OT: 2018 Phillies Thread Part 2

[Cody Webster]

Never good when the leadoff batter reaches base....

 

[wankstifier]

That's a shame. Garcia was looking so good in his previous 4 appearances.

Yeah, I don't think the Nats would just give Harper away. Just saying that I wouldn't give up too much. Maybe Medina straight up.

 

[FLYguy3911]

That’s what happens when good pitching is paired with bad hitting, defense, and baserunning. You go 13 innings and eat up your pen in the process. Your ace threw 8 innings against the best team in baseball, gave up 3 legitimate hits, and still didn’t win. Not good. A split would have been a great result. Gotta stop the bleeding. Miami isn’t a pushover.

 

[Halladay]

Team isn't good enough.

 

[Jray42]

Honestly, this isn’t a very good baseball team.

 

[gertbfrobe16]

2 years away just like the other teams. minus the eagles.

 

[FLYguy3911]

At least this team isn’t pissing away Mike Trout’s prime. He’d be a FA this winter if he didn’t sign that damn extension.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

I truly do hope that they do what they can to get Harper.

 

[wankstifier]

Why slap timelines on contention? Makes no sense

 

[SnS]

I truly do hope that they do what they can to get Harper.

The price is going to be way too high, it won’t make sense.

 

[AndHeMissedTheNet]

yeah i'm not a Harper fan. hard pass on mortgaging the future for him.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Rizzo just came out and said he’s not getting traded.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

Anyone going on Sunday to the 2008 celebration day? Is there going to be like a meet and greet with some of the players or?

 

[wankstifier]

Most of the lineup has been slumping slightly in July. The two weakest links--Kingery and Santana--have really dragged down the offense in the past month. The former has been such a black hole that the Phillies would've been better off not trading Galvis. Never thought I would say that...

Not sure what's up with Santana. I don't think his contact ability has disappeared. And, it's not like this is his first time against the shift. Is he swinging at fewer pitches in the strikezone than normal? If so, I'd like to see him take more chances with his bat at the expense of walks.

EDIT

On Santana:

Looks like the z-Sw% is high-normal. So, the approach looks as good as ever and it's not an issue of swinging less at pitches in the zone. The difference I see is soft% vs med+hard%, but that's difficult to interpret. Maybe the ability to drive the ball is fading? Or, sometimes hitters become inexplicably worse after joining a new team...

 

[deadhead]

.500 would have been a great season this year, so anything more is house money, and great experience for the prospects.
It would be silly to give up serious assets to make a run this year, if the young players don't step up, Harper isn't going to put them over the top (in fact, I'm not sure this year's Harper is an upgrade over Williams).

2020 is going to be a heck of a year in Philly, much like 2000.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Most of the lineup has been slumping slightly in July. The two weakest links--Kingery and Santana--have really dragged down the offense in the past month. The former has been such a black hole that the Phillies would've been better off not trading Galvis. Never thought I would say that...

Not sure what's up with Santana. I don't think his contact ability has disappeared. And, it's not like this is his first time against the shift. Is he swinging at fewer pitches in the strikezone than normal? If so, I'd like to see him take more chances with his bat at the expense of walks.

Wouldn't go that far. Galvis is a near replacement level player with a sub-.300 OBP once again. EDLS was a good add even if he's struggling a bit at the moment.

Crawford getting hurt and missing extended time on two separate occasions hurt them more than the casuals want to admit. He was showing signs of life both times before going on the DL. Even after the miserable start and hitting below .200 he had a near league average OBP and ISO. He was hitting about 20% better than the league average after the 1st week of the season. A healthy Crawford at least gives Kapler the option of picking his spots between Franco and Kingery. Kingery's problem is simply getting down in the count almost every time he steps to the plate. He has more 0-2 counts than anyone in baseball and the league average once you get 0-2 is .170. Hard to be a productive player that way. I think he'll figure it out eventually but he has a lot on his plate right now.

Santana is weird. 17 more walks than strikeouts. 3rd best BB/K ratio in the league which is a pretty good indicator of a good hitter. Still has a .350 OBP but he's just not doing enough damage on contact. Thought he was a little unlucky at the start, but a lot of weak contact recently.

 

[wankstifier]

.500 would have been a great season this year, so anything more is house money, and great experience for the prospects. (1)
It would be silly to give up serious assets to make a run this year, if the young players don't step up, Harper isn't going to put them over the top (in fact, I'm not sure this year's Harper is an upgrade over Williams).(2)

2020 is going to be a heck of a year in Philly, much like 2000. (3)

• (1) The Phillies have some of the best pitching in the league. With pitching, experience means innings lost on healthy arms. As good as the rotation and bullpen have been, it would be disappointing to see the team miss the playoffs. Waste of good innings.

• (2) God, it's cute that you think Williams has been on par with Harper at his worst.

• (3) There it is again. The meaningless two year projection.

 

[tucson83]

yeah i'm not a Harper fan. hard pass on mortgaging the future for him.

do you want just prospects and no proven stars on this team?

 

[FLYguy3911]

I'm sure Phillies fans would cut Harper some slack when he's hitting .215 with a ton of walks like they have with Carlos Santana.

 

[wankstifier]

Wouldn't go that far. Galvis is a near replacement level player with a sub-.300 OBP once again. EDLS was a good add even if he's struggling a bit at the moment.

I agree that de los Santos is an interesting return for a bench infielder/replacement SS. Didn't think that Kingery would become the de facto SS due to injury and poor depth at the position. Galvis as an insurance policy seems somewhat desirable in retrospect.

