Prospect Info: 2019-20 Oilers Prospect Thread II

[780il]

Hey guys,

I know this might sound strange but I think the Oilers have done well drafting D and that is a strength of the team now as they have (in no order): Bouchard, Broberg, Samaroukov, Berglund, Jones, etc. But what about our NCAA players such as Mike Kesselring, Phil Kemp, Mathew Cairns. Are these guys legit prospects and can help bottom pairing or can we write them off. Also curious about other guys such as: BrindAmour, Mazura, Safin (had a good year in ECHL) and Rasanen.

Kesselring and Kemp are legit prospects. Cairns is probably a write off at this point.
On the other hand, Mazura and Rasanen have some potential, but Brindamour and Safin aren’t gonna do much.

 

[DropTheGloves]

Hey guys,

I know this might sound strange but I think the Oilers have done well drafting D and that is a strength of the team now as they have (in no order): Bouchard, Broberg, Samaroukov, Berglund, Jones, etc. But what about our NCAA players such as Mike Kesselring, Phil Kemp, Mathew Cairns. Are these guys legit prospects and can help bottom pairing or can we write them off. Also curious about other guys such as: BrindAmour, Mazura, Safin (had a good year in ECHL) and Rasanen.

Whoever scouts the US for us does a pretty underwhelming job IMO. I still have hope for Kemp as a bottom pairing defensive specialist, but Kesselring, Cairns, McPhee, and Brind’Amour are nothing players. I’m not sure any of them even become regulars in the AHL. I’m hoping whoever championed those picks was replaced when Holland came aboard.

 

[ImmuneEH]

Hey guys,

I know this might sound strange but I think the Oilers have done well drafting D and that is a strength of the team now as they have (in no order): Bouchard, Broberg, Samaroukov, Berglund, Jones, etc. But what about our NCAA players such as Mike Kesselring, Phil Kemp, Mathew Cairns. Are these guys legit prospects and can help bottom pairing or can we write them off. Also curious about other guys such as: BrindAmour, Mazura, Safin (had a good year in ECHL) and Rasanen.

Kesselring & Kemp have shots. Kemp & Rasanen in very specific, limited roles. Mazura it's too early to say, the others (Cairns, BrindAmour, Safin are longggg shots).

 

[snipes]

Kesselring & Kemp have shots. Kemp & Rasanen in very specific, limited roles. Mazura it's too early to say, the others (Cairns, BrindAmour, Safin are longggg shots).

Kemp is a safe bet to be a bottom pairing defensive defenceman who can play heavy defensive zone matchups. Good size to him as well.

He’s been a captain of the USNTDP and he’s the captain at Yale this year. So he’s a very smart kid obviously with some good leadership skills.

We better not give up on Kemp it would be something we’d regret down the road. He’ll need some AHL seasoning but he’s in my opinion a player who should be an NHLer some point.

 

[bellagiobob]

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Whoever scouts the US for us does a pretty underwhelming job IMO. I still have hope for Kemp as a bottom pairing defensive specialist, but Kesselring, Cairns, McPhee, and Brind’Amour are nothing players. I’m not sure any of them even become regulars in the AHL. I’m hoping whoever championed those picks was replaced when Holland came aboard.

Marino? I thought that Brind'Amour was out of the BCHL? Marino, Kesselring and Kemp are all solid picks IMO. McPhee even showed pretty well in his Freshman season IIRC.

 

[belair]

Whoever scouts the US for us does a pretty underwhelming job IMO. I still have hope for Kemp as a bottom pairing defensive specialist, but Kesselring, Cairns, McPhee, and Brind’Amour are nothing players. I’m not sure any of them even become regulars in the AHL. I’m hoping whoever championed those picks was replaced when Holland came aboard.

Brind'Amour was drafted out of the BCHL. Cairns was drafted out of Ontario. I'm not sure there's much out there to discredit the US scouting. There hasn't been a ton of drafting out of that region to begin with.

 

[DropTheGloves]

Marino? I thought that Brind'Amour was out of the BCHL? Marino, Kesselring and Kemp are all solid picks IMO. McPhee even showed pretty well in his Freshman season IIRC.

