Prospect Info: 2018-2019 Senators prospect watch

[R2010]

Interesting tidbit in LeBrun's article today:

"...I'm also told the Senators' staff had it fairly close to 50-50 between Zadina and Kotkaniemi but both behind Tkachuk, so I really feel that one would have gone either way."

 

[Samsquanch]

No it's no the worst, and certainly not by a fair margin. Literally the first 3 teams I thought of are all arguably worse- Detroit, Montreal and Vancouver. Too tired to go through all the other teams but I'm sure there are at least a few others that are worse or close to it. It seems like you're underestimating how difficult it is to develop legitimate top 6 forwards.
Finding elite talent in this league is tough unless you're picking very high in the draft. Tkachuk was Ottawa's highest pick since 2001, and their only top 5 pick in that time.

Your 13 year timeline isn't true either since their last few years have yet to be developed. The likes of Tkachuk, Brown, Chlapik, White, Formenton, Gagne and a few others have yet to finish developing so it's unfair to include them in this discussion.

I disagree.

Here is your first choice, Detroit, and this looks pretty comparable to me (edge to Detroit), but its much better if you consider that 2/3 guys on our list didnt necessarily develop as top 6 players here (large portions of time away from the org - where they had their best seasons).

Dylan Larkin - drafted 14
Anthony Mantha - drafted 13
Johan Franzen - drafted 04
Ville Leino - undrafted
Gustav Nyquist - drafted 08
Tomas Tatar - drafted 09

Plus guys like Abdelkader, Sheahan, Helm, and Bertuzzi that are absolutely at the same level as Pageau and Dzingel.

 

[scallionjj11]

Parker Kelly's 5th of the season was the SH-GWG

Kelly has 9 Points (5G, 4A) through 8GP in the WHL.

Thanks SOA! You're the best!

 

[SAK11]

I disagree.

Here is your first choice, Detroit, and this looks pretty comparable to me (edge to Detroit), but its much better if you consider that 2/3 guys on our list didnt necessarily develop as top 6 players here (large portions of time away from the org - where they had their best seasons).

Dylan Larkin - drafted 14
Anthony Mantha - drafted 13
Johan Franzen - drafted 04
Ville Leino - undrafted
Gustav Nyquist - drafted 08
Tomas Tatar - drafted 09

Plus guys like Abdelkader, Sheahan, Helm, and Bertuzzi that are absolutely at the same level as Pageau and Dzingel.

You just gave Detroit credit for Leino, while simultaneously trying to take away credit from Ottawa for the guys that had good seasons elsewhere. Leino played 55 games with Detroit, scoring 16 points. He ended up having one year in his career with 50+ points, and never scored 20 goals. Calling him a successful top 6 player is a huge stretch. Might have to give us credit for Greening then. Now he was drafted in 2005, but you listed Franzen and Abdelkader for Detroit when they were drafted before the time frame being discussed [2006].
And then you bring up clear bottom 6 guys like Helm and Sheahan. You'll have to include Smith, Noesen, and Condra if those types of guys count.

I think you're stretching it if you're really going to give Detroit the edge here.

What about the breakdown for Vancouver and Montreal? Or how about the likes of Arizona, San Jose, Pittsburgh, Anaheim, Nashville, New Jersey and Carolina?

Go through those teams and if you truly think Ottawa is far worse, then I think it's safe to say that you're being biased against Ottawa.

Like I said, most high-end talent is had at the top of the draft. Having just one top 5 pick in this time frame makes it hard for Ottawa to be a big-time producer of top 6 talent, but relative to the rest of the league, they are not as bad as you made it seem.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Interesting tidbit in LeBrun's article today:

"...I'm also told the Senators' staff had it fairly close to 50-50 between Zadina and Kotkaniemi but both behind Tkachuk, so I really feel that one would have gone either way."

Not shocking that they were high on Kotkaniemi. Never understood why people were so surprised he went 3rd. He's a potential #1 center.

Would have taken him over Tkachuk or Zadina if given the opportunity.

 

[Samsquanch]

You just gave Detroit credit for Leino, while simultaneously trying to take away credit from Ottawa for the guys that had good seasons elsewhere. Leino played 55 games with Detroit, scoring 16 points. He ended up having one year in his career with 50+ points, and never scored 20 goals. Calling him a successful top 6 player is a huge stretch. Might have to give us credit for Greening then. Now he was drafted in 2005, but you listed Franzen and Abdelkader for Detroit when they were drafted before the time frame being discussed [2006].
And then you bring up clear bottom 6 guys like Helm and Sheahan. You'll have to include Smith, Noesen, and Condra if those types of guys count.

I think you're stretching it if you're really going to give Detroit the edge here.

What about the breakdown for Vancouver and Montreal? Or how about the likes of Arizona, San Jose, Pittsburgh, Anaheim, Nashville, New Jersey and Carolina?

Go through those teams and if you truly think Ottawa is far worse, then I think it's safe to say that you're being biased against Ottawa.

Like I said, most high-end talent is had at the top of the draft. Having just one top 5 pick in this time frame makes it hard for Ottawa to be a big-time producer of top 6 talent, but relative to the rest of the league, they are not as bad as you made it seem.

1st off, there is no imaginary cut off line for when to stop counting our poor developing.

