.

 

[DavidBL]

Fine then. Trade Fowler or Vatanen. Problem solved. Again, you don't get rid of a 21 year old top 25 prospect in the league just to get out of Stoner's deal. It didn't make sense

Lol now Theo was a top 25 propsect? He was never ranked that high that I recall. Hes not even better than Fowler or Vatanen 2 years later let alone then. You're also still asumming those trades were available before the draft. Based on the fact that we know GMGM put a strangle hold on the market, the safe bet is they weren't .

 

[ADHB]

They didn't even need to actually do any of those things, they just needed to have them lined up to use as a bargaining chip with Vegas. They needed to be able to say, "we can buy out Bieksa, and we have a trade ready to go for Vatanen" if you force our hand. That would have given them a lot more leverage in negotiations with Vegas, and likely allows us to keep Theodore. We would have had to hang on to Stoner probably, but maybe we give them Pettersson instead of Theodore in order to choose someone else. Big difference.

 

[ADHB]

You're ignoring the fact that GMGM told teams that if they made trades with other teams that affectes the expansion draft negatively that he would not deal with them. BM couldn't make those trades you suggest.

That's not what he said at all. He said that once you negotiated YOUR deal with him, you couldn't make any moves that affected the status of the expansion draft. You could do whatever you wanted prior to approaching him for a deal.

 

[Paul4587]

Btw which player do you all think Murray will end up gift wrapping to Seattle ?
Mahura, Larsson, Comtois, Lundestrom etc
No team gift wrapped players for the Ducks when they entered the league, the Ducks shouldn't be gift wrapping players to expansion teams like that.

Comtois I don’t believe is eligible.

As of now I would have our protection list as :

F:
Rakell
Kase
Ritchie
Terry
Jones
Steel
Lundestrom

Exposed: Silfverberg, Sprong, Henrique, Sherwood

UFAs: Getzlaf and Perry

D:
Manson
Fowler
Lindholm

Exposed: Guhle, Larsson, Mahura

A lot will change between now and then but there’s no chance we don’t lose a good player. I didn’t realise how many good players we would have to expose until I looked at it now. You would hope Seattle would take Henrique’s contract off our hands but when there are younger options with potential there I think that’s wishful thinking.

 

[AngelDuck]

Lol now Theo was a top 25 propsect? He was never ranked that high that I recall. Hes not even better than Fowler or Vatanen 2 years later let alone then. You're also still asumming those trades were available before the draft. Based on the fact that we know GMGM put a strangle hold on the market, the safe bet is they weren't .

I remember him consistently being ranked top 30. Too busy to look it up right now

 

[la patineuse]

It looks like a lot of people here have 20/20 hindsight. Not many people here were bemoaning having to sacrifice Theodore when the Ducks would have had to expose one of Vatanen, Lindholm, Fowler or Manson regardless of whether or not BM was an idiot for not buying out Bieksa, which he should have.

You can count me as one of the few people here who want Murray gone for a lot of bone-headed management of the Ducks assets and dumpster signings on top of hiring Carlyle in the first place and then refusing to fire him.

 

[The Duck Knight]

The mistake Murray made was the Bieksa NMC situation plus not moving Vats before the draft. Then you could have just simply protected Fowler/Manson/Lindholm. I don't have any issue with Theo being the price that was paid for Murray's mistake of the choices that were available to us. There is zero chance he'd be the same player with the Ducks as he is with the Knights. They quite simply don't play an aggressive enough offensive system to utilize his strengths.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Comtois I don’t believe is eligible.

As of now I would have our protection list as :

F:
Rakell
Kase
Ritchie
Terry
Jones
Steel
Lundestrom

Exposed: Silfverberg, Sprong, Henrique, Sherwood

UFAs: Getzlaf and Perry

D:
Manson
Fowler
Lindholm

Exposed: Guhle, Larsson, Mahura

A lot will change between now and then but there’s no chance we don’t lose a good player. I didn’t realise how many good players we would have to expose until I looked at it now. You would hope Seattle would take Henrique’s contract off our hands but when there are younger options with potential there I think that’s wishful thinking.

Yeah true, i meant gift wrap as in Murray trading them a player to not pick a certain player.
I suspect he'll do that kind of trade again but this time there won't be a bieska situation.

 

[GhostOfWildWing]

Bieksa situation was 100% irrelevant as it played out. Why bash him for not asking him to waive when he didn't reach the point where it mattered? Do yo know for a fact he wouldn't have if things played out differently and he moved Vats early ? No, you don't.

It feels like he wanted to keep his Top4 together, so Theodore was the sacrifice (with the bonus of ditching Stoner).

If not for the crazy injuries triggering the acquisition of Henrique, and them likely thinking Montour could replace Vats, for all we know, Vatanen could still be on Anaheim right now.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

There were rumors that we started talking to NJ about a Henrique for Vatanen that offseason, if he had of been able to pull the trigger then instead of November then we could have pulled everything off.

And even if that’s not possible I think we could have handled things better - we have essentially made the following moves on our blueline since the ED

Theodore
Vatanen
Montour

For

Not having to pay Stoner $3.5M over one season he didn’t play in anyway.
Henrique
Guhle
A low 1st

Even with the ED circumstances factored in that’s a pretty bad return. Hell in hindsight it looks bad that he chose to pick Theodore over Montour to be the sacrificial piece to Vegas. I know hindsight is 20/20 but it’s a GMs job to project how good players will be and Theodore has turned out to be a lot better than Monty.

That return is horrible. The Theodore situation could have been avoided. We went from incredible depth on the skill side to almost none quickly

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Bieksa situation was 100% irrelevant as it played out. Why bash him for not asking him to waive when he didn't reach the point where it mattered? Do yo know for a fact he wouldn't have if things played out differently and he moved Vats early ? No, you don't.

It feels like he wanted to keep his Top4 together, so Theodore was the sacrifice (with the bonus of ditching Stoner).

If not for the crazy injuries triggering the acquisition of Henrique, and them likely thinking Montour could replace Vats, for all we know, Vatanen could still be on Anaheim right now.

being able to protect Manson or Vatanen would have made a big difference in approaching the ED

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Imagine
Lindholm Montour
Theodore Manson
Larsson/Mahura/Dotchin/Guhle


Theodore would be a good fit in our top 4 with Lindholm being the shut down guy. I imagine Montour would still be gone, but maybe we would have moved fowler for a RHD

 

[JohnnyDrama]

Yea if we’re going back to the time of the expansion draft I’m pretty sure almost everyone was in consensus that what we lost was not as bad as losing Vatanen and certainly not as bad as losing Fowler. It’s easy now to say he could’ve just traded them, what if there was no deal to be made because teams were worrying about their own expansion lists or the value wasn’t good enough. At the time Theodore had question marks, and Fowler is still the better defenseman by a mile. Vatanen may be closer now. Not buying out Bieksa on the other hand was completely idiotic