2018-19 Avs Prediction Thread

[henchman21]

You're not wrong. I just dont think it's going to translate into some sort of slow start IMO.

I'm not saying you're wrong for pointing out the possibility either.

If I had to pick something for him to fail at it would be a big offensive breakout. That's more due to opportunity though, and the questionmarks regarding our scoring depth and the second unit pp.

I could see it causing a slow start (at least relatively). If teams can execute that it might take him a bit to adjust and find new ways to create space. Also possible he won't have a single issue... I personally think he will be fine from the get go, but I fully accept the idea that something like that could happen. The tape is out there for teams... up to them to execute it.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I could see it causing a slow start (at least relatively). If teams can execute that it might take him a bit to adjust and find new ways to create space. Also possible he won't have a single issue... I personally think he will be fine from the get go, but I fully accept the idea that something like that could happen. The tape is out there for teams... up to them to execute it.

I dont think there is that many teams who can. Especially in our building where Bednar can control the matchups, and Girard will probably still be fairly sheltered as probably the 5th D on the depth chart. Fair enough question though to reiterate.

 

[MarkT]

I seem to have started something with my prediction. I'm not predicting other teams will figure out how to shit Girard down, I'm predicting he will struggle enough at some point to deserve being a healthy scratch - that might be due to getting injured and not fully recovering, poor decisions with or without the puck, overall poor play, or even yes teams strategizing against him. Basically, I always expect young D to struggle early in their career and I'm predicting Girard will struggle at times this season.

 

[Foppa2118]

Almost every player in history has been notably easier to hit in their rookie year, than they were at any time after. I don't know how well G will adjust in this regard, but I think it's a mistake to read too much into Nashville being able to hit him last year. Especially given it was his first NHL playoff experience to boot.

It's not like Nashville found some secret antidote nobody else knew about and decided to just hit Girard, and not worry about the puck. Plenty of other players tried this same approach during the regular season, they just couldn't get close enough to finish their check. The playoffs are just a different animal in terms of physicality, and he was a rookie 19 year old.

 

[Foppberg]

I'm not worried about Girard. I think he's a very special kid, to play in the NHL at his size and thrive the deeper into the season we got is not something many can do. And only being 19? f*** me.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Just did a prediction on point scorers this season. Flame away

All predictions are made on 82 games played.

Mackinnon: 36-50-86
Rantanen: 36-42-78
Barrie: 11-49-61
Landeskog: 25-30-55
Soderberg: 14-30-44
Jost: 15-25-40
Kerfoot: 10-25-35
Andrighetto:16-16-34
Girard: 7-28-34
Zadorov- 9-22-31
Compher: 15-15-30
Johnson: 6-20-26
Nieto: 13-10-23
Calvert: 10-13-23

 

[KingSizeKirby]

Ok here goes.

Points:
Mack - 90+
Rantanen - 75+
Landy - 60+
Barrie - 55+
Jost - 45+
Kerfoot - 40
Girard - 35+
EJ - 35+
Zads - 25+
Timmins - 20

Thoughts:
- Ian Cole plays well and looks like a #4 D
- Timmins makes the team and gets better through out the year
- Kamenev plays all year but never looks more then a 3/4 liner
- Avs make the playoffs as the 1st wildcard but lose in 1st round
- OTT’s pick ends up #2
- Varly stays relatively healthy, but plays a pretty even split with Grubauer
- Grubauer proves to be a #1
- EJ plays 72+ games
- Mack is a Hart nominee
- Avs sign Seguin to a 7 year 11.5M deal on July 1st leading to many years of contention

Ended up pretty positive, but who wants to make negative predictions.

 

[duckbear]

Ended up pretty positive, but who wants to make negative predictions.

