2018 off-season thread

[deadhead]

I was replying to a previous post suggesting that a top 10 pick is too much for ROR. I disagree and would do the 14th + in a heartbeat.

I guess you’re critiquing my calling him a 70 point player, so let’s call him 60+. Not sure what the relevance is to Simmonds, as ROR is a complete player who’s production has been consistent while Simmonds has declined

O'Reilly averaged 15-25 40 ES for three years
Last two seasons he's averaged 10-22 32
He's got decent Corsi on a bad team, but his E +/- has been negative every season.
ES is more important, because his PP scoring doesn't have much value to the Flyers (PP1 is full with Patrick & Couts).

He'd be the 3rd center on the Flyers at $7.5M, he'd also cost a top defensive prospect (say Sanheim) and maybe more.
And Frost might be a better player in two years, so he'd be an expensive LW.

 

[deadhead]

Danny Martel is not a NHL player, he's not even close to a PPG in the AHL, and he'll be a serious hole on defense.
At least Bardreau could potentially play on your fourth line and the PK.

On the bottom six, you either have to be a good offensive player or a solid defensive player/checker/PK guy.
(if you were both, you'd be a top 6 player!).
As we've seen with Weal, decent but not special offensively combined with subpar size and defense is a nonstarter.

 

[Rodu58]

Im letting Flip, Manning, Read and Mrazek walk for free.
Buy out Torgo, someone posted here its rather affordable.
I would listen to offers for Simmonds. Not against bringing him back as I think he has been playing rather hurt hence his poor play since coming back.

G Coutts TK
Lindblom Patrick Voracek
Laughton Frost/UFA Simmonds/UFA
Raffl Vorobyev NAK

 

[Rodu58]

Danny Martel is not a NHL player, he's not even close to a PPG in the AHL, and he'll be a serious hole on defense.

agreed on Martel, I dont see NHL upside from his limited exposure

 

[Adam Warlock]

No it doesnt, because we still have no wingers to put the puck away. It also utterly destroys the cap structure of the team moving forward.

While were at it, let's just put Holmgren back in charge. At least than the aesthetics are right

How does having a play maker like Frost instead of JT make that any better? If your answer is "well theyll have the cap space to get better wingers"...none of the wingers your going to get will be as good as JT. Tavares would give us 4 potential 30 goal scorers (him, G, TK, and couts) and a handful of 20 goal guys (voracek, patrick, lindblom).

There is plenty of cap room to be had. Theyll gain like 15 mil just by letting guys walk and a cap increase alone. Thats not including dumping guys like Amac, lethera, simmonds, etc.

Giroux, Couturier, Konecny, Frost, Tavares, Voracek, Lindblom, and Patrick could be 8/9 of our top 9.

 

[flyershockey]

It's not like the Flyers need much. With the prospects we have coming through the pipeline, it makes zero sense to blow loads of cap space. Don't forget, there's going to be contract extensions needed for Provorov and Konecny and that's not going to be cheap either. Everything is all about maintaining salary flexibility. We all saw how bad of shape the team got into when they had no flexibility. It also makes no sense in blocking spots for when guys like Frost, Allison, Ratcliffe, Hart, etc...are going to be ready. That's why I went cheap. Keep cap flexibility, ensure spots aren't blocked for when guys are ready.

I get everyone wants to go spend happy this off-season. I've been a fan of the club for nearly 40 years and going salary cap crazy doesn't work. Identify your core, add your supporting cast around the core, and use free agency as a means to plug spots that won't cost you an arm and a leg.

Exploring the trade market and hitting free agency are two completely different things.

 

[Rich Nixon]

A little weary of pencilling in Frost so soon, we need to see how he does in camp. A lot of guys tear up juniors, and while he's extremely impressive, let's let him breath.

And I also don't understand the aversion to letting young Cs ride the wing for a year or two. Plenty of teams do it and there's little evidence that it screws up their ability to center a line later-hell, McDavid rode Draisatl's wing for a while. I want this team to have an actual 3rd line capable of playing both ways, rather than having to scuttle a lot of Giroux/Couturier's minutes matching up with other team's top guys. If we've learned anything from this series, it's that that's a bad idea.

So, if Frost makes it, I'd still want a Bozak-type figure out there holding down the middle and letting Frost learn the speed of the NHL game and get confidence. There's plenty of time for him to develop into an NHL center, but asking him to pivot the 3rd with whatever mediocre wings he'll end up with seems less beneficial than just having him play whichever wing he's more comfortable with and provide some scoring pop beside a decent veteran.

I think the era of the pure shutdown line is over, but that still doesn't mean it's a great idea to have a rookie scoring forward as your 3C.

 

[deadhead]

I'm not sure Frost is a winger type, his speed and smarts are better suited to center, he's not as explosive a scorer as TK, and on a third line you certainly don't want him going regularly into tight areas.

