Prospect Info: 2018/19 Marlies & Prospects Thread Part V

[justafan22]

Sandin looks amazing

 

[Orfieus]

the guy who headshot Borgman last night, anything coming from that?

 

[ErnieLeafs]

He and Lilj are both solid. The thing is the cap distribution, without the luxury tax in the new CBA we just draft develop and trade in rapid succession.

I’ve been banging the luxury tax drum for years. Wealthy teams shouldn’t be punished for being profitable like they are now. Charge them a fee for going over a soft cap, and distribute revenue that way.

 

[Lil Tuzzi Bert]

Anyone like the nickname Hollow for Hollowell?

 

[Mr Hockey]

Anyone like the nickname Hollow for Hollowell?

He looks smaller than Ennis out there, nice skills though

 

[Fogelhund]

I’ve been banging the luxury tax drum for years. Wealthy teams shouldn’t be punished for being profitable like they are now. Charge them a fee for going over a soft cap, and distribute revenue that way.

I think there should be a tax jurisdiction modifier as well.

 

[ITM]

Anyone like the nickname Hollow for Hollowell?

Tough to improve upon his first name as his nickname. From Hollowell, you'd probably get "Welly".

 

[WilliamInLondon]

I’ve been banging the luxury tax drum for years. Wealthy teams shouldn’t be punished for being profitable like they are now. Charge them a fee for going over a soft cap, and distribute revenue that way.

the hard cap is moronic and basically destroys any consistency or continuity of success in the game. the playoffs as a whole is already enough of a grind and can yield random outcomes in a given season due to a goalie getting hot or key injuries. the hard cap basically reduces contention windows to 2-3 years and doesn't sufficiently reward organizations for drafting and developing their top talent.

something has to change - i disagree with his conclusion about Marner and Matthews definitely leaving after 5 seasons, but he's not wrong about how the tax structure disincentivizes players from playing in certain markets; it's also why certain teams have greater chances to beat the constraints of the hard cap under its current configurations.

i was thinking of sending my data and analysis to support the claims above to a site like fivethirtyeight.com. i'm a Leaf fan, but this isn't about the Leafs who lost to Boston fair and square; it isn't about their cap crunch. It's about the fairness of the league within hockey, maximizing the entertainment value of the sport, and to a certain extent, ensuring sufficient salary, distribution of wealth, and competitive across the league for both players and owners alike.

there are various CBA discussions to be had regarding this topic, but from a purely competitiveness and fairness standpoint, the present hard cap structure is sub-optimal for the league and biased to a half dozen teams through no merit of their own (i.e. governmental tax policies). i would at the very least, fix this first and implement some sort of cap policy like:

1) a hard cap on the basis of NET salary (i.e. post taxes)

and/or

2) allow a CBA agreed alteration to the existing rules - for example, UFA increased from 27 years and 7 years service increased to 28 years and 8 years service in return for the gross/net salary of players who re-sign with their original teams (i.e. either the team that drafted them; the team in which they made their NHL debut; or service time with same team for 3+ seasons) count for only 75% of the cap vs. a player switching teams; in return for the expected salary inflation driven by wealthier teams, this 25% differential would be placed into a pot which then is redistributed to smaller market teams on the basis of attendance-driven revenue.

just some ideas; flame away, or contribute to the ideas.

sidenote: i'm a data scientist at a global tech firm by day. if you guys seriously have ideas on this topic, i'd love to hear them, crunch the data, and see if it can reach a broader audience. it certainly makes for interesting discussion.

 

[ITM]

You are aware that the cap has consistenly increased by 4-5 million every year?
You are aware that there are potentially larger increases coming with a new franchise and revenue from other sources like gambling?
You are aware that other player contracts, who these players can replace, will be coming off the books?
You are aware that these kids are a year or more away, and when they do come up they will be on entry level contracts for a few years?

Why are you worrying about what these kids will be looking for in 3-5 years? Everyone needs to relax about our cap. It will be more than fine long term.

Invert "You are..." to "Are you..." and then find somewhere to STICKY those questions.

Good stuff.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

You are aware that the cap has consistenly increased by 4-5 million every year?
You are aware that there are potentially larger increases coming with a new franchise and revenue from other sources like gambling?
You are aware that other player contracts, who these players can replace, will be coming off the books?
You are aware that these kids are a year or more away, and when they do come up they will be on entry level contracts for a few years?

Why are you worrying about what these kids will be looking for in 3-5 years? Everyone needs to relax about our cap. It will be more than fine long term.

if all of the players and agents are aware of these facts, this isn't going to help the case. logic dictates that anyone under the age of 25 is going to go for a 5 year deal like Matthews to max out, and then hit the market again at age 27-28 (post-inflation due to market expansion, cable deals, etc.) to cash in twice. this is exactly what happened/is happening in the NBA, and will be even more troublesome in the NHL because: 1) the NBA doesn't have a hard cap like the NHL; 2) the impact of a single player in the NHL is not as great as that of the NBA

 

[thewave]

Invert "You are..." to "Are you..." and then find somewhere to STICKY those questions.