-MacK has another dominating year, putting up 90 points.
-Rantanen improves as a complete player, but decreases his scoring drops - 'only' scores 30g 30a
-Landeskog is separated from the top line for half the season and scores 25g 35a
-Soderberg ends up the #2C for most of the season.
-Jost improves the most on the team but the improvement happens slowly over the course of the season.
-Andrighetto and Kerfoot fail to take steps forward. They join Soderberg and Jost all ending around 40pts.
-Compher and Kamenev look ok in 4th line roles but don't really threaten to move up the depth chart
-The offense is incredibly

-EJ, Barrie both play most of the season and look solid
-Zadorov ends up with a similar season as last year but looks like his development is done
-Girard develops smoothly playing mostly in a #5 role.
-Cole becomes a popular addition to the team and solidifies the defense
-We finally have a NHL quality defense!

-Varly and Grub provide great goaltending for all 82 games

-The team overall plays mediocre/good for most of the season

-We miss the postseason due to lack of secondary scoring and finish 9th or 10th in the conference.
-Ottawa surprises everyone and finishes around the same in the East

I have to say, after writing this I feel more optimistic than when I started writing it! We should have good goaltending, a solid defense, and while our secondary scoring isn't looking great (barring major leaps or a surprise prospect making a major impact) the fact that there are so many players who could potentially make the leap into a middle six NHLer (Jost, Ghetto, Kerfoot, Kamenev, Bowers, Kaut, etc) is exciting since we aren't relying on 1 specific guy making the jump.

 

[agentblack]

We really need EJ to be healthy, like its on my "musts" list.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Just did a prediction on point scorers this season. Flame away

All predictions are made on 82 games played.

Mackinnon: 36-50-86
Rantanen: 36-42-78
Barrie: 11-49-61
Landeskog: 25-30-55
Soderberg: 14-30-44
Jost: 15-25-40
Kerfoot: 10-25-35
Andrighetto:16-16-34
Girard: 7-28-34
Zadorov- 9-22-31
Compher: 15-15-30
Johnson: 6-20-26
Nieto: 13-10-23
Calvert: 10-13-23

I'll do one also, always enjoy doing these before the season


Mackinnon: 44 + 61 = 105(Yeah, I expect him to be even better next year)
Rantanen: 33 + 54 = 87
Landeskog: 27 + 36 = 63
Barrie: 13 + 42 = 55
Jost : 17 + 25 = 42
Soderberg: 11 + 26 = 37
Wilson: 17 + 19 = 36
Andrighetto: 14 + 21 = 35
Girard: 8 + 25 = 33
Kerfoot: 11 + 19 = 30
Compher: 14+ 16 = 30
Johnson: 7 + 21 = 28
Zadorov: 10 + 12 = 22
Nieto: 9 + 10 = 19
Calvert: 11 + 7 = 18

 

[The Abusement Park]

I'll do one also, always enjoy doing these before the season


Mackinnon: 44 + 61 = 105(Yeah, I expect him to be even better next year)
Rantanen: 33 + 54 = 87
Landeskog: 27 + 36 = 63
Barrie: 13 + 42 = 55
Jost : 17 + 25 = 42
Soderberg: 11 + 26 = 37
Wilson: 17 + 19 = 36
Andrighetto: 14 + 21 = 35
Girard: 8 + 25 = 33
Kerfoot: 11 + 19 = 30
Compher: 14+ 16 = 30
Johnson: 7 + 21 = 28
Zadorov: 10 + 12 = 22
Nieto: 9 + 10 = 19
Calvert: 11 + 7 = 18

I hope you’re right on Mack. I can’t picture him being better than last year, mainly because that was such a high bar he set. But here’s to hoping

 

[CobraAcesS]

Just did a prediction on point scorers this season. Flame away

All predictions are made on 82 games played.

Mackinnon: 36-50-86
Rantanen: 36-42-78
Barrie: 11-49-61
Landeskog: 25-30-55
Soderberg: 14-30-44
Jost: 15-25-40
Kerfoot: 10-25-35
Andrighetto:16-16-34
Girard: 7-28-34
Zadorov- 9-22-31
Compher: 15-15-30
Johnson: 6-20-26
Nieto: 13-10-23
Calvert: 10-13-23

I'd actually almost call you pessimistic outside of maybe Girard and Z lol. We'll go with conservative?

