2018 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[hockeykicker]

You mean jump up in the first round?

Islanders have two first round picks (11/12), I could see packaging Grubauer + their current first round pick (31).

As in another first rounder
Meant more like pick 46 plus a second next year or pick 46 plus a 3rd and 4th

Without players

 

[Langway]

As in another first rounder
Meant more like pick 46 plus a second next year or pick 46 plus a 3rd and 4th

Without players

Very doubtful. A third might move them up 5-10 spots but I'd be inclined to stay put. Maybe if they acquire other assets but among the top 55 or so I'd be more inclined to stay put. It's a good, deep group.

CanucksArmy.com has some really insightful dataviz in their draft profiles. Highly recommend checking them out.

 

[Cush]

Risers from Fisher's Top 100: https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-draft-rankings-10-risers-june-2018/

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

I was curious, so I looked at the past 15 drafts to see what sort of late round picks (after 3rd) were impact players (top-6 F, top-4 D, 1G, elite bottom-6er).

2003
Matt Moulsen, W, NCAA
Jaro Halak, G, Slovak Jrs.
Dustin Bufflin, D/W, WHL
Toby Enstrom, D, Swe
Joe Pavelski, C, USHL (college bound)

Europe - 2, CHL - 1, NCAA (or bound) - 2

2004
Mark Streit, D, Swiss
Pekka Rinne, G, Fin
Troy Brouwer, W (*ducks*), WHL
Czech Roman Polak, D, Czech
Mikhail Grabovski, F, Russia
Kris Versteeg, W, WHL
Ryan Callahan, W, OHL

Europe - 4, CHL - 3, NCAA - O

2005
Patric Hornqvist, W, Swe
Anton Stralman, D, Swe
Darren Helm, F, WHL
Niklas Hjalmarsson, D, Swe
Keith Yandle, D, USHS

Europe -3 , CHL - 2, USHS - 1

2006
Matthieu Perreault, C, QMJHL

CHL - 1 (yikes, this was a bad late draft)

2007
Justin Braun, D, NCAA
Carl Gunnarson, D, Swe
Jake Muzzin, D, OHL
Jamie Benn, W, BCHL

Europe - 1. CHL - 1, NCAA -1, BCHL - 1

2008
Jason Demers, D, QMJHL
Cam Atkinson, F, USHS (NCAA bound)
Jared Spurgeon, D, WHL
Gustav Nyqusit, F, Swe
TJ Brodie, D, OHL
Braden Holtby, G, WHL

Europe - 1, CHL - 4, NCAA - 1

(Continued in a new post)

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

2009
Erik Haula, F, USHS(NCAA-bound)
Anders Lee, F, USHS (NCAA-bound)
Mike Hoffman, F, QMJHL
Sami Vatanen, D, Fin
Mattias Ekholm, D, Swe
Craig Smtih, F, USHL (NCAA-bound)

Europe - 2, CHL - 1, NCAA - 3

2010
Fredrik Andersen, G, Den
Mark Stone, W, WHL
Brendan Gallagher, W, WHL
John Klingberg, D, Swe
Phillip Grubauer, G, OHL

Europe - 2, CHL - 3, NCAA - 0

2011
Ondrej Palat, F, QMJHL
Josh Manson, D, BCHL (NCAA-bound)
Andrew Shaw, F, OHL
Johnny Gaudreau, USHL (NCAA-bound)
Europe - 0, CHL - 2, NCAA - 2

2012 (some projection involved here)
Christian Djoos, D, Swe
Matt Benning, D, AJHL (NCAA-bound)
Connor Brown, W, OHL
Colin Miller, D, OHL
Ben Hutton, D, CCHL (NCAA-bound)
Connor Hellybuyck, G, NAHL (NCAA-bound)
Alexander Kerfoot, F, BCHL (NCAA-bound)
Jaccob Slavin, USHL (NCAA-bound)
Erik Gustaffson, D, Swe

Europe - 2, CHL - 2, NCAA - 5

2013 and beyond (early returns, obviously)
Will Butcher, D, USNDTP (NCAA-bound)
Gustav Forsling, D, Swe
Danton Heinen, C, BCHL (NCAA-bound)
Viktor Arvidsson, w, Swe
Markus Nutivaara, D, Fin
Jesper Bratt, F, Swe

Europe - 4, CHL - 0, NCAA - 2

(One more post)

 

[islandersdynasty]

This is probably old news, but I heard a rumor of Grubauer to the Isles for one of their 1st rounders? That would be amazing...

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Your overall totals:
Europe - 21, CHL - 19, NCAA/NCAA-bound - 16, Other - 2

My conclusion is to hit Europe hard late in the draft (which is really no surprise, but nice to get some numbers on it). Given the overall draft rate of Europe vs. the CHL, the European hit rate for impact late rounders is very high. It also seems the NCAA route is really trending over the past 5-7 years.

