2018-19 Roster Speculation: Tis the season

[dotcommunism]

Don't really see why Seattle would be more inclined to select Okposo than Vegas was to take Bogosian. Aside from that, I highly doubt that a 2nd and a prospect would be enough to entice them to take on 3 years of Okposo's contract (assuming a 2020 expansion draft). Tampa paid a 2nd, and 4th and a prospect to get Vegas to take just one year of Jason Garrison's contract.

 

[Djp]

We get Ellie for free who's similar to Carrier. We lose Carrier and keep Ullmark and give up a 6th I believe and people are calling out Botterill. I admire Botterill's patience. Would love to get rid of a lot of fluff contracts but he's not jepoardizing the future cap for interim. I would like to see him get rid of Okposo and Berglund's long-term deals but after this year we lose Pominiville, Moulson, and Larsson (11 million) and can hopefully re-sign Skinner. The following year we get rid of Bogosian, Sobotka, Scandella, Hunwick (16 million) to re-sign Reinhart and Dahlin long-term.

Buyout calculator time

Okposo - This would be tough and literally impact our cap for a while. If we can give him to Seattle somehow, that would be huge. Or if a new CBA happens, and we get a compliance buy out that would also be great

2019-20	$3,000,000	$6,000,000	$1,000,000	$2,000,000	$4,000,000
2020-21	$3,000,000	$6,000,000	$1,000,000	$2,000,000	$4,000,000
2021-22	$2,000,000	$6,000,000	$1,000,000	$1,000,000	$5,000,000
2022-23	$4,000,000	$6,000,000	$1,000,000	$3,000,000	$3,000,000
2023-24	$0	$0	$1,000,000	-$1,000,000	$1,000,000
2024-25	$0	$0	$1,000,000	-$1,000,000	$1,000,000
2025-26	$0	$0	$1,000,000	-$1,000,000	$1,000,000
2026-27	$0	$0	$1,000,000	-$1,000,000	$1,000,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Berglund - Not really worth it, better off letting him play out on the fourth line as a purely defensive center

2019-20	$4,500,000	$3,850,000	$1,094,444	$3,405,556	$444,444
2020-21	$2,900,000	$3,850,000	$1,094,444	$1,805,556	$2,044,444
2021-22	$2,450,000	$3,850,000	$1,094,444	$1,355,556	$2,494,444
2022-23	$0	$0	$1,094,444	-$1,094,444	$1,094,444
2023-24	$0	$0	$1,094,444	-$1,094,444	$1,094,444
2024-25	$0	$0	$1,094,444	-$1,094,444	$1,094,444

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

We are still paying Cody Hodgson until 2022-2023, $791,667


Our RFA situation is going to be real interesting next year: Who is qualified for more than they are making currently?

Girgensons making 1.6 - 50/50

Beaulieu making 2.4 - No

McCabe making 1.6 - 50/50

Larsson making 1.475 - No

The other RFAs are all signigantly less money and likely to be qualified minus a few prospects.

You should look at 2020 offseason.....

Current roster players signed...with $84M cap

F berglund, KO, and Eichel for $20M
D. Risto, Dahlin. For $6:4M
G Hutton for $2.75M

Starting with goalie ...

Ullmark is signed as for $3.5M is a future starter. G total is $5,75M

For Defense...mccabe is resigned at $3.0M, Pilut on a $2M bridge, Borgen on an ELC, Guhle on a $2M bridge. $2M vet as 6th Dman. 7 Dman total is around $17M

With forwards...

Assume KO isn’t incentives to be raked in ED by Seattle

Xxx-Eichel-Reinhart (6)
Nylander(E) -Mitts(B)-Thompson (B)
Xxx-Asplund (E)-xxx
girgs/erod (2)-Berglund-xxx
KO, xxx

E=1, B=2....so totals far is 14+20=34M with 5 roster spots with 57M spent so far.

If 3 of 5 filled by prospects and Rochester players for $5M combined that gives them $62M with 2 forward spots.