2nd, in regards to Leino, we seem to keep listing Silvferberg (or Ryan), and yet he played a grand total of 58 games for us? Bit of a double standard to boost our numbers. Take em both off and it looks even worse for us...

You have to go all the friggin way back to 2001 when we drafted Spezza to find a top 6 forward before we drafted Foligno in 06.

Go back that far and include the 03 draft and then yes it 100% does become laughable how bad we are at drafting & developing top 6 forwards.

Its a problem.

Edit: and on the topic of Detroit, yes maybe they are as close to as bad as us. Doesn't look nearly as bad when you look at their success over the same period though... they get a gimmie, we dont.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Not shocking that they were high on Kotkaniemi. Never understood why people were so surprised he went 3rd. He's a potential #1 center.

Would have taken him over Tkachuk or Zadina if given the opportunity.

Yeah even though I dislike the Habs I didn't understand why so many mocked them for picking Kotka 3rd overall. Dude is very skilled.

 

[Xspyrit]

Holy **** this is even worse than I thought...thats after 13 years of drafting and development.

Dude this is outright terrible when you take out the non top 6 guys (Pager and Zinger).

Now consider that all of those guys aside from Stone and Hoffman have played a large portion of their careers elsewhere. And they're all top 6 guys at best (no elite players other than Stone), and possibly bottom 6 players in the near future.

Ill say thats the worst in the league by a fair margin.

That assessment is made a bit too fast and requires more analysis

Well, you'd be right to say that between Spezza (2001) and Foligno (2006), we haven't drafted and developed any good forward. But that is because the drafting between 2002 and 2007 (6 years of Muckler regime) has been disastrous. Outside of Foligno, the only other forwards of note during those 6 drafts are Eaves, Regin, Condra and Greening... All bottom-6 players (outside of that 1 year from Eaves)

Thank God it changed when Bryan Murray took over, so after 2008, we drafted and developed those forwards :

2008 : Zack Smith (3rd liner, career 0.31 PPG)
2009 : Jakob Silfverberg (2nd liner, career 0.51 PPG)
2009 : Mike Hoffman (1st liner, career 0.67 PPG)
2010 : Mark Stone (high end 1st liner, career 0.81 PPG)
2011 : Mika Zibanejad (2nd liner, career 0.57 PPG)
2011 : Jean-Gabriel Pageau (3rd liner, career 0.40 PPG)
2011 : Ryan Dzingel (2nd liner, career 0.45 PPG but still rising as he came in the NHL older due to the College route)

2012, 2013 and 2014 didn't amount to much in terms of forwards : Tobias Lindberg and Francis Perron still have a chance to carve out a NHL career but very unlikely at this point.

Others still playing in the NHL or who could be back : Derek Grant, Marcus Sorensen, Stefan Noesen, Matt Puempel, Shane Prince, Max McCormick, Curtis Lazar

Now it's way too complicated if you take into account all the draft picks that were acquired or traded, but you can at least put those 2 in consideration :

2010 : Sens used their 1st round pick to acquire Rundblad, then eventually Kyle Turris (2nd liner, career 0.59 PPG)
2014 : Sens used their 1st round pick (and Silfverberg + Noesen) to acquire Bobby Ryan (1st liner, career 0.69 PPG)

So basically, in those 7 drafts :

Hoffman-Turris-Stone
Dzingel-Zibanejad-Ryan
Smith-Pageau-Sorensen
McCormick-Grant-Lazar
Prince-Puempel

I'd say that's pretty freaking good, no? But of course, the 6 previous years under Muckler did hurt this franchise a lot.

=========================================

I would leave the 2015-2018 drafts out of the conversation for now, as it remains to be seen what happens with these guys as they are still prospects, but I think the 2008-14 trend will continue, maybe even better

2015 : Colin White, Filip Chlapik, Gabriel Gagne
2016 : Logan Brown, Jonathan Dahlen, Markus Nurmi
2017 : Shane Bowers, Alex Formenton, Drake Batherson
2018 : Brady Tkachuk, Jonathan Gruden, Angus Crookshank, Jakov Novak, Luke Loheit

I think several of these guys will be good NHL forwards. I think at least 8 will be NHL regulars.

 

[Samsquanch]

That assessment is made a bit too fast and requires more analysis

Well, you'd be right to say that between Spezza (2001) and Foligno (2006), we haven't drafted and developed any good forward. But that is because the drafting between 2002 and 2007 (6 years of Muckler regime) has been disastrous. Outside of Foligno, the only other forwards of note during those 6 drafts are Eaves, Regin, Condra and Greening... All bottom-6 players (outside of that 1 year from Eaves)

Thank God it changed when Bryan Murray took over, so after 2008, we drafted and developed those forwards :

2008 : Zack Smith (3rd liner, career 0.31 PPG)
2009 : Jakob Silfverberg (2nd liner, career 0.51 PPG)
2009 : Mike Hoffman (1st liner, career 0.67 PPG)
2010 : Mark Stone (high end 1st liner, career 0.81 PPG)
2011 : Mika Zibanejad (2nd liner, career 0.57 PPG)
2011 : Jean-Gabriel Pageau (3rd liner, career 0.40 PPG)
2011 : Ryan Dzingel (2nd liner, career 0.45 PPG but still rising as he came in the NHL older)

2012, 2013 and 2014 didn't amount to much in terms of forwards : Tobias Lindberg and Francis Perron still have a chance to carve out a NHL career but very unlikely at this point.

