Prospect Info: 2019-20 Flyers Prospects - Top 30 SKATERS, #20

[Ghosts Beer]

No, I understand that the likeliness players hit there ceiling vs floor is not equally distributed.

What's the different for me is I dont think Ginnings floor is Hagg. I also dont think his ceiling is one of the best defensive defenceman of the post lock out era.

I think it more likely his floor is AHL shutdown dman and upside is a more effective version of Hagg.

I think one issue we will have is he has already reached the end of his physical development. We shouldn't expect him to add more effective strength or explosiveness. I also dont think he will gain much in the way of puck skills. Any development is going to have to come from his ability to use his current tools effectively, and I dont think he is ever going to be able to learn enough to become Hjalmarsson.

But that's just like my opinion man.

Good post. And, as I am sure you surmised, I get the reference, dude.

Simple difference of opinion.

I think you’re making a mistake considering Ginning at his ceiling now. I see intelligence & skating that is going to keep improving. I think people are wrong on him. He’s made some bad plays, but he’s not a dunce. He’ll play over 500 NHL games.

 

[deadhead]

Ginning won't turn 20 until January, while he's probably stop growing, at 6'4 he'll probably fill out further and add strength the next few years.
He also may improve his skating as he adds strength, depending how he fills out.
He'd still be in the CHL in Canada, instead he'll be in his 3rd SHL season. So he may improve his defensive instincts the next couple years.

 

[TB87]

No, I understand that the likeliness players hit there ceiling vs floor is not equally distributed.

What's the different for me is I dont think Ginnings floor is Hagg. I also dont think his ceiling is one of the best defensive defenceman of the post lock out era.

I think it more likely his floor is AHL shutdown dman and upside is a more effective version of Hagg.

I think one issue we will have is he has already reached the end of his physical development. We shouldn't expect him to add more effective strength or explosiveness. I also dont think he will gain much in the way of puck skills. Any development is going to have to come from his ability to use his current tools effectively, and I dont think he is ever going to be able to learn enough to become Hjalmarsson.

But that's just like my opinion man.

He’s being compared to Hjalmarsson? What?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Swedish defensemen have to get compared to Swedish defensemen. You know the rules. Hagg was once compared to Hjalmarsson back in the day.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

He’s being compared to Hjalmarsson? What?

It was a comp Ghost Beer used.

 

[TB87]

It was a comp Ghost Beer used.

If the goal was to make a pie in the sky comparison...mission accomplished! Reminds of the Cernak comparisons (which are also of the pipe dream variety).

 

[GapToothedWonder]

If the goal was to make a pie in the sky comparison...mission accomplished! Reminds of the Cernak comparisons (which are also of the pipe dream variety).

I'm with you on that.

 

[deadhead]

Well, comparing Kalynuk to MDZ is just as outrageous.

MDZ from age 16-18: 162g 33-120 153; PO 38g 8-31 39
At 19 he was in the NHL, 80g 9-28 37 -20
At 21 he had his best season, 77g 10-31 41 +20; PO 20g 2-8 10 -4
then it was downhill, a bounce back season in Philly at 24, then extended mediocrity.

Strange finish to a promising start.

 

[Rebels57]

Ginnings ceiling is post-ravaged knees Grossmann.

 

[Magua]

So, one player's closest comparable is Mike Ratchuk. Why? Because that's just the first Flyers bust that comes to mind.

The next player has the potential to be Hjalmarsson. Because he's Swedish.

Just wave a flag that says, "Haven't actually seen these players! But let me tell you about them!" (Lot of words for a flag, I admit).

 

[Starat327]

Ginnings ceiling is post-ravaged knees Grossmann.

I dont know if I'm just in a good mood or what, but this board is killing me today.

 

[mja]

People who have actually watched Ginning play: Don't like him as a prospect, he has these specific issues (list specific issues).

People who haven't actually watched Ginning play: He was a 2nd round pick and played big minutes for Sweden. This other prospect the same height and size as Ginning and who was also born in the mid-afternoon on a Thursday on a moderately-warm January day via C-section to a mother who enjoys hiking and communal ice bathing, went on to do x, y, & z, so Ginning will also go on to do x, y, & z.

Me:

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I love Pulp Fiction. Greatest dialogue ever written, IMO. Ginning is the most likely of these players to have an NHL career. And now, little man, I give the watch to you. (Roger Avary wrote that scene, not Tarantino.)

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Aw man I shot Marvin in the face.

 

[mja]

I love Pulp Fiction. Greatest dialogue ever written, IMO. Ginning is the most likely of these players to have an NHL career. And now, little man, I give the watch to you. (Roger Avary wrote that scene, not Tarantino.)

