2018-19 stats and underlying metrics thread

[Whileee]

Hard to make line up decisions right now, because there is a lot of fatigue showing in players like Connor, Laine, Wheeler and Ehlers (at times).

Maurice wants to bump the 4th line up to 9 minutes, so you still can't expect top end players to play on that line. Lowry is not going to play 9 minutes because his line is an important defensive matchup.

Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler (why mess with success)
Connor- Little-Laine (chewed up November before a slump with a heavy schedule)
Copp-Lowry-Perreault (some offense for the shutdown duo)
Petan-Roslovic-Appleton (a fourth line with some offensive bite)

I know Tanev isn't coming out of the lineup so maybe he replaces Appleton on the 4th line.

 

[puck stoppa]

Id still like this. I think it would balance out the scoring and ice time. Im worried the top line is playing too much and I don't want them tired in a long playoff run.
Petan Scheif Wheels
Ehlers Little Perreault
Connor Roslo Laine
Copp Lowry Tanev​

 

[Jack722]

Personally, if I were to build the lines for a healthy Jets...

...

If you choose 4a) then you have to decide if Roslovic is the better centre (then go Petan-Roslovic-Connor) or if Petan is the better centre (then go Connor-Petan-Roslovic).

I like how Connor - Petan - Roslovic is a result of us not "spreading out the talent"

Agree that Perreault / Laine seems like a great match.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I feel like our 4th line is getting a lot more icetime with our top pairing D than in prior years....confirmation bias or a real change in philosophy from Huddy-Maurice?

 

[Duke749]

Ya. He's a glass cannon, a DPS player in a video game. Put him beside players like Perreault and you'll be fine.

Wow. Amazing analogy. You just went from a 10 to a 12 in my book.

 

[csk]

Id still like this. I think it would balance out the scoring and ice time. Im worried the top line is playing too much and I don't want them tired in a long playoff run.
Petan Scheif Wheels
Ehlers Little Perreault
Connor Roslo Laine
Copp Lowry Tanev​

Oh my god that line would get annihilated

 

[puck stoppa]

Oh my god that line would get annihilated

Playing other teams bottom 6?

 

[CorgisPer60]

55 minutes is a small sample size...

We can extrapolate the results further by looking at Myers' historical numbers. We _know_ that he bleeds chances like a stuck pig, and none of our LHD are good enough to carry him (that aren't attached to much better RHD options). We have a plethora of defensemen on the bottom pair option, but none will mitigate the damage that Myers wreaks.

Ya. He's a glass cannon, a DPS player in a video game. Put him beside players like Perreault and you'll be fine.

Aye. I don't know if Laine will ever be able to drive possession, but he's one of the best snipers in the game. Put him with people that can feed him the puck.

 

[Psych0dad]

Im worried the top line is playing too much and I don't want them tired in a long playoff run.
​

I'm more worried that the 1st line isn't very good in it's current configuration.

Make a 1st line worth of those minutes.

 

[Psych0dad]

Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler (why mess with success)

Because they have shown rather mediocre numbers. Why must we pretend it's success?

Not like we are short on options.

 

[Whileee]

Because they have shown rather mediocre numbers. Why must we pretend it's success?

Not like we are short on options.

Their numbers have actually been quite spectacular together...

53.3% CF (rel +4.86)
52.0% xGF (rel +5.14)
73.1% GF (rel +28.8!)
61% PenD % (raw +9 penalty differential)

What numbers are you looking at?

 

[Psych0dad]

Actual results, not irrelevant stuff.

Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler
776mins
2.78GF/60
2.63GA/60


I know Ehlers is now on the first line, but it's not really that much of a difference.

That's pretty crappy. It's mildly on the positive side.

There are many much much better 1st lines in this league. They aren't elite, in this configuration

Now this would be a lot better configuration and a top line in the league....

*******-Scheifele-Laine
642mins
4.21GF/60
2.80GA/60

Thought I'd bring up a comparison that's obtainable with one single change.

Do the math.

 

[Jack722]

I know Ehlers is now on the first line, but it's not really that much of a difference.

