GDT: 2018 Canada Day, Free Agent Day, Extension Day, Tavares Day, Trade Day

[raideralex99]

He had 40 PIM in 80 games last year. That's not so bad.

You forgot when you are wearing a Jets jersey ... the refs tend to watch you more closely.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

Miles... err, kilometers or whatever odd ball system y’all use up there.

Furlongs.

 

[Tommigun]

Thanks for the audio @ICdave

I’m not panicking. Stats did well while he was here and it kinda stings he’s gone to the team we lost to, but I’m in the camp that believes the Armia trade was designed to free up cap for the young guys that’ll need new contracts rather than re-signing Stastny. I’m looking forward to seeing Roslovic with more ice time, and seeing how Trouba and Morrissey’s contract situations unfold.

Don’t waste your summers stressin boys.

Can you maybe explain the optics of the Armia trade to me, because I still don’t understand why it was necessary? I was under the impression that the cap crunch would come next year, when Mason was coming off the books. What benefits are there in freeing a bit over 3M (after signing another backup) for the next season? Couldn’t we have waited one more year with signing one of our RFAs?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Player	AAV
Connor, Kyle	1,775,000	Scheifele, Mark	6,125,000	Wheeler, Blake	5,600,000
Ehlers, Nikolaj	6,000,000	Little, Bryan	5,291,666	Laine, Patrik	3,575,000
Perreault, Mathieu	4,125,000	Roslovic, Jack	1,137,500	Petan, Nicolas	725,000
Copp, Andrew	1,100,000	Lowry, Adam	3,500,000	Tanev, Brandon	925,000
Morrissey, Josh	5,500,000	Trouba, Jacob	6,500,000
Kulikov, Dmitry	4,333,333	Byfuglien, Dustin	7,600,000
Chiarot, Ben	1,400,000	Myers, Tyler	5,500,000
Morrow, Joe	1,000,000	Poolman, Tucker	925,000
Hellebuyck, Connor	5,500,000
Brossoit, Laurent	650,000			Total cap hit:	78,787,499
				Cap Ceiling	79,500,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Bolded are the important RFAs that need to be signed with contract estimates
Underlined are the important players that are free agents, RFA or UFA, next season

I don't know if I got the AAV right with bonuses for Connor, Roslovic, and Laine. It's assuming they hit the same performance bonuses that they hit this season, Roslovic could very easily hit more bonuses if he plays a bigger role.

Assuming the cap goes up to 84 million next season there's zero chance they can re-sign Myers with Laine, Connor, and Wheeler up for extensions.

With Myers gone that leaves a little over 10 million to give raises to Connor, Wheeler, and Laine.
Maybe Wheeler takes a super team friendly deal and signs the same contract that Scheifele's on, but he's never come across as a guy that would leave money on the table, he understands that it's a business.

10,712,501 (Cap space assuming Myers is off the books and the cap rises to 84m)
-1,900,000 (Wheeler raise to 7.5m)
-5,425,000 (Laine raise to 9m)

Leaves about 3.4 million to sign Connor and Copp.

My math (and current contracts) might be wrong, Capfriendly's disabled their armchair GM system right now.

I have 1 more player - Dano at 925k. +925k
I have Petan at 900k instead of 725. His AAV was 863,333 last year. +175k
I have Roslovic at 1,106,666 instead of 1,137,500 -30.834k
I have Copp at 1mil instead of 1.1mil -100k
I have Lowry at 3.2 instead of 3.5 -300k
I have Tanev at 900k instead of 925k -25k
I have Morrissey at 3.2mil instead of 5.5 mil -2300k
I have Trouba at 6mil instead of 6.5 -500k
I have Poolman at 1mil instead of 925k +75k
I have Helle at 5.75mil instead of 5.5mil +250k
I have xxx backup goalie at 1.5mil instead of 650k for Brossoit +850k

Difference of -980.834 my estimate should be below yours.
My total is 78,356,998 for 23 players.
Yours is 78,787,499 for 22 players.
The discrepancy is 430.501k. Not huge but, but I don't see where the addition is different.