 

[EroCaps]

Kotkaniemi, Kravstov, Wilde, and Miller are safe bets based on my half-assed evaluation. If the Caps manage to deal Grubby and come away with one of these players, they're golden.

Boqvist and Kupari have upside, need seasoning.

 

[usiel]

After digging through a lot of the links posted (thanks everyone) digging the prospects from 20-70 and seems like a decent possibility of some upside. Need moar second rounders.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Kotkaniemi, Kravstov, Wilde, and Miller are safe bets based on my half-assed evaluation. If the Caps manage to deal Grubby and come away with one of these players, they're golden.

Boqvist and Kupari have upside, need seasoning.

Kotkaniemi probably goes top 5 and Kravtsov top 15

 

[Hivemind]

I mean, the rumors are a pretty important part. Can't disregard potential work ethic issues.

He also definitely fits your "home run" criteria for their pick at 31.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

He also definitely fits your "home run" criteria for their pick at 31.

Certainly does, but you don't draft him "regardless of the rumors". You take those seriously and evaluate whether they're legit and/or fixable.

 

[Hivemind]

Certainly does, but you don't draft him "regardless of the rumors". You take those seriously and evaluate whether they're legit and/or fixable.

That's fair.

I also don't think he makes it to 31. While a lot of teams may be turned off by the off-the-ice issues, it only takes one team to draft him. Somebody is going to covet his talent enough to grab him. I could see Philadelphia taking him at 19, given that Hextall made comments today about wanting more right shooting blueliners and that he would be "shocked" if they didn't draft at least a couple defensemen.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

That's fair.

I also don't think he makes it to 31. While a lot of teams may be turned off by the off-the-ice issues, it only takes one team to draft him. Somebody is going to covet his talent enough to grab him. I could see Philadelphia taking him at 19, given that Hextall made comments today about wanting more right shooting blueliners and that he would be "shocked" if they didn't draft at least a couple defensemen.

Wasn't Hextall vehemently against Ho-Sang?

 

[Langway]

The Bobcast on the draft. He notes some changes in the makeup at the top of the draft with more of a muddled and expanded top tier. That tracks pretty well with the Kotkaniemi talk but he also mentions Hayton & Kravtsov in that top group of twelve, both of which have cropped up into the top ten of a few lists and had some mention lately as possibly sneaking into the top ten at the draft. If true, that would further add to the value of NYI's second first rounder at 12 should someone like Boqvist potentially still be available.

I'd be surprised if Merkley does go in the first round. Six of McKenzie's ten scouts polled do have him there but three of them have him at 31 as more of a token inclusion and even the ones that rank him higher have him there based on talent and admit secondary factors will be influential. The problem with a team with multiple first rounders taking him is that I'm not sure any of them altogether have the right culture for him. Chicago might...that would be the most interesting fit in the first round IMO. By about 50 or so his talent ought to outclass the field but there are reportedly a few teams that have him off of their list altogether. Hard to know what may be misinformation in this stage but it wouldn't be too shocking. HockeyProspect basically has him as a No Draft in part because of feedback from one of his previous coaches. Most of his flaws can be coached out of him but is he a coachable player? To date, he hasn't been and he's also shown some disturbing tendencies when it comes to selfishness and mental toughness. His tendency to quit on plays should really tick scouts off. He was a top ten level player a year ago based on his skill set. Maybe he is being overly dissected under the microscope in the Toronto area but the concerns are legit. He hasn't shown to be a legit top ten talent in all facets and I haven't been so impressed by his raw ability to discount the warts. He's got good skill, skating and hockey IQ for the most part but the mental toughness aspect and off-puck competitiveness would lead me to look elsewhere at least until the early second round. By that point I think it's justifiable but he's also going to need the right fit.

Another guy I haven't mentioned a great deal is Alexander Alexeyev. He's a guy that could sneak into the first round and perhaps be an option at 31. A Russian LD that played in the WHL? Kind of have to have him on the radar with that profile. I could see him perhaps being the sort of big all-situation horse with skill that they'd consider at 31. I generally think they'll target forwards just from a value and cap management standpoint but they've tended to stick to their board. If they think he's BPA at 31 then it's probably not going to matter much that they've already invested in Johansen & Siegenthaler with high picks recently.

 

[PB12]

Looking at the higher draft rankings. Wanted someone who could help OV and put pucks in the net, but appears to be a lot of playmakers in this draft. Who do you want if the Caps get 12?

 

[usiel]

Looking at the higher draft rankings. Wanted someone who could help OV and put pucks in the net, but appears to be a lot of playmakers in this draft. Who do you want if the Caps get 12?

Kupari for me.

 

[Langway]

Looking at the higher draft rankings. Wanted someone who could help OV and put pucks in the net, but appears to be a lot of playmakers in this draft. Who do you want if the Caps get 12?

