2018-19 Avs Prediction Thread

[klozge]

The fine line is between here and @Balthazar's opinion. Even though I find Jets fans to be probably the most annoying fanbase of the Central, majority of them do have us in a playoff position. However, "good understanding" might be a tad too nice considering I've gone through a couple who think Makar will make our team from training camp.

I think they are the 2nd best fan group in the Central. I even think they quite similar to Avs fans. Annoying at times but often in a funny way, true fans of the sport and the home team and often enough honest or even pessimistic when it comes to the home team's strengths and weaknesses. Also, the most annoying fans in the Central cheer for the Hawks and for Dallas.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

There's no actual 2018/19 season talk thread so I figured I'd post this here.

Listened to the Chicklets podcast yesterday (legit hilarious podcast where you hear some great stories for those who don't listen) and Jost and Comeau were interviewed. Jost was saying how Mackinnon has him on the Andy O'Brien workout program. Jost joked about how last summer all he did was lift heavy and he showed up to camp bulky and built but it really affected his mobility. This year his workouts consist of light weight, high rep exercises using a lot of bands and **** which helps with flexibility and mobility to work more on leaning out then adding muscle.

So to all of us hoping Jost would bulk up this summer... not gonna happen. To those of us hoping Jost shows up to camp faster and quicker, that's probably gonna be a thing as long he's taking his workouts as serious as he seems to be.

I'd love for Jost to be stronger but in todays NHL it's more important to be quick than strong. Ideally you'd have both and over time I think he can accomplish it but in my opinion I think right now he's making the right decision on what approach he's taking into improving his game.

Agree with this 100%. More speed will not only help him separate himself from his opponents which was obvious last year, but could very well help him secure that #2C position.

 

[CobraAcesS]

There's no actual 2018/19 season talk thread so I figured I'd post this here.

Listened to the Chicklets podcast yesterday (legit hilarious podcast where you hear some great stories for those who don't listen) and Jost and Comeau were interviewed. Jost was saying how Mackinnon has him on the Andy O'Brien workout program. Jost joked about how last summer all he did was lift heavy and he showed up to camp bulky and built but it really affected his mobility. This year his workouts consist of light weight, high rep exercises using a lot of bands and **** which helps with flexibility and mobility to work more on leaning out then adding muscle.

So to all of us hoping Jost would bulk up this summer... not gonna happen. To those of us hoping Jost shows up to camp faster and quicker, that's probably gonna be a thing as long he's taking his workouts as serious as he seems to be.

I'd love for Jost to be stronger but in todays NHL it's more important to be quick than strong. Ideally you'd have both and over time I think he can accomplish it but in my opinion I think right now he's making the right decision on what approach he's taking into improving his game.

Jost needed to develop that Duchene strength. No better person to get him there than the guy who got Duchy there.

 

[Foppberg]

IMO Jost going with more of a speed and agility based workout vs bulking is a good thing, for now. He has to put on some more mass if he ever wants to be successful as a NHL center, but the league is all about speed now so going that route will be more beneficial for him.

Some guys just aren't the same when they add on a lot of muscle. MacKinnon himself one offseason really bulked up and admitted it was too much, same for Seguin IIRC.

As long as he ends up being a top 6 forward for us, whether that be a winger or center, I'm happy.

 

[Pokecheque]

Andy O'Brien emphasizes strengthening of the core for better balance and stability--there's a reason Crosby is insanely hard to knock off the puck for a guy his size. I think Duchene went through the same workout when he completely changed his game around the summer of 2012. If Jost can be like THAT it'd be great for both him and the Avs.

 

[McMetal]

MacK made the same mistake his sophomore year of putting on muscle at the expense of flexibility, it's nice that he's passing that on to Jost. Jost will never be a physical force, but if he can be just a bit faster and more agile it will help a ton with his offensive creativity that he showed at lower levels. Him becoming a more dynamic force would be big for that second line, either at C or W.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Jost showed up to camp at 195lbs last year and based on pictures there didn’t seem to be much fat on his body. He may not need to bulk up anymore than he already has.

You don’t reach muscle maturity until around 25. Jost has a few years of natural man strength yet to come. I’d say keep him on Andy’s program for as long as he plys.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

IMO Jost looked slow last year. Working on quickness is the right move.

 

[AvsMakar08]

IMO Jost looked slow last year. Working on quickness is the right move.

Jost was jumping like a frog on one of the summer workouts that I saw him. I have no doubts or concerns about Jost at all Mars.

 

[Patagonia]

IMO Jost looked slow last year. Working on quickness is the right move.

Jost last season seemed strong after he added muscle which hurt his mobility. He is working on quickness and hopefully his shot. If he player with steady Wingers, this would help as well. Not too concerned, he just turned 20 years old.

 

[MarkT]

Random predictions I expect will all be wrong:

• MacKinnon is less productive individually but Rantanen plays significantly better, so the top line overall is actually even better than last season.
• Compher emerges as a consistent middle 6 reliable player.
• Kerfoot's production falls off a cliff and nobody sees him as a long-term Avalanche player by the end of the season.
• Jost has an inconsistent year where he shows flashes of being great but goes through invisible stretches too.
• Colin Wilson shocks the world by nearly tripling his point totals from last season.
• Ghetto earns a raise on his current salary and a 3-4 year contract.
• By the end of the season it is very clear who on the team belongs in the top 6 long-term and who does not.
• Barrie has an even better season offensively.
• EJ suffers no major injuries and starts getting recognition league wide as a top defender.
• Girard ends up as a healthy scratch at times due to poor play.
• Zadorov is our best defender for long stretches of the season.
• Varlamov outplays Grubauer.
  
