Prospect Info: 2018 Draft Thread (STL #1 via WPG is 29th OA)

[Ranksu]

@EastonBlues22 what did you selected last year at mod's mock? And year before that?

 

[Celtic Note]

I think Berggren does a lot of things that translate very well to the modern game, but (as with most smaller players) there are certainly questions about exactly how things will go as he transitions to higher leagues. I think there's a pretty good chance he goes in the first round, personally, even if I don't necessarily think the Blues would choose him themselves.

Both of those defenders were still on the board, as was Woo.

I generally shy away from those sorts of players in the first round. Every year there's one or more guys like Duncan Siemens...a big, mobile, physical shutdown defenseman with an "okay" offensive skill set (a decent shot and a "good" first pass) that gets everyone all excited about what a monster he could be if he developed offensively, while providing the comfort of a relatively high floor. Thing is, guys rarely take a massive leap forward offensively if they aren't flashing any plus skills in that area by the draft, and the upside of a 1 to 1.5 zone player really isn't that high, even if they're pretty good at what they actually do well.

Not all those players bust as hard as Siemens, of course, but I still don't think that sort of player is worth a 1st round investment when it's not overly difficult to find and develop capable bottom four defenders later in the draft, mostly because the most important two things they need to be able to do are defend and manage the puck adequately, and both those skills are fully capable of being mastered post-draft by anyone with the determination and baseline ability to do so. Even if you're incapable of drafting one, is it really that hard or expensive to fill that role via free agency? In that sense, their floor is something of an illusion as an "asset" because the role they are most likely to end up filling if they don't push past that floor simply doesn't present much value to an organization.

The toughest type of player to find outside the early rounds is a top 6 forward. In my opinion, the time to take your shot at those is with your early picks. A defenseman who is equally adept in all three zones is a high value player as well, but I'd still tend to lean towards the forward in a "tie" situation since those are generally easier to project moving forward.

Entirely agree.

Defense is harder to project unless they are elite out of the gate. Offense isn’t easily taught. Defense is easier, but still nothing close to a guarantee and when it works it often takes years to the point where they may already be on another team. I would say 2nd round or later for D, unless they are dynamic at both ends.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

I think Berggren does a lot of things that translate very well to the modern game, but (as with most smaller players) there are certainly questions about exactly how things will go as he transitions to higher leagues. I think there's a pretty good chance he goes in the first round, personally, even if I don't necessarily think the Blues would choose him themselves.

Both of those defenders were still on the board, as was Woo.

I generally shy away from those sorts of players in the first round. Every year there's one or more guys like Duncan Siemens...a big, mobile, physical shutdown defenseman with an "okay" offensive skill set (a decent shot and a "good" first pass) that gets everyone all excited about what a monster he could be if he developed offensively, while providing the comfort of a relatively high floor. Thing is, guys rarely take a massive leap forward offensively if they aren't flashing any plus skills in that area by the draft, and the upside of a 1 to 1.5 zone player really isn't that high, even if they're pretty good at what they actually do well.

Not all those players bust as hard as Siemens, of course, but I still don't think that sort of player is worth a 1st round investment when it's not overly difficult to find and develop capable bottom four defenders later in the draft, mostly because the most important two things they need to be able to do are defend and manage the puck adequately, and both those skills are fully capable of being mastered post-draft by anyone with the determination and baseline ability to do so. Even if you're incapable of drafting one, is it really that hard or expensive to fill that role via free agency? In that sense, their floor is something of an illusion as an "asset" because the role they are most likely to end up filling if they don't push past that floor simply doesn't present much value to an organization.

The toughest type of player to find outside the early rounds is a top 6 forward. In my opinion, the time to take your shot at those is with your early picks. A defenseman who is equally adept in all three zones is a high value player as well, but I'd still tend to lean towards the forward in a "tie" situation since those are generally easier to project moving forward.

I agree, and I think Samuelsson could very well have that Duncan Siemens / Logan Stanley thing going on. Alexeyev though is an entirely different monster altogether. I watch him and I don’t see a guy getting by on his size alone, that Rebels team flows through him (and Reichel, who I would also be in favor of drafting). He is a high-end player who, like Kostin, has had question marks because of injury, and then missed additional time when his mother passed away mid-season. I think he is much more than what we’ve seen from him so far, in terms of boxcar stats.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I agree, and I think Samuelsson could very well have that Duncan Siemens / Logan Stanley thing going on. Alexeyev though is an entirely different monster altogether. I watch him and I don’t see a guy getting by on his size alone, that Rebels team flows through him (and Reichel, who I would also be in favor of drafting). He is a high-end player who, like Kostin, has had question marks because of injury, and then missed additional time when his mother passed away mid-season. I think he is much more than what we’ve seen from him so far, in terms of boxcar stats.

