Prospect Info: 2018 Draft Thread (STL #1 via WPG is 29th OA)

[Ranksu]

ISS on Kupari

Skill Two-way center with very good hands and offensive instincts. NHL Potential 2nd line center that will chip in offensively. Style Comparison Sebastian Aho

 

[stl76]

Reading up on goalies a bit today, and Ivan Prosvetov and Akira Schmid stand out to me as interesting options with potential who will probably be available in later rounds.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Want an overwhelming amount of draft information? Okie dokie:

I took the average ranking for every player ranked for this year’s draft at Christmas, at May, and up until now. I measured the difference between the 3 rankings (by summing the differences between the first two measurements and the second two), and then ranked every player based on their final average ranking. Clear as mud?

Final rankings with total difference in rankings over the year. Positive values indicate risers, negative values are fallers. How that translates into positive/negative draft value should be looked at on a case-by-case basis. I.e. a faller could represent good value for us later, and a riser could be bad.

Definitely clear as mud, but the effort put into it is laudable, regardless.

Maybe you could clear up the methodology a bit by showing the work for a hypothetical player that was ranked 25th at Christmas, 15th in May, and 10th currently?

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Definitely clear as mud, but the effort put into it is laudable, regardless.

Maybe you could clear up the methodology a bit by showing the work for a hypothetical player that was ranked 25th at Christmas, 15th in May, and 10th currently?

Mr. Hypothetical would be +15 in that scenario (+10 change +5 change). If he had gone the opposite direction it would be -15. I did it that way because in many cases, guys would lose points and then “recover” them down the stretch, or vice-versa. The decimal points exist because the scores are averages of their rankings. So for example, somebody could gain 20.5 points between Xmas and the end of the season, and then lose 5.5 points in rankings after that, so they would have arrived at their final ranking (out of the 306 players listed) by gaining 15 net points over their pre-Xmas ranking.

To put it yet another way: Dahlin gained .05 points over his Xmas rating, because there were more rankings pre-Xmas that had Svechnikov at #1. He was never not ranked #1 on average, but his average increased by .05, meaning he solidified his #1 ranking by that much. The unseen metric in all of this is the list of actual averages, which I could include if it is helpful. In many, many cases (especially the further down you go in the list), guys’ averages are higher than their rank on the list. So somebody that is at #100 on this list could actually have an average of like 85 “points,” but because there are 15 guys ahead of him with rankings of 84.5, 84.6, 84.7, etc, he falls at #100 on the list.

I feel like I probably just confused you more XD

 

[Stealth JD]

I don't know if I agree with this sentiment:, "a faller could represent good value for us later, and a riser could be bad."

I'd think the closer to the draft we get, the better more 'in-focus' the picture becomes of the player. I don't know how much value there was for Pittsburgh in picking Angelo Esposito at #20 in 2007. Afterall he was the pre-season #1 prospect heading into the '06-'07 season...then began to get passed by his peers. He fell for a reason. I'd be more inclined to focus on the risers - the guys who have elevated their games, or answered some uncertainties over the end of the regular season and playoffs. I'd tend to focus on guys who are continuing their upwards trajectory, rather than stagnate or regress. Even if a guy fell in the rankings due to injury or illness, I'd be hesitant to use a high pick on the guy, simply because of the lost development time. I don't really see falling in the rankings as much of a good thing, unless it's a case of an unfounded fear or correctable/coachable issue.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

I don't know if I agree with this sentiment:, "a faller could represent good value for us later, and a riser could be bad."

I'd think the closer to the draft we get, the better more 'in-focus' the picture becomes of the player. I don't know how much value there was for Pittsburgh in picking Angelo Esposito at #20 in 2007. Afterall he was the pre-season #1 prospect heading into the '06-'07 season...then began to get passed by his peers. He fell for a reason. I'd be more inclined to focus on the risers - the guys who have elevated their games, or answered some uncertainties over the end of the regular season and playoffs. I'd tend to focus on guys who are continuing their upwards trajectory, rather than stagnate or regress. Even if a guy fell in the rankings due to injury or illness, I'd be hesitant to use a high pick on the guy, simply because of the lost development time. I don't really see falling in the rankings as much of a good thing, unless it's a case of an unfounded fear or correctable/coachable issue.

That’s a totally reasonable perspective. I think what’s most interesting to me is the guys who started falling... after they stopped playing games. That to me might represent an opportunity to take advantage of “over thinking” a player’s value. If they were first rounders for most of the year, but we can grab them at 45 (like Samuelsson?), that is a steal in my mind. I think the “delta” is interesting in that it’s a reason to look into the why. That’s why I left it open to interpretation. But yes, in general, you want to see guys improving their rankings over time, and not losing ground.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

Slightly OT but does anyone know if there are any legal streams/ways to view the draft? I’ll be at work till 10:30 CST so I’d like to follow it live on my phone if possible.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Slightly OT but does anyone know if there are any legal streams/ways to view the draft? I’ll be at work till 10:30 CST so I’d like to follow it live on my phone if possible.

Supposedly there will be a live stream available through the NBC Sports App.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

Supposedly there will be a live stream available through the NBC Sports App.

Yeah I googled it afterwards (which I probably should’ve just did that first lol) and saw that. Trying to get that set up. Hopefully the WiFi it my work holds up

 

[DatDude44]

Berrgren or Dellandrea At 29, O’Brien or wise at 45(unless like an olofsson or Addison drops), kurashev in the 3rd, Sharangovich in the 4th and nico gross in the 5th would be my personal A+ draft(given our picks) 6th and 7th I say take a flyer on atleast one tendy.

yes, I’m supremely bored rn lol

So the draft took a huge turn, I can’t believe we were able to nab Bokk and with so many teams reaching, there’s actually a realistic chance we get my guy Berggren at 45!!!

Don’t care about any pucks after that, a Bokk and Berggren draft given our picks is a GRAND SLAM. Tho I have a feeling we go with a dman. If so, I want Addison or tychonik, don’t mind Samuelson either.

 

[DatDude44]

Said it earlier in the thread I would be shocked if Bokk is available in that range. I would prefer the Blues to target more defense over offense this draft but if Bokk is there with the Winnipeg pick I take him no questions asked.

sorry for bumping......was going through some old stuff

 

[simon IC]

Samuelson would be awesome!