Good stuff.

It would help if what he said was true. 07-08 50m 18-19 80m or so. Many years required a kicker to get an increase and that kicks the can down the road. More like 2.5m a year.

Do the economies look overly healthy right now? I don't know, maybe the CBA will claw back again.

 

[Blueboy]

Anyone like the nickname Hollow for Hollowell?

No

 

[HandshakeLineRespect]

I think there should be a tax jurisdiction modifier as well.

Never going to happen. Impossible to implement. Ridiculous idea.

 

[Lil Tuzzi Bert]

No

Fun guy at parties I imagine

 

[Lil Tuzzi Bert]

Tough to improve upon his first name as his nickname. From Hollowell, you'd probably get "Welly".

Yeah fair enough I imagine Welly is what the lads in the room probably call him. Just trying some out see if they work

 

[pylon17]

the hard cap is moronic and basically destroys any consistency or continuity of success in the game. the playoffs as a whole is already enough of a grind and can yield random outcomes in a given season due to a goalie getting hot or key injuries. the hard cap basically reduces contention windows to 2-3 years and doesn't sufficiently reward organizations for drafting and developing their top talent.

something has to change - i disagree with his conclusion about Marner and Matthews definitely leaving after 5 seasons, but he's not wrong about how the tax structure disincentivizes players from playing in certain markets; it's also why certain teams have greater chances to beat the constraints of the hard cap under its current configurations.

i was thinking of sending my data and analysis to support the claims above to a site like fivethirtyeight.com. i'm a Leaf fan, but this isn't about the Leafs who lost to Boston fair and square; it isn't about their cap crunch. It's about the fairness of the league within hockey, maximizing the entertainment value of the sport, and to a certain extent, ensuring sufficient salary, distribution of wealth, and competitive across the league for both players and owners alike.

there are various CBA discussions to be had regarding this topic, but from a purely competitiveness and fairness standpoint, the present hard cap structure is sub-optimal for the league and biased to a half dozen teams through no merit of their own (i.e. governmental tax policies). i would at the very least, fix this first and implement some sort of cap policy like:

1) a hard cap on the basis of NET salary (i.e. post taxes)

and/or

2) allow a CBA agreed alteration to the existing rules - for example, UFA increased from 27 years and 7 years service increased to 28 years and 8 years service in return for the gross/net salary of players who re-sign with their original teams (i.e. either the team that drafted them; the team in which they made their NHL debut; or service time with same team for 3+ seasons) count for only 75% of the cap vs. a player switching teams; in return for the expected salary inflation driven by wealthier teams, this 25% differential would be placed into a pot which then is redistributed to smaller market teams on the basis of attendance-driven revenue.

just some ideas; flame away, or contribute to the ideas.

sidenote: i'm a data scientist at a global tech firm by day. if you guys seriously have ideas on this topic, i'd love to hear them, crunch the data, and see if it can reach a broader audience. it certainly makes for interesting discussion.

No. Just no. Parity is waaaaaay better. Hockey is a team game. There’s always nba and mlb for u.

 

[Eye Test]

the hard cap is moronic and basically destroys any consistency or continuity of success in the game. the playoffs as a whole is already enough of a grind and can yield random outcomes in a given season due to a goalie getting hot or key injuries. the hard cap basically reduces contention windows to 2-3 years and doesn't sufficiently reward organizations for drafting and developing their top talent.

something has to change - i disagree with his conclusion about Marner and Matthews definitely leaving after 5 seasons, but he's not wrong about how the tax structure disincentivizes players from playing in certain markets; it's also why certain teams have greater chances to beat the constraints of the hard cap under its current configurations.

i was thinking of sending my data and analysis to support the claims above to a site like fivethirtyeight.com. i'm a Leaf fan, but this isn't about the Leafs who lost to Boston fair and square; it isn't about their cap crunch. It's about the fairness of the league within hockey, maximizing the entertainment value of the sport, and to a certain extent, ensuring sufficient salary, distribution of wealth, and competitive across the league for both players and owners alike.

there are various CBA discussions to be had regarding this topic, but from a purely competitiveness and fairness standpoint, the present hard cap structure is sub-optimal for the league and biased to a half dozen teams through no merit of their own (i.e. governmental tax policies). i would at the very least, fix this first and implement some sort of cap policy like:

1) a hard cap on the basis of NET salary (i.e. post taxes)

and/or

2) allow a CBA agreed alteration to the existing rules - for example, UFA increased from 27 years and 7 years service increased to 28 years and 8 years service in return for the gross/net salary of players who re-sign with their original teams (i.e. either the team that drafted them; the team in which they made their NHL debut; or service time with same team for 3+ seasons) count for only 75% of the cap vs. a player switching teams; in return for the expected salary inflation driven by wealthier teams, this 25% differential would be placed into a pot which then is redistributed to smaller market teams on the basis of attendance-driven revenue.

just some ideas; flame away, or contribute to the ideas.

sidenote: i'm a data scientist at a global tech firm by day. if you guys seriously have ideas on this topic, i'd love to hear them, crunch the data, and see if it can reach a broader audience. it certainly makes for interesting discussion.