I generally agree.

Of the three guys we've mentioned, I think Alexeyev is the only one that should have a shot at going in the first round.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

I generally agree.

Of the three guys we've mentioned, I think Alexeyev is the only one that should have a shot at going in the first round.

Yep. I still want us to go with a forward with the first and probably the second pick, but I would not be upset at aallll with Alexeyev. Guys a horse

 

[EastonBlues22]

@EastonBlues22 what did you selected last year at mod's mock? And year before that?

Most of those old threads were purged from the mod and mock draft boards in the platform move, and even some of the ones that weren't lost all the data since it was formatted and all that was lost as well, so I'll try to go by memory:

2013: Blues didn't have a 1st. Don't even remember if we did a 2nd round, much less who I picked if we did.

2014: Fabbri (nailed it), Pollock, Ryan Donato (pretty good) in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd

2015: I remember liking Forsbacka-Karlsson, but he went the pick before me to Woodhouse. Ended up taking Korostelev in the late 2nd with my only pick, IIRC. There must have been something behind the scenes going on with him because he ended up going in the 7th, which is far below where his skill set should have placed him. Either way, a clear miss.

2016: I was torn between Bitten and Kyrou for the first pick (so very ironic), and ended up going with Bitten because I thought he would be the better goal scorer and two way player. The irony of that sticks with me, since normally I favor the upside direction and if I had this one time, it would have been a pretty nice feather in my cap. I even talked up Kyrou all over the place after I made my pick. Picked Dillon Dube in the 2nd. Tage Thompson went the pick before mine in the 1st to Fenway, IIRC, but I wouldn't have taken him over any of the three guys I mentioned. I thought he was a mid-2nd type of guy at the time, an opinion that proved quite polarizing when I shared it here.

2017: Alklha ran the draft for the Blues since I was away. He took Thomas and Lind in the 1st, then Frost in the 2nd. I thought that was a hell of a draft at the time, and it looks even better now.

 

[EastonBlues22]

The nomination hasn't been confirmed, but it's looking like Foudy will go to Dallas at #44 in the moderator mock tonight.

My short list for consideration: O'Brien, Gustafsson, Morozov, Ylonen, Nordgren, and McLaughlin

Gustafsson does a lot of little things well and seems like a fairly safe projection for an NHL career, but he plays a simple game and isn't really a driving force for his line, so he projects like a complementary player with a capped ceiling...possibly middle-six, likely bottom six.

Morozov seems to be of the same mold...well rounded, but complementary. A bit more mobile than Gustafsson and slightly better offensive skills, but not quite as refined defensively. A bit better chance to be a middle-six guy, but probably also a higher bust potential.

Ylonen has a lot of zone-to-zone value, but he's fairly easily contained to the perimeter from my viewings. I'd like him better if he could leverage his skating into an ability to penetrate the interior of the offensive zone with possession, or if he went out of his way to initiate contact more.

Nordgren makes plays everywhere and has shown very well against his peers, but his current mobility is a concern given his size. I like him a lot. I'm just not sure I like him at #45.

McLaughlin has some nice skills, but the overall impact of those skills seems to be a bit disappointing, especially given the competition level. Not overly physical and seems to have a pretty slight frame.


I think I'm leaning toward O'Brien out of the bunch at the moment. He feels kind of like a midpoint between Gustafsson's safety and Nordgren's boom/bust potential. He has a bit more size and very good mobility, is an absolute puck hound, can work well in space and traffic, isn't afraid to attack the interior, and has a well-rounded offensive skills set. Not being able to gauge the final product against a strong level of competition is a real concern, but nobody is perfect at this point in the draft.

 

[Itsnotatrap]

I’d be thrilled with O’Brien at 45. Recently, I’ve started to think the odds of him being available to us at that spot are pretty low, but I’d be happy if he were.

 

[stl76]

Given available options, I would go with O'Brien as well.

Unrelated, but the more I've read about/watched Wise, the more I like him too. If he's available at 29, he'd be a great pick. Reminiscent of a poor man's Barzal in a lot of ways (ranked very high in years prior to draft, injury predraft, work ethic/attitude, etc).

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

O’Brien or Nordgren

 

[Frenzy31]

Given available options, I would go with O'Brien as well.

