NFL GDT: 2018 AFC Championship Game: (1) Kansas City Chiefs vs (2) New England Patriots

[Therick67]

Which is only 2 games, as opposed to 6 games against the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins.

The point is, they've beaten everyone. Go ahead and try to put qualifiers on it..

 

[Harry22]

Which is only 2 games, as opposed to 6 games against the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins.

Say they go 6-0 against the Bills, Jets and Dolphins.

Seasons in the Brady-Belichick era, they have finished 12-4 or better 66% of the time (12 of 18 seasons). That means they have finished 6-4 or better against any other team in the NFL. Now that assumes they go 6-0 against those teams. In reality they have gone 6-0 only twice in 18 seasons (2007 and 2012). So that means, the vast majority of their seasons, they have finished 7-3 or better against opponents not in their division and that does not include the playoffs which improve on those stats.

Take a seat with that division crap.

 

[Harry22]

Actually I was curious so here it goes. Season by season breakdown of record vs AFC East and record vs everyone else:

2001: 4-2 vs AFC East; 7-3 vs everyone else (11-5 total)
2002: 4-2 vs AFC East; 5-5 vs everyone else (9-7 total)
2003: 5-1 vs AFC East; 9-1 vs everyone else (14-2 total)
2004: 5-1 vs AFC East; 9-1 vs everyone else (14-2 total)
2005: 5-1 vs AFC East; 5-5 vs everyone else (10-6 total)
2006: 4-2 vs AFC East; 8-2 vs everyone else (12-4 total)
2007: 6-0 vs AFC East; 10-0 vs everyone else (16-0 total)
2008: 4-2 vs AFC East; 7-3 vs everyone else (11-5 total)
2009: 4-2 vs AFC East; 6-4 vs everyone else (10-6 total)
2010: 5-1 vs AFC East; 9-1 vs everyone else (14-2 total)
2011: 5-1 vs AFC East; 8-2 vs everyone else (13-3 total)
2012: 6-0 vs AFC East; 6-4 vs everyone else (12-4 total)
2013: 5-1 vs AFC East; 7-3 vs everyone else (12-4 total)
2014: 4-2 vs AFC East; 8-2 vs everyone else (12-4 total)
2015: 4-2 vs AFC East; 8-2 vs everyone else (12-4 total)
2016: 5-1 vs AFC East; 9-1 vs everyone else (14-2 total)
2017: 5-1 vs AFC East; 8-2 vs everyone else (13-3 total)
2018: 5-1 vs AFC East; 6-4 vs everyone else (11-5 total)

Bold denotes Super Bowl seasons
Italic denotes perfect 6-0 record vs AFC East

Total record vs AFC EAST: 85-23; 78.7 WIN%
Total record outside division: 143-37; 79.4 WIN%

WIN% better outside the division

As you can see, in most season, their winning% is actually better outside the division. Also, besides 2002 and 2005, they have finished above .500 against teams not in their division with the most popular record being 8-2, 9-1 or better (11 of 18 seasons).

Thank you, next.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

They haven't lost on the road in the AFC CG when the opposing QB isn't Peyton Manning.

I think they actually lost to Peyton Manning's corpse last game, not sure if that still counts.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Actually I was curious so here it goes. Season by season breakdown of record vs AFC East and record vs everyone else:

2001: 4-2 vs AFC East; 7-3 vs everyone else (11-5 total)
2002: 4-2 vs AFC East; 5-5 vs everyone else (9-7 total)
2003: 5-1 vs AFC East; 9-1 vs everyone else (14-2 total)
2004: 5-1 vs AFC East; 9-1 vs everyone else (14-2 total)
2005: 5-1 vs AFC East; 5-5 vs everyone else (10-6 total)
2006: 4-2 vs AFC East; 8-2 vs everyone else (12-4 total)
2007: 6-0 vs AFC East; 10-0 vs everyone else (16-0 total)
2008: 4-2 vs AFC East; 7-3 vs everyone else (11-5 total)
2009: 4-2 vs AFC East; 6-4 vs everyone else (10-6 total)
2010: 5-1 vs AFC East; 9-1 vs everyone else (14-2 total)
2011: 5-1 vs AFC East; 8-2 vs everyone else (13-3 total)
2012: 6-0 vs AFC East; 6-4 vs everyone else (12-4 total)
2013: 5-1 vs AFC East; 7-3 vs everyone else (12-4 total)
2014: 4-2 vs AFC East; 8-2 vs everyone else (12-4 total)
2015: 4-2 vs AFC East; 8-2 vs everyone else (12-4 total)
2016: 5-1 vs AFC East; 9-1 vs everyone else (14-2 total)
2017: 5-1 vs AFC East; 8-2 vs everyone else (13-3 total)
2018: 5-1 vs AFC East; 6-4 vs everyone else (11-5 total)

Bold denotes Super Bowl seasons
Italic denotes perfect 6-0 record vs AFC East

Total record vs AFC EAST: 85-23; 78.7 WIN%
Total record outside division: 143-37; 79.4 WIN%

WIN% better outside the division

As you can see, in most season, their winning% is actually better outside the division. Also, besides 2002 and 2005, they have finished above .500 against teams not in their division with the most popular record being 8-2, 9-1 or better (11 of 18 seasons).

Thank you, next.

The craziest stat is that 11-5 is the Pats' WORST record in 10 years

 

[Harry22]

The craziest stat is that 11-5 is the Pats' WORST record in 10 years

And it was this year, with the Miami miracle. That's insane. Fan bases would kill for 3-4 straight seasons of at least 12 wins, let alone 10. No wonder they are all butt hurt.

 

[robertmac43]

Please not the Pats, please, please, please! I just want something different come Super Bowl day!

 

[Habsawce]

The Moon will turn red over Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night

It's an omen!

 

[c9777666]

Will be interesting to see how the cold will play into things. At this point, it's going to be about 11 degrees on Sunday. It's been cold in Foxborough this week and I'm sure Belichick is
taking full advantage of it...

Or this could be like that Favre/Eli NFCCG where the grizzled cold weather QB finally meets his match and has a frozen clunker

 

[GabeTravels]

Thanks to the leg up gained from being able to go 6-0, 5-1, or 4-2 in their division every season because they enjoy the benefits of having three perpetually inept teams in their division, the Patriots benefited from a lot of bye week and home field advantage in the playoffs over the years. From the time Belichick drafted Brady, the Patriots have only had to play seven road games in the playoffs. In those seven road games, the Patriots are 3-4, and one of those wins featured Bledsoe as the QB. Brady is 2-4 on the road in the playoffs.

Except...when you look at the facts...the AFC East is the 3rd best division in football since 2002 (the realignment).

The argument is that, expect for the Patriots, the division is crap. So we need to remove the Patriots from the equation looking at the records. To be fair, we also have to remove the division winner from every division.

The two years the Patriots didn't win the division (2002 and 2008) they tied for first...but to try and be as fair as possible, we'll remove the 2nd place team from every division those two years, since that's where they ended up after tiebreakers.

AFC East - 360-456 - .4411 winning percentage
AFC North - 354-456-6 - .4338 winning percentage
AFC South - 342-474 - .4191 winning percentage
AFC West - 349-467 - .4277 winning percentage

NFC East - 372-443-1 - .4559 winning percentage
NFC North - 346-467-3 - .4240 winning percentage
NFC South - 362-454 - .4436 winning percentage
NFC West - 326-488-2 - .3995 winning percentage

So the AFC East is the 3rd best division in football since 2002. They've had the best record across divisions four times (2003, 2004, 2006, and 2015), and the worst record twice (2007 and 2018).

Contrast that with the NFC West, who hasn't had a single year with the best divisional record, but was worst seven times (2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2016, 2018).

