2017 reDraft as per HFBoards

[93LEAFS]

Even aside from the nhl games he played at a 100 point pace last year junior. Still makes no sense for him to have fallen. Let alone 8 spots.

He played at basically the pace he played the year before (5 point difference, less goals) and had a sub-par WJC when he was expected to be a key contributor. He also wasn't ranked as high as the Oilers took him by some people. Look, I could see him slightly higher or where he currently is. He hasn't really done anything to dramatically change how you viewed him at the draft, and some people thought he was a late first or even an early 2nd at the time.

 

[MessierII]

He played at basically the pace he played the year before (5 point difference, less goals) and had a sub-par WJC when he was expected to be a key contributor. He also wasn't ranked as high as the Oilers took him by some people. Look, I could see him slightly higher or where he currently is. He hasn't really done anything to dramatically change how you viewed him at the draft, and some people thought he was a late first or even an early 2nd at the time.

He was only ever viewed that way due to his size. His production in junior was pretty elite.

 

[tgo0]

A lot of people are complaining their teams prospect “fell”. While sometimes that’s due to a (perceived) regression, at this early evaluation stage a lot of it has to do with other prospects rising.

Doesn’t mean because someone got moved down a couple spots that people have soured on them, just potentially guys originally picked below them have done exceedingly well.

All just for laughs. In 3 years this list probably looks ridiculous anyways.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Liljegren has done nothing but impress and show the potential regarded before the draft yet he falls.

Remember where we are Cor

 

[M2Beezy]

A lot of people are complaining their teams prospect “fell”. While sometimes that’s due to a (perceived) regression, at this early evaluation stage a lot of it has to do with other prospects rising.

Doesn’t mean because someone got moved down a couple spots that people have soured on them, just potentially guys originally picked below them have done exceedingly well.

All just for laughs. In 3 years this list probably looks ridiculous anyways.

This post hits the nail on the head. A guy like Vaakanainen hasnt done a thing to fall, infact when he has played he looked good. Good, but not great. And of course some guys drafted after him have raised their stock a LOT. Means he will fall a couple a places tho hasnt really not progressed or anything

And like ya said, this list will look VERY different, probably even by 365 days from now

 

[Pavels Dog]

Liljegren has done nothing but impress and show the potential regarded before the draft yet he falls.

29 points in 82 AHL games isn't super impressive. High-end prospects are supposed to fairly quickly start dominating AHL or move into the NHL.
Many other prospects are doing more impressive things.

 

[Cor]

29 points in 82 AHL games isn't super impressive. High-end prospects are supposed to fairly quickly start dominating AHL or move into the NHL.
Many other prospects are doing more impressive things.

Liljegren is on pace for 29-34 points this season (depending on how many games he ends up playing and if he goes to the WJC), which would put him roughly top 5 among 19 year old d-men in the AHL all-time. Last season he posted the 2nd highest point totals by an 18 year old d-man in the AHL all-time. His possession numbers are fantastic, and he's showing a lot more defensive ability than even leaf fans saw in him.

But yeah, not super impressive or anything.

 

[HanSolo]

Liljegren is on pace for 29-34 points this season (depending on how many games he ends up playing and if he goes to the WJC), which would put him roughly top 5 among 19 year old d-men in the AHL all-time. Last season he posted the 2nd highest point totals by an 18 year old d-man in the AHL all-time. His possession numbers are fantastic, and he's showing a lot more defensive ability than even leaf fans saw in him.

But yeah, not super impressive or anything.

OK, I just checked the numbers, Brannstrom is on pace for 52 points, where would that put him in this niche all time ranking of 19 year olds?

 

[Pavels Dog]

Liljegren is on pace for 29-34 points this season (depending on how many games he ends up playing and if he goes to the WJC), which would put him roughly top 5 among 19 year old d-men in the AHL all-time. Last season he posted the 2nd highest point totals by an 18 year old d-man in the AHL all-time. His possession numbers are fantastic, and he's showing a lot more defensive ability than even leaf fans saw in him.

But yeah, not super impressive or anything.

That's the type of stats that completely lack context. For historical AHL comparisons, PPG is way more important than raw point totals unless you want to conveniently ignore all the young D that are too good to ever spend much time in the AHL.

Liljegren's current PPG is good for 80th all-time. Even ignoring those with <5GP, Liljegren doesn't crack the top 40. And even that is ignoring how the truly great D prospects usually bypass the AHL completely. For example Jokiharju has basically the same PPG in the NHL as Liljegren in the AHL. Brannstrom's PPG is much better than Liljegren, maybe Liljegren ends up with a higher point total but that's probably because Brannstrom gets moved up to the NHL.