Others still playing in the NHL or who could be back : Derek Grant, Marcus Sorensen, Stefan Noesen, Matt Puempel, Shane Prince, Max McCormick, Curtis Lazar

Now it's way too complicated if you take into account all the draft picks that were acquired or traded, but you can at least put those 2 in consideration :

2010 : Sens used their 1st round pick to acquire Rundblad, then eventually Kyle Turris (2nd liner, career 0.59 PPG)
2014 : Sens used their 1st round pick (and Silfverberg) to acquire Bobby Ryan (1st liner, career 0.69 PPG)

So basically, in those 7 drafts :

Hoffman-Turris-Stone
Dzingel-Zibanejad-Ryan
Smith-Pageau-Noesen
Sorensen-McCormick-Lazar
Prince-Grant-Puempel

I'd say that's pretty freaking good, no? But of course, the 6 previous years under Muckler did hurt this franchise a lot.

=========================================

I would leave the 2015-2018 drafts out of the conversation for now, as it remains to be seen what happens with these guys as they are still prospects, but I think the 2008-14 trend will continue, maybe even better

2015 : Colin White, Filip Chlapik, Gabriel Gagne
2016 : Logan Brown, Jonathan Dahlen, Markus Nurmi
2017 : Shane Bowers, Alex Formenton, Drake Batherson
2018 : Brady Tkachuk, Jonathan Gruden, Angus Crookshank, Jakov Novak, Luke Loheit

I think several of these guys will be good NHL forwards. I think at least 8 will be NHL regulars.

You're really focused on the depth players that we drafted..Im not, at all. I have no concerns there with our record, we do quite well as we can all see by that lineup full of 3rd/4th/5th liners that you posted.

Im talking about top 6 players though. Real ones. Like guys who've put up 50+ pts at one point in their careers.

We do excellent at drafting and developing top 9 kind of guys. I'll be the first to admit that, and thank god for that fact or else we would be in real trouble most seasons.

We do exceptionally poorly in the area of developing scoring forwards. If not for 6th rounder Mark Stone it would be truly embarrassing.

And nothing that we have done in the last 17 years has convinced me otherwise (trust me Ive been watching and waiting for it the whole time too).

Having said that, I do like our current crop of kids and think at least one of them (Tkachuk) is a completely sure bet to become another top 6 guy. But for the rest I need to see it to believe it at this point (ie showing me some top 6 potential against NHL competition).

 

[SAK11]

1st off, there is no imaginary cut off line for when to stop counting our poor developing.

2nd, in regards to Leino, we seem to keep listing Silvferberg (or Ryan), and yet he played a grand total of 58 games for us? Bit of a double standard to boost our numbers. Take em both off and it looks even worse for us...

You have to go all the friggin way back to 2001 when we drafted Spezza to find a top 6 forward before we drafted Foligno in 06.

Go back that far and include the 03 draft and then yes it 100% does become laughable how bad we are at drafting & developing top 6 forwards.

Its a problem.

Edit: and on the topic of Detroit, yes maybe they are as close to as bad as us. Doesn't look nearly as bad when you look at their success over the same period though... they get a gimmie, we dont.

If you can't see the difference between Leino and Silfverberg I don't know what to tell you.
Leino: 119 points in 286 games. 1 year worth talking about. Traded from Detroit for next to nothing. Out of the league after less than 300 games.
Silfverberg: 214 points in 422 games. Several solid years under his belt and still only 27. Traded as the main piece for Ryan [top line player at the time].
It would be ridiculous to think that those two are equals, no need to take them both out as you suggest. Silfverberg is clearly the superior player.

As for that "imaginary cut off line", you were the one who first wrote that it's been 13 horrible years so I was simply going with what you said. If you want to go further back, of course it's going to be bad since it's widely known how poor the drafting was under Muckler. In the time frame previously discussed [2006 until now] do you still think Ottawa is "the worst in the league by a far margin?" You've addressed 1 of the 10 teams I've brought up. What about the other 9?

I think if you unbiasedly looked at those other teams I've mentioned, you'd see that Ottawa's drafting and developing of top 6 forwards has not been nearly as laughable as you seem to think. I've said this twice but might as well mention it again. A large amount of the high-end forwards in this league are picked very high in the draft. Look at TSN's top 50 players, a high majority of those forwards were top 5 picks [Ottawa had no chance at McDavid, Crosby, MacKinnon, Malkin, Matthews, Hall, Ovechkin, Kane, Tavares, Stamkos, Barkov, Laine, Seguin, Eichel, Backstrom, and Marner]. Ottawa finally had their first top 5 pick this past draft since Spezza in 2001. Taking that into consideration, and actually looking closely at the other teams during the time frame being discussed, Ottawa's drafting and development hasn't been as bad as you think.

 

[Samsquanch]

If you can't see the difference between Leino and Silfverberg I don't know what to tell you.
Leino: 119 points in 286 games. 1 year worth talking about. Traded from Detroit for next to nothing. Out of the league after less than 300 games.
Silfverberg: 214 points in 422 games. Several solid years under his belt and still only 27. Traded as the main piece for Ryan [top line player at the time].
It would be ridiculous to think that those two are equals, no need to take them both out as you suggest. Silfverberg is clearly the superior player.

