Prospect Info: 2019-20 Flyers Prospects - Top 30 SKATERS, #20

[Striiker]

Still waiting for a single post saying what Ginning does well.

 

[TB87]

Still waiting for a single post saying what Ginning does well.

He seems to win most of his 50/50 battles

 

[Striiker]

He seems to win most of his 50/50 battles

(I meant from one of the people adamantly defending him, by strictly talking about size and draft position, who we're 99.99999% sure haven't even watched him play )

 

[orangey]

I just think a 19 y/o has a decent chance to improve on whatever deficiencies, like any other teenage prospect, so I'm willing to be a little open minded. I need more a lot more info before I'm going to write him off. Like a few more years worth.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I just think a 19 y/o has a decent chance to improve on whatever deficiencies, like any other teenage prospect, so I'm willing to be a little open minded. I need more a lot more info before I'm going to write him off. Like a few more years worth.

This is blind hope. All skills are not equally likely to be developed in post-draft years. That's the entire problem.

There is a chance Ginning develops X or Y swing skill, but you're betting on him to be an outlier. If someone thinks he is one and has specific reasons for doing so, I have zero problem with that even though I won't agree. Sadly specificity seems to be in short supply in this case.

 

[Curufinwe]

It's not all bad news for Ginning. He's going to finish ahead of Laberge.

 

[Striiker]

This is blind hope. All skills are not equally likely to be developed in post-draft years. That's the entire problem.

There is a chance Ginning develops X or Y swing skill, but you're betting on him to be an outlier. If someone thinks he is one and has specific reasons for doing so, I have zero problem with that even though I won't agree. Sadly specificity seems to be in short supply in this case.

Yeah, expecting a skilled teenager to improve defensively or become more consistent is a reasonable hope.

Expecting someone to develop skills, which they are completely devoid of, isn't...

 

[orangey]

This is blind hope. All skills are not equally likely to be developed in post-draft years. That's the entire problem.

There is a chance Ginning develops X or Y swing skill, but you're betting on him to be an outlier. If someone thinks he is one and has specific reasons for doing so, I have zero problem with that even though I won't agree. Sadly specificity seems to be in short supply in this case.

Being open-minded is not hope. It’s delaying judgement. Of a 19-year-old prospect in this case. I have no reason to write him off as he can in-fact improve. If there were some injuries or setbacks or something more specific than stating certain skills are harder to improve than others, I could see the skepticism, but this is something else and seems a very ridged mindset.

There isn’t only one path to becoming an NHL player and all of them need a LOT of development to have any hope to make it after the top few prospects. It really just needs to play out and see where these guys are in a few years. Especially for the defensemen (and goalies). They take a lot of time in most cases.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I see higher on-ice intelligence in Ginning than Morin (not that he’s mistake-free). Blows my mind that many of those who despise Ginning, to the point of scoffing at voting him at 20, also have long been Morin fans. Talk about cognitive dissonance, especially considering the Flyers wasted an 11th overall pick on Morin, with Domi & Morrissey going the next 2 picks, whereas Ginning was 50th.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Being open-minded is not hope. It’s delaying judgement. Of a 19-year-old prospect in this case. I have no reason to write him off as he can in-fact improve. If there were some injuries or setbacks or something more specific than stating certain skills are harder to improve than others, I could see the skepticism, but this is something else and seems a very ridged mindset.

There isn’t only one path to becoming an NHL player and all of them need a LOT of development to have any hope to make it after the top few prospects. It really just needs to play out and see where these guys are in a few years. Especially for the defensemen (and goalies). They take a lot of time in most cases.

Again, no specifics. Your one tangible point is that he's 19 and that's too young to write anyone off. I agree. However, Defensemen peaking later on the average is something that has not turned out to be true when aging curves were examined at appropriately large scale. If you want the studies, I'm more than happy to provide them.

There's a difference between writing someone off and being skeptical about the level of development required in specific areas to be baseline functional in the NHL. For the record, here are my specific areas for skepticism with Ginning:

• Rushed/inefficient with the puck on his stick.
• Decision making without the puck is not much better.
• Positional awareness is lacking, which compounds the first two problems as the combination of being mentally slow and physically awkward in tight/quick movements stack in the most unflattering way possible.
• He frequently takes poor angles when presented with speed to the outside and lacks the foot speed to make up for it.

We need to account for both how far he needs to come in those areas and how difficult it is to improve in each of them if we're evaluating him as a prospect.

If your point is to just throw your hands up and say you have no idea what any of these guys besides the top 4 will be because everyone is bad at drafting, I'm more than ok with that. The problem is that you've also gone this route:

Ginning will prob be an NHL player, unless he truly handles the puck like Kevin Marshall. I find that hard to believe though considering his prominent role for Sweden. Not really their MO for their D.