 

[zharkenby]

Hichier over Heiskanen? What is this? Heiskanen is the the most promising defenceman for years (with Dahlin) he should ne number one or two because Pettersson is awesome too.

If I’m NJ I’m taking hischier over heiskanen 100/100 Times. Man some of you are clueless

 

[Cor]

OK, I just checked the numbers, Brannstrom is on pace for 52 points, where would that put him in this niche all time ranking of 19 year olds?

Brannstrom would be a top the list. Which isn't surprising, he's a great prospect. I'm not sure what the point is there. I never stated that Liljegren should be higher than him, correct?

Connor Timmins who hasn't played this year and only played 36 games last season. Jusso Valimaki who had an alright season in a junior league last year, and has little production, poor analytics despite being extremely sheltered in the NHL this season.

Yet Valimaki is high than both Brannstrom and Liljegren, and Timmins is higher than Liljegren.


The issue with a poll like this is there is so many variables. Do we value a player playing some games in the NHL this season, but limited production (Valimaki) over a player playing in say the AHL, but has great numbers (Lilly and Brannstrom)? Does that not automatically give the edge to prospects who were drafted by poor teams, and not looking at the specific players themselves?

Like Cale Makar who looks phenomenal is behind Nolan Patrick who hasn't produced much at the AHL.

Jokiharju (a player I really like) jumped up 29 spots because of 23 games.

But then you have a Drake Batherson who jumped 100 draft spots, but is still behind guys like Rasmussen, Frost and Suzuki.


This ranking is just all over the place, and that's the difficulty with numbered rankings. Doing something like this in a tier system might work better.

 

[Cor]

That's the type of stats that completely lack context. For historical AHL comparisons, PPG is way more important than raw point totals unless you want to conveniently ignore all the young D that are too good to ever spend much time in the AHL.

Liljegren's current PPG is good for 80th all-time. Even ignoring those with <5GP, Liljegren doesn't crack the top 40. And even that is ignoring how the truly great D prospects usually bypass the AHL completely. For example Jokiharju has basically the same PPG in the NHL as Liljegren in the AHL. Brannstrom's PPG is much better than Liljegren, maybe Liljegren ends up with a higher point total but that's probably because Brannstrom gets moved up to the NHL.

Sure, we can look at PPG.

18 year old season: 1st all-time among d-men who played 15+ games.
19 year old season: Current PPG would rank 9th all-time among players who played 20+ games (10th actually, Brannstrom is higher. the 20+ game requirement is set out by my source [QuantHockey])

Liljegren is doing great compared to other players his age who has played in the AHL. It's ridiculous to try and discredit him

 

[Mikeaveli]

Liljegren has done nothing but impress and show the potential regarded before the draft yet he falls.

The same thing seems to have happened with Cal Foote. Ironically they went back to back in the redraft lol

 

[HanSolo]

Brannstrom would be a top the list. Which isn't surprising, he's a great prospect. I'm not sure what the point is there. I never stated that Liljegren should be higher than him, correct?

Connor Timmins who hasn't played this year and only played 36 games last season. Jusso Valimaki who had an alright season in a junior league last year, and has little production, poor analytics despite being extremely sheltered in the NHL this season.

Yet Valimaki is high than both Brannstrom and Liljegren, and Timmins is higher than Liljegren.


The issue with a poll like this is there is so many variables. Do we value a player playing some games in the NHL this season, but limited production (Valimaki) over a player playing in say the AHL, but has great numbers (Lilly and Brannstrom)? Does that not automatically give the edge to prospects who were drafted by poor teams, and not looking at the specific players themselves?

Like Cale Makar who looks phenomenal is behind Nolan Patrick who hasn't produced much at the AHL.

Jokiharju (a player I really like) jumped up 29 spots because of 23 games.

But then you have a Drake Batherson who jumped 100 draft spots, but is still behind guys like Rasmussen, Frost and Suzuki.


This ranking is just all over the place, and that's the difficulty with numbered rankings. Doing something like this in a tier system might work better.

I think my point is a little...I don't want to say nuanced because that gives the impression that I think I'm some deep individual, but I agree with the scope of your point and that was kind of my point.