Brind'Amour was drafted out of the BCHL. Cairns was drafted out of Ontario. I'm not sure there's much out there to discredit the US scouting. There hasn't been a ton of drafting out of that region to begin with.

Brind’Amour didn’t play in the BCHL until after he was drafted. He played a mix of American prep and NTDP in his actual draft year. Cairns is my bad, yes, he was OJHL. I would say getting one serviceable player (who we didn’t see the value in and traded right before becoming a good player) from an entire country is not a good record- especially when it’s our closest neighbour.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Brind’Amour didn’t play in the BCHL until after he was drafted. He played a mix of American prep and NTDP in his actual draft year. Cairns is my bad, yes, he was OJHL. I would say getting one serviceable player (who we didn’t see the value in and traded right before becoming a good player) from an entire country is not a good record- especially when it’s our closest neighbour.

Look at how few of picks there have been, Marino was a clear hit. Kemp played twice for the US WJC team which is significant and Kesselring IMO has the highest potential out of all of them. In the case of Kemo and Kesselring it's too early to make a call one way or another. As I see it we landed 3 solid defensemen out of the US with late round picks.

 

[DropTheGloves]

Look at how few of picks there have been, Marino was a clear hit. Kemp played twice for the US WJC team which is significant and Kesselring IMO has the highest potential out of all of them. In the case of Kemo and Kesselring it's too early to make a call one way or another. As I see it we landed 3 solid defensemen out of the US with late round picks.

Sure, there haven't been a ton of picks from the States. But that should be a red flag too, don't you think? Other teams seem to get productive guys out of the USHL, high school, and college ranks. Our "best" performance though in 15 years was 2005 and 2006, where we took Chorney, Vande Velde, and Petry in back-to-back drafts.

Since then it's looked like this:

Troy Hesketh- Bust. I remember this being a massive reach and lots of complaints even the day of that draft.
Tyler Pitlick- Decent fourth liner, still in the league.
Dillon Simpson- All of 3 NHL games, and debatable he gets even that with a different last name.
John McCarron- Bust.
Joey Laleggia- Bust.
Aidan Muir- See Hesketh.
Zach Nagelvoort- Bust.
Tyler Vesel- Bust.
Caleb Jones- The most promising US prospect we have.
John Marino- I understand he wasn't going to sign but obviously Chiarelli didn't go a good enough job here 1) identifying the talent 2) making sure he felt like he had a chance in our org.
Graham McPhee- I just don't see it, nothing four years out indicates a player.
Skyler Brind'Amour- See above.
Phil Kemp- Sure, could be something yet.
Mike Kesselring- I seem to disagree with everyone here, don't think he pans out.

So in fourteen years, our best hits are Pitlick, Jones, and Marino. That's pretty underwhelming again given it's an entire country with multiple leagues and levels to evaluate.

 

[nabob]

Sure, there haven't been a ton of picks from the States. But that should be a red flag too, don't you think? Other teams seem to get productive guys out of the USHL, high school, and college ranks. Our "best" performance though in 15 years was 2005 and 2006, where we took Chorney, Vande Velde, and Petry in back-to-back drafts.

Since then it's looked like this:

Troy Hesketh- Bust. I remember this being a massive reach and lots of complaints even the day of that draft.
Tyler Pitlick- Decent fourth liner, still in the league.
Dillon Simpson- All of 3 NHL games, and debatable he gets even that with a different last name.
John McCarron- Bust.
Joey Laleggia- Bust.
Aidan Muir- See Hesketh.
Zach Nagelvoort- Bust.
Tyler Vesel- Bust.
Caleb Jones- The most promising US prospect we have.
John Marino- I understand he wasn't going to sign but obviously Chiarelli didn't go a good enough job here 1) identifying the talent 2) making sure he felt like he had a chance in our org.
Graham McPhee- I just don't see it, nothing four years out indicates a player.
Skyler Brind'Amour- See above.
Phil Kemp- Sure, could be something yet.
Mike Kesselring- I seem to disagree with everyone here, don't think he pans out.

So in fourteen years, our best hits are Pitlick, Jones, and Marino. That's pretty underwhelming again given it's an entire country with multiple leagues and levels to evaluate.

so out of 10 players who have finished college there have been 3 NHL regulars. Considering where those picks were made having 30% of them be NHL regulars is a pretty good percentage.