Sorry that the facts wreck your argument.

 

[Habsawce]

or, f*** the Patriots?

 

[c9777666]

The AFC East 3rd best division since 2002?

The AFC East was probably the best division in football before realignment.

 

[Halladay]

Mahomes is Chiefs/Reid proof.

 

[YEM]

No wonder they are all butt hurt.

except Giants fans, as that team owns yall

 

[c9777666]

Mahomes is Chiefs/Reid proof.

This ain't Bortles from last year.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Kc 41
Ne 38

 

[c9777666]

I know Brady is an amazing cold weather QB.... but a majority of his cold weather wins came at home and with all his playoff mileage at 41.... I don't know if weather this cold favors a QB that old.

Brett Favre was the best cold weather QB of his era until that final game at Lambeau.

 

[Tuggy]

The Moon will turn red over Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night

It's an omen!

#Eclispegate!

 

[Bocephus86]

Lots of great stats posted in the last two pages that I will remember for future arguments (bookmarked).

As for this game? I figure it's a toss up. The Pats D can be a little Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde. One thing to note: Kareem Hunt destroyed the Patriots in the two times he played them (431 yards, 4 TDs) - by far the most success any RB has had against them over 2 games. Williams is good, but there is something about Hunt's skill set that gave the Pats fits (likely his speed & pass catching, since our LBs are relatively slow). We'll see if Williams can come close to that level of production as it'll be needed in a cold game like this.

Also, Mahomes throws missiles: if he can't change that up to put a lot of touch on the ball, his WRs/TEs may struggle to catch those balls when it's 9 degrees out all game long.

Lastly, can't help but be annoyed that the Miami Miracle has taken this game out of Gillette; I would have been much more comfortable at home. As for now, I'm 50/50 but lean Pats due to homer-ism & past deeds.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

The AFC East 3rd best division since 2002?

The AFC East was probably the best division in football before realignment.

That divisiion had Indy in it.

Now, I wish they'd flip Miami and Indy. I still never understood that. Not that in football or really anymore loxation matters but Indy isn't in the South. Miami is. Outside of Miami and Buffalo there really was nothing big between Miami and the rest and that was really only because of Kelly and Marino being in the same class.

If Indy had been in the East the Patriots golden years may have not happened.

 

[DangleCity]

That divisiion had Indy in it.

Now, I wish they'd flip Miami and Indy. I still never understood that. Not that in football or really anymore loxation matters but Indy isn't in the South. Miami is. Outside of Miami and Buffalo there really was nothing big between Miami and the rest and that was really only because of Kelly and Marino being in the same class.

If Indy had been in the East the Patriots golden years may have not happened.

Patriots owned Indy with Peyton, infact they have owned Indy the last two decades irregardless of personnel. Someone just posted they had a 79% win pct aginst the entire NFL over this run. So, sorry but its just a ridiculous thing to say

 

[pockets]

I know Brady is an amazing cold weather QB.... but a majority of his cold weather wins came at home and with all his playoff mileage at 41.... I don't know if weather this cold favors a QB that old.

Brett Favre was the best cold weather QB of his era until that final game at Lambeau.

You're just reaching for anything, huh?

 

[DangleCity]

You're just reaching for anything, huh?

They have a special type of cold weather at Gillette that benefits Brady

 

[Dont Toews Me Bro]

I rarely pick against New England but I will here.

KC 24-20

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

Patriots owned Indy with Peyton, infact they have owned Indy the last two decades irregardless of personnel. Someone just posted they had a 79% win pct aginst the entire NFL over this run. So, sorry but its just a ridiculous thing to say

Most of those games were in NE if I recall, all but one playoff game. I think Indy did win the regular season opener at NE once but outside of that I don't think Indy won a game there with Manning. But you also can't deny for a southern kid who got to play in a dome it's no shock that Manning couldn't win at NE in the playoffs. He did win the home playoff game though.