As I have said before ideally they resign Skinner for 4-5 yrs at $8M then nylander on ELC and 2-3 yr bridge could balance out cap space. That gives them $70M with 1 roster spot and an impending high contract for Dahlin at say $8M.

The other option is you keep Sherry at a lower $5M 4 yr contract.

If they can get Seattle to take KO then that makes it far easier.

That’s why I hope one of the SRL=SJ picks moves to 2020 and if they trade Skinner the 1st occurs in 020 so buffalo could say to Seattle “take KO and we give you a 1st and one of the ELC prospect”

I see buffalo trading other players for picks with retained salary.

In 2020 if berglund doesn’t opt to retire, buffalo could trade him with salary retained at a cap hit of $2M per to New team.

 

[dortt]

cap question

If we wanted to bury a player in the minors, could that player retire from the NHL and then sign an AHL contract worth the same amount as the NHL contract would have been? I know if we send him down and the NHL contract remains in place, we only get about 1 million in cap relief. Wondering what the policy is if they are playing in the AHL on an AHL contract

 

[Reddawg]

NHL contracts are guaranteed, so the cap hit remains regardless of the player’s roster status (unless they are injured long-term). Pavel Datsyuk retired as an NHL player to finish his career in the KHL in 2016 but he was under contract until 2017. The Red Wings dealt his cap hit to the Coyotes and gave up the pick that became Jacob Chychrun in the process.

 

[dotcommunism]

cap question

If we wanted to bury a player in the minors, could that player retire from the NHL and then sign an AHL contract worth the same amount as the NHL contract would have been? I know if we send him down and the NHL contract remains in place, we only get about 1 million in cap relief. Wondering what the policy is if they are playing in the AHL on an AHL contract

What you suggest is pretty blatant salary cap circumvention and if a team tried doing something like that, they would be penalized.

NHL contracts are guaranteed, so the cap hit remains regardless of the player’s roster status (unless they are injured long-term). Pavel Datsyuk retired as an NHL player to finish his career in the KHL in 2016 but he was under contract until 2017. The Red Wings dealt his cap hit to the Coyotes and gave up the pick that became Jacob Chychrun in the process.

Contracts and cap hits go away when a player retires. However, there are exceptions, and Datsyuk is one of those. For players who are 35 or older at the time their contract starts, if they are signed to multi-year deals, their cap hit remains even if they retire. That's what brings us to Datsyuk. Also note, however, that he wasn't officially retired at the time of the trade to Arizona, otherwise he would not have been tradable.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Thoughts on resigning skinner? Can't do it until January (?).

Is he a trade deadline deal if we are out of the playoffs(if he waives) or do we try to resign him and how much?

 

[dotcommunism]

Thoughts on resigning skinner? Can't do it until January (?).

Is he a trade deadline deal if we are out of the playoffs(if he waives) or do we try to resign him and how much?

That only applies to guys on one year deals. Skinner is in the last year of a six year deal. He can sign an extension whenever.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

That only applies to guys on one year deals. Skinner is in the last year of a six year deal. He can sign an extension whenever.

Anything from Botts on what direction they want to go?

 

[Reddawg]

Anything from Botts on what direction they want to go?

I'm just speculating but with 77 more games to go he'd probably like to see some more Sabres hockey out of the lad before committing $50 million to him or shipping him out for more futures.

 

[Djp]

That only applies to guys on one year deals. Skinner is in the last year of a six year deal. He can sign an extension whenever.

Thoughts on resigning skinner? Can't do it until January (?).

Is he a trade deadline deal if we are out of the playoffs(if he waives) or do we try to resign him and how much?

Just to add.....ROR is a counter example. Buffalo acquired him at the draft then in the summer they signed him fir 7 yrs.

They could sign Skinner any time.

 

[Djp]

Don't really see why Seattle would be more inclined to select Okposo than Vegas was to take Bogosian. Aside from that, I highly doubt that a 2nd and a prospect would be enough to entice them to take on 3 years of Okposo's contract (assuming a 2020 expansion draft). Tampa paid a 2nd, and 4th and a prospect to get Vegas to take just one year of Jason Garrison's contract.