Unrelated, but the more I've read about/watched Wise, the more I like him too. If he's available at 29, he'd be a great pick. Reminiscent of a poor man's Barzal in a lot of ways (ranked very high in years prior to draft, injury predraft, work ethic/attitude, etc).

The Hockey News has him ranked at 89. So he will likely be there with our 2nd pick.

Seems like a bit of a late riser. But hockey IQ is expected to be high and you can’t teach hockey IQ. I would complain about the pick. Seems to be similar to Schwartz.

 

[Alklha]

I’d be thrilled with O’Brien at 45. Recently, I’ve started to think the odds of him being available to us at that spot are pretty low, but I’d be happy if he were.

I agree with that, I think he is going early in the second round.

The Hockey News has him ranked at 89. So he will likely be there with our 2nd pick.

Seems like a bit of a late riser. But hockey IQ is expected to be high and you can’t teach hockey IQ. I would complain about the pick. Seems to be similar to Schwartz.

Just had a look at their rankings and there are some interesting selections. I would be very surprised if Denisenko was selected before Kravtsov. I didn't realise that Sean Durzi was rated so highly now, I was hoping that we could pick him up in the fourth round.

If the likes of Alexeyev, O'Brien, McLaughlin & Eriksson are all there at the end of the second then I hope we've got a few second rounds picks after moving the likes of Sobotka.

 

[stl76]

The Hockey News has him ranked at 89. So he will likely be there with our 2nd pick.

Seems like a bit of a late riser. But hockey IQ is expected to be high and you can’t teach hockey IQ. I would complain about the pick. Seems to be similar to Schwartz.

Wow, yeah just took a look at their rankings and there are definitely some interesting ones (HERE they are for those interested). Wise is pretty much a lock for late first/early second IMO. Maybe he falls to the mid-second and we can scoop him up at 45, but I'd be very surprised if he fell to the third round. He seems like more of a riser than faller to me, but who knows.

Funny you mention Wise's high hockey IQ, I was reading JR's mailbag with Bill Armstrong the other day, and B. Armstrong was asked "what are the primary characteristics you look for in a player?" His answer: "Hockey sense...hockey sense is one of the core values you're always looking for."
Guest Mailbag: Blues amateur scouting director Bill...

Most mocks I've been looking at have O'Brien going in the mid second, right in the 40-50 range. He's a great candidate for our #45 OA pick. 29th might be a bit of a reach for him, but if C's like Wise and Dellandrea are already off the board and you're not in love with the other players ranked around there, then I think O'Brien would be a fine pick.

EDIT:

For those interested, I compiled/bookmarked a bunch of free mock drafts/prospect rankings lists. Some are definitely better than others, but figured why not share them? Here they are in no particular order:

The Draft Analyst | 2018 NHL Draft: Final 500 Rankings (May)

NHL Draft prospect rankings: Rasmus Dahlin or Andrei Svechnikov? It's 1A vs. 1B atop 2018 class

Cam Robinson’s 2018 NHL Draft Rankings: Top 115 – April 2018

7th Annual NHL Mock Draft: 2018, Round 1

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/tryamkins-2018-final-mock-draft.2501711

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/articles/tryamkins-may-2018-top-300-draft-rankings.265/

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/tryamkin’s-final-2018-draft-rankings-guide.2503163

Final 2018 Draft rankings: these go to 120 | The Hockey News

2018 Mock Draft (It’s Almost Dahlin Day!)

2018 NHL Draft: Top 100 Prospects Consensus Ranking

2018 NHL Draft: Spring Rankings

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/teemus-2018-nhl-entry-draft-rankings.2502653/

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2018-nhl-draft-–-nhl-central-scouting’s-final-rankings-–-combined.2482001/

OHL Prospects: Final Media/Scout Poll for the 2018 NHL Draft

OHL Prospects: 2018 NHL Mock Draft

2018 NHL Draft Rankings

 

[EastonBlues22]

I did end up selecting O'Brien. He'll need some work defensively and in terms of structure (HS hockey is pretty chaotic), but he should get that in college.

For the record, the selections I've had a hand in so far this year:

Lundestrom #23 - Anaheim (nominated)
Berggren #29 - St. Louis (selected)
Olofsson #31 - Washington (selected)
McIssac #37 - Vancouver (nominated along with Lundkvist; McIssac won the vote)
O'Brien #45 - St. Louis (selected)
Ylonen #46 - Washington (selected)
Lauko #54 - Anaheim (nominated)

I've waffled back in forth on how I select these drafts. Some years I favor who I think the Blues would pick there, and some years I favor who I would choose myself, but usually it's a combination of the two. This year I leaned towards myself.