I think I will try plugging your numbers into my spreadsheet. I am probably making a transcription error here. Like one of my minuses should be a plus or something.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I forgot to include the Stuart buyout which adds another ~500k to mine, that might be the difference?

OK, that gets it very close to agreeing.

 

[surixon]

Can you maybe explain the optics of the Armia trade to me, because I still don’t understand why it was necessary? I was under the impression that the cap crunch would come next year, when Mason was coming off the books. What benefits are there in freeing a bit over 3M (after signing another backup) for the next season? Couldn’t we have waited one more year with signing one of our RFAs?

Please take a look below. With long term deals to RFA's we are barely below it. I also offloaded Chariot because he makes too much for a depth player. The trade was necessary to clear space.

Forwards
Line	Left Wing	Center	Right Wing	Total
1	Connor, Kyle	Scheifele, Mark	Laine, Patrick
	1,775,000	6,125,000	3,575,000	11,475,000
2	Ehlers, Nick	Little, Brian	Wheeler, Blake
	6,000,000	5,291,666	5,600,000	16,891,666
3	Perrault, Mathiau	Roslovic, Jack	Vesalainen, Kristian
	4,130,000	1,106,666	1,106,666	6,343,332
4	Copp, Andew	Lowry, Adam	Tanev, Brandon
	1,000,000	3,000,000	800,000	4,800,000
Extras	Petan, Nik	Dano, Marko
	700,000	850,000		1,550,000
Froward total				41,059,998
Defense
Pair	Left Defense	Right Defense
1	Morrissey, Josh	Trouba, Jacob
	5,250,000	6,500,000		11,750,000
2	Myers, Tyler	Byfuglien, Dustin
	5,500,000	7,600,000		13,100,000
3	Kulikov, Dmitry	Poolman, Tucker
	4,333,333	800,000		5,133,333
Extras		Morrow, Joe
	-	1,000,000		1,000,000
Defense Total				30,983,333
Goalies	Starter	Backup
	Hellebuyck, Connor	Brossoit, Lauent
	6,000,000	650,000		6,650,000
Buyout	Stuart, Marc
	583,333			583,333
Grand Total				79,276,664
Estimated Cap Ceiling				79,500,000
Cap space remaining				223,336

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You forgot when you are wearing a Jets jersey ... the refs tend to watch you more closely.

So double his PIMs then. About 1 min/game. Not great but not terrible either.

 

[Duke749]

Can you maybe explain the optics of the Armia trade to me, because I still don’t understand why it was necessary? I was under the impression that the cap crunch would come next year, when Mason was coming off the books. What benefits are there in freeing a bit over 3M (after signing another backup) for the next season? Couldn’t we have waited one more year with signing one of our RFAs?

The reason people are saying next year is the real cap crunch is because we will have to move out a good player or two to fit Laine and Connor under the cap. This year there is just a bonus issue which someone else will have to explain as I’m not as familiar with that.

 

[Whileee]

Can you maybe explain the optics of the Armia trade to me, because I still don’t understand why it was necessary? I was under the impression that the cap crunch would come next year, when Mason was coming off the books. What benefits are there in freeing a bit over 3M (after signing another backup) for the next season? Couldn’t we have waited one more year with signing one of our RFAs?

Depends on what the Jets do with their RFAs. For example, if they go long-term on both Morrissey, Trouba and Hellebuyck, they would likely have needed to shed salary to make the necessary cap space. Now, they might have more flexibility to go long term with key RFAs. We also need to consider that Armia was going to get a raise, so they likely saved cap space by moving him. My preference would have been to move Myers for young assets, but understand the Jets not wanting to do that until they are sure about Trouba.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I disagree, but I’m hoping your right. I just heard about the Karlsson rumour, that’s massive. Could be why the parted with Perron, I think they would have easily signed him 4x4.

If our players improve enough over the summer (hopefully Little improves massively), I’m definitely agreeing with you.

They were clearly a fluke last year. 16 of their top 18 scorers had career years. That includes a couple who didn't have much career NHL behind them but that is still crazy.

If they add Karlsson on top of Stastny, they might be legit - if quite a few of those career years are indicative of the future.