At it's core it translates to "well by your logic, Brannstrom shouldn't have leveled at his same draft ranking"

But the issues with this ranking here are

1.) Way too early, still a lot of players that haven't had the opportunity to crack the bigs while others were prematurely rushed. I mean taking another Vegas player, Cody Glass, there was no way he was gonna make Vegas when they couldn't even figure out what to do with Erik Haula after the Stastny signing. And now he's absolutely scorching the WHL. While, as a Vegas fan that excites me, it's really tough to gauge how much that means to his outlook as a future 2 or 1c. People see his 2.2 or so PP/G average and still regard him very highly, but come 3 years from now he could be better or worse than his peers. As for Lily, most people don't watch the AHL. As much as I'd like to, I don't watch the San Diego Gulls or Chicago Wolves to keep tabs. Most people will see a guy, touted as an OFD, with seemingly pedestrian numbers and they don't get very excited. I mean, Hague missed the top 31 for basically the same reason. Went from 78 points in the OHL as a defenseman to, well, lower, and he stayed outside the top 31 again even though his pedigree is a first round talent.

2.) Recency and team based bias, short attention spans. I don't need to describe this.

3.) An important one, and keep in mind this is an objective observation of hockey fandom psychology: Toronto is a fanbase that gets very excited about every prospect. Like, more so than any other fanbase. To me it almost feels like a lot of fans struggle to get excited for Leafs prospects because your fanbase puts out enough enthusiasm for the rest of us. Nothing wrong with passion or anything, but it might explain the lack of people rushing to vote for Lily more than defaulting to "everyone hates the Leafs"

I know I don't hate Toronto, but I certainly don't get as intrigued by their prospects by default. Even Matthews, who I was excited for, it felt like a muted excitement.

 

[M2Beezy]

The same thing seems to have happened with Cal Foote. Ironically they went back to back in the redraft lol

Yeah Id love Foote on the Nucks and wish there was a way we could sell a rental to Tampa to get him. Not sure how possible that is unfortunately

 

[Pavels Dog]

Sure, we can look at PPG.

18 year old season: 1st all-time among d-men who played 15+ games.
19 year old season: Current PPG would rank 9th all-time among players who played 20+ games

Liljegren is doing great compared to other players his age who has played in the AHL.

So you're cherrypicking 20+ games when Liljegren himself hasn't even played 20+ games yet?

That conveniently ignores players like

Shea Theodore (11 points in 9 games)
Erik Karlsson (11 points in 12 games)
Erik Brannstrom (13 points in 18 games) - same number of games as Lilly
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (10 points in 15 games)
Dimitri Orlov (9 points in 19 games)

 

[Cor]

So you're cherrypicking 20+ games when Liljegren himself hasn't even played 20+ games yet?

That conveniently ignores players like

Shea Theodore (11 points in 9 games)
Erik Karlsson (11 points in 12 games)
Erik Brannstrom (13 points in 18 games) - same number of games as Lilly
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (10 points in 15 games)
Dimitri Orlov (9 points in 19 games)

Did the delete the edited part I put in like 2 minutes after I posted on purpose?

Because I said it wasn’t me choosing 20+ but rather the source I was using. And I also included Brannstrom

I don’t necessarily believe anything less than 15 games is worth looking at anyway. Even then that’s a small sample size.

But none-the-less, whether he’s 10, or 15, he’s still among extremely good company and he’s playing extremely well.

Trying to argue that makes you look silly

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Comparing AHL numbers 0f 18 and 19 year olds and deriving conclusions from them is stupid, because almost no players who are 18 or 19 play full seasons in the AHL and the sample size is therefore tiny.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

I’m just glad people are leaving Jokiharju alone for the most part. It’s no surprise since he’s honestly been the most consistent defenseman on the Hawks.

For anyone not watching hawks games, the first 15 he was paired with Keith and they looked really solid together. The moment he got taken off that pairing, it wasn’t Jokiharju who fell apart, it was Keith.

Hopefully they get put back together soon, but this guy has had such a good impact on the team, and it’s nice that people are starting to recognize that.

 

[Syckle78]

You could just throw any prospect in the NHL and people would claim he's better than Foote, Andersson, Liljegren, Tippett etc just because he's played games and the listed players haven't. Like seriously, Tolvanen has done jack **** in the league and he all of a sudden rises that much? Mittlstadt will likely be passed by a lot of prospects soon though. Same with Rasmussen, Viliardi.

Salty leaf fan is salty.

 

[M2Beezy]

I’m just glad people are leaving Jokiharju alone for the most part. It’s no surprise since he’s honestly been the most consistent defenseman on the Hawks.

For anyone not watching hawks games, the first 15 he was paired with Keith and they looked really solid together. The moment he got taken off that pairing, it wasn’t Jokiharju who fell apart, it was Keith.