For other teams, I tend to favor who I think they may pick a little more heavily. I don't think McIssac and Lundqvist were the two best prospects at #37, for example, but Vancouver landed Wahlstrom in the 1st and I thought they would likely select a defenseman in the second since they didn't grab one earlier. They really need some good defenders in their pipeline.

In the same way, since Washington came away with Olofsson (a somewhat safer pick) in the 1st, I thought there was room for a bit of risk with a more dynamic player in the 2nd. Ylonen and Nordgren fit the bill, but Ylonen's speed and zone-to-zone ability are something that I think Washington will need a bit more of down the line.

More than anything, it's just a fun exercise that connects me a bit closer to what's going on with other team's prospect pools and with the texture of the upcoming draft. If you are interested in those things and have the time, I highly recommend you do a little prep and try one.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Pronman and Cam Robinson (Dobber) are the only two that I know of that have Wise in their top 31 prospects, so you can make a strong argument that it's early relative to the consensus.

That said, the late first through mid second (or thereabouts) seems to be pretty fluid in this draft. It wouldn't shock me if Wise snuck into the first.

I would be mildly surprised, however, if the Blues took him.

I'm curious as to why you think the Blues wouldn't select Wise? I don't want to come off as insulting when I ask that, I'm just generally curious.

Do you think the Blues wouldn't value his ability as much or do think that Wise would selected earlier?

 

[EastonBlues22]

I'm curious as to why you think the Blues wouldn't select Wise? I don't want to come off as insulting when I ask that, I'm just generally curious.

Do you think the Blues wouldn't value his ability as much or do think that Wise would selected earlier?

I think Wise will go late first to early second, and I wouldn't be upset at all if the Blues took him (depending on who else was available, of course).

I'd just be mildly surprised if they sprung for a 5'10'' center in the first round. It's not his ability that's the concern. It's his size. Historically speaking, they rarely draft a guy that tall (and almost never one that's shorter) in the first three rounds, and when they do it's usually a guy who projects as a winger at higher levels.

For better or worse, the Blues seem to like having size in the middle of the ice. We've seen that in their lineups, and we hear it when they target/draft assets as well, with Thompson and Sanford being the two most recent examples even though neither really has much of a background at center. I'm not going to look up all the quotes, but there's more than a few to that effect.

Back when Thompson was drafted:

"Tage is a big player," said Tim Taylor, the Blues director of player development. "You don't usually get centerman that are (6-foot-5), the height and the physical presence that he brings. He's a player that our scouts feel that his size, and he can bring a lot of speed, especially in the Western Conference. We're always looking for bigger players, especially up the middle, and you don't see 6-5, 6-6 players up the middle too often."

Armstrong when Sanford was acquired:

“He’s got really good hands, can make plays…He’s played left wing in Washington and a lot of coaches do put centermen on the wings as they enter the league, but we certainly see him as a centerman moving forward…We’re hoping to get a versatile forward that can certainly play on our power play and play higher up on our group.”

There's just not much precedent within the organization for that sort of pick. Maybe they've adjusted that philosophy recently, but I tend to doubt it since the guys in charge are still pretty much the same.

 

[stl76]

I think Wise will go late first to early second, and I wouldn't be upset at all if the Blues took him (depending on who else was available, of course).

I'd just be mildly surprised if they sprung for a 5'10'' center in the first round. It's not his ability that's the concern. It's his size. Historically speaking, they rarely draft a guy that tall or shorter in the first three rounds, and when they do it's usually a guy who projects as a winger at higher levels.

For better or worse, the Blues seem to like having size in the middle of the ice. We've seen that in their lineups, and we hear it when they target/draft assets as well, with Thompson and Sanford being the two most recent examples even though neither really has much of a background at center. I'm not going to look up all the quotes, but there's more than a few to that effect.

Back when Thompson was drafted:

"Tage is a big player," said Tim Taylor, the Blues director of player development. "You don't usually get centerman that are (6-foot-5), the height and the physical presence that he brings. He's a player that our scouts feel that his size, and he can bring a lot of speed, especially in the Western Conference. We're always looking for bigger players, especially up the middle, and you don't see 6-5, 6-6 players up the middle too often."

Armstrong when Sanford was acquired:

“He’s got really good hands, can make plays…He’s played left wing in Washington and a lot of coaches do put centermen on the wings as they enter the league, but we certainly see him as a centerman moving forward…We’re hoping to get a versatile forward that can certainly play on our power play and play higher up on our group.”

There's just not much precedent within the organization for that sort of pick. Maybe they've adjusted that philosophy recently, but I tend to doubt it since the guys in charge are still pretty much the same.