For my self I try to stay out of the prediction game for the most part. I'm usually wrong, and don't want to jinx anyone. I've even been hard on Mack over the years, but hoping it might work as a reverse jinx. Kerfoot and Jost are my targets for skepticism this year lol.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I'd actually almost call you pessimistic outside of maybe Girard and Z lol.

For my self I try to stay out of the prediction game for the most part. I'm usually wrong, and don't want to jinx anyone. I've even been hard on Mack over the years, but hoping it might work as a reverse jinx. Kerfoot and Jost are my targets for skepticism this year lol.

Yeah it’s hard to do. I hope to god Mack does what he did last year but man would that be hard to repeat. I have Landy around his average and Barrie at 60 pts so I wouldn’t call that to pessimistic. I’d say minus Mack and rants regressing that would be good years from most people.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Yeah it’s hard to do. I hope to god Mack does what he did last year but man would that be hard to repeat. I have Landy around his average and Barrie at 60 pts so I wouldn’t call that to pessimistic. I’d say minus Mack and rants regressing that would be good years from most people.

Yeah I guess that's true I suppose on the whole. I think Compher and Ghetto have potential for more. EJ just seems really low, but he isn't getting PP time anymore.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Yeah I guess that's true I suppose on the whole. I think Compher and Ghetto have potential for more. EJ just seems really low, but he isn't getting PP time anymore.

Yeah EJ was lower because of PP reasons. I just don’t think he’ll get basically any time if the PP this season.

 

[McMetal]

- MacKinnon breaks 100 points, last year was no fluke. Rantanen breaks 90 alongside him.

- Jost establishes himself as a second line player, but has a revolving cast of wingers. Compher, Kerfoot, Kamenev, Andrighetto, and Nieto all spend time on the 2nd line but none of them quite do well enough to provide a true secondary scoring option.

- Kaut gets a 9 game tryout in the middle of the season as injuries hit, earns 2 points, but ultimately stays in the minors until next season.

- Avs make the playoffs, Minnesota does not. Age on their core and a rocky start to the season ultimately end with them on the outs in the very last week of the season. Once again, MacKinnon carries the team to a playoff spot on his back.

- Makar signs for the playoff push, plays respectably well on a middle pair level to start, but nothing earth shattering. Bowers signs for the playoffs, but doesn't get much playing time.

 

[Goulet17]

Fantasy forward point projections for 2018-19

NHL.com fantasy projections -

MacKinnon - 90 points
Rantanen - 75 points
Landeskog - 64 points
Kerfoot - 45 points
Jost - 45 points

Predicting a bit of a fall back for the MacKinnon-Rantanen- Landeskog line or trio, which seems reasonable to me under the circumstances.

Only Kerfoot and Jost listed after them as the cutoff is 45 points. If both Kerfoot and Jost reach 45 points in secondary scoring roles, the Avs have likely had a good season by my estimation.

 

[Foppberg]

It's amazing how this time last season we were saying a 60+ season from MacKinnon is good, but now it's 'only PPG? Pft.'

 

[Iracundia]

-Avs score > 255 goals and finish top 10 in NHL scoring

Landy - Mack - Rants line stays together and finishes top 3 scoring line in the league

Jost - Kerfoot - Andro line all have career years in pts

EJs role on the team changes this season and he is tasked to being the DD on the pairing while Girard takes the PMD role on it

Bednar rolls with

Zadorov - Barrie
Girard - EJ

Varly/Grubauer together provide the best goaltending we've had years. We learn that the elixir to having a healthy and productive Varly is to play a competent backup more often.

The only negative (which is a positive longterm) is that EJ gets injured longterm and we find out that our future looks good with Meloche/Timmins.

If we have similar health to what we had last year then we make the Playoffs again

 

[McMetal]

This thread is always fun to dig up and read through at season's end. How did everybody do?