Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft Part I

[Nubmer6]

Check out the first goal of this highlight. Very dirty.



His offensive #'s, even as a very young for draft class 16 year old are fantastic. Then his #'s are as a 17 year old are even better. His +/- is awful, but the team is lousy, and if he's getting the toughest minutes, then I can forgive him for that.

Watching that video, he kinda reminds me of Matt Gilroy.

 

[My3Sons]

I dont really care about the character concerns thing. If you have a firm staff and steady player leadership, then it shouldn't be a problem. Scouts are saying he's making plays that no-one in this draft class can. NJ sorely needs a legit top pair dman who can drive the offense. It's much easier to find a steady dman like Methot than it is an Erik Karlsson. Not saying Merkley is gonna be Karlsson, but even 80% of him is a top dman. He had the highest ppg on a team that featured good prospects like Ratcliffe and Givani Smith (in a small sample size). Not to mention he's one of the youngest guys in the draft.

The defensive issues are a pretty big concern. It's why he's not a top 5 pick in the draft. But a lot of defense is effort and coaching and if he puts in the work, there's no reason why he can't get to average, which would be a huge net positive. I'd rather take a 50/50 chance he becomes elite than a 80/20 chance at a middle six player

Character is relevant in that the NHL is a grind and unless you can make the game look easy at the NHL level you have to have a certain level of compete all the time. Look at the difference in Zacha when he brings his confidence and when he doesn’t. To me character is part of that equation and I don’t see good veteran leadership making a borderline kid an NHL player. It has to come from within the kid. Some of that is maturity but some of it is just what you are born with also. I imagine his combine interviews will make him or break him. Who knows, maybe he’s been humbled a bit by the knowledge he is being passed over and he is ready to do things the right way. Best player I have seen in my kids’ sport at school was burned out by the end of senior year. He was great but had he been a pro prospect he’d never have panned out because he lost any passion for playing. It was obvious to anyone close to him but could easily have been missed by a team not doing due diligence.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I spent a little bit of time watching videos of some prospects (instead of studying for finals ) but I really like this guy. Lots of skill, from the limited viewings of him he seems pretty responsible and has a frame that can be grown into. I also liked Denisenko, I realize he plays LW but he's right handed so I would bet that he can make the transition to the other side. Again, limited viewing, but maybe a right handed Kucherov?

I would compare Denisenko a bit more to Panarin than Kucherov. He's very skilled, but I would rank him below a few wingers likely to be available at 17, notably Bokk, Kravtsov and Thomas. I expect Denisenko to be picked somewhere in the 20s.

 

[StevenToddIves]

You think Wilde will be there at 19-22? If he's there at 17 they take him, rigjt Steven?

I do not think Wilde is likely to last until 19-22, but it is possible. His upside is enormous -- you just don't see too many young D with prototypical size who have that elite skating ability. Throw in his bomb of a shot and ability to lay bone-jarring hits and he's truly a tantalizing prospect. However, his play has been inconsistent and he has shown a propensity for giveaways/mistakes, so maybe that scares teams off in the top 15.

If Wilde indeed fell to 17, you can bet that Shero and Castron would be interested. I will say (again), that by the end of this season I thought that the best defenseman in the USA development program was not Wilde, but rather K'Andre Miller, who is also likely to interest the Devils with the #17 pick.

But in summary Smitty, I would say yes, Wilde to the Devils is certainly possible.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Check out the first goal of this highlight. Very dirty.



His offensive #'s, even as a very young for draft class 16 year old are fantastic. Then his #'s are as a 17 year old are even better. His +/- is awful, but the team is lousy, and if he's getting the toughest minutes, then I can forgive him for that.

Teams have things called "No Draft Lists". Every team. They are simply lists of kids who have red flags due to character/style of play which scare teams off completely. Defenseman Oliver Kylington went into his draft year ranked in most scouting bureaus top 5 overall lists. Character/consistency concerns similar to Merkley's were rumored to place him on the No Draft lists of over half the NHL teams. Instead of going top 5, he wound up going 60th overall in 2015 to Calgary.

