2018 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[Hivemind]

Thoughts on Jake Wise at 31? @Langway

 

[EroCaps]

Boqvist had dinner with the Caps at the combine. Would be a perfect fit for him.

Boqvist looks like a stud, and they should be so lucky.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Love how we're assuming Grubi to the isles for the 12OA. I mean if it happens I'll be pumped...just don't see it. I'd rather focus on hit or miss guys with the 31st. We have a pretty good track record of late round hit or miss. Mahoney will target a boom or bust euro and given his history I trust him.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think that 12th overall is a dream, but who knows?

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

This mock draft is the stuff of dreams.

We have a trade to announce... Washington Capitals select Jesperi Kotkaniemi with the No. 11 Pick.

 

[Langway]

Further to that Stauffer point:

Thoughts on Jake Wise at 31? @Langway

A little early for me. He has seemingly stopped growing and he'll kind of need to be an absolute buzzsaw at that height to stick at center. I'm not sure his 200 foot game is on that level. He's a good offensive player but seems more like a middle six tweener predominantly offensive-minded type. He could grow more of a complete game over time but there's enough doubt there to where I'd pass. My guess is he's one of those guys that goes between their first two picks as-is.

The other thing about Boqvist potentially sliding is you'd think it would up the trade value a bit of those picks at 11/12. I'd be somewhat surprised if Zadina falls to nine as well but it's possible if DET/CHI are as locked onto those two picks as they seem to be and a few teams simply prefer others. Zadina does have some work to do on his skating. Back to Boqvist, though, I think both he and Kravtsov are at the level of prospect to where bundling Grubauer with 31 makes sense. Ideally you'd prefer it to be 46 instead or just a straight swap outright but should those conditions be there I'd go for it. Both have star potential and I'm not sure that could be said for the back-end of the first round candidates. Denisenko or Berggren maybe but that might be it and that's largely based on raw offensive ability alone.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Here's an interesting question to ponder:

If you're Pierre Dorion, do you make the pick at 4, or send it to Colorado?

I'm thinking you've got to send it to Colorado. There's not a guy at 4 that's worth risking a (very real) chance at Jack Hughes.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Here's an interesting question to ponder:

If you're Pierre Dorion, do you make the pick at 4, or send it to Colorado?

I'm thinking you've got to send it to Colorado. There's not a guy at 4 that's worth risking a (very real) chance at Jack Hughes.

 

[Langway]

Agreed. Maybe it would come down to Dobson or Tkachuk with the later perhaps someone they could throw into the lineup next season and be able to handle himself. But if they're trading Karlsson and operating with the same budget it will be hard to believe they won't be a bottom five team at least. With the lottery setup the way it is, it would be irresponsible not to but who knows. I could see them really liking Dobson or Tkachuk because they're right in front of them and either trying to re-negotiate the conditions with Colorado or being unrealistic that they won't be bad next season. It would send a bad signal to their fanbase to give it up at a time when maybe that alone helps rationalize making a bad situation worse.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I can't remember a team plummeting as hard as Ottawa has plummeted. From being one goal away in 2OT in the ECF to a complete disaster and lottery team for the foreseeable future on the ice and a total dumpster fire off the ice. Crazy how quickly things can change.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

The real depressing thing to wonder if you're a Sens' fan is would any of it matter with Melnyk in charge?

Best thing might to be to continually kick the can down the road for futures and wait for the NHL to force him to sell (unlikely), or someone to make him an offer he can't refuse (is Blackberry dude still desperate for a team?)

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Which team has the bleaker future: Montreal or Ottawa?

 

[RandyHolt]

I feel like a Russian and a Swede are almost easily predictable for us at this point.

What site is best to review combined north american / euro prospects? TIA.

 

[Langway]

Bob McKenzie's final rankings will be out at noon. He bases them on feedback from ten scouts, eight of which are head scouts. It's consistently the most reliable list out there and should give a pretty good sense of industry thinking for the first round and prime options at 46. From there I've liked Canucks Army's dataviz, though that's probably info overload for a brief glance type dive. There are many guides that can be bought electronically. The Hockey News Draft Preview is fairly cheap--and by now probably a little outdated--but they have a quote from a scout on each player in their first 62, a top 100, articles on the best in class and some info on draft classes down the line. There are more expensive and exhaustive guides but for a fairly brief guide THN's not bad. I think it's only a couple bucks on Zinio.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Which team has the bleaker future: Montreal or Ottawa?