 

[Rebels57]

A little weary of pencilling in Frost so soon, we need to see how he does in camp. A lot of guys tear up juniors, and while he's extremely impressive, let's let him breath.

And I also don't understand the aversion to letting young Cs ride the wing for a year or two. Plenty of teams do it and there's little evidence that it screws up their ability to center a line later-hell, McDavid rode Draisatl's wing for a while. I want this team to have an actual 3rd line capable of playing both ways, rather than having to scuttle a lot of Giroux/Couturier's minutes matching up with other team's top guys. If we've learned anything from this series, it's that that's a bad idea.

So, if Frost makes it, I'd still want a Bozak-type figure out there holding down the middle and letting Frost learn the speed of the NHL game and get confidence. There's plenty of time for him to develop into an NHL center, but asking him to pivot the 3rd with whatever mediocre wings he'll end up with seems less beneficial than just having him play whichever wing he's more comfortable with and provide some scoring pop beside a decent veteran.

I think the era of the pure shutdown line is over, but that still doesn't mean it's a great idea to have a rookie scoring forward as your 3C.

This probably would be for the best, as long as you can sign someone short term.

 

[StephenPeat]

If the Caps want to re-sign Carlson then they will likely have to move Holtby. Other teams knowing that reduces what they will return in a trade.

This is not even remotely true.

 

[Rebels57]

This is not even remotely true.

Which part? Care to elaborate?

 

[StephenPeat]

Which part? Care to elaborate?

With the minimum projected increase in the Salary Cap ($3M) + Cap Savings from allowing Jay Beagle ($1.75M) and one of Kempny/Jerabek (~$900K) to walk and a smaller trade (say Grubauer $1.5M) the Caps would have as much as (~$7M, say $4M to Carlson 1-1.5M for Wilson and fill out the remainder with league-minimum earners) to spend towards the Cap and no notable FAs besides Carlson and Tom Wilson and no other notable roster changes to a roster that competed this season with a $75M Salary Cap. The Caps Salary Cap issues have been dramatically overstated and the uptick in the Cap provides a lot of flexibility.

Long story short. The Caps don't have to trade Holtby to retain Carlson. They certainly aren't going to trade Holtby at a loss to do so.

 

[Starat327]

How does having a play maker like Frost instead of JT make that any better? If your answer is "well theyll have the cap space to get better wingers"...none of the wingers your going to get will be as good as JT. Tavares would give us 4 potential 30 goal scorers (him, G, TK, and couts) and a handful of 20 goal guys (voracek, patrick, lindblom).

There is plenty of cap room to be had. Theyll gain like 15 mil just by letting guys walk and a cap increase alone. Thats not including dumping guys like Amac, lethera, simmonds, etc.

Giroux, Couturier, Konecny, Frost, Tavares, Voracek, Lindblom, and Patrick could be 8/9 of our top 9.

Great, so a cap strapped team, and then when Seattle's expansion draft comes in we get to protect g, voracek, and tavares due to NMC (if you think hes going anywhere without one you're nuts), then we can choose between konecny, couturier, provorov, ghost, sanheim, morin, Myers and lindblom for the other 5 spots. But I mean, for those couple of years, with our atrocious goaltending, it'll be fun to watch. 2011 all over again. Yay.

Tavares makes the team better. He doesnt make us a contender.

But hey, let's spend 5 years building for the future to throw it away for a 2 year window.

 

[Rebels57]

With the minimum projected increase in the Salary Cap ($3M) + Cap Savings from allowing Jay Beagle ($1.75M) and one of Kempny/Jerabek (~$900K) to walk and a smaller trade (say Grubauer $1.5M) the Caps would have as much as (~$7M, say $4M to Carlson 1-1.5M for Wilson and fill out the remainder with league-minimum earners) to spend towards the Cap and no notable FAs besides Carlson and Tom Wilson and no other notable roster changes to a roster that competed this season with a $75M Salary Cap. The Caps Salary Cap issues have been dramatically overstated and the uptick in the Cap provides a lot of flexibility.

Long story short. The Caps don't have to trade Holtby to retain Carlson. They certainly aren't going to trade Holtby at a loss to do so.

Fine trade us Grubauer then

 

[Rich Nixon]

Great, so a cap strapped team, and then when Seattle's expansion draft comes in we get to protect g, voracek, and tavares due to NMC (if you think hes going anywhere without one you're nuts), then we can choose between konecny, couturier, provorov, ghost, sanheim, morin, Myers and lindblom for the other 5 spots. But I mean, for those couple of years, with our atrocious goaltending, it'll be fun to watch. 2011 all over again. Yay.

Tavares makes the team better. He doesnt make us a contender.