 

[North]

Sure, there haven't been a ton of picks from the States. But that should be a red flag too, don't you think? Other teams seem to get productive guys out of the USHL, high school, and college ranks. Our "best" performance though in 15 years was 2005 and 2006, where we took Chorney, Vande Velde, and Petry in back-to-back drafts.

Since then it's looked like this:

Troy Hesketh- Bust. I remember this being a massive reach and lots of complaints even the day of that draft.
Tyler Pitlick- Decent fourth liner, still in the league.
Dillon Simpson- All of 3 NHL games, and debatable he gets even that with a different last name.
John McCarron- Bust.
Joey Laleggia- Bust.
Aidan Muir- See Hesketh.
Zach Nagelvoort- Bust.
Tyler Vesel- Bust.
Caleb Jones- The most promising US prospect we have.
John Marino- I understand he wasn't going to sign but obviously Chiarelli didn't go a good enough job here 1) identifying the talent 2) making sure he felt like he had a chance in our org.
Graham McPhee- I just don't see it, nothing four years out indicates a player.
Skyler Brind'Amour- See above.
Phil Kemp- Sure, could be something yet.
Mike Kesselring- I seem to disagree with everyone here, don't think he pans out.

So in fourteen years, our best hits are Pitlick, Jones, and Marino. That's pretty underwhelming again given it's an entire country with multiple leagues and levels to evaluate.

Actually with regards to Marino, I forgot who reported it but they said if Chiarelli was still here, Marino would have signed.

In terms of Kesselring, it’s still early to say but a lot of the talk regarding him is positive.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Sure, there haven't been a ton of picks from the States. But that should be a red flag too, don't you think? Other teams seem to get productive guys out of the USHL, high school, and college ranks. Our "best" performance though in 15 years was 2005 and 2006, where we took Chorney, Vande Velde, and Petry in back-to-back drafts.

Since then it's looked like this:

Troy Hesketh- Bust. I remember this being a massive reach and lots of complaints even the day of that draft.
Tyler Pitlick- Decent fourth liner, still in the league.
Dillon Simpson- All of 3 NHL games, and debatable he gets even that with a different last name.
John McCarron- Bust.
Joey Laleggia- Bust.
Aidan Muir- See Hesketh.
Zach Nagelvoort- Bust.
Tyler Vesel- Bust.
Caleb Jones- The most promising US prospect we have.
John Marino- I understand he wasn't going to sign but obviously Chiarelli didn't go a good enough job here 1) identifying the talent 2) making sure he felt like he had a chance in our org.
Graham McPhee- I just don't see it, nothing four years out indicates a player.
Skyler Brind'Amour- See above.
Phil Kemp- Sure, could be something yet.
Mike Kesselring- I seem to disagree with everyone here, don't think he pans out.

So in fourteen years, our best hits are Pitlick, Jones, and Marino. That's pretty underwhelming again given it's an entire country with multiple leagues and levels to evaluate.

Don't be so quick to discount Kemp and Kesselring. For whatever reason(s) we haven't drafted a lot of American players. Maybe some of that is that they aren't used to Western Canadian Prairie living? We've had some key Americans over the years in Weight, Guerin, Grier and Marchant. Sadly the best of them moved on rather quickly. Maybe for that reason alone we are apprehensive to draft Americans vs. Canadians, Swedes and Finns?

 

[North]

Don't be so quick to discount Kemp and Kesselring. For whatever reason(s) we haven't drafted a lot of American players. Maybe some of that is that they aren't used to Western Canadian Prairie living? We've had some key Americans over the years in Weight, Guerin, Grier and Marchant. Sadly the best of them moved on rather quickly. Maybe for that reason alone we are apprehensive to draft Americans vs. Canadians, Swedes and Finns?

I think that’s partly it. In general it seems like most American players want to play in the US and try to make it happen as quick as they can.

 

[BarDownBobo]

Don't be so quick to discount Kemp and Kesselring. For whatever reason(s) we haven't drafted a lot of American players. Maybe some of that is that they aren't used to Western Canadian Prairie living? We've had some key Americans over the years in Weight, Guerin, Grier and Marchant. Sadly the best of them moved on rather quickly. Maybe for that reason alone we are apprehensive to draft Americans vs. Canadians, Swedes and Finns?