• The Avs make the playoffs along with St. Louis, Arizona and Edmonton (Anaheim, LA, and Minnesota are out).

 

[Brett44]

Random predictions I expect will all be wrong:

• MacKinnon is less productive individually but Rantanen plays significantly better, so the top line overall is actually even better than last season.
• Compher emerges as a consistent middle 6 reliable player.
• Kerfoot's production falls off a cliff and nobody sees him as a long-term Avalanche player by the end of the season.
• Jost has an inconsistent year where he shows flashes of being great but goes through invisible stretches too.
• Colin Wilson shocks the world by nearly tripling his point totals from last season.
• Ghetto earns a raise on his current salary and a 3-4 year contract.
• By the end of the season it is very clear who on the team belongs in the top 6 long-term and who does not.
• Barrie has an even better season offensively.
• EJ suffers no major injuries and starts getting recognition league wide as a top defender.
• Girard ends up as a healthy scratch at times due to poor play.
• Zadorov is our best defender for long stretches of the season.
• Varlamov outplays Grubauer.
  
• The Avs make the playoffs along with St. Louis, Arizona and Edmonton (Anaheim, LA, and Minnesota are out).

I disagree with Girard comment.

 

[Balthazar]

Girard ends up as a healthy scratch at times due to poor play.

That's some weird prediction right there.

 

[Sea Eagles]

My simple new prediction: Top 10 in the NHL.

 

[Balthazar]

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

I wouldn't be surprised if it was a slower start to the year for Girard. Teams have a year of tape on him and they'll make adjustments. I'm sure he'll be fine, but development isn't always linear.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I wouldn't be surprised if it was a slower start to the year for Girard. Teams have a year of tape on him and they'll make adjustments. I'm sure he'll be fine, but development isn't always linear.

They had a very long time to try to shut down the G-spin. He also cleaned up his lackadaisical puck recovery too. I'm not really sure how much there is for them to game plan him. Especially when you see guys chase him down behind the net and he continuously loses them with ease. He doesn't panic when teams pressure him the way Barrie does at times either.

I believe in that stuff when the sample size is 20 or 30 games at the end of a year. Not when a player has put in a full season. People are making that same comment regarding the Avs surprising people now too, and I don't think it applies either.

 

[Balthazar]

They had a very long time to try to shut down the G-spin. He also cleaned up his lackadaisical puck recovery too. I'm not really sure how much there is for them to game plan him.

Yeah..this was the last game of the season:



I mean what are they going to do differently? It's not like there's a simple answer to that other than not chasing the puck at all.

 

[henchman21]

I mean what are they going to do differently? It's not like there's a simple answer to that other than not chasing the puck at all.

Do what Nashville did... take the body hard, every. single. time. Don't worry about the puck at all, just hit the man.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Do what Nashville did... take the body hard, every. single. time. Don't worry about the puck at all, just hit the man.

How Girard played against Nashville is a feather in his cap, and not even remotely a warning sign.

 

[Balthazar]

Do what Nashville did... take the body hard, every. single. time. Don't worry about the puck at all, just hit the man.

If you look closely that's exactly what Schenn tried to do on that gif. He played the body but Girard was no longer where he was supposed to be. To hit the man you have to catch the man first.

As for the playoffs he missed 3 games and played the other 3 injured.

 

[henchman21]

If you look closely that's exactly what Schenn tried to do on that gif. He played the body but Girard was no longer where he was supposed to be. To hit the man you have to catch the man first.

As for the playoffs he missed 3 games and played the other 3 injured.

Nashville playing the body is what got him injured... it isn't going to happen every time, but pushing for it and worrying less about the puck and more about hitting Girard will be the playbook on him. Whether or not it works and/or how Girard adjusts will be a big part of his success this season. There are signs on both sides to show that he will be fine and others to show he might have some durability concerns with it or might get a touch gun shy. I'm not worried about him long-term, but that is how teams are going to attempt to play him.

 

[McMetal]

Girard is too nimble of a skater to be caught that often. Unless he makes a mistake, 99% of forecheckers are going to hit air on plays like that, and he will make fewer mistakes as he gets more experience.

 

[henchman21]

Girard is too nimble of a skater to be caught that often. Unless he makes a mistake, 99% of forecheckers are going to hit air on plays like that, and he will make fewer mistakes as he gets more experience.

Nashville really proved that wrong... Girard will avoid a lot, but he can be hit and teams are going to push that a lot going forward. How Girard adjusts, reacts, and how durable he is will determine a lot. I think he will be fine long-term in this area, but he very easily could have some hiccups there.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Nashville really proved that wrong... Girard will avoid a lot, but he can be hit and teams are going to push that a lot going forward. How Girard adjusts, reacts, and how durable he is will determine a lot. I think he will be fine long-term in this area, but he very easily could have some hiccups there.

You're not wrong. I just dont think it's going to translate into some sort of slow start IMO.

I'm not saying you're wrong for pointing out the possibility either.

If I had to pick something for him to fail at it would be a big offensive breakout. That's more due to opportunity though, and the questionmarks regarding our scoring depth and the second unit pp.