Do the math.

really hard to take you seriously

 

[Psych0dad]

really hard to take you seriously

Because I post facts? What would you take seriously?

 

[204hockey]

Wow. Amazing analogy. You just went from a 10 to a 12 in my book.

can u explain it to me in context ? a little slow and hungover

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Actual results, not irrelevant stuff.

Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler
776mins
2.78GF/60
2.63GA/60


I know Ehlers is now on the first line, but it's not really that much of a difference.

That's pretty crappy. It's mildly on the positive side.

There are many much much better 1st lines in this league. They aren't elite, in this configuration

Now this would be a lot better configuration and a top line in the league....

*******-Scheifele-Laine
642mins
4.21GF/60
2.80GA/60

Thought I'd bring up a comparison that's obtainable with one single change.

Do the math.

So you think pairing Laine w/Scheifele and some other random winger will keep goals against flat and virtually double production? Who is going to get the puck to Scheifele or is he going to do all the heavy lifting himself?

 

[Whileee]

Actual results, not irrelevant stuff.

Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler
776mins
2.78GF/60
2.63GA/60


I know Ehlers is now on the first line, but it's not really that much of a difference.

That's pretty crappy. It's mildly on the positive side.

There are many much much better 1st lines in this league. They aren't elite, in this configuration

Now this would be a lot better configuration and a top line in the league....

*******-Scheifele-Laine
642mins
4.21GF/60
2.80GA/60

Thought I'd bring up a comparison that's obtainable with one single change.

Do the math.

Ehlers-Scheifele-xxxxx this season blows those numbers away in GF%.

 

[Psych0dad]

So you think pairing Laine w/Scheifele and some other random winger will keep goals against flat and virtually double production? Who is going to get the puck to Scheifele or is he going to do all the heavy lifting himself?

It worked when the players were 2 years younger and worse. What rational reason would you have for it NOT working now when they are 2 years older and better in every aspect? The expectation should be that it's even better now than it was then. Maybe 5+ GF/60 and 2.6 GA/60? That would be rational progression expectation due to player progress.

I don't know where and how you extract an expectation that they would be worse than then and not just a little but worse but dropping to 2.85 GF/60 level which is what Wheeler and Scheifele can produce, about 51% less than what Scheifele-Laine produced 2 years ago.

 

[Psych0dad]

Ehlers-Scheifele-xxxxx this season blows those numbers away in GF%.

Yeah let's add Laine to it and watch it get far better.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

This better not become another dedicated "let's find a spot for Laine" thread, as we already have that in the Roster thread, the Laine thread, and the PGT and GDT's. For those that denigrate the stats being discussed as irrelevant - I will happily remove you from this thread if you're not at least willing to discuss the relevancy before dismissing the stats.

 

[204hockey]

This better not become another dedicated "let's find a spot for Laine" thread, as we already have that in the Roster thread, the Laine thread, and the PGT and GDT's. For those that denigrate the stats being discussed as irrelevant - I will happily remove you from this thread if you're not at least willing to discuss the relevancy before dismissing the stats.

Who wld have thought us getting so lucky to get him wld be a blessing and a curse lol the joy he gave me in his first 2 seasons alone is something I won't forget just the excitement every time he stepped on the ice his rookie year was amazing

 

[garret9]

Stats update:

Analysis

• Perreault is good at everything and the best of the bunch, as expected. He tilts the ice more so in shot quantity than he does in shot quality, but he is the top-six talent in the bottom-six for the Jets.
• Lowry is all defense when it comes to shot volume, and including shot quality makes him look even better. That said, he does well at making the Jets few shots they make come from prime scoring areas.
• Copp is the Jets best pure defensive player. His defensive impact exceeds even Lowry. While he's not void of any offense, he is not exceptionally good at it either.
• Dano is very similar to Copp, although most of his defensive value comes from shot quality. Dano may be a better point producer than Copp, but they are quite similar in producing chances for the team.
• Petan's results interest me. It does remind one that offensive/defensive skill is not the same as impact, and individual performance is not the same as team performance. Part of it is likely Petan been trying to play a certain way to appease Maurice et al., and part of it is likely just to do with RAPM accounting for quality of linemates but not chemistry with linemates.
• Roslovic hasn't done well in improving his linemates offense, but it should be noted that in terms of individual scoring performance he has been the best of the entire bunch listed here.
• Appleton has done well treading above water, but it is a small sample so his confidence intervals are the largest.
• Tanev is extremely adept at defense, and extremely inept at offense. Again, this is a reminder that individual offense is different than team offense with the individual on the ice. Tanev works well with Lowry and Copp as they become specialized, but outside of that usage he becomes more harm than helpful.
• It is early, and things can change, but the early returns of Lemieux have not been as positive as Petan, Roslovic, or Appleton. Unlike Tanev, he doesn't excel in one particular area so he cannot be used as a specialist.