Hopefully they get put back together soon, but this guy has had such a good impact on the team, and it’s nice that people are starting to recognize that.

Super jelly, we got Hughes coming up but getting Jokijarazu that deep in a draft is one of the biggest steals

 

[Cor]

I think my point is a little...I don't want to say nuanced because that gives the impression that I think I'm some deep individual, but I agree with the scope of your point and that was kind of my point.

At it's core it translates to "well by your logic, Brannstrom shouldn't have leveled at his same draft ranking"

But the issues with this ranking here are

1.) Way too early, still a lot of players that haven't had the opportunity to crack the bigs while others were prematurely rushed. I mean taking another Vegas player, Cody Glass, there was no way he was gonna make Vegas when they couldn't even figure out what to do with Erik Haula after the Stastny signing. And now he's absolutely scorching the WHL. While, as a Vegas fan that excites me, it's really tough to gauge how much that means to his outlook as a future 2 or 1c. People see his 2.2 or so PP/G average and still regard him very highly, but come 3 years from now he could be better or worse than his peers. As for Lily, most people don't watch the AHL. As much as I'd like to, I don't watch the San Diego Gulls or Chicago Wolves to keep tabs. Most people will see a guy, touted as an OFD, with seemingly pedestrian numbers and they don't get very excited. I mean, Hague missed the top 31 for basically the same reason. Went from 78 points in the OHL as a defenseman to, well, lower, and he stayed outside the top 31 again even though his pedigree is a first round talent.

2.) Recency and team based bias, short attention spans. I don't need to describe this.

3.) An important one, and keep in mind this is an objective observation of hockey fandom psychology: Toronto is a fanbase that gets very excited about every prospect. Like, more so than any other fanbase. To me it almost feels like a lot of fans struggle to get excited for Leafs prospects because your fanbase puts out enough enthusiasm for the rest of us. Nothing wrong with passion or anything, but it might explain the lack of people rushing to vote for Lily more than defaulting to "everyone hates the Leafs"

I know I don't hate Toronto, but I certainly don't get as intrigued by their prospects by default. Even Matthews, who I was excited for, it felt like a muted excitement.

I give you props for this post. Well written, explained your thoughts in a well mannered way.

That said, I don't necessarily agree with "this teams fans are excited, so I need to downplay the player/prospect/team". And what I mean, is that I 100% agree it's a thing, but the concept is wrong.

The Leafs have the biggest fanbase, so it's natural that this website has a lot of leaf fans on it, meaning theirs more hype about their good prospects. I would also disagree that Leaf fans get excited over all of their prospects. I doubt there's anyone excited right now about Kizimov or O'Connell.

However, despite being a Leaf fan, I try and look at things, especially pertaining to other teams, as unbiased as I can. For example, if a teams prospect, player or whatever does something awesome, I enjoy that as a hockey fan. I don't try and downplay it because their fans are also excited.

Like, the 'Laine's Better' stuff. That got plastered all over this site leading up to the draft and even after it, because it was known the Leafs were picking Matthews, and some didn't like the Leafs were getting an elite star. Like it was posted so much, it's now a meme. Yet, that's Leaf fans fault?

Now, are Leaf fans victims? God no. There are a lot of bad ones, both on the main boards, and on the Leaf boards themselves, but there's still 80-90% of the Leaf fans posters here that know what they are talking about and have good opinions, yet that's all ignored.

I dunno, but at some point this Leaf fans vs Main Boards crap has gotta stop purely on the basis of board quality.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Did the delete the edited part I put in like 2 minutes after I posted on purpose?

Because I said it wasn’t me choosing 20+ but rather the source I was using. And I also included Brannstrom

I don’t necessarily believe anything less than 15 games is worth looking at anyway. Even then that’s a small sample size.

But none-the-less, whether he’s 10, or 15, he’s still among extremely good company and he’s playing extremely well.

Trying to argue that makes you look silly

The reason you have to look at a small sample size of GP is because the AHL is a stepping stone to the NHL. The guys that dominate the AHL don't stay there for long. That's on top of the fact that's it's unusual to begin with that 18-19 year old D go the AHL route.
By limiting to only U19/U20 players AND putting a GP restriction, you wind up with a guy being labeled as one of the best all-time despite scoring 1 goal in 64 games.

 

[HanSolo]

I give you props for this post. Well written, explained your thoughts in a well mannered way.

That said, I don't necessarily agree with "this teams fans are excited, so I need to downplay the player/prospect/team". And what I mean, is that I 100% agree it's a thing, but the concept is wrong.