As for that "imaginary cut off line", you were the one who first wrote that it's been 13 horrible years so I was simply going with what you said. If you want to go further back, of course it's going to be bad since it's widely known how poor the drafting was under Muckler. In the time frame previously discussed [2006 until now] do you still think Ottawa is "the worst in the league by a far margin?" You've addressed 1 of the 10 teams I've brought up. What about the other 9?

I think if you unbiasedly looked at those other teams I've mentioned, you'd see that Ottawa's drafting and developing of top 6 forwards has not been nearly as laughable as you seem to think. I've said this twice but might as well mention it again. A large amount of the high-end forwards in this league are picked very high in the draft. Look at TSN's top 50 players, a high majority of those forwards were top 5 picks [Ottawa had no chance at McDavid, Crosby, MacKinnon, Malkin, Matthews, Hall, Ovechkin, Kane, Tavares, Stamkos, Barkov, Laine, Seguin, Eichel, Backstrom, and Marner]. Ottawa finally had their first top 5 pick this past draft since Spezza in 2001. Taking that into consideration, and actually looking closely at the other teams during the time frame being discussed, Ottawa's drafting and development hasn't been as bad as you think.

So much wrong here....

I started the whole discussion by saying this;

Stone is the best forward that we've developed since Spezza way back when, and there's a country mile in between him and 2nd place. And as much as I love Stone, thats a massive problem with this franchise right now.

Someone replied back with a list of our top 6 forwards drafted since Spezza. the first guy on that list was Foligno, drafted in 06. I replied to that comment, and thats where your imaginary cut off line comes from.

The period of time that I've always been talking about has been since we drafted Spezza. You with me so far?

If you feel like excluding the entire early 2000's from the argument, well sure thats within your right I guess. Whatever floats your boat dude. But you havent moved the needle on my opinion that since being gifted with the 2nd overall pick back in 2001, we have been shitty at developing scoring forwards. Its pretty much an inarguable fact.

And your asking why I didnt compare the other 9 teams? Well the most valid reason for me would be that I noticed that you had SJ in there (a team that has drafted and/or developed Couture, Hertl, Pavelski, Coyle, Bonino, Setoguchi, Michalek, Meier).

It was at that point that I realized that you must be completely and totally out to lunch, and that this would be a huge waste of time (and it would take a lot of time to get this done).

Until I see with my own eyes some of the new kids (Formenton, Batherson, Brown, Chlapik, White) become top 6 players, there is no chance that I change my own opinion on this teams ability to produce scoring forwards.

Tkatchuk is the only sure bet we have right now, and thats because he arrived here completely ready to go by the looks of it so far.

Edit: Just reread your post, and decided I'll be a little more diplomatic.

Yes, from '06 and on, Ottawa isnt the worst by a fair margin. They are simply in the running for the title of "worst" team with a few others like Detroit or Montreal.

Go back to '02 and they are the worst, hands down.

 

[SAK11]

So much wrong here....

I started the whole discussion by saying this;



Someone replied back with a list of our top 6 forwards drafted since Spezza. the first guy on that list was Foligno, drafted in 06. I replied to that comment, and thats where your imaginary cut off line comes from.

The period of time that I've always been talking about has been since we drafted Spezza. You with me so far?

If you feel like excluding the entire early 2000's from the argument, well sure thats within your right I guess. Whatever floats your boat dude. But you havent moved the needle on my opinion that since being gifted with the 2nd overall pick back in 2001, we have been ****ty at developing scoring forwards. Its pretty much an inarguable fact.

And your asking why I didnt compare the other 9 teams? Well the most valid reason for me would be that I noticed that you had SJ in there (a team that has drafted and/or developed Couture, Hertl, Pavelski, Coyle, Bonino, Setoguchi, Michalek, Meier).

It was at that point that I realized that you must be completely and totally out to lunch, and that this would be a huge waste of time (and it would take a lot of time to get this done).

Until I see with my own eyes some of the new kids (Formenton, Batherson, Brown, Chlapik, White) become top 6 players, there is no chance that I change my own opinion on this teams ability to produce scoring forwards.

Tkatchuk is the only sure bet we have right now, and thats because he arrived here completely ready to go by the looks of it so far.

Edit: Just reread your post, and decided I'll be a little more diplomatic.

Yes, from '06 and on, Ottawa isnt the worst by a fair margin. They are simply in the running for the title of "worst" team with a few others like Detroit or Montreal.

Go back to '02 and they are the worst, hands down.

I fail to see where there's "so much wrong here."

My claims were:
-->Leino and Silfverberg aren't really comparable. I went through the numbers to prove my point.
-->Most top-end talent comes at the top of the draft. I gave a long list of player to prove my point.
-->Ottawa hasn't been the worst in the league at drafting and developing over these last 13 years. I brought up 10 other teams that are arguably worse.

So what exactly is so wrong with my post?

Here's your quote that brought me into this conversation: "Holy **** this is even worse than I thought...thats after 13 years of drafting and development....Ill say thats the worst in the league by a fair margin."

I haven't ignored the early 2000s, in my last post I wrote clearly that Muckler did not draft well. That was an issue. But again, my whole argument was against your claim made in the quote above.
In that 13 year time frame, Ottawa is not the worst in the league by a fair margin. You originally thought they were, and I'm glad you've admitted to being wrong about that.

