NCAA: 2018 College Football Playoff/New Year's Six Discussion

[Sports Enthusiast]

I don’t think you’re getting my point.

The committee has already factored in those wins for Ohio State, and they still have Oklahoma ahead of them.

As it currently stands, they have Oklahoma ahead of Ohio State. Of the two games this weekend, Oklahoma is playing a better team, according to the committee. So if Oklahoma were to beat the better team this weekend, how in the world would Ohio State vault in front of them?

Makeup of the team? Better chance to compete with potential opponent? This Oklahoma D cant stop anyone in the Big 12, why would they suddenly get it againt Alabama? Michigan statistically had the best defense, Ohio State scored 55 if you don't count the blocked punt. Now which is more important? Playing NO D or showing you can score on theoretically a solid D?

I also think money and ratings are everything. Watching college hoops now and they give each Georgia and Ohio State a better chance at making it. Georgia at 35%, OSU at 48% and Oklahoma at 33% Can I explain this? They want people to watch Sunday, obviously. Had they replaced Ohio State and Oklahoma in those rankings it wouldnt be shocking. You have one team thats been inconsistent all year and one team that hasnt played D. They are both flawed. One team has the best offense but can't stop a fly. One team has been really inconsistent all season yet does have a QB who threw 41 TDs this year. For as much shit as the OSU offense has gotten this year they have overachieved with the records Haskins broke.

Can I explain those predictor percentages? No, other then I think Georgia is expected to lose, maybe they feel the same about Oklahoma. Granted its a computer simulation but i'm sure theres a lot that goes into it. I don't think anybody wants Oklahoma in the playoff. We all klnow the objective is to win and outscore your opponent but should a team be rewarded because they have a great offense but cant truly stop anybody? It's not about defense as much as it is being somewhat well rounded. The Big 12 top to bottom is not as good as the Big Ten. I'm not praising the Big Ten, it has some awful team but I mean the top few teams in the Big 10 theres more than in the Big 12. The Big 12 is Oklahoma, Texas and WVU. The rest were so so teams. Iowa State needed a huge comeback to beat K State at home and they are only a 7 win team. If you swapped schedules I still think Ohio State goes 11-1 or so. I'm not sure about Oklshoma going to a team like Penn State. Nobody in the Big 12 plays D.

At the end of the day I think OSU can give Alabama a better game. I think the committe knows this. We all know what Saban will do with 5 weeks to study Murray. He will be one dimensional. If you take away his running ability that will hamper Oklahoma's offense. Haskins is a pocket passer who will run like Cardale Jones if he has to but doesnt want to. He runs straight forward. A big part of murray's game is running and side to side.

 

[c9777666]

Penn State ahead of Washington State? Really?

LSU/Florida.... Florida beat LSU who beat Georgia. I get that.

But PSU? Really?

 

[HoseEmDown]

UCF still hasn't lost.

 

[Tony Romo]

think every conference needs to start scheduling cupcakes and play less conference games.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

think every conference needs to start scheduling cupcakes and play less conference games.

Like the good ol' days.

 

[OhCaptainMyCaptain]

Makeup of the team? Better chance to compete with potential opponent? This Oklahoma D cant stop anyone in the Big 12, why would they suddenly get it againt Alabama? Michigan statistically had the best defense, Ohio State scored 55 if you don't count the blocked punt. Now which is more important? Playing NO D or showing you can score on theoretically a solid D?

I also think money and ratings are everything. Watching college hoops now and they give each Georgia and Ohio State a better chance at making it. Georgia at 35%, OSU at 48% and Oklahoma at 33% Can I explain this? They want people to watch Sunday, obviously. Had they replaced Ohio State and Oklahoma in those rankings it wouldnt be shocking. You have one team thats been inconsistent all year and one team that hasnt played D. They are both flawed. One team has the best offense but can't stop a fly. One team has been really inconsistent all season yet does have a QB who threw 41 TDs this year. For as much **** as the OSU offense has gotten this year they have overachieved with the records Haskins broke.