I might take some heat for this but I really think there might be something to the new “Russian Factor” being American college bound players. The higher end guys are a different story since they won’t give up millions to stay in school but the middle to late rounders who are going to be there three years anyways are more willing to spend the extra year and get their choice of who to sign with. Plus you see guys like Trouba who wanted to get out of Winnipeg ASAP. Obviously it comes down to a case by case basis but to me I have no problem with the team leaning away from those players. I still think this played a bit of a factor in picking Broberg over Zegras as well, if they believed from interviews he’d leave as soon as he could there’s value to be put in taking Broberg as a longer term piece.

 

[belair]

Scott Wheeler at the Athletic took a really detailed look at Evan Bouchard's game in Sweden today. Behind the paywall unfortunately.

Wheeler: Breaking down Oilers prospect Evan Bouchard's play with Södertälje SK

 

[gordonhught]

Scott Wheeler at the Athletic took a really detailed look at Evan Bouchard's game in Sweden today. Behind the paywall unfortunately.

Wheeler: Breaking down Oilers prospect Evan Bouchard's play with Södertälje SK

What was the gist of his opinion?

 

[MuzzaFuzza]

What was the gist of his opinion?

Was a fairly long article with lots of clips in it but:
- Starts by saying he instantly became one of the league's best players and his team's #1 dman. Hes playing over 4 minutes more per game than his closest teammate.

- Says Bouchard prefers a low, hard slapper from the point. But not so hard that it is out of control, generates a lot of his offense from this. Would like to see him fake shot and look for the pass more often.

- Transition game has greatly improved due to improved skating and comfort carrying the puck. Notes he is clearly generating more power from his stride but still needs to work on his first few steps. (Had a couple clips of some nice rushes but don't know how to link)

- Is even more impressed with his improved comfort level with carrying the puck in the O-zone... "This season, I’ve been particularly impressed by his willingness to attack instead of making the available play when he has been caught flat-footed."

- But defensively his "average skating and ongoing lackadaisicalness" can lead to defensive gaffs or losing his man altogether. Or he is a step behind which leads to him chasing the play a lot of the time. Still needs some work in the defensive zone but his improved skating and puck carrying have helped a little bit already.

It was a pretty good review and one that showed some clear improvements in some areas of his game with room to grow still in other areas. Wheeler ended it by saying he is not a liability in one area anymore and that he thinks he thinks he's ready to make the next step to the NHL. He also had a really good quote at the beginning I thought was pretty accurate:

"To properly evaluate Evan Bouchard is to understand that the bad in his game is noticeable, and the good isn’t."

 

[belair]

What was the gist of his opinion?

That despite being somewhat of a weaker skater and often lethargic, his puck confidence has improved since his draft year. He offers about a dozen visual examples of the points he's making about Bouchard's play in Sweden. Bouchard is using fakes more frequently and can make plays under pressure, giving time for his support to find open space. He notes that he'll probably never be a defenseman that wows you in the same ways a player like Quinn Hughes or Erik Karlsson would, but he's got the tools to be a successful defenseman and he's probably ready for NHL competition today.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

Sure, there haven't been a ton of picks from the States. But that should be a red flag too, don't you think? Other teams seem to get productive guys out of the USHL, high school, and college ranks. Our "best" performance though in 15 years was 2005 and 2006, where we took Chorney, Vande Velde, and Petry in back-to-back drafts.

Since then it's looked like this:

Troy Hesketh- Bust. I remember this being a massive reach and lots of complaints even the day of that draft.
Tyler Pitlick- Decent fourth liner, still in the league.
Dillon Simpson- All of 3 NHL games, and debatable he gets even that with a different last name.
John McCarron- Bust.
Joey Laleggia- Bust.
Aidan Muir- See Hesketh.
Zach Nagelvoort- Bust.
Tyler Vesel- Bust.
Caleb Jones- The most promising US prospect we have.
John Marino- I understand he wasn't going to sign but obviously Chiarelli didn't go a good enough job here 1) identifying the talent 2) making sure he felt like he had a chance in our org.
Graham McPhee- I just don't see it, nothing four years out indicates a player.
Skyler Brind'Amour- See above.
Phil Kemp- Sure, could be something yet.
Mike Kesselring- I seem to disagree with everyone here, don't think he pans out.