Sheesh. I dunno.

From a player-personnel standpoint, I think it's Montreal. Not much in the prospect pool (yet, this draft should help), basically one very valuable tradeable asset (Pacioreetty, unless they're willing to move Gallagher), over $18 million locked up in retirement contracts for the next 7 seasons+ (plus the Alzner contract), and a fully incompetent GM.

Ottawa has much more attractive assets on the trade market (Karlsson, Duchene, Stone, Ceci), IMO, and has a better prospect pool (Dahlen, Bowers, Brown, Formenton). They do have one bad contract in Ryan, buts its much shorter term than Montreal's. That said, they have the worst owner in the sport, and given the fact that the organization knew about the Karlsson/Hoffman situation prior to shopping Hoffman, I'm skeptical Dorion has any good will with GMs around the league.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

Which team has the bleaker future: Montreal or Ottawa?

Montreal has the much more inept GM, but it's easier to get rid of an inept GM than an inept owner like Melnyk. Tough call. If Karlsson is dealt before this season then they'll be picking two great drafts to tank for, in terms of top end talent. On the other hand, I think Bergevin is more disillusioned into believing his roster is better than it really is, and won't go for a rebuild like he should. They already have enough respectable players as it is for me to think they aren't bad enough to be in the dumpster, and will rather be in that 22-25 range in the league. So, I think Montreal is in deeper shit.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

I'm viewing Grubauer's value being comparable to Frederik Andersen when Lou and the Leafs acquired him from the Ducks for the 30th and a second rounder. Andersen at the time of the trade was the same age that Grubauer is now, Andersen had about 20 more NHL games under his belt, but Grubauer's overall stats are better than Andersen's when he was traded.

Grubauer to Buffalo for their 2nd (#32 in '18) and their 2nd in 2019
Grubauer to Detroit for the first rounder (#30) that they got from Vegas in the Tatar deal (wouldn't that be great that Gruby cost McPhee a first rounder in a way) and Detroit's second rounder in 2019 that they obtained from the Islanders (just to stick it to the Islander fans on the main boards discussion about Grubauer)
Grubauer to St. Louis for the first rounder (#29) that they got from Winnipeg and Zach Sanford. Sanford returns and moves in to the 3rd line LW position that's vacated by Burakovsky when he's traded this off season.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Starting price for me would be a mid-first this draft, then any first for next draft, then multiple later picks.

 

[Hivemind]

A little early for me. He has seemingly stopped growing and he'll kind of need to be an absolute buzzsaw at that height to stick at center. I'm not sure his 200 foot game is on that level. He's a good offensive player but seems more like a middle six tweener predominantly offensive-minded type. He could grow more of a complete game over time but there's enough doubt there to where I'd pass. My guess is he's one of those guys that goes between their first two picks as-is.

His height isn't great (5'10"), but he's listed at 185-190lb.s, so I don't particularly consider him a small player. For reference, Travis Konecny is listed at 5'10" 175lb. Stylistically, Wise reminds me a lot of the "protoypical" American forwards, like Nick Schmaltz and Derek Stepan. Pass-first forward who can play with a lot of tempo, but also isn't afraid to drive the net for greasy goals and has a lot of hockey IQ. He's played both the Nick Backstrom spot and in the slot on the powerplay. Skates well enough, although probably won't be considered an exceptional skater at the NHL level. His height and lower body strength could be a bit of a concern in the defensize zone, I guess, but he competes hard and backchecks well.

He was a top-5 candidate for this draft a year ago, but his stock fell partially due to injuries this year. But when he did play, he produced well. I think his mocks have fallen further than they should because of his previous hype ("fool me once"-type stuff).

I've been frustrated with their over reliance on NCAA tracked players in the past half dozen drafts or so, but I would support going for Wise at 31 this year.