That isn't necessarily the accomplishment you're making it out to be. If he ends up in the NHL but as one of the worst players in the league, that's not a win.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

That isn't necessarily the accomplishment you're making it out to be. If he ends up in the NHL but as one of the worst players in the league, that's not a win.

Ghost beer will argue it is for him and for a 2nd rounder. For us the fans of the team it does nothing to move the needle so isn't in my opinion.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

That isn't necessarily the accomplishment you're making it out to be. If he ends up in the NHL but as one of the worst players in the league, that's not a win.

I'm saying he's a defensible vote at 20. And I think he was a defensible vote at 14. You've got people acting like it's indefensible. That's the overreaction. If you have a defenseman who you think will play in the NHL, he's probably worth a vote in the 14-20 range. Regardless,

 

[dats81]

Why would anyone have to defend themselves or their votes?

It's a poll and most people decide based on personal perception and gut feeling. If you have your own fancy advanced stats based rank system, feel free to elaborate. If you believe in CORSI or Fenwick, try to get and process the data but no need for a poll either because stats don't lie, right?

Some people don't like the A. Ginning pick. We got it.

 

[deadhead]

When you're talking #20, every player is an arbitrary decision.
And when you're talking 18-19 year olds, there's an awful lot of projection involved, especially with big players.
Guys who look good at 18 often flatline, guys who look awkward often develop better coordination and body control as they age (Myers).

Draft history shows #50 isn't exactly a prime pick, it has value, but the odds of playing 200 games is only 26%, 400 games 19%.

 

[orangey]

Ginning will prob be an NHL player, unless he truly handles the puck like Kevin Marshall. I find that hard to believe though considering his prominent role for Sweden. Not really their MO for their D.

If he becomes just adequate with the puck he should be fine as a complimentary defensive defenseman.

Not that I care too much about fan rankings but this one is bizarre. Easily a top 20 guy at worst. Seems biased against his style of play. Which still works in the NHL, btw.

Meanwhile everyone is still hopeful about Morin who is basically the same player with the same flaws but older and hurt a lot. Strange.

 

[TB87]

Ginning will prob be an NHL player, unless he truly handles the puck like Kevin Marshall. I find that hard to believe though considering his prominent role for Sweden. Not really their MO for their D.

If he becomes just adequate with the puck he should be fine as a complimentary defensive defenseman.

Not that I care too much about fan rankings but this one is bizarre. Easily a top 20 guy at worst. Seems biased against his style of play. Which still works in the NHL, btw.

Meanwhile everyone is still hopeful about Morin who is basically the same player with the same flaws but older and hurt a lot. Strange.

I think that the main reason many on this board don’t value Ginning all that highly is: his brain. He’s a slow processor and it shows itself in most every viewing. This is prevalent in the SHL & during international tournaments. In this way specifically he’s eerily similar to Morin.

 

[Curufinwe]

Ginning will prob be an NHL player, unless he truly handles the puck like Kevin Marshall. I find that hard to believe though considering his prominent role for Sweden. Not really their MO for their D.

If he becomes just adequate with the puck he should be fine as a complimentary defensive defenseman.

Not that I care too much about fan rankings but this one is bizarre. Easily a top 20 guy at worst. Seems biased against his style of play. Which still works in the NHL, btw.

Meanwhile everyone is still hopeful about Morin who is basically the same player with the same flaws but older and hurt a lot. Strange.

Ginning is most similar to Hagg, not to Morin.

We don't even know if the Flyers will sign Ginning. He was drafted by the previous regime.

 

[deadhead]

I think that the main reason many on this board don’t value Ginning all that highly is: his brain. He’s a slow processor and it shows itself in most every viewing. This is prevalent in the SHL & during international tournaments. In this way specifically he’s eerily similar to Morin.

Yet people were patient with Morin.
Some players are slower learners, Sanheim struggled initially at every level.
Ginning is 19, if in 3 years he doesn't grasp the game, it's probably hopeless, but right now ???

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Yet people were patient with Morin.

Equating them now is missing the point. At the time of his draft, Morin was talked up by the usual sources as a high upside pick. That lends itself to patience and as we know, draft evaluations are sticky both to fans and organizations.

We can debate how much upside was actually there, but that's why the narrative was different.

I’ve been lower on Morin than concensus for a few years for what it's worth.

 

[TB87]

Equating them now is missing the point. At the time of his draft, Morin was talked up by the usual sources as a high upside pick. That lends itself to patience and as we know, draft evaluations are sticky both to fans and organizations.

We can debate how much upside was actually there, but that's why the narrative was different.

I’ve been lower on Morin than concensus for a few years for what it's worth.

I’m not sure that Morin reads the game all that well and I’m of the belief that that’s the main reason why it’s taken him so long to crack the NHL roster (injuries the past two season notwithstanding). His DZ anticipation in particular is subpar