The Leafs have the biggest fanbase, so it's natural that this website has a lot of leaf fans on it, meaning theirs more hype about their good prospects. I would also disagree that Leaf fans get excited over all of their prospects. I doubt there's anyone excited right now about Kizimov or O'Connell.

However, despite being a Leaf fan, I try and look at things, especially pertaining to other teams, as unbiased as I can. For example, if a teams prospect, player or whatever does something awesome, I enjoy that as a hockey fan. I don't try and downplay it because their fans are also excited.

Like, the 'Laine's Better' stuff. That got plastered all over this site leading up to the draft and even after it, because it was known the Leafs were picking Matthews, and some didn't like the Leafs were getting an elite star. Like it was posted so much, it's now a meme. Yet, that's Leaf fans fault?

Now, are Leaf fans victims? God no. There are a lot of bad ones, both on the main boards, and on the Leaf boards themselves, but there's still 80-90% of the Leaf fans posters here that know what they are talking about and have good opinions, yet that's all ignored.

I dunno, but at some point this Leaf fans vs Main Boards crap has gotta stop purely on the basis of board quality.

My point wasn't strictly that people respond to the enthusiasm by putting Leafs prospects/young players down (even though there are plenty that do, don't get me wrong). Just that it can be hard to get excited for them. For example, I'm really big on Sebastien Aho, I think he's a really exciting and fun to watch young guy, despite the fact that I don't really care about Carolina. He's been getting more hype since he's started proving himself, but his name still isn't blasted around constantly. Being on the HF main board, it's damn near impossible to escape the names Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Andersen, Tavares, etc.

When you have so many voices telling you to appreciate a player's talent and to be excited for their contributions to the game of hockey, it can get hard to feel organic excitement for a player. And to others it can get so annoying that they will overscrutinize and look for flaws to attempt to take the hype "down a peg"

On one hand it goes to the passion and dedication to the game and the team that there's such over-exuberance. Hell it was there even when Toronto was in the most dire of circumstances. But I think it's worth understanding that as a community we represent a small fraction of hockey fandom. By and large, we are crammed into a very small echo chamber. When you listen to the same voices saying the same thing the same way more than you hear anything else, it wears on people. It's not exactly something you can control, but it would certainly explain why no one took a more critical look at Liljegren.

Again, this poll was done far too soon. Rielly took a long time to prove his dominance. Even if Lily can be as good as many of your fans have predicted, it will take some time for people to accept that. I think most people acknowledge Tavares, Matthews, Rielly, Andersen, Marner, etc. for the talented players they are at some level.

 

[M2Beezy]

My point wasn't strictly that people respond to the enthusiasm by putting Leafs prospects/young players down (even though there are plenty that do, don't get me wrong). Just that it can be hard to get excited for them. For example, I'm really big on Sebastien Aho, I think he's a really exciting and fun to watch young guy, despite the fact that I don't really care about Carolina. He's been getting more hype since he's started proving himself, but his name still isn't blasted around constantly. Being on the HF main board, it's damn near impossible to escape the names Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Andersen, Tavares, etc.

When you have so many voices telling you to appreciate a player's talent and to be excited for their contributions to the game of hockey, it can get hard to feel organic excitement for a player. And to others it can get so annoying that they will overscrutinize and look for flaws to attempt to take the hype "down a peg"

On one hand it goes to the passion and dedication to the game and the team that there's such over-exuberance. Hell it was there even when Toronto was in the most dire of circumstances. But I think it's worth understanding that as a community we represent a small fraction of hockey fandom. By and large, we are crammed into a very small echo chamber. When you listen to the same voices saying the same thing the same way more than you hear anything else, it wears on people. It's not exactly something you can control, but it would certainly explain why no one took a more critical look at Liljegren.

Again, this poll was done far too soon. Rielly took a long time to prove his dominance. Even if Lily can be as good as many of your fans have predicted, it will take some time for people to accept that. I think most people acknowledge Tavares, Matthews, Rielly, Andersen, Marner, etc. for the talented players they are at some level.

I liked doing this because Ive heard that after the 99 draft everyone went off on how long it took the Sedin twins to become higher end players and were considered disappointments as #2 and #3 overall picks.

And even more recently with Virtanen as a sure bust, a terrible player, not even AHLer, and now has turned into a solid middle 6 power forward. It took him time and hes still progressing

But everyone was positive of it

So i like to look at this recently and see peoples conclusions and predictions and see how we change our minds over the years since the draft

Of course is too soon, i think i mentioned it in every poll we did