Prospect Info: 2019-20 Oilers Prospect Thread II

[gordonhught]

"A lot of what was true of Bouchard’s game two years ago remains true now." - which is EXACTLY how I view him. The warts are still there and he definitely is an elite passer, has an knack for getting pucks on net, but is still kinda lead-footed. Bouchard will put up points in any league but he'll get burned for goals against with fast/strong forwards on the rush.

This was the writer's assessment in 2018

• Low-tempo player who does most of his creation when the game slows down in the offensive zone.
• Heavy-footed, below-average skater.
• Quietly productive, producing at an elite rate without ever really grabbing your attention with his skill set.
• Doesn’t force anything offensively, most often making the available play.
• Excellent outlet and seam passer.
• Not a dominant puck carrier.
• Can take too long to make his decisions.
• Often looks lethargic and lackadaisical — too stationary in his own zone, too often gliding and standing still when the play called for activity.
• Volume shot creator who can release from a wind-up slap shot or a snap-shot, both of which he keeps low and expertly places through traffic.
• Head always up.
• Not shy to join the play, despite lacking foot speed.

So like Cody Franson but a bit better in the offensive zone?

 

[Tobias Kahun]

So like Cody Franson but a bit better in the offensive zone?

Bouchard is miles better than Franson.

 

[DropTheGloves]

so out of 10 players who have finished college there have been 3 NHL regulars. Considering where those picks were made having 30% of them be NHL regulars is a pretty good percentage.

Just curious why your cut-off was "finished college"- some of those were Jr. A and lower.

Don't be so quick to discount Kemp and Kesselring. For whatever reason(s) we haven't drafted a lot of American players. Maybe some of that is that they aren't used to Western Canadian Prairie living? We've had some key Americans over the years in Weight, Guerin, Grier and Marchant. Sadly the best of them moved on rather quickly. Maybe for that reason alone we are apprehensive to draft Americans vs. Canadians, Swedes and Finns?

Yeah, certainly could be I guess. Pronger, though Canadian, famously also demanded out because of his American spouse. I also think the Nordic players find it more like home so are content to hang around versus say someone born in Florida or Cali.

I agree that a bunch of these picks were pretty bad. I recall many a person on HFOil going "WTF" on several of these picks when they were made given other seemingly better, safer, higher upside prospects still being on the board.

Jason Gregor recently had this good breakdown of NHL drafting since 1969 for reference over at OilersNation:
Has NHL Drafting Improved?

I did the math on the percentage of picks from 2006-2015 for rounds 2-3 and rounds 4+ that play 200+ games. For rounds 2-3 its 27%, while for round 4+ its 12%. So essentially that means every two years on average you should be drafting one 200+ game player in rounds 2-3 (4 picks x 27%) and one 200+ game player in rounds 4-7 (8 picks x 12%).

So given those numbers let's look at who all the Oilers have drafted since 2006 (not just Americans) in rounds 2-7 who have played 200+ games:
Edmonton Oilers Draft History at hockeydb.com

2006 - (2) Jeff Petry - GP: 680
2007 -
2008 -
2009 - (2) Anton Lander - GP: 215
2010 - (2) Tyler Pitlick - GP: 248
2010 - (2) Martin Marincin - GP: 227
2011 - (4) Tobias Rieder - GP: 434
2012 - (3) Jujhar Khaira - GP: 218
2012 - (4) Erik Gustafsson - GP: 221
2013 -
2014 -
2015 - (4) Caleb Jones - GP: 60
2015 - (5) Ethan Bear - GP: 89
2015 - (6) John Marino - GP: 56

So the Oilers had 18 2nd/3rd rounders between 2006 and 2015 and went 5/18 = 27.7%. That's pretty much bang on average. They also had 42 4th - 7th rounders and if we assume Jones, Bear and Marino will play 200+ then that's 5/42 = 11.9%. This is also average. However, if we omit 2015 then between 2006 - 2014 the Oilers went a woeful 2/38 = 5.2% in rounds 4-7, and of those 2, most of those games were played for other teams. In fact 55.6% (1,361/2,448) of the GP shown above were played for teams other than the Oilers which obviously detracts from the positive impact of the drafting performance as well.

So the Oilers have actually done okay overall drafting out of the US given most of the players picked out of the US were drafted in rounds 4-7, they've just been bad at getting much out of the the guys who have turned into players. Petry and Pitlick's best years have been played for other teams, while Marino didn't sign with the Oilers which sucked.

Interesting, thanks. I agree that a lack of proper asset development/management once they hit the pros exacerbates our struggles. To think we could lose Jones too in the ED...

 

[nabob]

Just curious why your cut-off was "finished college"- some of those were Jr. A and lower.



Yeah, certainly could be I guess. Pronger, though Canadian, famously also demanded out because of his American spouse. I also think the Nordic players find it more like home so are content to hang around versus say someone born in Florida or Cali.



Interesting, thanks. I agree that a lack of proper asset development/management once they hit the pros exacerbates our struggles. To think we could lose Jones too in the ED...

Because guys like Kemp and Kesselring still have a pretty decent chance to play in the NHL but have yet to finish College. You can’t judge a player as a bust or a success at the NHL level if they haven’t finished college yet...

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Maxim Beryozkin — #72 in white, shown below — got his 2nd assist of the season in his 12th KHL game. Unfortunately, Eddie Pasquale got the start over Ilya Konovalov once again and recorded yet another shutout.



Philip Broberg plays his 11th game of the season at noon today.

 

[DropTheGloves]

Maxim Beryozkin — #72 in white, shown below — got his 2nd assist of the season in his 12th KHL game. Unfortunately, Eddie Pasquale got the start over Ilya Konovalov once again and recorded yet another shutout.