In regards to your San Jose comments, you're trying to move the goal posts to make me look bad, but again, I've been arguing the last 13 years. If you had said since 2002 they've been brutal, I would've been less inclined to get involved since Ottawa was widely known as a poor drafting team in the early 2000s, and it was a problem. As it stands, in the 13 year time frame being discussed, San Jose is not clearly superior to Ottawa. Pavelski, Setoguchi, and Michalek were picked before 2006. So here's the San Jose- Ottawa comparison in the time frame that I've been arguing:

Couture, Coyle, Hertl, and Meier are their true top 6 guys.
Zibanejad, Stone, Silfverberg, Hoffman, and Foligno are Ottawa's true top 6 guys. [Plus Turris as someone they helped develop].

I would put Bonino and Tierney in the same tier as Pageau and Dzingel.

They have Labanc, Goldobin, Norris, Gambrell and Balcers as potential top 6 guys.
Ottawa has Tkachuk, Brown, White, Batherson, Formenton, Dahlen, and Chlapik as potential top 6 guys. [and now of course, a chance to develop Norris and Balcers].

I think most would agree San Jose isn't clearly superior. Maybe now you'll look into the other teams I mentioned and realize I'm not "out to lunch."

If your next post is going to be in any way discussing 2002-2005, don't bother. I never argued against that.

 

[Samsquanch]

If your next post is going to be in any way discussing 2002-2005, don't bother. I never argued against that.

Just an FYI, you proved nothing with Silverberg. Proof and opinions are different things.

FACT:

Leino - had 21pts/19gp in the 2010 playoffs. The following year in the 2011 season he 53pts /82 gp. Sounds like top 6 numbers to me? Who cares that he fizzled out afterwards, that has literally nothing at all to do with our conversation lol?

Detroit identified Leino and brought him in. We identified Silfverberg and brought him in. But neither of these clubs had a hand in these players becoming top 6 guys, they did it elsewhere. Which was my original point...

Now if you're upset that I keep bringing up 2002-2018 as the period of misery, thats your own problem bud. It was in there from the start, you just nit picked one of my replies and have based your whole argument on it.

Just like you dont care about 2002-2005, I dont care about only focusing on 2006-2018. We're having different conversations here, so please feel free to bow out and discuss the 2006-2018 period with someone who is interested.

If it makes you feel any better though, I've already admitted that I was little hasty in calling those 13 years the worst in the league by a fair margin. We are simply in the running for worst team in the league with some others. Go back to 2002 and we're the worst though, hands down.

I appreciate your enthusiasm for the organization and its ability to draft and develop good scoring forwards. But if you really think that San Jose is worse than us, even using your cherry picked date range, I think you're blind with homerism. Quality over quantity man.

 

[SAK11]

Just an FYI, you proved nothing with Silverberg. Proof and opinions are different things.

FACT:

Leino - had 21pts/19gp in the 2010 playoffs. The following year in the 2011 season he 53pts /82 gp. Sounds like top 6 numbers to me? Who cares that he fizzled out afterwards, that has literally nothing at all to do with our conversation lol?

Detroit identified Leino and brought him in. We identified Silfverberg and brought him in. But neither of these clubs had a hand in these players becoming top 6 guys, they did it elsewhere. Which was my original point...

Now if you're upset that I keep bringing up 2002-2018 as the period of misery, thats your own problem bud. It was in there from the start, you just nit picked one of my replies and have based your whole argument on it.

Just like you dont care about 2002-2005, I dont care about only focusing on 2006-2018. We're having different conversations here, so please feel free to bow out and discuss the 2006-2018 period with someone who is interested.

If it makes you feel any better though, I've already admitted that I was little hasty in calling those 13 years the worst in the league by a fair margin. We are simply in the running for worst team in the league with some others. Go back to 2002 and we're the worst though, hands down.

I appreciate your enthusiasm for the organization and its ability to draft and develop good scoring forwards. But if you really think that San Jose is worse than us, even using your cherry picked date range, I think you're blind with homerism. Quality over quantity man.

The problem with Leino, as I've already discussed, is that you wanted to punish Ottawa for the players that left here, and also didn't want to give credit to Ottawa for someone like Dzingel since he hasn't be a true top 6 guy for long enough. Leino only played 50 some games in Detroit, was really only a top 6 guy in this league for 1 year, and was out of the league before playing even 300 games. From that Detroit list you presented, he clearly stood out as not belonging. You then claimed that it would be fair to exclude both him and Silfverberg, as if they are the same. Silfverberg's clearly had the superior career, was traded for superior value, and has been a top 6 guy for much longer.

Anyway, I'll try to be clear and concise with what's transpired to avoid confusion.

This was your quote: "Holy **** this is even worse than I thought...thats after 13 years of drafting and development....Ill say thats the worst in the league by a fair margin."

I, along with a few others, disagreed with that statement. Never did I argue about the 2002-2005 period. In fact, I have stated a few times now that it was a weak time for Ottawa in regards to drafting and development. But your claim in the quote above is that they have been the worst in the league by a fair margin since 2006. I get that you also think they've been the worst since 2002, but the quote above did not state that. I was arguing against the quote above. I did not make up this imaginary cut-off point, I was simply going off of what you said, and arguing against it. So when I took the time to look up how other teams have drafted and developed in those 13 years, I found several that were arguably worse. That included San Jose. For you to make it seem like I made up this cut-off point boggles my mind- You wrote 13 YEARS!