Merkley also began this year on many top 5 lists. The same situation has befallen him as Kylington. So we are talking about a kid who could go in the top 15, or could plummet to the bottom of the second round. Is his upside huge? Yes. But so are the upsides of Bode Wilde and K'Andre Miller, and those two are not heavily rumored to be disliked by teammates and coaches.

It's not that I would not draft Merkely. It's that I would not take him ahead of Wilde or Miller or even Alexeyev. When you have one pick in the first three rounds (as the Devils do), you simply cannot afford to take a chance of Merkley's magnitude with that pick. I expect him to be taken by a team with multiple first-round draft picks, such as Ottawa, the Rangers or Detroit -- or perhaps in the second round by a team with several picks like Montreal.

 

[HenriquesJawLine]

Scott Wheeler has all the d men we've been talking about outside his top 30. Scouting is crazy hard and I'm glad I don't have to make this decision haha.

 

[Triumph]

Scott Wheeler has all the d men we've been talking about outside his top 30. Scouting is crazy hard and I'm glad I don't have to make this decision haha.

Ty Smith was up there and I think we've been talking about him some in here but yeah. I'm very wary of defensemen in the first round - the success rate is just so much lower than forwards. I'm curious if that will change significantly as teams move away from drafting the huge dumptruck Ds that high.

 

[HenriquesJawLine]

Ty Smith was up there and I think we've been talking about him some in here but yeah. I'm very wary of defensemen in the first round - the success rate is just so much lower than forwards. I'm curious if that will change significantly as teams move away from drafting the huge dumptruck Ds that high.

This is why I like the Euro wingers like Kravstov and Bokk. They have the profile of guys currently in the league that went in the 20's but became stars. D men make me nervous.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Scott Wheeler has all the d men we've been talking about outside his top 30. Scouting is crazy hard and I'm glad I don't have to make this decision haha.

Let's play a game. Take a Scott Wheeler starting five of:
F Lundestrom
F Gustafsson
F Hallander
D Merkley
D Beaudin

And then I will take a top 5 of players ranked lower than Wheeler at every position.
F Thomas
F Bokk
F Wise
D Smith
D Miller

Now let's come back in 5 years and see who picked the better team.

 

[devilsblood]

This is why I like the Euro wingers like Kravstov and Bokk. They have the profile of guys currently in the league that went in the 20's but became stars. D men make me nervous.

Maybe it is trickier because defense is more nuanced, and the progression curve is stretched longer.

But Doughty was a #2 overall pick. Hedman a #2 overall pick, Seth Jones was 4th overall, guys like Provorov, Werenski and Sergachev were top 10. Karlsson was 15th overall, which is very high, but he was at the forefront of the new wave of smaller better skating defenders. If a player of his style and ability were on the board today I'm sure he'd be much higher.

Given this is a d heavy draft and our need, I'm a big proponent of going D in the first round this year.

 

[devilsblood]

Let's play a game. Take a Scott Wheeler starting five of:
F Lundestrom
F Gustafsson
F Hallander
D Merkley
D Beaudin

And then I will take a top 5 of players ranked lower than Wheeler at every position.
F Thomas
F Bokk
F Wise
D Smith
D Miller

Now let's come back in 5 years and see who picked the better team.

You are severely overrating our attention spans.

 

[Darkauron]

You are severely overrating our attention spans.

Well according to how much people love to re-hash old drafts.... I dont think so.

 

[Triumph]

Maybe it is trickier because defense is more nuanced, and the progression curve is stretched longer.

But Doughty was a #2 overall pick. Hedman a #2 overall pick, Seth Jones was 4th overall, guys like Provorov, Werenski and Sergachev were top 10. Karlsson was 15th overall, which is very high, but he was at the forefront of the new wave of smaller better skating defenders. If a player of his style and ability were on the board today I'm sure he'd be much higher.

Given this is a d heavy draft and our need, I'm a big proponent of going D in the first round this year.

I can play this game too -

Zach Bogosian was a #3 overall pick. Ekman-Larsson was 6th overall, Darnell Nurse was 7th overall. In all 3 cases I just selected the next defenseman drafted after the guys you cited, one is very good (people think he's great, I think he's a top-pairing D but not much beyond that), the other two are average. We can go much deeper with the bad D picked in those drafts as well. It's not about progression curves - the 3 defensemen you cited were taken in the last 3 drafts and all are stars already, and all the other D you mentioned were very good right away - it is that it just seems to be quite hard for NHL scouts to pinpoint what makes a good defenseman. The success rates are much lower, and I suspect that's true even if you only looked at drafts post 2005 when they mostly stopped drafting tomato cans.