 

[surixon]

They were clearly a fluke last year. 16 of their top 18 scorers had career years. That includes a couple who didn't have much career NHL behind them but that is still crazy.

If they add Karlsson on top of Stastny, they might be legit - if quite a few of those career years are indicative of the future.

It depends on how much they gut their team to get him. They likely also have to take on Ryan's contract which will hurt their cap flexibility going forward. Ryan is also slow and along with Stastny will reduce the effectiveness of their biggest weapon last season and that was team speed.

 

[Hunter368]

lets see Toronto welcomed 80 points in the front door while 110 points walked out the back door. tampa stayed the exact same as they were when the season ended when Washington beat them. so no they did not get any better then us.

They also promoted multi promising prospects. They are easily a top 5 team.

 

[DowntownBooster]

I was just watching the CBC News Network for some Canada Day coverage from the Nation's capital in Ottawa and they had some 'breaking news' which turned out to be Jonathan Tavares signing with the Leafs. Good God! Are they serious? That's breaking news for the country? I can't believe how much the host Michael Serapio likes to talk about the Leafs. I remember during the playoffs when the Jets were doing really well and the sports segment came on and Serapio was talking to Signa Butler about the NHL playoffs. She mentioned the Jets and he quickly said "okay, but let's talk about the Leafs because it really is about them". It's almost as though they think Canada only has one NHL team. I thought CBC was a National network but they're no better than TSN at times.

 

[surixon]

They also promoted multi promising prospects. They are easily a top 5 team.

We where a top 5 team without Paul and will also be promoting some promising prospects to the team full time next season with a couple more AHL allstar prospects likely knocking at the door trying to break in. Not so sure why you are so depressed here. Why don't we give some of our elite young talent a chance to augment the roster.

 

[Tommigun]

Depends on what the Jets do with their RFAs. For example, if they go long-term on both Morrissey, Trouba and Hellebuyck, they would likely have needed to shed salary to make the necessary cap space. Now, they might have more flexibility to go long term with key RFAs. We also need to consider that Armia was going to get a raise, so they likely saved cap space by moving him. My preference would have been to move Myers for young assets, but understand the Jets not wanting to do that until they are sure about Trouba.

Thanks everyone for the explanations. I still don’t understand why they didn’t just move Myers and Armia instead though. Yes the Trouba situation is still in the air but moving Armia would have netted us picks instead of losing them, and same with Myers. We’d be a bit thinner on D but at least would have a better backup goalie, and a far brighter future. I kinda “get” the trade but don’t “understand” it. I honestly think it was made to make space for Stastny (with a plan to move Myers as well, which now won’t happen). I just don’t buy arguments that the cap shed trade is better than trading Myers and Armia and am a bit puzzled by it.

 

[Hunter368]

We where a top 5 team without Paul and will also be promoting some promising prospects to the team full time next season with a couple more AHL allstar prospects likely knocking at the door trying to break in. Not so sure why you are so depressed here. Why don't we give some of our elite young talent a chance to augment the roster.

Likely bc we fell short and haven’t done anything to grow outside of organic growth that everyone does.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Likely bc we fell short and haven’t done anything to grow outside of organic growth that everyone does.

Did u look at who was out there today? Tavares Stastny and a bunch of garbage .

 

[Hunter368]

Did u look at who was out there today? Tavares Stastny and a bunch of garbage .

Again nothing to do with just FA.....other avenues.

 

[surixon]

Likely bc we fell short and haven’t done anything to grow outside of organic growth that everyone does.

You would have had to count on organic growth whether we kept Paul or not. Had we kept him we would have had to lose another key piece or two and you would have had to count on a kids to grow into the role vacated by the other pieces leaving. So what exactly would have been the difference other than preferring one vet over another couple of them? The team was always going to be a net minus on paper given our cap crunch. Given what Paul signed for the Jets would have had to bridge Morrissey and move Myers as Perrault alone wouldn't have cut it. If you preferred to keep Paul and move out Myers plus something else that is fine but we where never going to be a net positive in terms of external additions.