You have since admitted to being wrong about that quote, so at least there's that. Hopefully this clears up your misconception that I am the one making up a cut-off point and that I'm ignoring 2002-2005. I was simply arguing against your quote. That's it. Understood?

 

[flemo]

 

[Xspyrit]

You're really focused on the depth players that we drafted..Im not, at all. I have no concerns there with our record, we do quite well as we can all see by that lineup full of 3rd/4th/5th liners that you posted.

Im talking about top 6 players though. Real ones. Like guys who've put up 50+ pts at one point in their careers.

We do excellent at drafting and developing top 9 kind of guys. I'll be the first to admit that, and thank god for that fact or else we would be in real trouble most seasons.

We do exceptionally poorly in the area of developing scoring forwards. If not for 6th rounder Mark Stone it would be truly embarrassing.

And nothing that we have done in the last 17 years has convinced me otherwise (trust me Ive been watching and waiting for it the whole time too).

Having said that, I do like our current crop of kids and think at least one of them (Tkachuk) is a completely sure bet to become another top 6 guy. But for the rest I need to see it to believe it at this point (ie showing me some top 6 potential against NHL competition).

No, I'm not "focused" on anything. What is important here is to be aware of the time frame that we are looking at. 13 years is a long period of time for a draft range, and I agree with you that if you take the 2002-2007 period (first 6 years), it will make the results for that 13 years period as not very impressive. We only produced one "good" forward in that frame, Nick Foligno.

What I was saying is that we did pretty well in the second part of that time frame (so when Bryan Murray and his staff took over), in the last 7 years of that 13 years time frame, we produced :

2008 : Zack Smith (3rd liner, career high : 36 pts, 0 time 50+ pts)
2009 : Jakob Silfverberg (2nd liner, career high : 49 pts, 0 time 50+ pts)
2009 : Mike Hoffman (1st liner, career high : 61 pts, 3 times 50+ pts)
2010 : Mark Stone (high end 1st liner, career high : 64 pts, 4 times 50+ pts)
2011 : Mika Zibanejad (2nd liner, career high : 51 pts, 1 time 50+ pts)
2011 : Jean-Gabriel Pageau (3rd liner, career high : 43 pts, 0 time 50+ pts)
2011 : Ryan Dzingel (2nd liner, career high : 41 pts, 0 time 50+ pts)
2010 : Trades (using the 1st round pick) ---> Kyle Turris (2nd liner, career high : 64 pts, 4 times 50+ pts)
2014 : Trade (using the 1st round pick) ---> Bobby Ryan (1st liner, career high : 71 pts, 6 times 50+ pts)

Can't count both Ryan or Silfverberg, so you pick one and we're looking at 2-3 first liners, 3-4 second liners and 2 third liners in a 7 years span... Plus, you have Noesen and Sorensen who might also be 3rd liners. I'm really not focused on depth players, that's a whole top-6 and a 3rd line, so a full top-9.

5 of those guys put up 50+ pts at one point in their careers, most of them did it multiple times and it doesn't account the times they were producing at that pace but missed some games due to injury. Also, several of those guys are still quite young and will put 50+ pts seasons in the future.

So no, some of the statements you made are inaccurate, we don't just develop "top 9 kind of guys". We did develop some scoring forwards (as highlighted above), or used our 1st round draft picks to trade for a proven one and a developing one (Ryan was a 2nd OA pick and Turris was a 3rd OA pick)

Unless you think scoring forwards are the ones who score 60+ pts every season? It happened 462 times in the last 10 years, so on average 46.2 players do it per season... that's not even 2 per team on average, and most of the guys who do it are the elite ones (most picked pretty damn high in the draft) and they do it year after year.

It's also super important to note that our highest picks used on forwards in that 7 years time frame were :

6th OA Mika Zibanejad (highest pick from the standings in 22 years)
17th OA Curtis Lazar
21st OA Stefan Noesen
24th OA Matt Puempel
39th OA Jakob Silfverberg
61st OA Shane Prince

Only 6 picks from the first 2 rounds of 7 drafts were used on forwards. It's pretty hard to develop scoring forwards when you're not routinely rewarded for sucking. In comparison, this how the Leafs got most of their scoring forwards :

1st OA Auston Matthews (2016)
4th OA Mitch Marner (2015)
7th OA Nazem Kadri (2009)
8th OA William Nylander (2014)

Seriously, I think you'd be surprised to see that not many teams have drafted more scoring forwards that the Sens from 2008-2014. The Leafs would be one, but if you notice, they only drafted Kadri and Nylander in that 7 years period... THAT'S IT. The only other forward of note they drafted in that period is Connor Brown. So thank God they had a 7th and 8th OA picks because if not, it would be truly pathetic.

So which teams have drafted more scoring forwards during that 7 years period (2008 to 2014)?