 

[ffh]

Stats update:

Analysis

• Perreault is good at everything and the best of the bunch, as expected. He tilts the ice more so in shot quantity than he does in shot quality, but he is the top-six talent in the bottom-six for the Jets.
• Lowry is all defense when it comes to shot volume, and including shot quality makes him look even better. That said, he does well at making the Jets few shots they make come from prime scoring areas.
• Copp is the Jets best pure defensive player. His defensive impact exceeds even Lowry. While he's not void of any offense, he is not exceptionally good at it either.
• Dano is very similar to Copp, although most of his defensive value comes from shot quality. Dano may be a better point producer than Copp, but they are quite similar in producing chances for the team.
• Petan's results interest me. It does remind one that offensive/defensive skill is not the same as impact, and individual performance is not the same as team performance. Part of it is likely Petan been trying to play a certain way to appease Maurice et al., and part of it is likely just to do with RAPM accounting for quality of linemates but not chemistry with linemates.
• Roslovic hasn't done well in improving his linemates offense, but it should be noted that in terms of individual scoring performance he has been the best of the entire bunch listed here.
• Appleton has done well treading above water, but it is a small sample so his confidence intervals are the largest.
• Tanev is extremely adept at defense, and extremely inept at offense. Again, this is a reminder that individual offense is different than team offense with the individual on the ice. Tanev works well with Lowry and Copp as they become specialized, but outside of that usage he becomes more harm than helpful.
• It is early, and things can change, but the early returns of Lemieux have not been as positive as Petan, Roslovic, or Appleton. Unlike Tanev, he doesn't excel in one particular area so he cannot be used as a specialist.

Dano and petan are not better at anything compared to Tanev including offense. Tanev has 7 goals in around 35 games this year I would bet you anything that petan won't get that many is his career in the NHL. Seriously how many years before he gets 7 goals.

 

[JetsFan815]

I would bet you anything that petan won't get that many is his career in the NHL. Seriously how many years before he gets 7 goals.

Merry Christmas to you too ffh

 

[garret9]

Dano and petan are not better at anything compared to Tanev including offense. Tanev has 7 goals in around 35 games this year I would bet you anything that petan won't get that many is his career in the NHL. Seriously how many years before he gets 7 goals.

First of all:

Over a set number of games with the same ice time, linemates, and linematching (etc) you have two players (and ignore the 40% luck in even a full season's worth of percentages)...

Player A scores 25 goals... the team with player A on the ice scores 125 goals but allows 140
Player B scores 15 goals... the team with player B on the ice scores 175 goals but allows 150

We know who the better defensive player is... it's A.
Player A may be the better offensive player, at least in your opinion, but B had the larger offensive impact. Don't confuse the two.

Petan is projecting to be player B vs Tanev being player A.

And secondly:

Dano has 4 goals, 8 assists, for 12 points in 511 minutes.
Tanev has 12 goals, 17 assists, for 29 points, but it took him 1517 minutes to get that far.

So, Dano scores 0.47 goals for every 60 mins of ice time and 1.41 points.
Tanev is also scoring 0.47 goals for every 60 minutes, but only 1.15 points.

So they have been equal in goal scoring.
Just Dano gets more assists, and his linemates get more goals with him. <- those two things are probably related.


It's not just fancy stats where you are just simply flat out wrong, but basic stats too.