 

[devilsblood]

I can play this game too -

Zach Bogosian was a #3 overall pick. Ekman-Larsson was 6th overall, Darnell Nurse was 7th overall. In all 3 cases I just selected the next defenseman drafted after the guys you cited, one is very good (people think he's great, I think he's a top-pairing D but not much beyond that), the other two are average. We can go much deeper with the bad D picked in those drafts as well. It's not about progression curves - the 3 defensemen you cited were taken in the last 3 drafts and all are stars already, and all the other D you mentioned were very good right away - it is that it just seems to be quite hard for NHL scouts to pinpoint what makes a good defenseman. The success rates are much lower, and I suspect that's true even if you only looked at drafts post 2005 when they mostly stopped drafting tomato cans.

Of coarse we can find examples highly drafted d-men who did not pan out, but we can also find the same with fwds.

But being wary of taking a d-man high in the first round could lead to passing on a big time NHL player.

 

[Ripshot 43]

You are severely overrating our attention spans.

Speak for yourse.... oh look, a Bird!

 

[StevenToddIves]

Of coarse we can find examples highly drafted d-men who did not pan out, but we can also find the same with fwds.

But being wary of taking a d-man high in the first round could lead to passing on a big time NHL player.

If the Devils were picking earlier in the draft, I would accept this argument. I could fully see the point in arguing to draft Wahlstrom over Bouchard or Veleno over Dobson.

But at #17, there are no "locks" for superstars. You need great scouting and savvy drafting. The fact is that the chances are similar of Kravtsov/Bokk becoming the Tarasenko/Pastrnak of this draft as they are for Wilde/Miller becoming the Subban/McAvoy of this draft.

The reason I keep pulling for K'Andre Miller is that he reminds me of a rawer Charlie McAvoy at the same age. While he is far from as polished, he shares McAvoy's ability to laser outlet passes, lead the rush, skate like the wind and lay bone crushing hits.

That being said, it would be difficult for me to argue if the Devils brass decided the best available player was Kravtsov, who offers just incredible scoring upside from another position of organizational need at RW. The kid is a beautiful skater with a litany of moves and arsenal of shots.

But there is always a greater margin of dissent among scouts once you move deeper into the draft. While Scott Wheeler has Kravtsov as 14 and Miller at 57, McKeen's has Miller at 16 and Kravtsov in the late 30's. Like my favorite draft expert Steve Kournianos, I rank both of these kids extremely highly. I'd say you would have to wait three years for either of them to see the NHL ice, but Kravtsov has greater scoring upside than likely top 10 picks Tkachuk and Kotkaniemi, while Miller has a ceiling of a dominant, two-way defenseman who plays 25-30 minutes per game.

 

[Devils Dominion]

If the Devils were picking earlier in the draft, I would accept this argument. I could fully see the point in arguing to draft Wahlstrom over Bouchard or Veleno over Dobson.

But at #17, there are no "locks" for superstars. You need great scouting and savvy drafting. The fact is that the chances are similar of Kravtsov/Bokk becoming the Tarasenko/Pastrnak of this draft as they are for Wilde/Miller becoming the Subban/McAvoy of this draft.

The reason I keep pulling for K'Andre Miller is that he reminds me of a rawer Charlie McAvoy at the same age. While he is far from as polished, he shares McAvoy's ability to laser outlet passes, lead the rush, skate like the wind and lay bone crushing hits.

That being said, it would be difficult for me to argue if the Devils brass decided the best available player was Kravtsov, who offers just incredible scoring upside from another position of organizational need at RW. The kid is a beautiful skater with a litany of moves and arsenal of shots.

But there is always a greater margin of dissent among scouts once you move deeper into the draft. While Scott Wheeler has Kravtsov as 14 and Miller at 57, McKeen's has Miller at 16 and Kravtsov in the late 30's. Like my favorite draft expert Steve Kournianos, I rank both of these kids extremely highly. I'd say you would have to wait three years for either of them to see the NHL ice, but Kravtsov has greater scoring upside than likely top 10 picks Tkachuk and Kotkaniemi, while Miller has a ceiling of a dominant, two-way defenseman who plays 25-30 minutes per game.