So in fourteen years, our best hits are Pitlick, Jones, and Marino. That's pretty underwhelming again given it's an entire country with multiple leagues and levels to evaluate.

I agree that a bunch of these picks were pretty bad. I recall many a person on HFOil going "WTF" on several of these picks when they were made given other seemingly better, safer, higher upside prospects still being on the board.

Jason Gregor recently had this good breakdown of NHL drafting since 1969 for reference over at OilersNation:
Has NHL Drafting Improved?

I did the math on the percentage of picks from 2006-2015 for rounds 2-3 and rounds 4+ that play 200+ games. For rounds 2-3 its 27%, while for round 4+ its 12%. So essentially that means every two years on average you should be drafting one 200+ game player in rounds 2-3 (4 picks x 27%) and one 200+ game player in rounds 4-7 (8 picks x 12%).

So given those numbers let's look at who all the Oilers have drafted since 2006 (not just Americans) in rounds 2-7 who have played 200+ games:
Edmonton Oilers Draft History at hockeydb.com

2006 - (2) Jeff Petry - GP: 680
2007 -
2008 -
2009 - (2) Anton Lander - GP: 215
2010 - (2) Tyler Pitlick - GP: 248
2010 - (2) Martin Marincin - GP: 227
2011 - (4) Tobias Rieder - GP: 434
2012 - (3) Jujhar Khaira - GP: 218
2012 - (4) Erik Gustafsson - GP: 221
2013 -
2014 -
2015 - (4) Caleb Jones - GP: 60
2015 - (5) Ethan Bear - GP: 89
2015 - (6) John Marino - GP: 56

So the Oilers had 18 2nd/3rd rounders between 2006 and 2015 and went 5/18 = 27.7%. That's pretty much bang on average. They also had 42 4th - 7th rounders and if we assume Jones, Bear and Marino will play 200+ then that's 5/42 = 11.9%. This is also average. However, if we omit 2015 then between 2006 - 2014 the Oilers went a woeful 2/38 = 5.2% in rounds 4-7, and of those 2, most of those games were played for other teams. In fact 55.6% (1,361/2,448) of the GP shown above were played for teams other than the Oilers which obviously detracts from the positive impact of the drafting performance as well.

So the Oilers have actually done okay overall drafting out of the US given most of the players picked out of the US were drafted in rounds 4-7, they've just been bad at getting much out of the the guys who have turned into players. Petry and Pitlick's best years have been played for other teams, while Marino didn't sign with the Oilers which sucked.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I think that’s partly it. In general it seems like most American players want to play in the US and try to make it happen as quick as they can.

Agreed.

I might take some heat for this but I really think there might be something to the new “Russian Factor” being American college bound players. The higher end guys are a different story since they won’t give up millions to stay in school but the middle to late rounders who are going to be there three years anyways are more willing to spend the extra year and get their choice of who to sign with. Plus you see guys like Trouba who wanted to get out of Winnipeg ASAP. Obviously it comes down to a case by case basis but to me I have no problem with the team leaning away from those players. I still think this played a bit of a factor in picking Broberg over Zegras as well, if they believed from interviews he’d leave as soon as he could there’s value to be put in taking Broberg as a longer term piece.

Agreed. I don't get it, Canadian women rock and overall Canada is a pretty great place to live IMO. If I were born anywhere in the US other than Hawaii I would have no issue moving to Canada.

 

[voxel]

What was the gist of his opinion?

"A lot of what was true of Bouchard’s game two years ago remains true now." - which is EXACTLY how I view him. The warts are still there and he definitely is an elite passer, has an knack for getting pucks on net, but is still kinda lead-footed. Bouchard will put up points in any league but he'll get burned for goals against with fast/strong forwards on the rush.