Habs have drafted Gallagher and Galchenyuk (3rd OA pick). Artturi Lehkonen and Charles Hudon would be the next best ones and the only ones of note. Maybe Andrighetto

 

[TheBradyBunch]

JBD starts on North Dakota's top pairing but Tychonick is a scratch. Poolman, Shaw and Kiersted are the LD ahead of him currently. Poolman and Shaw both played 40 games last year, Kierstad played 29 as a freshman.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

JBD starts on North Dakota's top pairing but Tychonick is a scratch. Poolman, Shaw and Kiersted are the LD ahead of him currently. Poolman and Shaw both played 40 games last year, Kierstad played 29 as a freshman.

yikes... good for JBD though

 

[Micklebot]

The problem with Leino, as I've already discussed, is that you wanted to punish Ottawa for the players that left here, and also didn't want to give credit to Ottawa for someone like Dzingel since he hasn't be a true top 6 guy for long enough. Leino only played 50 some games in Detroit, was really only a top 6 guy in this league for 1 year, and was out of the league before playing even 300 games. From that Detroit list you presented, he clearly stood out as not belonging. You then claimed that it would be fair to exclude both him and Silfverberg, as if they are the same. Silfverberg's clearly had the superior career, was traded for superior value, and has been a top 6 guy for much longer.

Anyway, I'll try to be clear and concise with what's transpired to avoid confusion.

This was your quote: "Holy **** this is even worse than I thought...thats after 13 years of drafting and development....Ill say thats the worst in the league by a fair margin."

I, along with a few others, disagreed with that statement. Never did I argue about the 2002-2005 period. In fact, I have stated a few times now that it was a weak time for Ottawa in regards to drafting and development. But your claim in the quote above is that they have been the worst in the league by a fair margin since 2006. I get that you also think they've been the worst since 2002, but the quote above did not state that. I was arguing against the quote above. I did not make up this imaginary cut-off point, I was simply going off of what you said, and arguing against it. So when I took the time to look up how other teams have drafted and developed in those 13 years, I found several that were arguably worse. That included San Jose. For you to make it seem like I made up this cut-off point boggles my mind- You wrote 13 YEARS!

You have since admitted to being wrong about that quote, so at least there's that. Hopefully this clears up your misconception that I am the one making up a cut-off point and that I'm ignoring 2002-2005. I was simply arguing against your quote. That's it. Understood?

Just to add to this discussion,

So, I ran the last 13 years of drafts through a quick query to see how teams did and came up with the following result;
In the last 13 years Ottawa has drafted 5 forwards who have a) played 200+ games, and b) averaged at least .5 pts per game. That's my loose definition of top 6 forward for the purpose of this exercise, and for Ottawa that means Foligno, Silfverberg, Zibanejad, Stone, and Hoffman.

Only two teams have drafted more forwards that meet that criteria, Boston and Edmonton, with 6 a piece. Edmonton has drafted in the top 5 six times, Boston twice, and Ottawa once (this year, so Brady hasn't gotten the chance to meet the criteria). If you adjust the points per game to .3 to include Pageau and Smith, we end up with 7 and there are 4 teams with more, if you adjust it to >.39 to just include Pageau, we end up with 6 and only 3 teams have more

Now. I didn't verify the query for every team, just for Ottawa, Boston and Edmonton, in the 200/.5 version and guys in the last few drafts that are top 6 forwards might not show up because they haven't hit that 200 game mark. It also won't include un-drafted free agent signings but I think it's safe to say the narrative that our forward drafting has been among the worst in the league is clearly flawed. The only guy you could argue of our guys that didn't develop here is Silf, but imo, he did all his developing here and was shipped off as a near fully developed player/prospect.
If you don't like the 200 game threshold, move it to 100 games, at .5pts per game, you add Chicago and Tbay with more players for a total of 4 teams, three teams have more .39 pts/g players, and 5 have more .3 pts/g players.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

JBD starts on North Dakota's top pairing but Tychonick is a scratch. Poolman, Shaw and Kiersted are the LD ahead of him currently. Poolman and Shaw both played 40 games last year, Kierstad played 29 as a freshman.

Starting on the first pair on UND is no small feat. Great signs.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

Starting on the first pair on UND is no small feat. Great signs.

Great signs for JBD. Should play for Team Canada at the WJHC too.

I'm not too concerned with Tychonik being scratched either, Wolanin was in the same boat his freshman year.

 

[Samsquanch]

Just to add to this discussion,

So, I ran the last 13 years of drafts through a quick query to see how teams did and came up with the following result;
In the last 13 years Ottawa has drafted 5 forwards who have a) played 200+ games, and b) averaged at least .5 pts per game. That's my loose definition of top 6 forward for the purpose of this exercise, and for Ottawa that means Foligno, Silfverberg, Zibanejad, Stone, and Hoffman.

Only two teams have drafted more forwards that meet that criteria, Boston and Edmonton, with 6 a piece. Edmonton has drafted in the top 5 six times, Boston twice, and Ottawa once (this year, so Brady hasn't gotten the chance to meet the criteria). If you adjust the points per game to .3 to include Pageau and Smith, we end up with 7 and there are 4 teams with more, if you adjust it to >.39 to just include Pageau, we end up with 6 and only 3 teams have more

Now. I didn't verify the query for every team, just for Ottawa, Boston and Edmonton, in the 200/.5 version and guys in the last few drafts that are top 6 forwards might not show up because they haven't hit that 200 game mark. It also won't include un-drafted free agent signings but I think it's safe to say the narrative that our forward drafting has been among the worst in the league is clearly flawed. The only guy you could argue of our guys that didn't develop here is Silf, but imo, he did all his developing here and was shipped off as a near fully developed player/prospect.
If you don't like the 200 game threshold, move it to 100 games, at .5pts per game, you add Chicago and Tbay with more players for a total of 4 teams, three teams have more .39 pts/g players, and 5 have more .3 pts/g players.