I am excited to see what Roslovic and potentially Petan/Ves can do. We will still be one of you youngest and most talented teams in the league next year.

 

[Moon Man]

They were clearly a fluke last year. 16 of their top 18 scorers had career years. That includes a couple who didn't have much career NHL behind them but that is still crazy.

If they add Karlsson on top of Stastny, they might be legit - if quite a few of those career years are indicative of the future.

I don’t buy that at all. Fluke doesn’t get you 5th in the NHL and to the Stanley cup finals. This team will be good for quite some time, especially considering their great depth and prospect pool coming up. One thing about them is they have players who play well together in a system that compliments that. Look at Ladd-Little-Wheeler = Little plays lights out, all 3 play well together. Look at Ehlers-Little-Laine = Little looks lost and things like offence become a conundrum for him. Stastny was a player injected into that line and everything seemed to click (especially when compared to Little). This is what Vegas has achieved and is a big part of why they demolished us 4 straight.

If we are serious about competing for a cup, we will most likely have to go through Vegas (whether they become seeded in our division, us in there’s or we meet in the WCF again). We will have to become able to beat them. Something must be done to last years second line (Little/27/29) whether that’s just the players becoming much much better, or a lineup/shakeup that compliments itself much better.

 

[Deedog99]

You would have had to count on organic growth whether we kept Paul or not. Had we kept him we would have had to lose another key piece or two and you would have had to count on a kids to grow into the role vacated by the other pieces leaving. So what exactly would have been the difference other than preferring one vet over another couple of them? The team was always going to be a net minus on paper given our cap crunch. Given what Paul signed for the Jets would have had to bridge Morrissey and move Myers as Perrault alone wouldn't have cut it. If you preferred to keep Paul and move out Myers plus something else that is fine but we where never going to be a net positive in terms of external additions.

I am excited to see what Roslovic and potentially Petan/Ves can do. We will still be one of you youngest and most talented teams in the league next year.[/QUOTE

It's all about playoffs from here on in. You need luck also to be injury free come may and june

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Let see.

How far back did this off season get us?

Still have all our young guys we drafted? Check.
Had to move some salary and cost us a depth player? Check.
Have loads of depth players in the pipeline still? Check.
Find us a backup goalie with some NHL experience? Check. Pending
Going into next season with all our D depth? Check.
Still going to be top 5 in goal scoring? Check.
Should I worry? Probably not.

Fixed it for ya'.

The implication of getting a backup with some NHL experience is that it includes stopping pucks.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It depends on how much they gut their team to get him. They likely also have to take on Ryan's contract which will hurt their cap flexibility going forward. Ryan is also slow and along with Stastny will reduce the effectiveness of their biggest weapon last season and that was team speed.

Good points. I assume Ott will want futures - which Vegas has quite a few of. Ryan can still be a useful player, just horribly overpaid. Just 4 years to go.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

They also promoted multi promising prospects. They are easily a top 5 team.

Who are these multi promising prospects? I think they brought up the last of them last year. What do they have left? Liljegren is about it, no?

 

[Duke749]

I don’t buy that at all. Fluke doesn’t get you 5th in the NHL and to the Stanley cup finals. This team will be good for quite some time, especially considering their great depth and prospect pool coming up. One thing about them is they have players who play well together in a system that compliments that. Look at Ladd-Little-Wheeler = Little plays lights out, all 3 play well together. Look at Ehlers-Little-Laine = Little looks lost and things like offence become a conundrum for him. Stastny was a player injected into that line and everything seemed to click (especially when compared to Little). This is what Vegas has achieved and is a big part of why they demolished us 4 straight.

If we are serious about competing for a cup, we will most likely have to go through Vegas (whether they become seeded in our division, us in there’s or we meet in the WCF again). We will have to become able to beat them. Something must be done to last years second line (Little/27/29) whether that’s just the players becoming much much better, or a lineup/shakeup that compliments itself much better.

You’re banking on a lot of things going right for a second straight season and that is really hard to do with so many guys having career years. Do you really think it wise to just assume that’ll happen again?

Also, biggest reason Vegas got by us was Fluery. No other reason comes close. You really think he repeats that again?