mcpw
WPG
- Jan 13, 2015
- 10,024
- 2,072
Could be right. I'll be interested to see how this develops. Seems that a lot of crappy teams are running up big shot totals while some good teams are valuing possession more. The game last night was a good example. The Jets tortured the Devils in the 3rd while NJ racked up a Corsi advantage.
Honestly, this can be mathematically proven. Take a pair of correlated random variables (each binomially distributed), use a very small sample (like n<100) of one variable (which results in a huge variance = n/4), and watch the correlation fade on average. You can basically take any 15-ish set of games and watch the same effect.
About crappy teams: we'll need a classifier of what teams are supposed to be crappy (unless you mean by eye test, and yes, the Devils don't look good right now). Let's focus on four data points in the graph I posted (early 17-18 results):
46% CF / 52% GF --- Jets
50% CF / 35% GF --- Penguins
52% CF / 58% GF --- Blues
56% CF / 51% GF --- Hurricanes
Which teams are the crappy ones? Clearly the answer is: can't tell from such a small sample size.