Pats 9-0 at home, 3-5 on the road. Chiefs give up like 38 points/game on the road, 18/game at home. Even less if we count the playoff game. Chiefs made significant defensive changes a few weeks ago, replacing 2 out of 4 starters in the secondary. Their replacements, talented, fast young guys, have been MUCH better. And they've never lacked for talent up front: Jones, Ford and Houston is the best trio in the league. But for whatever reason their scheme was just bad all year. Still led the league in sacks. Dominated the best OL in the league on Saturday. On the other hand, Pats defense in DVOA is 2nd in the league at home... 31st on the road. Brady is 1-3 at Arrowhead. Pats have lost their last 3 playoff road games; haven't won a road playoff game since 2006. This is the first game NE has been underdog since 2015; it was 67 games ago. Unreal stat.
Chiefs are a completely different (and much better) team at home; Pats are a completely different (and much worse) team on the road.
Chiefs win and it'll be a statement game. 38-17. Don't quote me now, quote me in 7 days.