Ducky10
Searching for Mark Scheifele
- Nov 14, 2014
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2018-19 stats and underlying metrics thread
- Thread starter garret9
- Start date
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Way to move the goalposts.
Take off your I hate Enstrom goggles and pay attention.
Moved goal posts and straw man in two sentences. Very skilled.
Mud Turtle
Registered User
- Jul 26, 2013
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Ok, True. But still, does he have the talent to be a 5-6 defenseman in the NHL? In your opinion.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
I’m not as high on him as others, but I know he is well liked internally and even then I still think he’ll be a competent bottom pair D.
Mud Turtle
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- Jul 26, 2013
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JetsFan815
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2012
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Yikes, Connor-Little-Laine when playing with Myers are absolutely radioactive in their own zone. Mo needs to do something to avoid this combination:
JetsFan815
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2012
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With the recent changes to the lines, the 1st line has been producing great results and to be honest if Maurice wants to use the Scheifele line in the heavy minutes and top competition deployments Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler is probably a way better fit than CSW.
That said, the 2nd line is now pretty scary defensively, I guess you just ride them out, shelter them and hope their offense makes up for that? They are okay defending against the rush but once the cycle starts they are in big trouble. I am really not sure what to do with that 2nd line. Maybe time to consider getting Perreault some minutes on that line to see if he can help and see if Connor can help the Lowry line convert all that zone time into some goals?
That said, the 2nd line is now pretty scary defensively, I guess you just ride them out, shelter them and hope their offense makes up for that? They are okay defending against the rush but once the cycle starts they are in big trouble. I am really not sure what to do with that 2nd line. Maybe time to consider getting Perreault some minutes on that line to see if he can help and see if Connor can help the Lowry line convert all that zone time into some goals?
Wouldn't mind seeing Perreault Little Laine and Connor with Roslo. Would be a way to get Roslo's minutes up too.
55 minutes is a small sample size...Yikes, Connor-Little-Laine when playing with Myers are absolutely radioactive in their own zone. Mo needs to do something to avoid this combination:
JetsFan815
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- Jan 16, 2012
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Gil Fisher
Registered User
I'm intrigued by the discrepancy between Buff's and Chiarot's 5v5 CF%. It's 53.7% v 47.6% despite playing most of their time together. It has been trending this way since before Buff's concussion too. Is Chiarot dragging Buff down? Where are the WOWYs for Chiarot - can someone post a graph?
I'd still like to see Niku with Buff.
Maukkis
EZ4ENCE
- Mar 16, 2016
- 10,559
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Another one. (5v5)
SV%: 90.73
xSV%: 91.66
There was a point at which Hellebuyck was at 90 and his xSV% at 91.4. Thinking that was during the stint without Buff. Connor still overperforms the expectation at 4v5 by a large margin (89.15 / 86.42). In all situations, he's also over the expectation (actual 90.85, expected 90.55).
Hockeyreference has the league average SV% at 90.7 (which Hellebuyck is beating, mind you). Thinking the equipment change is hurting a lot of goalies, and 37 isn't an exception here.
JetsFan815
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- Jan 16, 2012
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Laine's "advanced stats" are absolutely in the toilet this season. The faint-hearted should not look at them. I had originally posted them here but they were too depressing and I did not have the heart to leave them up here. 
I wonder what the Jets can do to help him out on that front. He doesn't need to drive play like a Couturier or Bergeron but he should atleast be able to get somewhere close to 50%. Stapling Perreault on that line is a short term answer but it seems that something fundamental about how he plays needs to be addressed.
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I wonder what the Jets can do to help him out on that front. He doesn't need to drive play like a Couturier or Bergeron but he should atleast be able to get somewhere close to 50%. Stapling Perreault on that line is a short term answer but it seems that something fundamental about how he plays needs to be addressed.
Last edited:
Maukkis
EZ4ENCE
- Mar 16, 2016
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Laine is capable of beating his xG numbers in an unprecedented way, but it certainly is worrying that whichever line he is on usually loses the shot share. That is something I'd love to see change.
The xG stuff was referred to a while ago by Dimitri Filipovic in a piece at Eliteprospects. Have a look at this: (2016-present)
Also, this.
JetsFan815
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2012
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Laine is capable of beating his xG numbers in an unprecedented way, but it certainly is worrying that whichever line he is on usually loses the shot share. That is something I'd love to see change.
The xG stuff was referred to a while ago by Dimitri Filipovic in a piece at Eliteprospects. Have a look at this: (2016-present)
Also, this.
Yeah I am not concerned about the individual numbers. His individual shot rates are fine and I am comfortable with the assertion that he can beat out the public xG model, however hovering around ~46-47% Corsi can't be a recipe for success esp on a team that has a strong shot share. Esp when my eye test is pretty much in alignment with the numbers. You quoted my post before my ninja-edit
but as I said in my edit, he doesn't need to be elite like Bergeron in those stats but the Jets should aim for him to atleast be close to breaking even, he is doing much worse there even by his standards of the first two seasons.The good news is that Laine will improve still for many years, and even if he doesn't, just put him with Scheifele (or another Stastny) and no-one will care about defense because they are scoring non-stop.
Little is fantastic in the D-zone but they can't seem to develop offensive chemistry for long stretches at a time. It's a chemistry mismatch on that line, but if this is some kind of developmental choice, then why not. I'm not gonna tell the chef how to prepare the soup, I can only point out if there are major pubic hairs in the soup like ELL.