Vegas took a cap dump from Anaheim and got Theodore.

I don’t recall what the cap floor now is, but the team needs to reach the cap floor with the highest 23 players.

They need to take about 10 players on high salaries of $5M cap hit or higher on average. To take these players they want to get prospects and picks.

 

[1972]

Thoughts on resigning skinner? Can't do it until January (?).

Is he a trade deadline deal if we are out of the playoffs(if he waives) or do we try to resign him and how much?

Play out till the TDL and see.

 

[sabrebuild]

Given the emergence of Dahlin and how quickly he could become one of the top defenders in the league, I say you lock up Skinner. If obviously you can get a decent long term number. If they can keep the aav under 7 million I'd go for it right away. If the number looks like Kane’s deal in San Jose, it’s a tough pill to swallow, but he is available quality depth to insulate the development of Mitts and Asplund as they come onto the team.

With the elc’s and Reinhart’s bridge the time is now to load up and see if you can make a jump.

 

[nickdawg95]

Pominvile / moulson are gone this year hunwick bogo sobotka the next that's 20.5 mill

only person Johnny cash hurting us is okposo. i feel like he will get top pp time and continue to play in the top 6 to justify his contract.

man, him on the point on pp1 is cringey

 

[Der Jaeger]

Don't really see why Seattle would be more inclined to select Okposo than Vegas was to take Bogosian. Aside from that, I highly doubt that a 2nd and a prospect would be enough to entice them to take on 3 years of Okposo's contract (assuming a 2020 expansion draft). Tampa paid a 2nd, and 4th and a prospect to get Vegas to take just one year of Jason Garrison's contract.

With the Sabres glut of 2019 1sts, they could get away with moving some picks to get rid of Okposo. Clarkson moved for a draft year 1st and an out-year second, and he wasn't even playing.

By the 2020 expansion draft, Okposo will have 3 years left, same as Clarkson when traded. Move their 2020 first, and their 2021 second, and Seattle might take him.

 

[Reddawg]

With the Sabres glut of 2019 1sts, they could get away with moving some picks to get rid of Okposo. Clarkson moved for a draft year 1st and an out-year second, and he wasn't even playing.

By the 2020 expansion draft, Okposo will have 3 years left, same as Clarkson when traded. Move their 2020 first, and their 2021 second, and Seattle might take him.

I'd rather have those two picks than freedom from Okposo. A hugely expensive nonentity like Clarkson or Nathan Horton isn't the same thing as an Okposo, you don't pay that big of a price to move him somewhere else. Even in a massively down season like last year, he still potted 44 points for us. Just not the same thing as carrying a huge cap hit like Clarkson around knowing full well that even if he does ever put on his skates again (which he won't) he still isn't good for more than a dozen points at very best.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I'd rather have those two picks than freedom from Okposo. A hugely expensive nonentity like Clarkson or Nathan Horton isn't the same thing as an Okposo, you don't pay that big of a price to move him somewhere else. Even in a massively down season like last year, he still potted 44 points for us. Just not the same thing as carrying a huge cap hit like Clarkson around knowing full well that even if he does ever put on his skates again (which he won't) he still isn't good for more than a dozen points at very best.

Okposo's big seasons came at ages 25 thought 27. He's 30. He won't get much better than the 40ish he'll put up. He's a play killer most nights. When he was scoring big for the Isles, he was away from Tavares and playing with Nielsen, a 200 foot center who covered for Okposo and didn't need the puck. Okposo drove the line.

Now, Okposo can't drive a line anymore, and he doesn't have a ton of chemistry with anyone now that ROR is gone. That makes two wingers the Sabres have that have a history of playing better when they drive their line: Skinner and Okposo. Sabres have too many good forwards coming up for Okposo to keep a spot in that type of role.