It depends on how the draft plays out but I would hope for either Boqvist or Kravtsov, barring someone like Bouchard falling. Wahlstrom would be the best fit in terms of goal-scoring but he seems like a lock to go at 8 or 9 at the latest. Should Boqvist, Kravtsov and the rest of the expected top ten go beforehand I'd be open to moving down slightly and gaining another second rounder if possible. I don't have a clear favorite after those two. It seems like Hayton is a riser but with center less pressing a need I'm not sure he's as valuable as a Lundestrom or Veleno plus a second would be a bit later. Farabee would be a relatively safe NA winger option and Smith has some upside as an all-around LD prospect but Boqvist & Kravtsov carry more impact potential. After them it's more of a matter of taste.

 

[Kuz]

Your overall totals:
Europe - 21, CHL - 19, NCAA/NCAA-bound - 16, Other - 2

My conclusion is to hit Europe hard late in the draft (which is really no surprise, but nice to get some numbers on it). Given the overall draft rate of Europe vs. the CHL, the European hit rate for impact late rounders is very high. It also seems the NCAA route is really trending over the past 5-7 years.

The european numbers will likely increase to if Kaprizov finally comes over and also Gusev. Then you have Saros that will be a starter sooner or later and Shestyorkin when he comes over. I feel like of the canadians Athanasiou might deserve a mention still a young player that can break out, like we still hope Burakovsky and Vrana will.

 

[Kuz]

Looking at the higher draft rankings. Wanted someone who could help OV and put pucks in the net, but appears to be a lot of playmakers in this draft. Who do you want if the Caps get 12?

The best goalscorers after Zadina and Svechnikov are probably Kravtsov and Wahlstrom. All 4 might be gone before 12th, but maybe Kravtsov doesnt climb as much as some rankings say or Wahlstrom drops a little.

 

[Cush]

Article on Ross Mahoney and Darrell Baumgartner (western scout): Mahoney and Baumgartner share in Washington Capitals’ Stanley Cup win

 

[EroCaps]

Looking at the higher draft rankings. Wanted someone who could help OV and put pucks in the net, but appears to be a lot of playmakers in this draft. Who do you want if the Caps get 12?

Kravtsov would be a very solid pick, then.

Akil Thomas would also be a great add.

 

[Langway]

Some other players I hope are off the board by 31 aside from Merkley: Sandin, McLeod & McIsaac. I haven't been a huge fan of Thomas but at 31 it's more understandable. He's got some sense and upside but I doubt he sticks at center and he's just a bit boring overall. He's competent but he's going to need to add some edge to his game.

With Wilde not being invited to Team USA's summer junior development camp and him having a bit of a rough U18s, I wonder if he may slide a bit. I have him at 19 but that's right around where it really opens up so who knows. It's still unlikely that he falls to 31 but there's some risk there and I could see teams opting for Miller's raw upside or Samuelsson's steadiness over him when it comes to NTDP d-men.

My guess on the prime options making it to 31 are Denisenko or Olofsson. Both have nice upside and fit their typical Euro profile but also had some offensive production issues whether it was Denisenko in the MHL or Olofsson at the U18s.

 

[VictorLustig]

Boqvist had dinner with the Caps at the combine. Would be a perfect fit for him.

 

[Hivemind]

Boqvist had dinner with the Caps at the combine. Would be a perfect fit for him.

With what pick? Caps don't pick until 31 currently, and Boqvist will be long gone by then. Heck, even if they trade up to 11/12 via Grubauer, Boqvist is probably already gone.

 

[Langway]

There seems to be a belief that Boqvist may be slipping on boards. McKenzie's post-lottery rankings had him sixth and it seems his final rankings will have him between 10-12 so it's not out of the question. He was the third ranked D in his more recent ranking but seems to have been passed by Hughes and is now firmly fifth. It only takes one team but it is interesting that the Oilers media guy (Stauffer) has been talking up Kravtsov & Smith over Boqvist as a possibility at 10. I think it's really the Edmonton pick where it may open up. We know the top two picks already but Kotkaniemi, Dobson, Tkachuk, Hughes, Zadina, Wahlstrom & Bouchard seem more or less locks for the top ten. Again, we'll see but it may only take one team depending on how the board plays out or maybe a team like Vancouver trading the pick to a team with different needs mixing things up.

One of Kravtsov/Hayton/Smith following the top nine Boqvist is there at 11 and another goes and he'd be there at 12. Stranger things have happened. It does seem that his two reported concussions this season have hurt his stock and he's also dyslexic. I don't think that's a big deal but it might be part of the reason why the interview process is particularly important. It's also likely true that Kravtsov really came on strong late and the rest have solidified their spots to a greater extent (particularly Hughes at the World Championships & Dobson at the Memorial Cup). Boqvist didn't have a bad U18 but he did get injured and not finish the tournament. Overall, there may also be some concern that he maybe hasn't dominated in all facets relative to his skill level but I'd say that also goes for a number of those players that will still go top ten.