Pick one.

 

[Striiker]

You guys better not be writing off my cousin.

He's 19 and he's never played hockey, but 19 is too early to write someone off, so we have to keep an open mind that he can become an NHL defensemen.

 

[TB87]

Being open-minded is not hope. It’s delaying judgement. Of a 19-year-old prospect in this case. I have no reason to write him off as he can in-fact improve. If there were some injuries or setbacks or something more specific than stating certain skills are harder to improve than others, I could see the skepticism, but this is something else and seems a very ridged mindset.

There isn’t only one path to becoming an NHL player and all of them need a LOT of development to have any hope to make it after the top few prospects. It really just needs to play out and see where these guys are in a few years. Especially for the defensemen (and goalies). They take a lot of time in most cases.

There’s a distinct difference between projection and writing a player off. As of today, he’s projecting as a limited #6/#5 NHL defenseman. He’s likely going to be an NHL player. What will (& currently has) held him back from being a truly effective defenseman is his hockey sense. I’m unaware of many instances where a player’s hockey sense improved significantly post-draft. There is also nothing wrong with judging a prospects current level of play. We do that for everyone else...what makes Ginning a special case (i.e. immune to criticism?)

 

[Striiker]

Saying he projects to be a #6/#5 seems extremely optimistic.

I'd say it's more likely he projects to be sub-NHL quality and his ceiling is as a #6.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

• Rushed/inefficient with the puck on his stick.

• Decision making without the puck is not much better.

• Positional awareness is lacking, which compounds the first two problems as the combination of being mentally slow and physically awkward in tight/quick movements stack in the most unflattering way possible.

• He frequently takes poor angles when presented with speed to the outside and lacks the foot speed to make up for it.

You can make every one of these criticisms about Morin, except for straight-line recovery speed. And yet Morin was voted the #9 prospect, with votes from people who think Ginning is indefensible at #20. Something is amiss.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

He’s likely going to be an NHL player.

That I have to disagree with pretty strongly. I think the likely to be an NHLer cutoff is around 4 or 5 players, even as deep as the system is.

 

[TB87]

That I have to disagree with pretty strongly. I think the likely to be an NHLer cutoff is around 4 or 5 players, even as deep as the system is.

My apologies. I should’ve clarified. An NHL player and not necessarily for the Flyers.

 

[Striiker]

 

[Ghosts Beer]

There’s a distinct difference between projection and writing a player off. As of today, he’s projecting as a limited #6/#5 NHL defenseman. He’s likely going to be an NHL player. What will (& currently has) held him back from being a truly effective defenseman is his hockey sense. I’m unaware of many instances where a player’s hockey sense improved significantly post-draft. There is also nothing wrong with judging a prospects current level of play. We do that for everyone else...what makes Ginning a special case (i.e. immune to criticism?)

The complaints about Ginning’s hockey sense are greatly overblown, IMO.

I suppose that’s where I disagree most strongly with those who essentially ridicule him. I tend to think there’s a lot of projection going on by those who are against his style of play & wanted a different pick. And jumping on every mistake he makes to validate their stance.

And how anyone can believe hockey sense & hands render Ginning unworthy of a #20 ranking, while also supporting Morin, is beyond me.

I actually think Ginning is pretty smart. I think he’s usually good positionally; I think he’s terrific at using his reach to make defensive plays with his stick; I think he’s a much better skater (& improving) for his size than he gets credit for; he’s intelligent at using a low shot to create rebounds; he’s strong & times his hits so as not to take himself out of position. I think his hockey sense is much better than Morin’s. And I think he’s a lock to make the NHL. So those are my reasons I think he’s a completely defensible vote.

 

[Magua]

It's simply false that the people fueling this Ginning discussion, the ones who are the avid watchers, are the ones voting Morin in the top 10. It's the exact opposite. Few actually like Ginning's game here. The fact that a recent 2nd rounder with so much international and pro hoopla -- someone who is *ahem* a stone cold LOCK to be an NHLer -- is being voted late teens-early twenties by his biggest fans confirms that.

If you can't grasp the difference between Morin being drafted as a young, upside pick (whether you agreed with that upside or not) with truly unique physical tools; meanwhile, Ginning's songs of praise were about how he's already a physically and stylistically mature pro among the oldest in his age group (even if you thought that hollow praise), then I can't help you. I have never thought as highly as Morin as the consensus; he's depth fodder right now. I also think he does things, and always has, better than Ginning: mobility, gaps, physicality, and yes, I do think he's smarter. But it's a low bar to clear when I see a defender with an almost visible thought bubble at each moment of play, combined with oafish footwork and puck skills.

The point of this Morin talk is to move away from actually discussing Ginning's game in detail. Because certain parties cannot. Round and round we go.