Conte was not savy at all in his last decade here.
How could he be so wrong in 2015 is the question to you.

I trust Castron but he did make a bonehead pick with Bastian when we were calling for Dahlen, Lukk and others.

Jury is still out on McLeod too but Castron seems to have a sharper eye than the prior regime

 

[StevenToddIves]

Conte was not savy at all in his last decade here.
How could he be so wrong in 2015 is the question to you.

I trust Castron but he did make a bonehead pick with Bastian when we were calling for Dahlen, Lukk and others.

Jury is still out on McLeod too but Castron seems to have a sharper eye than the prior regime

The players I really wanted in the 2nd round of 2016 were Andrew Peeke and Alex DeBrincat, but they were both gone by the time we picked at #41. Humorously enough, the forward I had atop my list when the Devils picked at #41 was Joey Anderson, who we got anyway. I actually had Anderson second overall behind D Adam Fox, who also lasted until the 3rd round. Third, if you're curious, was Cam Dineen.

 

[MartyOwns]

If the Devils were picking earlier in the draft, I would accept this argument. I could fully see the point in arguing to draft Wahlstrom over Bouchard or Veleno over Dobson.

But at #17, there are no "locks" for superstars. You need great scouting and savvy drafting. The fact is that the chances are similar of Kravtsov/Bokk becoming the Tarasenko/Pastrnak of this draft as they are for Wilde/Miller becoming the Subban/McAvoy of this draft.

The reason I keep pulling for K'Andre Miller is that he reminds me of a rawer Charlie McAvoy at the same age. While he is far from as polished, he shares McAvoy's ability to laser outlet passes, lead the rush, skate like the wind and lay bone crushing hits.

That being said, it would be difficult for me to argue if the Devils brass decided the best available player was Kravtsov, who offers just incredible scoring upside from another position of organizational need at RW. The kid is a beautiful skater with a litany of moves and arsenal of shots.

But there is always a greater margin of dissent among scouts once you move deeper into the draft. While Scott Wheeler has Kravtsov as 14 and Miller at 57, McKeen's has Miller at 16 and Kravtsov in the late 30's. Like my favorite draft expert Steve Kournianos, I rank both of these kids extremely highly. I'd say you would have to wait three years for either of them to see the NHL ice, but Kravtsov has greater scoring upside than likely top 10 picks Tkachuk and Kotkaniemi, while Miller has a ceiling of a dominant, two-way defenseman who plays 25-30 minutes per game.

are there any players that may be there at 17 that can potentially make the team this year or the next? there usually aren't at that range, but i'm just curious. i know miller is a few years off, but what about a guy like kravtsov?

 

[StevenToddIves]

are there any players that may be there at 17 that can potentially make the team this year or the next? there usually aren't at that range, but i'm just curious. i know miller is a few years off, but what about a guy like kravtsov?

You're likely waiting a few years for Kravtsov to come over from Russia. I think Bokk may be just a year or two away from the NHL. But Kravtsov's upside is higher in my opinion.

 

[Devils Dominion]

Who will draft Putin?

 

[MichaelJ]

You're likely waiting a few years for Kravtsov to come over from Russia. I think Bokk may be just a year or two away from the NHL. But Kravtsov's upside is higher in my opinion.

Would you say it’s significantly higher?

 

[thethinglonger]

Who will draft Putin?

Montreal probably will...and then will be confused when it's not what they initially wanted

 

[StevenToddIves]

Would you say it’s significantly higher?

No, I would not say Kravtsov's upside is overwhelmingly higher than Bokk, but it is higher. I place huge weight on skating ability, mores than ever in today's NHL. While Bokk is a pretty decent skater, Kravtsov is just outstanding. They are both extremely creative, have similar frames, and need to round out their two-way games. I would love to have either prospect in my organization. They can certainly both one-day be high-scoring top-line players in the NHL.

 

[HenriquesJawLine]

Don't see this as realistic but it would be amazing

2018 NHL Mock Draft - NHL - DraftSite.com