But hey, let's spend 5 years building for the future to throw it away for a 2 year window.

Well, if you're worried about assets and expansion drafts, remember that we don't know the terms yet, and we'd be able to trade assets rather than exposing them. Plus, teams were allowed to protect 7 forwards and 3 defensemen last time if they wanted. Seems like bad rationale to avoid a FA signing-we have no idea what it'll look like yet.

I also think they wouldn't end up too screwed capwise. Their contracts are tiered pretty beautifully between longterm, bridge, and ELC deals. I'm not arguing that going after Tavares is a good idea, but if any team could make it work, the Flyers are actually one of the best-positioned.

 

[Starat327]

Well, if you're worried about assets and expansion drafts, remember that we don't know the terms yet, and we'd be able to trade assets rather than exposing them. Plus, teams were allowed to protect 7 forwards and 3 defensemen last time if they wanted. Seems like bad rationale to avoid a FA signing-we have no idea what it'll look like yet.

I also think they wouldn't end up too screwed capwise. Their contracts are tiered pretty beautifully between longterm, bridge, and ELC deals. I'm not arguing that going after Tavares is a good idea, but if any team could make it work, the Flyers are actually one of the best-positioned.

Bettman has already said that Seattle would follow the same rules as Vegas.

 

[deadhead]

Tavares will be grossly overpaid, he's a very good center, he's not an elite player.
23-27 ES the last four years, which is very good, but that's probably all he'll give you.
His PP value is limited for the Flyers, he won't make them much better there (who is he going to replace?).
He's not physical, he's not a great skater, he's not a great defender, he's solid at possession but not exceptional.
He's primary a scorer who has highest value for a team that lacks a top dog and needs PP help (Carolina, for example).

On the Flyers he'd be the 3rd best center next year or the year after on a 8 year, $100M deal (yes, he'll outscore Patrick for another year or two, but Patrick brings more to the table and his upside is above Tavares).

He'd only make sense if you had a deal for Voracek without taking on a bad contract.

 

[StephenPeat]

Fine trade us Grubauer then

Honestly, I've always found this to be the most likely scenario (not necessarily to the Flyers). I think Grubauer is traded at the draft for a mid- to late-1st.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Imagine all of Thornton, Tavares, kovy and Carlson wait until tdl and then sign with flyers after we bank 30 million of capspace.
G Couts Kony
Kovy Patrick Voracek
Tavares Thornton Simmonds
Lindblom Lehtera Weise

Provy Ghost
MacDonald Carlson
Manning Gudas
Sanheim

Elliott
Neuvirth

Good luck stopping that.

 

[Rebels57]

Imagine all of Thornton, Tavares, kovy and Carlson wait until tdl and then sign with flyers after we bank 30 million of capspace.
G Couts Kony
Kovy Patrick Voracek
Tavares Thornton Simmonds
Lindblom Lehtera Weise

Provy Ghost
MacDonald Carlson
Manning Gudas
Sanheim

Elliott
Neuvirth

Good luck stopping that.

Why imagine something that far-fetched?

 

[David St Hubbins]

Imagine all of Thornton, Tavares, kovy and Carlson wait until tdl and then sign with flyers after we bank 30 million of capspace.
G Couts Kony
Kovy Patrick Voracek
Tavares Thornton Simmonds
Lindblom Lehtera Weise

Provy Ghost
MacDonald Carlson
Manning Gudas
Sanheim

Elliott
Neuvirth

Good luck stopping that.

My pet unicorn/yeti/griffon cross ‘Laszlo” can be starting goaltender

 

[Winston Wolf]

"Giroux is mediocre and Patrick will be better than Tavares."

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Why imagine something that far-fetched?

Thanks to signing bonuses it's a pretty viable method to circumvent the cap even if far fetched. Get some elite players to form super team nba style.
2019 off-season has some sick talent coming up. Players like Oel, Mcdonagh, karlsson, Skinner, Duchene, paccioretti are probably heading for free agency anyway.

 

[Tripod]

I'm not sure Frost is a winger type, his speed and smarts are better suited to center, he's not as explosive a scorer as TK, and on a third line you certainly don't want him going regularly into tight areas.

Could you explain this? What are the tight areas?

 

[Magua]

Could you explain this? What are the tight areas?

You don’t want to know.

McDavid rode Draisatl's wing for a while.

Pretty sure it’s the opposite.

I agree with deceasednoggin though. Frost plays a peculiar game more conducive at center. I also agree there’s nothing wrong with starting him at wing — he’d adapt. He’d certainly have to be more aggressive with his speed. I also don’t know if we actually will have a better center. Point was a year older, but he started at center. It can be done. It certainly is more demanding. I also don’t know if it will even matter in terms of his roster spot next year. Lastly, I also also also also also also also.