I'll gladly pay that price to gain some line chemistry.

 

[Reddawg]

I'll gladly pay that price to gain some line chemistry.

I would too, but shipping a guy out for no return doesn't improve line chemistry. It just saves you some money and then you have to hope to spend it wisely. Better to just milk the last reasonable bit of hockey out of him we can get over the next couple years, and then ask him which AHL team he prefers for the final stage of his career and loan him there Moulson style.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I would too, but shipping a guy out for no return doesn't improve line chemistry. It just saves you some money and then you have to hope to spend it wisely. Better to just milk the last reasonable bit of hockey out of him we can get over the next couple years, and then ask him which AHL team he prefers for the final stage of his career and loan him there Moulson style.

Imagine the lines with Okposo gone, at the start of the 2020 season, with Skinner gone at the TDL this season, and re-signing Sheary:

Sherry - Eichel - Reinhart
Nylander - Mittelstadt - Thompson
Asplund - XXX - Olofsson
Elie - Berglund - Rodrigues
Wilson

I like that line-up a lot. Need a 3C. Top target for the 2019 draft.

 

[dotcommunism]

With the Sabres glut of 2019 1sts, they could get away with moving some picks to get rid of Okposo. Clarkson moved for a draft year 1st and an out-year second, and he wasn't even playing.

By the 2020 expansion draft, Okposo will have 3 years left, same as Clarkson when traded. Move their 2020 first, and their 2021 second, and Seattle might take him.

If anything that probably made him more attractive to Vegas. No headache in figuring out what to do with him, and they recoup any insurance money. The cap space didn't really mean anything to them.

 

[Yultron]

Imagine the lines with Okposo gone, at the start of the 2020 season, with Skinner gone at the TDL this season, and re-signing Sheary:

Sherry - Eichel - Reinhart
Nylander - Mittelstadt - Thompson
Asplund - XXX - Olofsson
Elie - Berglund - Rodrigues
Wilson

I like that line-up a lot. Need a 3C. Top target for the 2019 draft.

And why are we trading Skinner ? We don’t need any more draft picks: Yes we don’t have a 2nd round pick and we won’t have a 3rd after Sheary eclipses 40 points but we already have three 1st round picks . We should resign him and keep him long term and help develop that winning culture

 

[ZZamboni]

Unless a winger is prime Patrick Kane or equivalent, I’m just highly allergic to paying most wingers 7+ mil. for multiple years.

 

[SatanwasaSlovak]

So given how Pilut is performing in the AHL, i would trade him for Nelson in a second. I wouldn't sit Nathan though, considering he has been good and would send the wrong message if you sit a well-performing player. I mean, he's the only defender that's a +-player.

 

[HaNotsri]

If Skinner gets us a 1st round pick or more I’d be tempted. We can sign him Moulsonstyle - hopefully with a better outcome.

When it comes to extension I think we’ll be fine as long as there’s no NMC and no longer than 6 years.
If he can drive his own line and score 25+ it makes up for our lack of depth when it comes to skill. Cap won’t be an issue if we bridge Nylander/Mittelstadt/Thompson/Guhle.

I don’t like our outlook on C but this would be a decent lineup long term:
Sheary-Eichel-Reinhart
Rodrigues-Mittelstadt-Nylander
Skinner-Asplund-Thompson

 

[Djp]

Imagine the lines with Okposo gone, at the start of the 2020 season, with Skinner gone at the TDL this season, and re-signing Sheary:

Sherry - Eichel - Reinhart
Nylander - Mittelstadt - Thompson
Asplund - XXX - Olofsson
Elie - Berglund - Rodrigues
Wilson

I like that line-up a lot. Need a 3C. Top target for the 2019 draft.

I though Asplund was a center?

this is one reason why I think they keep Girgs because he can play center or wing.

Wilson is a UFA in 2020. Buffalo would have a bunch of forwards in Rochester for spots here

Bailey, Malone, Ogelvie, Smith, Oregan and unsigned Davidsson, and Pekar.