You make a valid point about the team historically valuing size, particularly at C, and Wise did measure exactly 5'10" tall at the combine recently...but he also weighed in at 195.3 lbs. The guy is thick (for lack of a better word).

Let's look at some of the Blues' recent early round selections. Here are the height/weight measurements from the NHL combine prior to these player's draft:

	Height	Weight
Robby Fabbri	5'10.25"	170
Ivan Barbashev	6'0"	180
Vince Dunn	5'11.75"	187
Tage Thompson	6'5.5"	195.22
Jordan Kyrou	6'0"	169.48
Robert Thomas	5'11.5"	192.5
Klim Kostin	6'2.5"	207.18
Jake Wise	5'10"	195.3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Wise would be the shortest (shorter than Fabbri by .25 inches) but he's also be second only to Kostin for heaviest. Which is kinda crazy that the kid weighs more than Thompson did, even if only VERY slightly. Regardless, I don't think Wise would be considered an outlier in this group.

 

[EastonBlues22]

You make a valid point about the team historically valuing size, particularly at C, and Wise did measure exactly 5'10" tall at the combine recently...but he also weighed in at 195.3 lbs. The guy is thick (for lack of a better word).

Let's look at some of the Blues' recent early round selections. Here are the height/weight measurements from the NHL combine prior to these player's draft:

	Height	Weight
Robby Fabbri	5'10.25"	170
Ivan Barbashev	6'0"	180
Vince Dunn	5'11.75"	187
Tage Thompson	6'5.5"	195.22
Jordan Kyrou	6'0"	169.48
Robert Thomas	5'11.5"	192.5
Klim Kostin	6'2.5"	207.18
Jake Wise	5'10"	195.3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Wise would be the shortest (shorter than Fabbri by .25 inches) but he's also be second only to Kostin for heaviest. Which is kinda crazy that the kid weighs more than Thompson did, even if only VERY slightly. Regardless, I don't think Wise would be considered an outlier in this group.

I like Wise, so you don't need to convince me.

Height (assuming a reasonable frame) is usually more critical than weight at this stage, so teams tend to focus on those at the draft. Players will almost universally add weight over the years as they train post-draft...usually a significant amount (20+ lbs). It's much rarer to add a significant amount of height post-draft, and almost impossible to project it with any accuracy.

We'll see how it goes. Teams are usually slow to change, but it does happen. I'm not holding my breath on this one, though.

 

[Ranksu]

transefered post in correct thread.

Players rise and fall as the season moves along. That's just the nature of the beast.

Someone like Foudy might not have been drafted at all in January with only 7 points in 33 games halfway through this season. A strong second half later and he probably doesn't make it out of the 2nd round.

Well that fight against how impressive Nordgren was at WJC and puts out good numbers at junior Liiga in Finland.

Intesting to see how far Kupari falls now, he was at ranking around ~13 winter and now he has fall amost behind ~20 spot.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Well that fight against how impressive Nordgren was at WJC and puts out good numbers at junior Liiga in Finland.

What do you mean it fights against it?

There's a good chance Nordgren could go in the second round. If he was a better skater, possibly even the first. I doubt he was in anyone's preseason top 100. He's moved up a ton this year.

 

[Stealth JD]

How many rounds is the mod mock draft? Ryan O’Reilly would be a good 4th round target...because...irony. (In the Alannis Morissette sense)

 

[EastonBlues22]

How many rounds is the mod mock draft? Ryan O’Reilly would a good 4th round target...because...irony. (In the Alannis Morissette sense)

It varies from year to year based on how quickly we move along. This year it looks like we'll be stopping after two rounds.

 

[Ranksu]

What do you mean it fights against it?

There's a good chance Nordgren could go in the second round. If he was a better skater, possibly even the first. I doubt he was in anyone's preseason top 100. He's moved up a ton this year.

yeah it was bad comparison.

 

[Ranksu]

What you guys think of dropping down with #29 ---> islanders #41 and #43? Is that value wise good to both teams or favor one of Blues or Islanders?


Or Blues #29 ---> Rangers #39 and #48?

I know Blues #29 ---> Wings #33 and #36 is too much from Wings and we would need to add.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

What you guys think of dropping down with #29 ---> islanders #41 and #43? Is that value wise good to both teams or favor one of Blues or Islanders?


Or Blues #29 ---> Rangers #39 and #48?

I know Blues #29 ---> Wings #33 and #36 is too much from Wings and we would need to add.

I'd rather trade one of our million 3rd liners to add a 2nd than to trade back.