Crawford getting hurt and missing extended time on two separate occasions hurt them more than the casuals want to admit. He was showing signs of life both times before going on the DL. Even after the miserable start and hitting below .200 he had a near league average OBP and ISO. He was hitting about 20% better than the league average after the 1st week of the season. A healthy Crawford at least gives Kapler the option of picking his spots between Franco and Kingery. Kingery's problem is simply getting down in the count almost every time he steps to the plate. He has more 0-2 counts than anyone in baseball and the league average once you get 0-2 is .170. Hard to be a productive player that way. I think he'll figure it out eventually but he has a lot on his plate right now.

Yeah, I'm of the opinion that Crawford can't come back soon enough.

Unless you think Kingery is getting squeezed on his strikezone, I think he has control over the count. From limited viewings, I've found that his approach has been questionable. I haven't seen enough of the good Kingery to know how he'll develop from the slog.

Santana is weird. 17 more walks than strikeouts. 3rd best BB/K ratio in the league which is a pretty good indicator of a good hitter. Still has a .350 OBP but he's just not doing enough damage on contact. Thought he was a little unlucky at the start, but a lot of weak contact recently.

I also don't think he's unlucky. The bump in weak contact with all else remaining the same is concerning

 

[deadhead]

• (1) The Phillies have some of the best pitching in the league. With pitching, experience means innings lost on healthy arms. As good as the rotation and bullpen have been, it would be disappointing to see the team miss the playoffs. Waste of good innings.

• (2) God, it's cute that you think Williams has been on par with Harper at his worst.

• (3) There it is again. The meaningless two year projection.

The Phillies rotation has three inexperienced pitchers who've had good stretches and bad stretches, experience means a lot to their development. The only pitchers who are on the way out are Arrieta (32), Neshak, Hunter and Garcia.

Williams has a .900 OPS his last 40 games.

Nothing meaningless about the two year projection, players tend to peak between 25-30, Phillies have a lot of players learning on the job right now, Hoskins, Alfaro, Williams, Kingery, Crawford, Franco, Knapp, andmore on the way, same with pitching, Velasquez, Eflin, Pivetta, SD, Arano, Ramos, Rios, Davis, and more on the way. In two years, some will have faltered, but others will have become those "experienced veterans."

 

[FLYguy3911]

I agree that de los Santos is an interesting return for a bench infielder/replacement SS. Didn't think that Kingery would become the de facto SS due to injury and poor depth at the position. Galvis as an insurance policy seems somewhat desirable in retrospect.

They could pick up Galvis today for pennies and still come out on top if they want to.

Unless you think Kingery is getting squeezed on his strikezone, I think he has control over the count. From limited viewings, I've found that his approach has been questionable. I haven't seen enough of the good Kingery to know how he'll develop from the slog.

Oh he has control over it. I wasn't suggesting it's all bad luck. He swings at more than half the pitches he sees which is a lot. He swings at nearly 40% of the balls he sees which is about 10 points above the league average. He sees a lot of strikes and has a below average contact rate on pitches in the strike zone. That's not good.

There is some bad luck though.

% of pitches seen in the strike zone, taken for a ball: Kingery 7%/League Average 13.6%
That's a somewhat significant gap.

% of pitches seen outside of the strike zone, taken for a strike: Kingery 9.5%/League Average 7.4%
Not as significant but it adds up.

He struggled with plate discipline in his first stops at Reading and Lehigh Valley as well which is why I wasn't in favor of running him straight to the Big Leagues like almost everyone else was. He figured out AA in his second go around. He didn't get the chance to at AAA.

I heard Kapler say something interesting the other day. He said before the season the Phillies thought Scott had a chance to be their most valuable [all around] position player this season. Sounds crazy now, but it wasn't hard to envision him being an above average hitter, that added value on the bases, and played in the middle of the diamond. It makes sense why they signed him to the contract that they did (Scotty looks pretty smart for signing ATM). I thought he would struggle from a BB/K standpoint, but I thought he would find a way to be at least a league average hitter. I didn't anticipate this level of struggle.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Tbf, he was hitting damn near .200 40 days ago. He was really hot there for awhile.

 

[wankstifier]

The Phillies rotation has three inexperienced pitchers who've had good stretches and bad stretches, experience means a lot to their development. The only pitchers who are on the way out are Arrieta (32), Neshak, Hunter and Garcia.

Williams has a .900 OPS his last 40 games.

Nothing meaningless about the two year projection, players tend to peak between 25-30, Phillies have a lot of players learning on the job right now, Hoskins, Alfaro, Williams, Kingery, Crawford, Franco, Knapp, andmore on the way, same with pitching, Velasquez, Eflin, Pivetta, SD, Arano, Ramos, Rios, Davis, and more on the way. In two years, some will have faltered, but others will have become those "experienced veterans."

There's so much uncertainty about pitching and health. In general, innings logged are innings lost. It's a waste if good innings don't lead to the playoffs.

Williams has to make a career of hitting around a 0.900 OPS if he's going to be valuable in the DH-less NL.

I'm not very concerned about Hoskins or Alfaro getting reps. I could see the argument for Kingery and Crawford, but that's about it.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Tbf, he was hitting damn near .200 40 days ago. He was really hot there for awhile.

He actually hasn't gotten hot. That is the problem. His best month average wise in .250 (June). His best month by wRC+ was Mar/April and that was only 76 which is well below average.

You can look at some of his splits here:
Scott Kingery » Splits » 2018 » Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

It really comes down to getting in hitter's counts or not.

If he had a league average or better HR/FB rate that would help a lot too. Hitting a few too many to the warning track.