Can I explain those predictor percentages? No, other then I think Georgia is expected to lose, maybe they feel the same about Oklahoma. Granted its a computer simulation but i'm sure theres a lot that goes into it. I don't think anybody wants Oklahoma in the playoff. We all klnow the objective is to win and outscore your opponent but should a team be rewarded because they have a great offense but cant truly stop anybody? It's not about defense as much as it is being somewhat well rounded. The Big 12 top to bottom is not as good as the Big Ten. I'm not praising the Big Ten, it has some awful team but I mean the top few teams in the Big 10 theres more than in the Big 12. The Big 12 is Oklahoma, Texas and WVU. The rest were so so teams. Iowa State needed a huge comeback to beat K State at home and they are only a 7 win team. If you swapped schedules I still think Ohio State goes 11-1 or so. I'm not sure about Oklshoma going to a team like Penn State. Nobody in the Big 12 plays D.

At the end of the day I think OSU can give Alabama a better game. I think the committe knows this. We all know what Saban will do with 5 weeks to study Murray. He will be one dimensional. If you take away his running ability that will hamper Oklahoma's offense. Haskins is a pocket passer who will run like Cardale Jones if he has to but doesnt want to. He runs straight forward. A big part of murray's game is running and side to side.

Ohio State’s only chance is if they absolutely wipe the floor with Northwestern, and Oklahoma struggles against Texas.

 

[OhCaptainMyCaptain]

So, let’s go crazy for a second and say...

Ohio State loses. Oklahoma loses. Georgia gets beat by a lot.

Who gets the #4 spot?

If those three teams were to lose, I’d guess Georgia keeps the spot if they stay competitive with Alabama. But I’m not sure what’ll happen if they get blown out.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

UCF still hasn't lost.

They also still havent played anyone worth the time of day.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

So, let’s go crazy for a second and say...

Ohio State loses. Oklahoma loses. Georgia gets beat by a lot.

Who gets the #4 spot?

If those three teams were to lose, I’d guess Georgia keeps the spot if they stay competitive with Alabama. But I’m not sure what’ll happen if they get blown out.

Florida, it's time for that 3 loss champ!

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

Ohio State’s only chance is if they absolutely wipe the floor with Northwestern, and Oklahoma struggles against Texas.

Why should they not struggle with Texas? The D has only got worse since that game.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

think every conference needs to start scheduling cupcakes and play less conference games.

The playoff was designed so people like Saban would grow a pair, schedule a tough game, lose but if good enough rebound. You saw this with Oklahoma and Ohio State. These cupcakes are nothing but money makers for these FCS schools that end up mostly doing nothing vital with it. You can't have less conference games with the sizes they are now.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

Penn State ahead of Washington State? Really?

LSU/Florida.... Florida beat LSU who beat Georgia. I get that.

But PSU? Really?

Who did Washington State really beat though? They lost their toughest game AT HOME.

 

[HoseEmDown]

They also still havent played anyone worth the time of day.

Sure but who has Oklahoma really played? UCF beat a 10 win Cincinnati while Oklahoma best win is over 8 win WVU. Oklahoma has beat a bunch of 6-7 win Big 12 teams. Michigan who's ahead of them beat Penn State then a bunch of 6-7 win Big 10 teams. The ACC and PAC 12 are weak and Notre Dame has half their wins against them. UCF hasn't played a tough schedule but they still haven't lost.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

Sure but who has Oklahoma really played? UCF beat a 10 win Cincinnati while Oklahoma best win is over 8 win WVU. Oklahoma has beat a bunch of 6-7 win Big 12 teams. Michigan who's ahead of them beat Penn State then a bunch of 6-7 win Big 10 teams. The ACC and PAC 12 are weak and Notre Dame has half their wins against them. UCF hasn't played a tough schedule but they still haven't lost.

For the record i'm as anti ND as you can get. Even the military schools aren't independent anymore. ND really isnt even ND anymore and the landscape of college football definitely is not. They don't get the best athletes, hell they don't even get the best athletes in the Midwest or north, they don't even get better athletes collectively than OSU. Sadly they are nothing but a name brand. They're a money maker and thats the only reason why their undefeated gets special treatment. ND didn't capitalize off the TV thing until the 90s when they got on NBC. Before that no station held exclusive rights to home games. Now its justified for why they don't and won't ever join a conference.

Does Oklahoma go undefeated in Confrerence USA? Probably. The real questioh is what would UCF do in the Big 12?

None of these teams had hard schedules. Alabama mostly had a cupcake schedule. Their toughest game was a 1 loss at the time LSU team. They amazingly did not play Florida or Georgia. The SEC West was incredibly weak this year. Auburn and Miss State were pretty much dumpster fires. A&M could compete somewhat, they almost took Clemson to OT but then they played Florida I think at home and looked fairly bad. It was either them or Miss St

 

[Kyle McMahon]

So, let’s go crazy for a second and say...