 

[Langway]

Admittedly my perception on Wise is at least partially influenced by near-term need whereas if they were more desperate for a skilled center organizationally I might more readily overlook some of my concerns. Certainly they could still use one given what's in the system but he hasn't wowed me to the point where I'd take him in part as a future asset at least. I'd tend to consider a winger like Berggren over him because he'll have less of a burden/transition and brings a bit more consistency in his game offensively. Both will have to make adjustments to be as effective against men but at least with Berggren at wing it won't be as significant defensively. Wise is a willing forechecker with a good stick and anticipation but I find his physicality a bit awkward for a player that already looks to be fairly advanced physically. I'm sure he'll get even leaner, more explosive and physical in time but that's mainly where a Konecny comparison falls a bit short for me (plus Konecny is a winger). His motor is good but not that strong in every sense. His skating needs to get a bit better for him to get through the neutral zone quicker and be more dominant offensively. I think he's a fringe first rounder so it wouldn't be much of a reach but I'd tend to go with Dellandrea, Berggren, O'Brien or maybe Hallander over him. It's not so much that he's been overanalyzed IMO as that he was really advanced physically early on and hasn't quite taken that next step as an all-around prospect. The production came on in the second half but I'd generally prefer a number of players that are a little more assertive in some senses.

 

[Langway]

McKenzie's final rankings. There's a TSN rundown tonight at 7:30 IINM and it should be posted at some point.

First impressions: Denisenko (still), Bokk & McLeod that high and the NTDP defensemen Miller, Wilde & Samuelsson that low among the top 31. Also Foudy inside the first round with O'Brien & Olofsson outside.

If the draft were to play out like that up to 31 I'd have to predominantly consider Samuelsson, O'Brien & Berggren. Samuelsson could fit the profile of a shutdown LD going forward with plus frame and PK ability, with the key perhaps being how scouts feel about his athleticism, skill level and all-around anticipation/sense. At 46, Ginning & Bahl would fit a similar profile post-Orpik with a deceptive amount of skill at times but also similar questions as with Samuelsson. Marchenko, Lauko, Nordgren or Hallander would be strong organizational fits of the Euro forward variety. I could see Fehervary being a riser and Johansson wouldn't be a bad fit. Wise at 52 is a bit surprising. Not sure I'd take Nordgren over him but I'd probably still take those Euros first.

 

[Cush]

Guessing it will be one of Samuelsson, Lundkvist, Sandin or Alexeyev (Russian and plays in the WHL? All the checkmarks)

 

[Corby78]

Anyone heard when the NHLPA will vote on the growth factor? from what I've seen in the past its been anywhere from June 16-22nd, really can't work any details until we get that ironed out first.

 

[Langway]

- These lists are always an inexact science, but the marginal difference between prospects ranked from Nos. 21 through 65 is really slim this season.

Outside of the goalies the top 65, pretty much every prospect got some consideration as a top 31 pick. It’s going to be a really scattershot affair beyond the top 20.

Could be a good case for teams to move down unless they're married to Their Guy. That should make it particularly unpredictable. And fun.

I'd be kind of surprised if they outright targeted another defenseman in the first round. I could see the fit with Samuelsson, particularly if they're sold on his upside. I could also see it with Alexeyev in terms of his frame and upside but less so with those two smaller Swedes. Sandin comes across as too similar to Djoos in some respects and Lundkvist probably profiles as more of a two-way guy without a true standout strength. I'd also wonder if they did that what it might say about their thoughts on the AHL rookie seasons from Johansen & Siegenthaler, two players they already invested fairly high picks on.

After the top 20, I'd still tend to think that Lundestrom, Dellandrea, the three NTDP d-men and Sandin will be off the board prior to 31 at least. It kind of sucks that Denisenko & Bokk seem to be locks to go earlier but I do like Foudy, O'Brien, Berggren & Alexeyev. If they slip, there is some intrigue with McLeod (albeit as one of the older players available) and Thomas (even though as CHLers maybe they're less likely targets). So I'd mainly be narrowing it down to those four fringe first rounders unless it really does open up and someone slides (aside from Sandin).

 

[HTFN]

Which team has the bleaker future: Montreal or Ottawa?

Montreal.

I mean, I don't know Ottawa's contract situation nearly as well, but it'd give me fits as a GM (or even a fan) looking at the length of the Weber, Alzner, and Petry contracts. The backbone of the offense likely needs rebuilt from scratch, and even if you get things going relatively quickly on those two fronts it's likely going to come right around the time Price's game becomes a coin flip.