Ive already admitted that my statement about us being the worst over those 13 years is not very accurate. I got over excited.

But Im still okay with saying that if we go back to the early 2000's that we are very much in the running though.

I know that we are a good drafting team on the whole. Aside from the 1st round, we routinely kill it imo.

What is most frustrating to me is that we let kids make the team, but our coaches show ZERO patience at the same time, and they never give the scoring forward prospects a real chance to succeed.

The lines are shuffled continuously, and its rare that the young players aren't casualties along the way (even still in our epic quest to not be the leagues worst team). Lets give them 10 or 15 games of real mins and linemates FFS.

Ottawa's 4th line is a graveyard and a place for prospects to go and die slowly, 6-8 mins a game at a time.

The fact that we dont have 2 of our kids stapled to one of Stone and Duchene at all times right now is further evidence to me that we still just dont get it at all. And even worse than that, even those two guys still see much less ice than they should because our 3rd liners always get prime minutes under Guy. Its been a complete shit show ever since Murray left imo.

TLDR: I still think we're really bad at integrating young forwards into the lineup.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

2020 Draft

another couple names to keep an eye on
Noel Gunler at eliteprospects.com 23 points in 13 games now
Anton Lundell at eliteprospects.com playing in Liiga now and impressing
Marco Rossi at eliteprospects.com playing for the 67's ..1st in rookie scoring

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Xspyrit]

Ive already admitted that my statement about us being the worst over those 13 years is not very accurate. I got over excited.

But Im still okay with saying that if we go back to the early 2000's that we are very much in the running though.

I know that we are a good drafting team on the whole. Aside from the 1st round, we routinely kill it imo.

What is most frustrating to me is that we let kids make the team, but our coaches show ZERO patience at the same time, and they never give the scoring forward prospects a real chance to succeed.

The lines are shuffled continuously, and its rare that the young players aren't casualties along the way (even still in our epic quest to not be the leagues worst team). Lets give them 10 or 15 games of real mins and linemates FFS.

Ottawa's 4th line is a graveyard and a place for prospects to go and die slowly, 6-8 mins a game at a time.

The fact that we dont have 2 of our kids stapled to one of Stone and Duchene at all times right now is further evidence to me that we still just dont get it at all. And even worse than that, even those two guys still see much less ice than they should because our 3rd liners always get prime minutes under Guy. Its been a complete **** show ever since Murray left imo.

TLDR: I still think we're really bad at integrating young forwards into the lineup.

Your initial statement would be true from 2002-2007 (just Foligno in 6 drafts) but we have been very good at drafting since 2008 (and the pick that kick started this was Erik Karlsson, no less). Which makes everything even more frustrating because we should have a very competitive team right now if we just spent money to fill the holes and make the line-up stronger (and well if Dorion didn't do as much as he did)

Just by drafting/trading from 2008-2016 (Murray regime), this is the assets we cumulated and had when Murray stepped down (+ vets like Methot, Phaneuf, Neil, McArthur, Anderson and Hammond) :

Hoffman-Turris-Stone
Dzingel-Zibanejad-Ryan
Smith-Pageau-White
Perron-Chlapik-Gagne
Puempel-McCormick-Lazar

Chabot-Karlsson
Wolanin-Ceci
Claesson-Jaros
Borowiecki-Wideman
Englund-Harpur

Hogberg
Daccord

* Lehner traded for a 1st > used to draft Colin White
* Prince traded for a 3rd > used to move up and select Logan Brown (Dorion)
* Cowen cap dumped in the Phaneuf deal
* Grant and Wiercioch were let go
* Sorensen was never signed by the Sens

==============================

Now, let's say Dorion didn't do as much as he did. He still make the Lazar and Duchene trades. Let's say he still draft the same players and still let go Puempel and Claesson

No choice to trade Hoffman because of his GF? Deal sucked but let's live with it.

Still need to get rid of Phaneuf's salary? ok do it.

Had Methot, lost him to the ED, find a way to get him back.

Had Anderson, and well the only starting goalie we have had for a while. Find a better back-up than Condon and don't extend him 3 years at 2.4

Wish he would of get rid of Boro and trade Wideman when Jaros is ready to have Wolanin-Jaros as the 3rd pairing instead...

Tkachuk-Duchene-Stone
Boedker-Zibanejad-Ryan
Dzingel-Pageau-Chlapik
McCormick-Smith-White

Chabot-Karlsson
Lajoie-Ceci
Wolanin-Jaros
Harpur

Anderson
????????

I dunno but to me it looks like a very solid line-up and you'd still have a pretty decent prospect pool :

Brown, Batherson, Formenton, Dahlen, Gruden, Perron, Gagne, Nurmi, Crookshank, Novak, Loheit, Englund, Bergman, Hogberg, Daccord, Hollett, Mandolese

Weakness would definitely be D-men prospects so you try to focus more on that in the upcoming drafts, but the NHL defense is pretty young so "no rush"


Finally, lol we haven't developed a goalie in a long time...