Ohio State loses. Oklahoma loses. Georgia gets beat by a lot.

Who gets the #4 spot?

If those three teams were to lose, I’d guess Georgia keeps the spot if they stay competitive with Alabama. But I’m not sure what’ll happen if they get blown out.

I think at that point the committee would finally be forced to let in UCF, assuming they beat Memphis. If they didn't, then there is no point to continue ranking non-P5 teams at all, because it would be obvious that they are not allowed into the playoffs.

But I really can't see Ohio State losing to Northwestern. There is a half decent chance Texas beats Oklahoma though, in which case Ohio State will somehow manage to sneak in again after their obituary had already been written. f***ing Maryland.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

UCF's playoffs hopes died when Milton went down.

 

[DanielPlainview]

If Georgia loses to Bama by 3 or less, they should remain #4

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

I think at that point the committee would finally be forced to let in UCF, assuming they beat Memphis. If they didn't, then there is no point to continue ranking non-P5 teams at all, because it would be obvious that they are not allowed into the playoffs.

But I really can't see Ohio State losing to Northwestern. There is a half decent chance Texas beats Oklahoma though, in which case Ohio State will somehow manage to sneak in again after their obituary had already been written. ****ing Maryland.

To be clear there was never an intent to allow in non P5 teams. They were just a pawn into getting a playoff. Now, if it goes to 8 teams i'm sure you'd see like this year, they'd put in UCF and they'd reward them with Alabama, as in no real hope.

It's not that they aren't allowed it's just that they aren't as deserving because the P5 teams they are lobbying against would likely crush their schedules too.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

If Georgia loses to Bama by 3 or less, they should remain #4

Why? They lost fairly decently to an LSU team that is due to the QB mainly average. LSU lost to Florida by a few and Georgia beat Florida.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

To be clear there was never an intent to allow in non P5 teams. They were just a pawn into getting a playoff. Now, if it goes to 8 teams i'm sure you'd see like this year, they'd put in UCF and they'd reward them with Alabama, as in no real hope.

It's not that they aren't allowed it's just that they aren't as deserving because the P5 teams they are lobbying against would likely crush their schedules too.

If you go undefeated, you are more deserving than a 2-loss team who just finished losing their CCG. Most 2-loss teams either didn't beat anybody substantive (hence the 2 losses), or they did but then lost to one of the 7 or 8 mutts on their schedule. Is there anybody on 12-0 Clemson's schedule that UCF wouldn't have beaten? Texas A&M is the only possibility. UCF would also easily win 10/12 games Alabama played, A&M and LSU being the only potential trouble spots.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Why? They lost fairly decently to an LSU team that is due to the QB mainly average. LSU lost to Florida by a few and Georgia beat Florida.

Because neither OU or OSU could do it. If Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Georgia are the 4 best teams, then so be it.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

Because neither OU or OSU could do it. If Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Georgia are the 4 best teams, then so be it.

Unless they ditch conference play and round robin the top 10 playing off for part of the season we will never truly know who the best teams are because the schedules arent created equal. I think ND for example is a special case. They struggled a bit with teams like USC, Pitt and Northwestern. Their ACC schedule wasnt hard. An underachieving VT team was probably their toughest scheduled ACC team.

 

[DanielPlainview]

I think we have a pretty solid approximation of who the best teams are

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

If you go undefeated, you are more deserving than a 2-loss team who just finished losing their CCG. Most 2-loss teams either didn't beat anybody substantive (hence the 2 losses), or they did but then lost to one of the 7 or 8 mutts on their schedule. Is there anybody on 12-0 Clemson's schedule that UCF wouldn't have beaten? Texas A&M is the only possibility. UCF would also easily win 10/12 games Alabama played, A&M and LSU being the only potential trouble spots.

Syracuse and UCF would have been a track meet. I think Syracuse is honestly better than Texas A&M. But we'll never get to know.

On the Alabama thing, schedule matters, if they played at Auburn and at Miss State i'm not for certain UCF would also win. At home they probably do. But homefield gives the underdog extra help.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

I think we have a pretty solid approximation of who the best teams are

Based on what?

Would Clemson/Alabama have different results had they been in the other's conference? Alabama probably not but swap them then and Oklahoma with the offensive Big 12. I wouldnt say this is even close to one of the best Bama defensive squads in the Saban era.