This was the writer's assessment in 2018

• Low-tempo player who does most of his creation when the game slows down in the offensive zone.
• Heavy-footed, below-average skater.
• Quietly productive, producing at an elite rate without ever really grabbing your attention with his skill set.
• Doesn’t force anything offensively, most often making the available play.
• Excellent outlet and seam passer.
• Not a dominant puck carrier.
• Can take too long to make his decisions.
• Often looks lethargic and lackadaisical — too stationary in his own zone, too often gliding and standing still when the play called for activity.
• Volume shot creator who can release from a wind-up slap shot or a snap-shot, both of which he keeps low and expertly places through traffic.
• Head always up.
• Not shy to join the play, despite lacking foot speed.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

Was a fairly long article with lots of clips in it but:
- Starts by saying he instantly became one of the league's best players and his team's #1 dman. Hes playing over 4 minutes more per game than his closest teammate.

- Says Bouchard prefers a low, hard slapper from the point. But not so hard that it is out of control, generates a lot of his offense from this. Would like to see him fake shot and look for the pass more often.

- Transition game has greatly improved due to improved skating and comfort carrying the puck. Notes he is clearly generating more power from his stride but still needs to work on his first few steps. (Had a couple clips of some nice rushes but don't know how to link)

- Is even more impressed with his improved comfort level with carrying the puck in the O-zone... "This season, I’ve been particularly impressed by his willingness to attack instead of making the available play when he has been caught flat-footed."

- But defensively his "average skating and ongoing lackadaisicalness" can lead to defensive gaffs or losing his man altogether. Or he is a step behind which leads to him chasing the play a lot of the time. Still needs some work in the defensive zone but his improved skating and puck carrying have helped a little bit already.

It was a pretty good review and one that showed some clear improvements in some areas of his game with room to grow still in other areas. Wheeler ended it by saying he is not a liability in one area anymore and that he thinks he thinks he's ready to make the next step to the NHL. He also had a really good quote at the beginning I thought was pretty accurate:

"To properly evaluate Evan Bouchard is to understand that the bad in his game is noticeable, and the good isn’t."

I've always thought that the good parts of Bouchard's game will translate better at the NHL level because he's got a higher hockey IQ with the puck and when you're playing with better, smarter players you can exploit that higher IQ if you've got the puck skills, which Bouchard does.

That said, the same is unfortunately true as it relates to his defensive game in that his limited mobility and tendency to lose his man/positioning will be exploited by smarter, more skilled NHL players. Hopefully playing with NHLers and working with NHL coaches in the near future will help him dial in that part of his game. If he could start to improve that part of his game more now in Sweden then even better.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

"A lot of what was true of Bouchard’s game two years ago remains true now." - which is EXACTLY how I view him. The warts are still there and he definitely is an elite passer, has an knack for getting pucks on net, but is still kinda lead-footed. Bouchard will put up points in any league but he'll get burned for goals against with fast/strong forwards on the rush.

This was the writer's assessment in 2018

• Low-tempo player who does most of his creation when the game slows down in the offensive zone.
• Heavy-footed, below-average skater.
• Quietly productive, producing at an elite rate without ever really grabbing your attention with his skill set.
• Doesn’t force anything offensively, most often making the available play.
• Excellent outlet and seam passer.
• Not a dominant puck carrier.
• Can take too long to make his decisions.
• Often looks lethargic and lackadaisical — too stationary in his own zone, too often gliding and standing still when the play called for activity.
• Volume shot creator who can release from a wind-up slap shot or a snap-shot, both of which he keeps low and expertly places through traffic.
• Head always up.
• Not shy to join the play, despite lacking foot speed.

His skating is overblown.

 

[Oilhawks]

Really think Bouchard should get reasonable NHL time this year. He's improved and his defensive game isn't going to be perfect. The guy logs tons of minutes wherever he plays and brings more good than bad. Don't think he'll learn much more defensively outside the NHL and there is a lot of value with him practicing and playing with Barrie.

Nurse - Bear
Jones - Barrie
Bouchard - Larsson
extras: Russell, Lagesson

That's what I'd like to see going in to the season. Put Russell in enough to make sure he hits the draft exposure requirement (15 more games?), maybe focusing on putting him in for more heavily defensive games and pairing him with Barrie for those games, something like this then:

Nurse - Bear
Russell - Barrie
Jones - Larsson