 

[orangey]

Again, no specifics. Your one tangible point is that he's 19 and that's too young to write anyone off. I agree. However, Defensemen peaking later on the average is something that has not turned out to be true when aging curves were examined at appropriately large scale. If you want the studies, I'm more than happy to provide them.

There's a difference between writing someone off and being skeptical about the level of development required in specific areas to be baseline functional in the NHL. For the record, here are my specific areas for skepticism with Ginning:

• Rushed/inefficient with the puck on his stick.
• Decision making without the puck is not much better.
• Positional awareness is lacking, which compounds the first two problems as the combination of being mentally slow and physically awkward in tight/quick movements stack in the most unflattering way possible.
• He frequently takes poor angles when presented with speed to the outside and lacks the foot speed to make up for it.

We need to account for both how far he needs to come in those areas and how difficult it is to improve in each of them if we're evaluating him as a prospect.

Decision making with and without the puck, angles, positional awareness, etc., seems perfectly normal things to need to improve to get to the next level. How is this appreciably different than any of these other guys? How perfect is he supposed to be at 19? First rounder level? He’s about where you would expect at his draft position and age. Needs some work in some areas and time will tell.

If he is still doing the same dumb shit at 22 or so then hey, maybe he is a dummy like many seem to be painting him here. I’m going to continue to be open-minded about him for a while though since there is really no compelling reason to conclude much of anything at this point other than he is a teenage non first round prospect working through some stuff, like they all are.

Would I be correct at assuming the way you are weighting things all of the more puck skilled PMD types are going to grade out higher and the things they need to improve to make it are going to be ‘easier’? Like getting stronger, as well as being more-sound defensively (decision making with and without the puck, angles, positional awareness, etc.). This whole argument seems to be more of a preference of style than anything. People on this forum don’t like Ginning’s game and would prefer they had drafted another finesse D instead.

 

[FLYguy3911]

My IQ has taken a hit in this thread.

 

[Starat327]

My IQ has taken a hit in this thread.

That's why you're rated well past #20. Duh.

 

[Magua]

This whole argument seems to be more of a preference of style than anything. People on this forum don’t like Ginning’s game and would prefer they had drafted another finesse D instead.

I wish you started, not ended, with this comment. Would've saved time for those making earnest responses. You might want to sit down for this, but the people who don't like Ginning's game actually can value and evaluate defensive defenseman. Just like one doesn't have to like Ryan Merkley because he likes Cam York.

 

[Striiker]

Do people honestly believe a player with bad hands can suddenly develop puck skills in their 20s?

There's being open minded and then there's being delusional.

 

[TB87]

Decision making with and without the puck, angles, positional awareness, etc., seems perfectly normal things to need to improve to get to the next level. How is this appreciably different than any of these other guys? How perfect is he supposed to be at 19? First rounder level? He’s about where you would expect at his draft position and age. Needs some work in some areas and time will tell.

If he is still doing the same dumb **** at 22 or so then hey, maybe he is a dummy like many seem to be painting him here. I’m going to continue to be open-minded about him for a while though since there is really no compelling reason to conclude much of anything at this point other than he is a teenage non first round prospect working through some stuff, like they all are.

Would I be correct at assuming the way you are weighting things all of the more puck skilled PMD types are going to grade out higher and the things they need to improve to make it are going to be ‘easier’? Like getting stronger, as well as being more-sound defensively (decision making with and without the puck, angles, positional awareness, etc.). This whole argument seems to be more of a preference of style than anything. People on this forum don’t like Ginning’s game and would prefer they had drafted another finesse D instead.

The thinking by the Flyers scout/scouts seemed to be to get a defense-first defenseman with the 50th pick. Alec Regula was right there for the taking. For a scouting department that prioritizes hockey sense highly (as they should) that alone made the Ginning pick all the more puzzling. As I said earlier, hockey sense is one of those intangibles that’s pretty rare to improve upon. He needs quite a bit of improvement there to be an even half-way effective NHL defenseman in the future. As Jojo said above, he’s mentally slow (AKA slow processor, reactive instead of proactive, slow with the puck on his stick, slow in recognizing assignment switches, slow in anticipating where the flow of play is going, etc.)

I tend to value fast puck movers a lot but I also value defense-first defenseman. If said defense-first defenseman struggles with the puck on his stick, his defensive play better be tremendous in order to provide tangible value to his team. Ginning has the double-whammy of poor puck skills+mediocre defensive play in most facets (minus winning 50/50 battles + the ability to consistently force a change of possession with his hits).



I wish this board talked more about Zamula than the thoroughly unexciting NHL prospects of Ginning...(Just in general across the Flyers forum in particular & not necessarily in this thread)