Nice quick pass but even more impressed with how well he set the screen and then timed it just right to get out of the way of the shot. Would be nice if he turned into a good middle six support winger like Burakovsky.

 

[North]

Maxim Beryozkin — #72 in white, shown below — got his 2nd assist of the season in his 12th KHL game. Unfortunately, Eddie Pasquale got the start over Ilya Konovalov once again and recorded yet another shutout.



Philip Broberg plays his 11th game of the season at noon today.

Sucks that Pasquale has won the job considering Konovalov played well but for some reason in the KHL Pasquale is insanely good.

I wish they would trade Konovalov to a team that will play him.

Beryozkin is looking like a sneaky good pick.

 

[TheGhost]

Maxim Beryozkin — #72 in white, shown below — got his 2nd assist of the season in his 12th KHL game. Unfortunately, Eddie Pasquale got the start over Ilya Konovalov once again and recorded yet another shutout.



Philip Broberg plays his 11th game of the season at noon today.

Also worth noting, not sure who that dman that took the shot is, but that was incredible deception on the release, went on the complete opposite side of what the goalie was anticipating

 

[McTonyBrar]

How did Broberg do today??

 

[Senor Catface]

It's a lower league, but Lavoie is 1 goal away from the league lead in goals.

 

[DropTheGloves]

How did Broberg do today??

No points, 4 shots, -1 rating in a 3-2 OT loss. Played the third most minutes of any Skelleftea defender.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Ilya Konovalov made his first start in a while and made 22 saves on 23 shots in a 1-0 loss.

Evan Bouchard recorded 3 shots in a 4-0 loss. He also added another 6 PIMs to his total, taking 3 minor penalties (roughing, cross-checking, interference). Bouchard leads the entire HockeyAllsvenskan with 54 PIMs, with the next highest being 31.

Raphael Lavoie had 3 shots in a 4-3 loss. Offensively, he's had a great start to the season, leading his team in goals (5) and points (7). I haven't watched him play recently, but according to TheOilKnight on twitter, he's had some issues regarding work-ethic and defensive play. Below are some of his highlights through his first 8 games in the HockeyAllsvenskan.



Philip Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov, and Maxim Denezhkin play today.

 

[Oilception]

Does Bouchard have some major penalties to increase his total? or is he taking minor penalties like crazy?

 

[Llamamoto]

Does Bouchard have some major penalties to increase his total? or is he taking minor penalties like crazy?

A combination of both.

He was called for a game misconduct and a couple of majors, but his minor penalty totals have also been pretty crazy.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

A combination of both.

He was called for a game misconduct and a couple of majors, but his minor penalty totals have also been pretty crazy.

I don’t think he has any majors? He does have 20 minutes for a misconduct though.

 

[Giggleplex]

Bouch gooning it up

 

[McTonyBrar]

Ilya Konovalov made his first start in a while and made 22 saves on 23 shots in a 1-0 loss.

Evan Bouchard recorded 3 shots in a 4-0 loss. He also added another 6 PIMs to his total, taking 3 minor penalties (roughing, cross-checking, interference). Bouchard leads the entire HockeyAllsvenskan with 54 PIMs, with the next highest being 31.

Raphael Lavoie had 3 shots in a 4-3 loss. Offensively, he's had a great start to the season, leading his team in goals (5) and points (7). I haven't watched him play recently, but according to TheOilKnight on twitter, he's had some issues regarding work-ethic and defensive play. Below are some of his highlights through his first 8 games in the HockeyAllsvenskan.



Philip Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov, and Maxim Denezhkin play today.

Any updates on these 3?

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Any updates on these 3?

^ Here's Sammy deliverin' a whammy.

 

[Fourier]

^ Here's Sammy deliverin' a whammy.

Isn't that Slepyshev who just made that great play on the goal?

 

[McDNicks17]

Isn't that Slepyshev who just made that great play on the goal?

Yup. Slepyshev with the assist and Mario Kempe with the goal.

 

[Zaddy]

Lavoie reminds me of Benoit Pouliot. Has the skillset to be a top player but not the commitment and work ethic. Type of guy that wears out his welcome pretty fast.

 

[Senor Catface]

It's not unusual for junior kids to suddenly realize their bad habits no longer work in pro hockey.

Lavoie scored 58 goals in 78 games since the start of those playoffs. Something obviously clicked offensively for him. Let's wait to see if something clicks defensively before creating a narrative of work ethic mostly based on one guy's twitter post.

 

[OiledUp]

As an offensive player, really the only somewhat consistent threat they have, on a struggling team you're bound to have some iffy moments defensively. Doesn't mean there aren't things to work on, the move from juniors to pro hockey can certainly be a rude awakening for a lot if players, but it's far too soon to tag him with the lazy defensive liability tag just yet. I know most people understand that, problem is that once someone gets that tag it can be difficult to shake since there are always situations to shine a light on, especially for the not overly agile big skating stride guys. Hard to look busy at that size.

 

[neelynugs]

^ Here's Sammy deliverin' a whammy.

any plans to do a top 20 prospect vote?

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

any plans to do a top 20 prospect vote?

@Llamamoto has been doing one over the past few weeks, we're on our 15th poll right now. The current results are:

1. Philip Broberg - LD - 57%
2. Evan Bouchard - RD
3. Dylan Holloway - C/LW - 53%
4. Dmitri Samorukov - LD - 73%
5. Tyler Benson - LW - 38%
6. Raphael Lavoie - C/RW - 48%
7. Ryan McLeod - C/LW - 63%
8. Ilya Konovalov - G - 46%
9. William Lagesson - LD - 40%
10. Tyler Tullio - C/RW - 42%
11. Filip Berglund - RD - 32%
12. Carter Savoie - LW - 57%
13. Olivier Rodrigue - G
14. Kirill Maksimov - RW - 31%
15. ?