Little is fantastic in the D-zone but they can't seem to develop offensive chemistry for long stretches at a time. It's a chemistry mismatch on that line, but if this is some kind of developmental choice, then why not. I'm not gonna tell the chef how to prepare the soup, I can only point out if there are major pubic hairs in the soup like ELL.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
One thing we do have to account for as well is difference between a player's personal shots/shooting/xG and the on ice shots/shooting/xG...
Patrik Laine's even strength xG differential per hour: -0.68
Patrik Laine's even strength G differential per hour: -0.59
Ya, he's struggling at even strength this year alright.
Patrik Laine's even strength xG differential per hour: -0.68
Patrik Laine's even strength G differential per hour: -0.59
Ya, he's struggling at even strength this year alright.
pucka lucka
Registered User
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
I made an adjusted P/60 model. It adjusts for "luck" not for usage, and I have some tweaks I want to make for working with A2s, so keep that in mind. Just thought I'd post the Jets results here for fun.
This is per hour and for 3 seasons combined (2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19):
Scheifele 2.36
Wheeler 2.17
Laine 2.16
Ehlers 2.06
Roslovic 1.88
Connor 1.85
Little 1.82
Stastny 1.82
Perreault 1.73
Dano 1.55
Lowry 1.54
Armia 1.52
Appleton 1.50
Copp 1.42
Stafford 1.33
Hendricks 1.28
Petan 1.26
Burmistrov 1.23
Tanev 1.18
Matthias 1.07
Thorburn 0.97
Lemieux 0.75
This is per hour and for 3 seasons combined (2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19):
Scheifele 2.36
Wheeler 2.17
Laine 2.16
Ehlers 2.06
Roslovic 1.88
Connor 1.85
Little 1.82
Stastny 1.82
Perreault 1.73
Dano 1.55
Lowry 1.54
Armia 1.52
Appleton 1.50
Copp 1.42
Stafford 1.33
Hendricks 1.28
Petan 1.26
Burmistrov 1.23
Tanev 1.18
Matthias 1.07
Thorburn 0.97
Lemieux 0.75
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Ya. He's a glass cannon, a DPS player in a video game. Put him beside players like Perreault and you'll be fine.
204hockey
#whiteout
- Sep 29, 2017
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would putting someone like copp who is better in his own end in place of connor help that line?
i also notice our breakouts always shift to right d up the wall where he is abyssmal at making the first touch and usually tries to eat it and shield off forecheckers. maybe work that to the left side when hes on .. lol
i also notice our breakouts always shift to right d up the wall where he is abyssmal at making the first touch and usually tries to eat it and shield off forecheckers. maybe work that to the left side when hes on .. lol
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Personally, if I were to build the lines for a healthy Jets...
1) I would start with having Perreault with Laine. Perreault has the best defensive impact this season on xGs. He is also only behind the shutdown quadruplet of Lowry, Copp, Dano, and Tanev over the previous three seasons combined, but he creates a lot more offense for his linemates than those four players.
Perreault-x-Laine
2) Secondly --since I would have three scoring lines and one shutdown line-- the shutdown line would have Copp and Lowry, both elite shutdown defenders. The second winger would be one of Appleton, Tanev, or Dano. I'd lean Dano, as Dano and Tanev have almost equal defensive impact, but Dano has been much better offensively... although Appleton has looked good in short sample.
Perreault-x1-Laine
Copp-Lowry-x2
3) I would keep Scheifele with Wheeler, and place Little with the Perreault-Laine until someone passes Little on the depth charts (via trade like Stastny or Roslovic/Petan taking another step).
x1-Scheifele-Wheeler
Perreault-Little-Laine
x2-x3-x4
Copp-Lowry-x5
4) This is where things become a little bit less certain. You have two options...
a) Load up the top talent: place Ehlers on the top line.
Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler
Perreault-Little-Laine
x2-x3-x4
Copp-Lowry-Tanev/Appleton/Dano
b) Spread out the talent: place someone weaker on the line (Petan) and give the third line similar minutes.
Petan-Scheifele-Wheeler
Perreault-Little-Laine
Ehlers-Roslovic-Connor
Copp-Lowry-Tanev/Appleton/Dano
If you choose 4a) then you have to decide if Roslovic is the better centre (then go Petan-Roslovic-Connor) or if Petan is the better centre (then go Connor-Petan-Roslovic).
204hockey
#whiteout
- Sep 29, 2017
- 3,481
- 2,468
that C P R line sounds heart palpitating in a good way might even ressuscitate the 4 line beast we had last year
ehlers shief wheeler
perro litts laine
connor petan rosi
copp lowry (tanev - cus we know mo likes him and hes been having a good year)
Maukkis
EZ4ENCE
- Mar 16, 2016
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PLL has worked in the past. I do not know why Maurice has not went back to using those three as a unit. ESW is likely a unit that can stay together until injuries do them part.
Since it is basically a given that Maurice won't start playing all four lines more evenly, I wonder if Connor could be the third wheel on the shutdown line with Copp and Lowry. Would add a shooting threat to that line too, which it lacks in basically all of the forms it has been in (MP, Tanev, Roslo + C&L). It sucks for the fourth line, but aside from Roslovic, you would have most of the guys who deserve significant minutes playing accordingly. The fourth line could be... X-Roslovic-Tanev, with X being Lemieux or Petan. Hopefully the latter, anyway.