I took one class of statistics in university and never took another one again. Kudos.

One idea I heard before was allow a team like the nfl does to allow one star player to not count under the cap.

Adjusting the formula for cap hit by the tax district. Example kucherovs cap hit would actually be higher than it is.

 

[stickty111]

I am tracking Lilly's game yesterday.
Here is the 1st period.

1st Shift: Lilly gets the puck behind his net, and spins away to avoid the forechecker, and passes to his D partner. Shortly later, he gets the puck from his goalie, and spins to get away from a Monsters player, and carries it back to the front of his net before making short pass to his D partner.
Shift Length: 0.29

2nd Shift: After a puck battle on the right side boards, Lilly gets the puck and carries to the back of his net, and passes to his D partner. Off the faceoff just outside the Marlies blueline, Lilly passes to his D partner.
Shift Length: 0.38

3rd Shift: Lilly pinches inside the Monsters zone, and passes it back to the point. Later, Lilly gets the puck in his zone, and passes to Timashov just inside his blueline. After his teammate pins the Monsters player to the boards, Lilly picks up the puck behind his net, and carries it to his blueline before lifting a pass to his teammate at the centre ice line.
Shift Length: 0.55

4th Shift: Nothing noteworthy here
Shift Length: 0.20

5th Shift: A PK shift
Shift Length: 0.42

6th Shift: A powerplay shift.
On one play, Lilly came up a bit as if to shoot, and then sent a pass to a teammate on the left circle. This was a nice play by him and the goalie seemed to have a delayed reaction on the pass. Shift Length: 0:36

7th Shift: Lilly gets the puck just before the centre ice line, and skates back to his blueline and passes it to Engvall who gives it back to Lilly. He waits and sends a stretch pass to Mueller who can’t receive it. Shortly after, Lilly receives a pass from Moore in his zone and passes to his D partner. Lilly gets the puck just before his blueline after Borgman hits a Monsters player, and passes it to his teammate on the other side.
Shift Length: 1:01

8th Shift: Nothing noteworthy here
Shift Length: 0.24

9th Shift: Off the faceoff in the Monsters zone, Lilly gets the puck just passed the blueline, and carries it just before his blueline, and passes to his D partner. Later, Lilly receives a pass from his D partner and shoots the puck in. Lilly gets the puck from his D partner at the point, and comes in towards the right side boards and shoots but it gets deflected wide.
Shift Length: 0:51

10th Shift: Nothing noteworthy here
Shift Length: 0:37

11th Shift: A powerplay shift
Lilly looked great again.
Shift Length: 0:53

TOI: 7:26

5 on 5
Lilly clean exits: 1/2
Lilly supported clean exits: 2
Lilly Clean Entries:
Lilly supported clean entries: 1
Team stats
Stretch Passes: 1
Clean exits: 11/16

 

[Mr Hockey]

 

[Legion34]

Who plays the right side on the Marlies when Rosen is in?

Isn’t Rasmus/Rosen a pair?

 

[A1LeafNation]

Sandin Loverde
Rosen Liljegren
Borgman Hollowell

Who comes on for Rosen and Borgman?

Marincin? Subban? Oleksy? Durzak?

 

[Mr Hockey]

Who plays the right side on the Marlies when Rosen is in?

Isn’t Rasmus/Rosen a pair?

#7

 

[WillNy29]

I think there should be a tax jurisdiction modifier as well.

Itd be impossible to implement because no two players even on the same team have a similar tax situation at all

 

[WillNy29]

I took one class of statistics in university and never took another one again. Kudos.

One idea I heard before was allow a team like the nfl does to allow one star player to not count under the cap.

Adjusting the formula for cap hit by the tax district. Example kucherovs cap hit would actually be higher than it is.

The tax thing would not work because tax laws apply differently to every single player

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Who plays the right side on the Marlies when Rosen is in?

Isn’t Rasmus/Rosen a pair?

Nope. Marlies actually have more RD than LD right now.

Liljegren plays on the top pair with Rosen and Sandin has been playing with Hollowell. Borgman has been with Loverde.

With the injuries last game Sandin and Liljegren played heavy minutes with different partners.